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Oracle Crystal Ball Screens


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Screen shots showing Oracle Crystal Ball for Monte Carlo Simulation and Solution Optimization in Excel.

Published in: Technology
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Oracle Crystal Ball Screens

  1. 1. <Insert Picture Here>Oracle Crystal Ball
  2. 2. Three Types of Analysis Predictive modeling (forecasting) analyzes current and historical facts to make predictions about future events Enhance the accuracy of your predictions Risk and scenario modeling (simulation) models future possible states to derive the likelihood of desired future state and the influence of the key drivers, and quantifies the risk in each of the scenarios under consideration Gain insight to the probability of outcomes Decision modeling (optimization) finds the best settings for the controllable key drivers to improve the likelihood of reaching the preferred future state Quickly identify the best strategies
  3. 3. How to model uncertainty in Excel and find optimal solutions
  4. 4. Simulation (of a Fluid Pump) Crystal Ball is an extra tab in Excel Decisions: inputs we control Assumptions: uncertain input values Forecasts: simulation results (formulas). Cost and Flow Rate
  5. 5. Simulation Define distribution for each Assumption (manual or automatic)
  6. 6. Simulation Run thousands of trials in seconds Trials pick random values for each Assumption, obeying Distributions Each result plotted on the Forecast distribution Probability of any given Flow Rate now known for standard design
  7. 7. Optimization GOAL: Design pump at lowest cost with acceptable flow rate
  8. 8. Optimization Optimizer finds combination of Decision Variables that give optimum result (lowest cost with acceptable flow)
  9. 9. Example Applications
  10. 10. Logistical Analysis
  11. 11. Engineering Design Analysis
  12. 12. Cost Versus Quality Analysis (1.72, $3.44) (1.35, $2.55) (0.92, $1.62) (0.59, $0.99) Trade-off Curve between Quality and Unit Cost.
  13. 13. Predicted Reliability
  14. 14. Planning and Budgeting Shows Crystal Ball embedded in Hyperion Planning