Teaches critical thinking skills to high school and college students using visuals and embedded student questions Dean Berry mvca123@yahoo.com

1. Logical Fallacies: The Problems
with Correlational Data

2. The Correlation Fallacy
A Common Core Lesson
By
Dean Berry, Ed. D.
Gregg Berry, B. A.
Common Core Curriculum Solutions
www.commoncorecurriculum.info

3. Common Core Reading Standards
Delineate and evaluate the argument and
specific claims in a text, assessing whether
the reasoning is sound and the evidence is
relevant and sufficient; recognize when
irrelevant evidence is introduced.

4. Common Core Speaking
and Listening Standards
Engage effectively in a range of
collaborative discussions (one-on-
one, in groups, and teacher-led) with
diverse partners on topics, texts,
and issues, building on others’ ideas
and expressing their own clearly.

5. Common Core Speaking
and Listening Standards
Delineate a speaker’s argument
and specific claims, evaluating
the soundness of the reasoning
and relevance and sufficiency of
the evidence and identifying when
irrelevant evidence is introduced.

6. Reading with Your Eyes and Your Brain
Skillful readers learn how to read persuasive or
opinionated text with a very critical eye. They
realize that the author’s purpose is to convince the
reader to believe what the author is saying and to
consider the arguments given as valid even if they
violate logical reasoning and lack supporting
evidence. The author’s motive may be to get the
reader to buy something, vote a certain way,
change an attitude, or behave differently.

7. • In order to avoid manipulation by the author,
good readers learn how to detect poor
reasoning and faulty arguments. They are
able to identify the various logical fallacies
such as begging the question, strawman,
overgeneralization, correlation errors, and
others. During this lesson, we will study the
problem of cause and effect correlation
fallacies.

8. Let’s take a closer look at cause and effect.
What is cause?
Cause is defined as the reason, motive,
purpose or justification for an event or
situation.
Example: The cause of success may be hard
work, perseverance, careful planning,
correct decision making, and other factors.

9. What is Effect?
Effect is the consequence,
action, or event.
Example: The effect of being
thrifty is to have savings.

10. The why and what of cause and effect

11. What do thunderclouds cause?

12. Every effect must have a cause!

13. Use your own paper and put the causes on the left
side and the results(or effects) on the right side.
• 1. We received seven inches of rain in four hours A. the light came on
• 2. Many buffalo were killed B. A basketball player was traveling.
• 3. Many deaths to wildlife C. Buffalo almost became extinct.
• 4. The boss was busy D. Many deaths to wildlife
• 5. I flipped the light switch on E. I have 5 cavities.
• 6. The referee called a penalty. F. The doctor put it in a cast.
• 7. Childhood obesity G. The streets were snow-packed and icy. - He broke his
arm.
• 8. Sedentary lifestyle H. The underpass was flooded.
• 9. Her secretary took a message I. Smoking cigarettes
• 10. Lung cancer J. An oil spill

14. Label the cause and effect in each sentence.
• 1. When water is heated, the molecules move quickly, therefore the water boils.
• 2. A tornado blew the roof off the house, and as a result, the family had to find
another place to live.
• 3. Because the alarm was not set, we were late for work.
• 4. The moon has gravitational pull, consequently the oceans have tides.
• 5. Since school was canceled, we went to the mall.
• 6. John made a rude comment, so Elise hit him.
• 7. When the ocean is extremely polluted, coral reefs die.
• 8. The meal we ordered was cheaper than expected, so we ordered dessert.
• 9. Since helium rises, a helium balloon floats.
• 10. There has been an increase in greenhouse gases, therefore global warming is
happening.

15. Label the cause and effect in each sentence.
• Some believe dinosaurs died out because a large meteor hit the earth.
• I had to get the mop since I spilled my juice.
• Tsunamis happen when tectonic plates shift.
• Fred was driving 75 in a 35 mile zone, therefore he got a speeding ticket.
• Because of changes in classifications, Pluto is no longer a planet.
• Maria didn’t follow the recipe correctly, so the cake did not come out as
expected.
• The weather forecast called for rain, so he took his umbrella.
• Because of a price increase, sales are down.
• Water is formed when two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom combine.
• The baby was crying, so Dad picked him up.
• I learned to play the drums quickly because I took lessons from a pro.

