Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan


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Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness
By: Dr. Hospicio Conanan, Director, Konsumo Dabaw

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Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan

  1. 1. Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness By Hospicio C. Conanan, Jr., DVM, MBM Garden Oasis, Davao City October 21, 2011
  2. 2. What is natural? <ul><li>It is clear that humanity is becoming more vulnerable to natural disasters as a result of its actions. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Natural” can be a misleading description for disasters such as the droughts, floods and cyclones which afflict much of the developing world. </li></ul><ul><li>Identifying the human-induced root causes of disasters, and advocating structural and political changes to combat them, is necessary to reduce the effects of disasters. </li></ul>
  3. 3. What is a natural disaster? <ul><li>A disaster is a serious disruption of the function of society, causing widespread human, material or environment losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope on its own resources. </li></ul><ul><li>Natural disasters are disruptions that emanate from nature but which may be aggravated by human activity, hence the acronym, Human Aggravated Natural Disasters (HAND). </li></ul>
  4. 4. A Note on Climate Change <ul><li>While there is overwhelming evidence that concentrations of CO 2 have changed drastically from the last 300 years, we should not discount the roles of solar cycles in climate change. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Man-Made Disasters <ul><li>Wars </li></ul><ul><li>Atomic Bombs at Nagasaki & Hiroshima </li></ul><ul><li>Union-Carbide Explosion in Bhopal, India </li></ul><ul><li>Intentional Burning of Forests </li></ul><ul><li>Mine Explosions </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorist Bombings </li></ul>
  6. 6. Common Natural Disasters <ul><li>Tropical Cyclones or Typhoons (Hurricanes) </li></ul><ul><li>Tsunamis </li></ul><ul><li>Floods </li></ul><ul><li>Droughts </li></ul><ul><li>Landslides and Rockslides </li></ul><ul><li>Earthquakes </li></ul><ul><li>Volcanic Eruptions </li></ul><ul><li>Pestilence </li></ul><ul><li>Forest Fires </li></ul>
  7. 7. Less Common Disasters <ul><li>Avalanche </li></ul><ul><li>Limnic Eruptions (CO 2 eruptions) </li></ul><ul><li>Blizzard </li></ul><ul><li>Meteor Strike (Impact Events) </li></ul><ul><li>Solar Flares </li></ul><ul><li>Heat waves </li></ul><ul><li>Hail Storms </li></ul><ul><li>Epidemics </li></ul>
  8. 8. Alarming Increases of Natural Disasters <ul><li>The number of natural disasters – floods, major storms and earthquakes has increased dramatically since 1950, and in particular during the last 20 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in frequency and destructiveness of natural hazards </li></ul><ul><li>90% of these are related to extreme weather conditions. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Victims of Natural Disasters <ul><li>Alongside the growth in world population has been an increase in people living in poverty. These people are among society’s most vulnerable. </li></ul><ul><li>When disasters strike, it is invariably the poor who suffer most, through loss of life and hard-won livelihoods. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Victims of Natural Disasters <ul><li>Didier Cherpitel, Secretary-General of the International Federation of Red Cross said: “ Disasters seek out the poor and ensure they stay poor. ” </li></ul><ul><li>The poor often the highest exposure to disasters and the lowest capacity to cope. </li></ul><ul><li>Moreover, poor people are more likely to die when disasters strike. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Victims of Natural Disasters <ul><li>Since 1991, half of all reported disasters happened in countries with medium levels of human development, but 98 per cent of those killed were in countries with low levels of human development. </li></ul><ul><li>In the 1970s, natural disasters claimed nearly 2 million lives. During the 1990s the number of casualties fell under 800,000. But those affected—by injury, homelessness or hunger—tripled to 2 billion </li></ul>
  12. 12. Cost of Disasters <ul><li>Natural catastrophes, most of which were weather related, cost an estimated $56 billion between January and September 2002 alone—a 93 per cent increase on 2001 figures. </li></ul><ul><li>Future scenarios envisage annual economic losses from natural disasters reaching $150 billion. Insured losses in 2002 totalled $9 billion, placing a serious burden in the insurance and finance sectors. </li></ul>
  13. 13. Economic Damage from Natural Disasters <ul><li>1960-1969 $ 40 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>1970-1979 $ 70 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>1980-1989 $ 120 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>1991 $ 44 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>Yearly Damage to Phil PhP 15 Billion </li></ul>
  14. 14. Effects of Disasters <ul><li>Disasters can wipe out years of development in hours. </li></ul><ul><li>Disasters can leave permanent psychological scars on Victims </li></ul><ul><li>Disasters can aggravate environmental problems </li></ul>.
