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Smartare företag
                             - smartare planet




 二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers   Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers
                         Stockholm 2011, 27 Oktober 2011
1


Planets available        二十一世纪新前线
                        21st Century Frontiers
9 000 000 000


Number of people 2050                    二十一世纪新前线
                                        21st Century Frontiers
0


Time left before we need action        二十一世纪新前线
                                      21st Century Frontiers
1.   Var är vi?

2.   Hjältar och ICT ett nytt århundrande

3.   Att ta ledningen inte stå och titta på

4.   Idéer

5.   Möjliga steg framåt




                                               二十一世纪新前线
                                              21st Century Frontiers
Adbusters    二十一世纪新前线
            21st Century Frontiers
Var är vi?
     Vid slutet av många vägar

         1.       There are planetary boundaries. And
                  many of them have been crossed.
         2.       The ecosystems have started to
                  collapse and conflicts are increasing.
         3.       Political and scientific agreement that
                  we need to reduce our impact by a
                  factor five/80% as soon as possible
                  (incremental improvements are not
                  enough).




The Stockholm Resilience Centre                              二十一世纪新前线
Global Footprint Network
IPCCC
                                                            21st Century Frontiers
http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx    二十一世纪新前线
                                     21st Century Frontiers
Transformative solutions
     Why they are so important




                                                                                          Transformative solutions




Transformative Solution Leadership                                                                                    二十一世纪新前线
http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf
                                                                                                                     21st Century Frontiers
Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness




                                  SWEDEN




http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/             二十一世纪新前线
                                                 21st Century Frontiers
Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness




                                        www.gesi.org
http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/                   二十一世纪新前线
                                                       21st Century Frontiers
Vart våra pengar går
     Vi gör saker utan IT = Vi förstör planeten




http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/full_list/                                       二十一世纪新前线
http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LSBNLU6JIJUP01-2OHJH7KLQM3EO61EC64KRGFLME   21st Century Frontiers
Heroes and ICT in
  the 21 st century
1. Var är vi
     Vid början på många nya vägar


                              1771-                           Two different phases of each technological revolution
                              The industrial
                              revolution                        INSTALLATION                 DEPLOYMENT

                              1829-
                              Steam, coal, iron
                              & railways
                                                                                   Turning
                              1875-                                                 point
                              Steel & heavy
                              engineering

                              1908-
                              Automobile, oil,
                              mass production                     More efficiently          Applying paradigm to
                                                               solving old problems       innovate across society
                              1971-                            - winners among old            – new winners
                                                                      players                                         Time
                              IT &
                                                                 20-30 years
                              telecommunication

Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez,                                                      二十一世纪新前线
Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex                                                                   21st Century Frontiers
Being a ICT company in the 21st century




               ACT 1
             The Crime


 The scientific discussion 1900-1962 =>
                                           二十一世纪新前线
                                          21st Century Frontiers
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
ACT 2
        The Villain


The pollution debate 1972-2008 =>
                                     二十一世纪新前线
                                    21st Century Frontiers
Hunting the villain
     What is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problem
     or is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad)


                                     Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)




                     From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/                                                                二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                                               21st Century Frontiers
ACT 3
                                      The Hero


                    The solution era 2009/10 =>
http://www.transformative-step.net/                二十一世纪新前线
                                                  21st Century Frontiers
二十一世纪新前线
21st Century Frontiers
1. The demand
     What is happening
  Few understand how much money that must change direction
  New ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged
  and new business successes welcomed.




         $350 trillion
                    to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures
                    over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as
                    mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP
Booz and Co. 2010                                                                      二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                      21st Century Frontiers
1. The demand
    What is happening


                                        Long-term GDP trends
                                                      Goldman Sachs


               50000                                                                                 China
                                                                                                     US
               40000
                                                                                                     Japan
               30000
       $USbn




                                                                                                     Germany
               20000                                                                                 UK
                                                                                                     France
               10000
                                                                                                     Italy
                   0                                                                                 India
                        2000
                               2005
                                      2010
                                             2015
                                                    2020
                                                           2025
                                                                  2030
                                                                         2035
                                                                                2040
                                                                                       2045
                                                                                              2050
                                                                                                     EU-4



Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs                                                             二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                                              21st Century Frontiers
1. The demand
What is happening




                     二十一世纪新前线
                    21st Century Frontiers
Transformative ICT solutions




http://www.transformative-applications.net/UnderstandInfrastructure/index.html    二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                 21st Century Frontiers
BIG PROBLEM
    Too good in too many areas




http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463    二十一世纪新前线
                                   21st Century Frontiers
Reading with dead forests




http://www.transformative-applications.net/UnderstandInfrastructure/index.html    二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                 21st Century Frontiers
Reading with e-readers




http://www.transformative-applications.net/UnderstandInfrastructure/index.html    二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                 21st Century Frontiers
Taking the
      lead
Working as a ICT team in Croatia




                                    二十一世纪新前线
                                   21st Century Frontiers
Being a ICT company in the 21st century: Solution

                         Solution Company’s/Sectors
                         own emissions
                         (the ICT sector)