16. Correlation Implies Causation Fallacy
This is a fallacy in which the person making the
argument connects two events which happen
simultaneously or at the same rate and assumes
that one caused the other.
For example: “Every time it rains, there are many
accidents on the road. Therefore, driving in the
rain causes more accidents.” This may be true or
not true. This correlation does not prove that rain
causes more accidents on the road.

17. Example
Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated
with waking up with a headache.
Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes
headaches.

18. The prior example commits the correlation-implies-
causation fallacy, as it prematurely concludes that
sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. A
more plausible explanation is that both are caused
by a third factor, in this case going to bed when
overly exhausted, which thereby gives rise to a
correlation. So the conclusion is false.

19. Does correlation imply causation?
Many research studies are designed to see if one action,
such as eating a diet high in sugar and saturated fat, is
directly related to higher illness rates such as heart
disease. If the study shows that people who eat such a
diet have much higher rates of heart disease than people
who eat low sugar and low saturated fat diets, the
researchers may conclude that there is a high
correlation between the two events.

20. While such correlations suggest that one event
may cause the other, scientists cannot
conclude that high sugar and high fat diets
definitely cause heart disease. Correlations are not
direct proof of cause and effect.

21. Wow! Shark attacks and ice cream
sales are closely correlated.

22. The sun causes sun burns and ice cream
to melt. Therefore, sunburn causes ice
cream to melt. Is this a fallacy? Why?

23. Does this chart suggest a fallacy?
Why?

24. As ice cream sales increase,
the rate of drowning death
increases sharply.
Therefore, ice cream consumption
causes drowning or does it.
Examine this example of correlation fallacy.

25. Ice Cream Consumption Causes Drowning?
• The aforementioned example fails to recognize the
importance of time and temperature in relationship to
ice cream sales. Ice cream is sold during the
hot summer months at a much greater rate than
during colder times, and it is during these hot summer
months that people are more likely to engage in
activities involving water, such as swimming. The
increased drowning deaths are simply caused by
more exposure to water-based activities, not ice
cream. The stated conclusion is false.

26. Is it likely that organic food causes autism?
Are there any other reasons that both events
increased at a similar rate during the last 10 years?

27. Correlation does not imply causation is
a phrase used
in science and statistics to emphasize
that a correlation between two
variables does not necessarily mean
that one causes the other.

28. Correlation Fallacy Example
Young children who sleep with the light on are
much more likely to develop myopia in later life.
Therefore, sleeping with the light on causes myopia.
This is a scientific example that resulted from a study at
the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center. Published in
the May 13, 1999 issue ofNature,[5] the study received much
coverage at the time in the popular press.[6]

29. Myopia Study was Flawed
However, a later study at Ohio State University did not
find that infants sleeping with the light on caused the
development of myopia. It did find a strong link between
parental myopia and the development of child myopia,
also noting that myopic parents were more likely to leave
a light on in their children's bedroom. In this case, the
cause of both conditions is parental myopia, and the
above-stated conclusion is false.

30. Confusing association with causation
This is similar to the post-hoc fallacy in that it assumes cause and effect for two
variables simply because they occur together. This fallacy is often used to give a
statistical correlation a causal interpretation. For example, data shows that more
traffic accidents occur during the summer than during the spring. Since the
summer months are warmer than spring months, we conclude that warmer
weather causes more traffic accidents. However, these two events, warmer
weather and traffic accidents, are only associated with each other and the
months when they occur. This does not establish a cause and effect relationship.

31. Association is Not Causation
For example, during the 1990’s both religious attendance
and illegal drug use have been on the rise. It would be a
fallacy to conclude that therefore, religious attendance
causes illegal drug use. It is also possible that drug use
leads to an increase in religious attendance, or that both
drug use and religious attendance are increased by a
third variable, such as an increase in societal unrest. It is
also possible that both variables are independent of one
another, and it is mere coincidence that they are both
increasing at the same time

32. Is Correlational Research Always a Fallacy?
This fallacy, however, has a tendency to be abused, or
applied inappropriately, to deny all statistical evidence. In
fact, this constitutes a logical fallacy in itself, the denial
of causation. This abuse takes two basic forms. The first
is to deny the significance of correlations that are
demonstrated with prospective controlled data, such as
would be acquired during a clinical experiment.