  15. 15. Comparison of Average Casualty Rates <ul><li>22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed countries </li></ul><ul><li>145 die per disaster in countries with medium human development </li></ul><ul><li>1,052 people die per disaster in countries with low level of development </li></ul><ul><li>Red Cross Data </li></ul>
  16. 16. Record Holders <ul><li>According to Swiss Red Cross, the top three casualty disasters since 1970 (to 2002) were: </li></ul><ul><li>1970: Storm and floods in Bangladesh—300,000 victims. </li></ul><ul><li>1976: Earthquake in China—250,000 victims. </li></ul><ul><li>1991 Tropical Cyclone in Bangladesh—138,000 victims. </li></ul><ul><li>2005: Tsunami in Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand- 200,000 victims. </li></ul>
  17. 17. Highest Insurance Losses <ul><li>The three most costly disasters (in terms of insured losses) since 1970 (to 2002) were : </li></ul><ul><li>1992: Hurricane Andrew in the USA—US $20 billion </li></ul><ul><li>1994: Northridge earthquake in the USA—US $17 billion </li></ul><ul><li>1991: Typhoon Mireille in Japan—US $7.5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>2005: Hurricane Katrina – US$ 15 Billion </li></ul>
  18. 18. Natural Hazards <ul><li>Majority of Asia & Pacific developing countries are in the world’s hazard belts and are subject to storms, floods, droughts, earthquakes, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Major disasters that occur periodically are due to climatic & seismic factors. </li></ul><ul><li>Region has suffered 50 per cent of the world’s major natural disasters. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Natural Hazards <ul><li>Since 1990, the total number of deaths due to natural disasters in the region has exceeded 200,000 and the estimated damage to property over this period has been estimated at US$ 100 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability to disasters has increased due to the increased aggregation of people in urban centers, environmental degradation, and a lack of planning and preparedness. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Typhoons <ul><li>Common in the Asia-Pacific region. </li></ul><ul><li>Occur most frequently over the north-west Pacific, just east of the Philippines, during June and November </li></ul><ul><li>Average of 30 typhoons a year, i.e. about 38 per cent of the world total </li></ul>
  21. 21. Floods <ul><li>The most common climate-related disaster in the Asia-Pacific region and include seasonal floods, flash floods, urban floods. </li></ul><ul><li>In Bangladesh, as many as 80 million people are vulnerable to flooding each year. </li></ul><ul><li>In India, where a total of 40 million hectares is at risk from flooding each year, the average annual direct damage has been estimated at US$ 240 million, although this figure can increase to over US$ 1.5 billion with severe flood events </li></ul>
  22. 22. Droughts <ul><li>The impact of droughts differs widely between developed and developing countries because of such factors as water supply and water-use efficiency. </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of the estimated 500 million rural poor in the Asia-Pacific region are subsistence farmers occupying mainly rain-fed land. </li></ul><ul><li>The drought-prone countries in this region are Afghanistan, Iran, Myanmar, Pakistan, Nepal, India, Sri Lanka and parts of Bangladesh. </li></ul>
  23. 23. Droughts <ul><li>In India, about 33 per cent of the arable land is considered to be drought-prone (i.e. about 14 per cent of the total land area of the country) and a further 35 per cent can also be affected if rainfall is exceptionally low for extended periods. </li></ul><ul><li>Nepal has been subjected to severe droughts in the past. The Philippines, Thailand, Australia and the Pacific islands of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa also contain drought-prone areas. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Landslides <ul><li>Very common in the hills and mountainous parts of the Asia-Pacific region </li></ul><ul><li>Occur frequently in India, China, Nepal, Thailand and the Philippines. </li></ul><ul><li>In addition to the influence of topography, landslides are aggravated by human activities, such as deforestation, cultivation and construction, which destabilize the already fragile slopes. </li></ul><ul><li>The combined actions of natural (mostly heavy rainfall) and human-induced factors, as many as 12,000 landslides occur in Nepal each year </li></ul>
  25. 25. Earthquakes <ul><li>The Asia-Pacific region alone has recorded 70 per cent of the world’s earthquakes measuring 7 or more on the Richter scale, at an average rate of 15 events per year. </li></ul><ul><li>Countries of the region which are badly affected by earthquakes include Japan, the Philippines, India, Nepal, Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Pacific Islands. </li></ul><ul><li>Many of the countries in the region are located in the Pacific Ocean Seismic Zone or the Indian Ocean Seismic Zone. For example, 50–60 per cent of India is vulnerable to seismic activities of varying intensity. </li></ul>