                                The emissions the solution
                                company/sector can help reduce
                                (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030)




                                                                       二十一世纪新前线
                                                                      21st Century Frontiers
Being a ICT company in the 21st century: From 0




                                                   二十一世纪新前线
                                                  21st Century Frontiers
Being a ICT company in the 21st century: From 0


  1992                      2012
   100                  5 000

   1                    10 000 000 000

   0                    1 100 000 000 000

                                                   二十一世纪新前线
                                                  21st Century Frontiers
illustration: A global map of scientific collaboration between researchers,         二十一世纪新前线
published 23rd of February 2011 by Olivier H. Beauchesne
http://olihb.com/2011/01/23/map-of-scientific-collaboration-between-researchers/
                                                                                   21st Century Frontiers
Being a ICT company in the 21st century: to all

The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things
An infrastructure connecting not only people, but things
(>50 billions 2020)




                                                            二十一世纪新前线
                                                           21st Century Frontiers
Ideas for the
         21 st

    Century
From problems to new solutions




     Incremental improvements   Technology   Transformative
   in existing systems             leaps        solutions
                                                               二十一世纪新前线
                                                              21st Century Frontiers
Thresholds for transformative change

Relevance/how easy
different solutions are to                    The opportunity hook
implement                                     Threshold levels for transformative change




Relevance for old ways
                                                               Threshold level
of providing a service
Relevance for
transformative ways of
providing a service
Difficulty to implement
solution




                             0-25   25-75                           75-90                  90-100
                                     % Change needed compared with baseline
Using a 9 billion filters




                             二十一世纪新前线
                            21st Century Frontiers
Long-tail and Diversity
without “Cyberbalkanization”



                               The long-tail




                                                二十一世纪新前线
                                               21st Century Frontiers
Mobile apps




                                        Investor

                      Networker                         Parent




              Voter                                              Consumer

                             Human
              House owner                                    Employee



                             Designer         Entrepreneur




                                                                         二十一世纪新前线
                                                                        21st Century Frontiers
Using a 9 billion filters

  A unique interface


                                                      Investor

                                    Networker                         Parent




                            Voter                                              Consumer

                                           Human
                            House owner                                    Employee



                                           Designer         Entrepreneur




                                                                                           二十一世纪新前线
                                                                                          21st Century Frontiers
Possible steps
      forward




                  二十一世纪新前线
                 21st Century Frontiers
Strukturer, steg för steg I tröga organisationer


  1. Recognising the role of smart and transformative ICT solutions
     (measure the times it is mentioned)
  2. Appointing a person/team responsible for transformative ICT
     solutions
  3. Conducting studies that measure the impact of transformative ICT
     solutions (benchmark yourself/Sweden)
  4. Setting emission reduction, investment and job creation targets for
     transformative ICT solutions (in individual areas to begin with and
     then aggregated targets for clusters of solutions);
  5. Ensuring that key areas transformative ICT solutions are integrated in
     all significant policy documents
  6. Open up for innovation and focus on transformative solutions




                                                                           二十一世纪新前线
                                                                          21st Century Frontiers
KUL

  1. Tänk på vad ni redan gör!
      Njut av att vara smart, gör snabba kalkyler
  2. Participate
      Transformative step of the day, följ kul saker på Twitter/RSS
  3. Use the nine billion filter
      Help drive innovation and export of smart services
  4. Legacy
      Set up a transformative teams:
       • Digital Alexandria
       • 21st Century Office
       • Plus Buildings
       • 24/7 Health
  5. Set a planet positive target
      Help the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of
      the world…


                                                                            二十一世纪新前线
                                                                           21st Century Frontiers
谢谢!
Sustainable development
“Det finns saker man
måste göra, även om
det är farligt. Annars är
man ingen människa,
utan bara en liten lort.”