33. Controlling the key variables produces the
most reliable data in a research study.
The problem with assuming cause and effect from mere
correlation is not that a causal relationship is impossible,
it’s just that there are other variables that must be
considered and not ruled out a-priori. A controlled trial,
however, by its design attempts to control for as many
variables as possible in order to maximize the probability
that a positive correlation is in fact due to a causation.

34. Does salary, job satisfaction, or years
employed have the most significant
effect on job performance?

35. What are some of the variables in a classroom
that can have an effect on student learning?
Turn to your neighbor
and make a list of
several variables that
you believe may have
a significant effect on
how much students
learn in class.

36. Does where a student sits in the
classroom have a high correlation with
the course grades he/she receives?
Use a piece of paper to list
where(front, middle, back) you usually
choose to sit in classrooms (when you
have a choice) and the
grades(approximate)that you usually
get in those classes. Do not share this
information with others. Do not put
your name on your paper. Fold your
paper in half and pass it forward. We
will tabulate the results and examine a
possible correlation.

37. The issue to be determined is whether
or not viewing nurse Killams’s videos
will result in higher grades for students.

38. Write a possible cause and effect statement
based on the independent variables and
dependent variable given below.

39. Use of correlation as scientific evidence
Much of scientific evidence is based upon a correlation of
variables that are observed to occur together. Scientists
are careful to point out that correlation does not
necessarily mean causation. The assumption that A
causes B simply because A correlates with B is often not
accepted as a legitimate form of argument.

40. Correlation data my be a valid argument.
However, sometimes people commit the opposite
fallacy – dismissing correlation entirely, as if it
does not suggest causation at all. This would
dismiss a large swath of important scientific
evidence. Since it may be difficult or ethically
impossible to run controlled double-blind studies,
correlational evidence from several different
angles may be the strongest causal evidence
available.

41. Correlational data may point
us in the right direction.
The combination of limited available methodologies with the
dismissing correlation fallacy has on occasion been used to
counter a scientific finding. For example, the tobacco
industry has historically relied on a dismissal of
correlational evidence to reject a link between tobacco and
lung cancer.

42. Correlation is a valuable type of scientific
evidence in fields such as medicine,
psychology, and sociology. But first,
correlations must be confirmed as real, and
then every possible causative relationship
must be systematically explored.

43. Pair Share
Let’s look at the issue of human longevity.
Think about why some people seem to live
much longer than other people. Meet in pairs or
small groups and make a list of factors that
might be involved with improving people’s life
span. Try to identify at least five factors that
might be involved. Report back to the class.

44. Class Discussion
Let’s design a correlational study to see
which of these factors may be highly
correlated to living a longer life. Select
three of the factors identified by the
class. Draw a cause and effect diagram
showing the relationship between the
three factors and the desired effect.

45. Create Some Research Data
We are going to make this activity a simulation since
we do not have the data that we need. The class will
vote on each factor and it’s effect on length of life.
Of course, this is just guesswork and not real data.
On a piece of paper, list the three factors and award
each one points(1-10)with ten meaning that you
believe that the factor is very highly correlated to
living a long life and one meaning that you believe
that the actor is much less important for human
longevity. Now let’s summarize all of our results and
write a correlation statement reflecting our data.

46. For example, heart disease may be caused by many
factors including lack of exercise, diabetes, obesity,
stress, cholesterol, and saturated fats. In fact, most
complex events like heart disease are difficult to study
because each possible causal factor has to be considered
a possible variable that can cause heart disease. If all of
the significant variables are considered in a research
study, the correlations of these variables with heart
disease can lead to powerful scientific information. In the
end, correlation can be used as important evidence for a
cause-and-effect relationship between a treatment and
benefit, a risk factor and a disease, or a social or
economic factor and various outcomes

47. Additional Common Core
Standards Covered

48. Reading Standards
Cite the textual evidence that
most strongly supports an
analysis of what the text says
explicitly as well as inferences
drawn from the text.

49. Writing Standards
Use words, phrases, and
clauses to create cohesion and
clarify the relationships among
claim(s), counterclaims,
reasons, and evidence.

50. 50
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