  26. 26. Earthquakes <ul><li>The earthquake in Maharashtra State in Western India in September 1993 claimed over 12,000 lives.  </li></ul><ul><li>Worst earthquake was in Tangshan, China (240,000 lives, 28 July 1976) </li></ul><ul><li>About 80 per cent of China’s territorial area, 60 per cent of its large cities and 70 per cent of its urban areas with populations over 1 million, are located in seismic zones. </li></ul>
  27. 27. Tsunamis <ul><li>Tsunamis, tidal waves generated by earthquakes, affect many of the coastal areas of the region, including those of Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. The infamous Krakatau volcanic eruption during 1883 in Sunda Straits, Indonesia, generated a 35 metre high tsunami which caused 36,000 deaths and the tsunami of 17 August 1976 in the Moro Gulf area of the Philippines claimed another 8,000 lives </li></ul><ul><li>Deadly Tsunami of Japan is worst in recent history and videoed on real time. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Volcanoes <ul><li>Volcanoes, like earthquakes, are located mainly along the Pacific Rim. The countries at risk from volcanic eruptions include the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. </li></ul><ul><li>Those most frequently affected are Indonesia (129 active volcanoes), Japan (77) and the Philippines (21). </li></ul><ul><li>The eruptions of Mount Pinatubo in Central Luzon during the period 12–15 June 1991 affected about 1–2 million people, demolished the surrounding forests, caused massive siltation of rivers and coastal areas and deposited ash in surrounding areas and across continents. </li></ul>
  29. 29. Volcanoes <ul><li>In New Zealand, Mount Tarawera had a severe eruption in 1886, and the Ngauruhoe, which erupted in 1974, emits steam and vapor constantly. </li></ul><ul><li>In Papua New Guinea, the volcanic eruption in 1994 near the city of Rabaul damaged about 40 per cent of the houses in the area </li></ul>
  30. 30. UN Disaster Risk Index <ul><li>Introduced by United Nations Development Program in 2004 and demonstrates that populations in wealthy countries represent 15 percent of those exposed to natural disasters, but only 1.8 percent of those who are killed. </li></ul><ul><li>i.e., disasters are more deadly in poorer countries </li></ul>
  31. 31. UN Disaster Risk Index <ul><li>This index measures and compares physical exposure to hazard, vulnerability and risk between countries and demonstrates a clear link between human development and death rates following natural disasters. </li></ul><ul><li>The index provides the physical exposure levels and relative vulnerability for more than 200 countries and territories. These figures were determined by comparing the number of people exposed in relation to population and then mapping it in a geographical information system. </li></ul><ul><li>By evaluating the number of people killed annually from 1980 to 2000 with the number of exposed people, UNDP has been able to compare countries vulnerabilities to different natural hazards </li></ul>
  32. 32. UN Risk Index <ul><li>In Iran, for example (excluding the earthquake in December 2004) an average of 1,074 people were killed each year in earthquakes between 1980 and 2000, for every 1 million inhabitants exposed. </li></ul><ul><li>By comparison, 0.97 were killed each year per 1 million exposed in the United States. In other words, the relative vulnerability of Iranians to earthquake is over 1000 times greater that the relative vulnerability of Americans and over 100 times greater than the relative vulnerability of the Japanese. </li></ul>
  33. 33. Earthquake <ul><li>Approximately 130 million are exposed per year. </li></ul><ul><li>High vulnerability to earthquakes was found in countries such as Iran, Afghanistan and India. </li></ul><ul><li>Other medium development countries with sizeable urban populations such as Turkey and the Russian Federation were also found to have high levels of vulnerability, as well as Armenia (highest on the relative vulnerability list). </li></ul>
  34. 34. Typhoons <ul><li>Up to 119 million people are exposed periodically, and some exposed more than four times a year. </li></ul><ul><li>High levels of vulnerability were found in Honduras and Nicaragua (top two on the list), both of which had experienced a catastrophic disaster during the period 1980-2000. </li></ul><ul><li>Other countries with substantial populations on coastal plains were found to be highly vulnerable (Bangladesh and Vietnam). </li></ul><ul><li>Countries with similar exposure to cyclones were found to have different levels of relative vulnerability. </li></ul><ul><li>In Haiti, 13 people per million inhabitants exposed were killed each year compared with 0.16 in Cuba from 1980-2000. </li></ul>
  35. 35. Floods <ul><li>196 million people in more than 90 countries are annually exposed. High vulnerability was identified in a wide range of countries and is likely to be aggravated by global climate change. </li></ul><ul><li>In Venezuela (topping the list for floods), high vulnerability was due to a single catastrophic event. Other countries with high vulnerability to floods included Somalia, Morocco, and Bhutan. Low GDP per capita, low local density of population and high physical exposure were associated with high risk to floods. </li></ul><ul><li>Although capturing widespread attention in recent years, Germany has very low relative human vulnerability to floods. For example 0.25 people were killed each year per 1 million exposed in Germany, compared with 67 in Mozambique from 1980-2000 . </li></ul>
