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Euro debt crises come and go
True megatrends reshape our societies for good
Climate change and environmental sustainability
– A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on emission control and adaptation
to climate change
Global demographic change
– The average Finnish age is about 40 years
• Half of Finnish voters are pensioners - a retired nation
– In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults
• Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age
Global networking and dependency
– The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers
New technologies are shaping our societies
– ICT now penetrates our societies
Dependency ratio collapses … right about now
People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people
0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds
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E.g. robot baby seals were used to comfort elderly
Japanese who had lost everything in the tsunami
(NHK Video screenshot)
Helsinki city is testing care robots for the elderly
Center for Intelligent Robotics KIST, Korea.
Sea levels are not starting to rise
Global warming art.
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How high do you live?
Global warming art.
Post glacial rebound in Southern Finland.
With current usage we run out of (New Scientist)
indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade
silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade
Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century
New technologies influence demand for raw materials
In 2003 a kilogram of indium cost $60, in 2006 $1000
Fuel cells require loads of platinum
– Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers
– 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum
Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium
China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines
– The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines
Economic growth has been based on expanding consumption of
raw materials and energy
Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity
China is already buying and storing electronic waste
Finland was one of the winners of globalisation
Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the Future…
• from slowly growing expensive trees?
• far away from still growing paper markets?
• with Finnish labour costs?
Verace Sustainability Report 2006
The World in 2050’s
GDP billion US$
Goldman Sachs, ECS Research
• Asia returns to the centre of the World
• Europe misses its chance to stay a world power
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Waves of technology
GNP Biotech ?? yrs
Speed of change 25 yrs
Industrial You are here!
Agricultural 250 yrs
Government and education have trouble keeping up.
Forecasting is difficult
”I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, IBM CEO ,1943.
”Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics magazine on development of science, 1949.
”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977
"You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active
trollers on the Internet."
Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989
"The Internet? Bah!"
Newsweek headline, 1995
Science fiction has often been more accurate than
respectable futures research
True Names, Vernor Vinge.
E.g. ”Brain pacer”
Science fiction has inspired developers of ICT
(True24.9.2009 Neuromancer, …)
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Information is the key mean, object and
result of culture and economy
Emphasises the role of technology as definer os socety: ”The code is law.”
Technology is omnipresent and transparent to its users.
Emphasises the role of social networks and networking.
Post industrial society with overlapping meanings and perspecives.
ICT combined with nano, bio, gene and cognitive technologies
Evolution of Internet
1980’s: Internet is a network of computers
Still the technological definition of Internet: Network of computers using the
1990’s: Internet is a network of information
Ted Nelson’s Xanadu
WWW = URL addres & HTTP protocol & HTML language
2000’s: Internet is a network of people
CC 2.0 Generic Attribution Robert Scolbe
Networking and sharing
Tim Berners-Leen WWW-palvelin.
2010’s: Internet becomes a
network of things
The next 50 years
Industrial revolution had two stages
The first ~50 years the technology evolved
The next ~50 years that technology reshaped
the basic structures of our societies
Now ICT has penetrated our society in ~50 years
The structures created by industrial revolution are crumbling
The pace of technological and societal change is rapidly increasing
It took 100-120 yrs to build the global wired telephone network.
It took 10 yrs to build a corresponding global wireless phone network
It took 2-3 years for social media to become a global phenomenon
In ten years time anything can be in everyday use even if it has not been
A child going to school this autumn is going to be working in the 2070’s.
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The pace of change
has not slowed since
US Army Photo
Era of sharing
Information is like money. It creates new
information and benefits society only when
it is used and invested.
Money locked in a money bin is as useless
ase information stored in a closed database.
Governments are opening their databases
Improves government transparency and exposes corruption
Increases growth of data intensive service SME’s
Enhances cross-government data use
– In EU the direct savings potential is 40 billion €/y and indirect 100 billion
”Knowldedge is not power anymore, sharing of knowledge is.”
– Teemu Arina
“The best way to get value from data is to give it away”
– Neelie Kroes, Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner of the Digital Agenda
Open data: a public service created by active citizens:
Combines data scraped from labour office web pages with map data and public transport timetables.