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111027 Cio Kista Small

  • 1. Smartare företag - smartare planet 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers Dennis Pamlin, Founder and CEO, 21st Century Frontiers Stockholm 2011, 27 Oktober 2011
  • 2.
  • 3. 1 Planets available 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 4. 9 000 000 000 Number of people 2050 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 5. 0 Time left before we need action 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 6. 1. Var är vi? 2. Hjältar och ICT ett nytt århundrande 3. Att ta ledningen inte stå och titta på 4. Idéer 5. Möjliga steg framåt 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 7. Adbusters 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 8. Var är vi? Vid slutet av många vägar 1. There are planetary boundaries. And many of them have been crossed. 2. The ecosystems have started to collapse and conflicts are increasing. 3. Political and scientific agreement that we need to reduce our impact by a factor five/80% as soon as possible (incremental improvements are not enough). The Stockholm Resilience Centre 二十一世纪新前线 Global Footprint Network IPCCC 21st Century Frontiers
  • 9. http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 10. Transformative solutions Why they are so important Transformative solutions Transformative Solution Leadership 二十一世纪新前线 http://transformative-solutions.net/2.0/files/material/LCL_Transformative_Solutions.pdf 21st Century Frontiers
  • 11. Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness SWEDEN http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 12. Sweden in a dangerous space of boringness www.gesi.org http://www.global-ict-leadership.net/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 13. Vart våra pengar går Vi gör saker utan IT = Vi förstör planeten http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/full_list/ 二十一世纪新前线 http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LSBNLU6JIJUP01-2OHJH7KLQM3EO61EC64KRGFLME 21st Century Frontiers
  • 14. Heroes and ICT in the 21 st century
  • 15. 1. Var är vi Vid början på många nya vägar 1771- Two different phases of each technological revolution The industrial revolution INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT 1829- Steam, coal, iron & railways Turning 1875- point Steel & heavy engineering 1908- Automobile, oil, mass production More efficiently Applying paradigm to solving old problems innovate across society 1971- - winners among old – new winners players Time IT & 20-30 years telecommunication Based on Ericsson material quoting Professor Carlota Perez, 二十一世纪新前线 Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex 21st Century Frontiers
  • 16. Being a ICT company in the 21st century ACT 1 The Crime The scientific discussion 1900-1962 => 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 18. ACT 2 The Villain The pollution debate 1972-2008 => 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 19. Hunting the villain What is called “green” today is often either mainly moving the problem or is not enough (not always bad, but not enough and often actually bad) Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1) From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 20. ACT 3 The Hero The solution era 2009/10 => http://www.transformative-step.net/ 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 22. 1. The demand What is happening Few understand how much money that must change direction New ways to provide the solutions we need must be acknowledged and new business successes welcomed. $350 trillion to be invested in construction and use of urban infrastructures over the next 30 years to provide basic services such as mobility, heat, lighting, etc. 7 times current annual GDP Booz and Co. 2010 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 23. 1. The demand What is happening Long-term GDP trends Goldman Sachs 50000 China US 40000 Japan 30000 $USbn Germany 20000 UK France 10000 Italy 0 India 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 EU-4 Goldman Sachs: The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 24. 1. The demand What is happening 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 26. BIG PROBLEM Too good in too many areas http://www.pamlin.net/new/?p=463 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 27. Reading with dead forests http://www.transformative-applications.net/UnderstandInfrastructure/index.html 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 29. Taking the lead
  • 30. Working as a ICT team in Croatia 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 31. Being a ICT company in the 21st century: Solution Solution Company’s/Sectors own emissions (the ICT sector) The emissions the solution company/sector can help reduce (The ICT sector 15 to >30% by 2030) 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 32. Being a ICT company in the 21st century: From 0 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 33. Being a ICT company in the 21st century: From 0 1992 2012 100 5 000 1 10 000 000 000 0 1 100 000 000 000 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 34. illustration: A global map of scientific collaboration between researchers, 二十一世纪新前线 published 23rd of February 2011 by Olivier H. Beauchesne http://olihb.com/2011/01/23/map-of-scientific-collaboration-between-researchers/ 21st Century Frontiers
  • 35. Being a ICT company in the 21st century: to all The 21st century infrastructure: The internet of things An infrastructure connecting not only people, but things (>50 billions 2020) 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 36. Ideas for the 21 st Century
  • 37. From problems to new solutions Incremental improvements Technology Transformative in existing systems leaps solutions 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 38. Thresholds for transformative change Relevance/how easy different solutions are to The opportunity hook implement Threshold levels for transformative change Relevance for old ways Threshold level of providing a service Relevance for transformative ways of providing a service Difficulty to implement solution 0-25 25-75 75-90 90-100 % Change needed compared with baseline
  • 39. Using a 9 billion filters 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 40. Long-tail and Diversity without “Cyberbalkanization” The long-tail 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 41. Mobile apps Investor Networker Parent Voter Consumer Human House owner Employee Designer Entrepreneur 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 42. Using a 9 billion filters A unique interface Investor Networker Parent Voter Consumer Human House owner Employee Designer Entrepreneur 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 43. Possible steps forward 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 44. Strukturer, steg för steg I tröga organisationer 1. Recognising the role of smart and transformative ICT solutions (measure the times it is mentioned) 2. Appointing a person/team responsible for transformative ICT solutions 3. Conducting studies that measure the impact of transformative ICT solutions (benchmark yourself/Sweden) 4. Setting emission reduction, investment and job creation targets for transformative ICT solutions (in individual areas to begin with and then aggregated targets for clusters of solutions); 5. Ensuring that key areas transformative ICT solutions are integrated in all significant policy documents 6. Open up for innovation and focus on transformative solutions 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 45. KUL 1. Tänk på vad ni redan gör! Njut av att vara smart, gör snabba kalkyler 2. Participate Transformative step of the day, följ kul saker på Twitter/RSS 3. Use the nine billion filter Help drive innovation and export of smart services 4. Legacy Set up a transformative teams: • Digital Alexandria • 21st Century Office • Plus Buildings • 24/7 Health 5. Set a planet positive target Help the planet get what it needs, reduce the footprint in the rest of the world… 二十一世纪新前线 21st Century Frontiers
  • 47. “Det finns saker man måste göra, även om det är farligt. Annars är man ingen människa, utan bara en liten lort.”

Editor's Notes

  1. Reflecting of our image and overall opportunites.Start with buzz groups. What does this mean to them – opportunities, risks, expectations