  36. 36. Drought <ul><li>Over 220 million people are annually exposed. </li></ul><ul><li>African states were shown to have the highest vulnerability to drought. 796.77 per 1 million lives were claimed by drought in Africa, while only 0.04 per 1 million died in Europe, almost a ratio of 20,000:1 </li></ul><ul><li>The study found that drought would lead to famine more quickly in connection with armed conflict, internal population displacement, HIV/AIDS, poor governance and economic crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>Desertification is increasing worldwide, especially in Africa. </li></ul>
  37. 37. Earthquake Risk <ul><li>There is a strong correlation between earthquake risk and rapid urban growth, typified by rapidly urbanizing medium development countries. </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid urban growth is often associated with a lack of application of appropriate building standards or land use planning, and the deterioration of older densely packed inner city areas – all factors that increase earthquake risk </li></ul>
  38. 38. Typhoon Risk <ul><li>This risk is strongly identified with countries of large predominantly rural populations and with low ranking on the Human Development Index. </li></ul><ul><li>Rural housing is less resistant to high winds than urban housing, and emergency services, disaster preparedness and early warning are usually weaker or non-existent in rural areas of poorer countries. </li></ul>
  39. 39. Flood Risk <ul><li>Countries with low GDP per capita, low densities of population (in flood prone areas) and high numbers of exposed people are most at risk from floods. </li></ul><ul><li>Mortality was higher in countries with sparsely populated, poor rural areas where disaster preparedness and early warning is non-existent and where health coverage is usually weak or not easily accessible. </li></ul><ul><li>In such areas, people have less possibility to evacuate from flood prone areas and are more vulnerable to death through flood related diseases. </li></ul>
  40. 40. Natural Disasters & Climate Change <ul><li>Changes in Hydrologic cycles, e.g., droughts and excessive rain </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in intensity of storms and cyclones </li></ul><ul><li>Effects of Increase in global temperature </li></ul>
  41. 41. Government Agencies for Disasters <ul><li>India - Cabinet Committee on Natural Calamities (CCNC) </li></ul><ul><li>Bangladesh - Natural Disaster Prevention Council </li></ul><ul><li>Sri-Lanka - Cabinet Sub-Committee to examine floods, cyclones, landslides and soil erosion; </li></ul><ul><li>Myanmar - Relief and Resettlement Department under the Ministry of Social Welfare </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia - National Coordination Board for Natural Disaster Preparedness and Relief </li></ul><ul><li>China - Inter-ministerial co-ordination committee in the People’s Republic </li></ul><ul><li>Papua New Guinea - National Disaster and Emergency Services Department </li></ul><ul><li>Phil. - National Disaster Coordination Council </li></ul>
  42. 42. Disaster Preparedness <ul><li>Corrective Measures </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptive Measures </li></ul>
  43. 43. Corrective Measures <ul><li>Main goal is reduction of carbon emission and greenhouse gases </li></ul><ul><li>International Agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal Protocol aim to address this </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative Technologies to fossil-fuel economy </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Sequestration </li></ul>
  44. 44. Adaptive Measures <ul><li>Involves changes in policies, lifestyles </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in House Designs </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in Consumption patterns </li></ul><ul><li>Measures will be specific to sectors </li></ul>
  45. 45. Examples of Adaptive Measures in Agriculture <ul><li>Use of Heat- & Drought-Resistant Varieties, i.e., use of new breeds </li></ul><ul><li>Use of Late-Maturing varieties </li></ul><ul><li>Soil-Conservation Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Switching cropping sequences and sowing schedules </li></ul>
  46. 46. Adaptive and Corrective Measures <ul><li>World and Government Policies and Initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Individual Initiatives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lifestyle Changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driving Changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption Patterns </li></ul></ul>
  47. 47. Winners & Losers <ul><li>Countries in Higher latitudes will most likely benefit in Agriculture, while lower latitudes will lose. </li></ul><ul><li>Heating of Arctic will benefit some and negatively impact most </li></ul><ul><li>Most of the world will however, be losers. </li></ul>
  48. 48. Other Issues <ul><li>Global Cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change & Adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Issues of Sustainability </li></ul>
  49. 49. With Global Warming… <ul><li>We manage the inevitable </li></ul><ul><li>The inevitable manages our lives </li></ul>
  50. 50. <ul><li>Thank You! </li></ul>