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Free is the new black
The most popular mobile game in the world is free
Over one billion downloads
The most popular search engines, map services and email services are free
But Facebook and Google are not charities!
The most popular Internet multi player game is free
Over 35 million registered players
One of the most awarded comics in the world is free
E.g. Hugo in 2009, 2010 and 2011
The most watched Finnish movie is free
3,5 – 4 million downloads in 2 months
Technology has always improved productivity and cut prices,
now almost to nothing …
Free is a new way to make money!
Data, software and data processing are being
tranferred from own servers to the cloud ...
Capital not tied to own hardware
– Enables flexible adaptation and development
Optimises computing power and resource use
– E.g. The proposed U.K G-Cloud was estimated to save CC SA Attribution Sugree
£3,2 billion per year
... and becoming on-demand services
When data and applications are in different clouds and you control the API’s you
can tender and change service providers
The cloud does not respect geographic border, but borders do matter
Client, service provider, data and porcessing may be in different countries
– E.g. Consumer protection, data security and privacy legislation are different
– Server location determines juridistiction
International rules do not exist and even national laws are outdated
Contracts and EULA’s
E.g. Cloud television
Broadcast-television is becoming an on-demand
In 2010 NetFlix created 20% of US Internet traffic
Finnish law carefully avoids the subject of Internet
Control transfers from TV companies to viewers
Broadcast channels are left with news and current
Television companies and authorities react slowly
New companies are ready to take over the TV market
Old IPR contracts do not cover ipTV
Pirates’ P2P networks are still popular with better
selection, quality and service than legal content
Internet has already replaced television
Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV
Watcher controlled ipTV
E-readers replace papers and books
Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores
Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years
Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.
Mail delivery is ending
Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing
CC 3.0 SA BY Sebastien Delorme
• Digital divide becomes activity divide
• ICT gives active people new means to be
even more active members of the society
• Gives passive people new means to be even more passive
• Digital culture is easily overlooked
• A whole Finnish generation was in Habbo Hotel and IRC Gallery before “old
media” and society caught on social media
• Over 100.000 Finns were playing Internet poker before society took notice.
• What cultural change is going on at the moment without us noticing it?
• Technological imperative
• Everybody has to be able to use ICT in order to be a member of society
• ICT and digital services have to available, accessible and usable
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CC 2.0 Share-alike Attribution Henri Bergius
Revolution in 160 characters
Spontaneous self managed civil CC 2.0 Generic Vincent Diamante
movements sprout in days
Viral revolution: An SMS ”Go 2 EDSA. Wear Blck” was partly
responsible to Estrada’s resignation in 2001
Finnish copyright law demonstrations
Politicians and authorities do not know how to handle
leaderless self organising “mobs”
“Who the f*** is organising this?”
Social media facilitated Arab Spring.
Frustrated digital vigilantes
A culture of shared values, methods and ethos instead of organisation
Attacking corporations, authorities, politicians and crime cartels
No legal protection or provision for complaint
CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve
Digitalization penetrates work
”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.”
”It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to drive harvesters.”
New competency requirements Program ming
Life management skills
Hot to fit work, family and life together
Competency management skills
Life long updating of competencies
Knowledge management skills
Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society
What about ICT competencies?
ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills
Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social
media and gaming
CC 2.0 Share alike Attribution Deryck Hodge
Information society citizen skills
Basic ICT use skills
Lacking in every age group
Media reading and writing skills
Everybody can be a mass media
Journalistic principles and amateur media
Data security skills
You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more
Digital social capital
How to be civil in social media
How and where do we learn these skills?
Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school
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The fun times are only beginning
ICT goes to cloud and becomes an
Consumer protection, data protection, legal protection
Augmented reality becomes everyday reality
Mobile devices are forerunners, next cars
Garage hackers are back
Current market leaders were once in garages, why not the next ones
ICT evolves and becomes cheaper
3D-printing brings manufacturing to homes
NFC revolutionalises payment industry like rfid did
Technological breakthroughs on other sciences
Neuroscience, bio- and genescience, nano technology, …
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