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Local Experienced Independent Spring Housing Briefing
Local Apex Home Loans, Inc  © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 ||  www.apexhomeloans.com <ul><li>La...
Apex Home Loans, Inc  © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 ||  www.apexhomeloans.com Experienced <ul>...
Independent Apex Home Loans, Inc  © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 ||  www.apexhomeloans.com <ul>...
Thank You  To Our Sponsors
Keynote Presentation by John McClain , George Mason Center for Regional Analysis
Apex Home Loans March 3, 2011 The Washington Area Economic Performance and  Outlook John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and ...
Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions  Sources: BEA, GMU Center fo...
U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % 2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013 Source: Global ...
ISM Manufacturing and  Non-Manufacturing Indices
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over-the-Year THOUSANDS Jan  = + 550 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 402 Feb-11
U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.0 % GI FCST 11 – 9.0 12 – 8.5 13 – 7.8 14 – 7.1 15 – 6.6
U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale) (000s) (000s)
L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Jan 2011 RECESSION  >  >  >
Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > > %
Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >
Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan-11
The Washington Economy
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change from Recession Start (12/07) (000s) Washington -22,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark,...
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Last 10 Years (000s) Washington  280,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center fo...
Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
000s Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data  Annual Month over Year 2008  2009  2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmar...
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Dec 09 – Dec 10  (000s) Washington + 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center...
Job Change by Sector Dec 2009 – Dec 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total  57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center ...
Annual Job Change District of Columbia 000s Annual Data  Annual Month over Year 2008  2009  2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Be...
Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data  Annual Month over Year 2008  2009  2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Bench...
Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland 000s Annual Data  Annual Month over Year 2008  2009  2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Bench...
9.2 – DC 9.1 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.7 – MSA 4.7 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2010 % US   9.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 5.7
Wages & Salaries Procurement Federal Spending By Type 1984 - 2009 $ Billions
DOD Federal Procurement in MSA Projection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts $ Billions Source:  Census Consolidated Federal Fund...
Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Eisenhower Kennedy –  Johnson Nixon -  Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bus...
Housing Market Trends
House Price Index Change Q3 2000 – Q3 2010 % Source: FHFA
House Price Change Q4 2009 – Q4 2010 % Source: NAR Single Family
Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through January 2011 12-Month Moving Average
Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5.0%/Year
Average Sales Price  Annual Percent Change Washington MSA All Existing Homes % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analy...
Percent Change in  Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: ...
Total Active Listings Per Sale January Each Year – Metro Area Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annua...
Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis An...
Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis An...
Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis...
Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Detached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis An...
Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Attached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis An...
Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Condos % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change  Ann...
Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2010, 3-Month Mvg Avg
Economic Forecast
Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regiona...
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center f...
% Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.
<ul><li>Nationally most economic measures are positive and gaining momentum, jobs and housing lag </li></ul><ul><li>Local ...
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Local Experienced Independent Spring Housing Briefing
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Spring 2010 Housing Briefing

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Spring 2010 Housing Briefing
The Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook
by
John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University

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Spring 2010 Housing Briefing

  1. 1. Local Experienced Independent Spring Housing Briefing
  2. 2. Local Apex Home Loans, Inc © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com <ul><li>Largest Independent Mortgage Banking Firm </li></ul><ul><li>Headquartered in Montgomery County </li></ul><ul><li>Licensed in DC, MD, VA </li></ul><ul><li>Decisions Made Locally </li></ul><ul><li>In house processing, underwriting, appraisal </li></ul><ul><li>management, doc draw, and funding </li></ul>
  3. 3. Apex Home Loans, Inc © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com Experienced <ul><li>Founded in 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>Staff to originator ratio of 1:1 </li></ul><ul><li>Loan originators all have 10+ years experience </li></ul><ul><li>Owners all have 15+ years experience </li></ul><ul><li>Consistently called on by local & national </li></ul><ul><li>media </li></ul>
  4. 4. Independent Apex Home Loans, Inc © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com <ul><li>More control than a mortgage broker </li></ul><ul><li>or large retail bank </li></ul><ul><li>Owners all on site </li></ul><ul><li>Full Product Menu </li></ul><ul><li>Direct Lender </li></ul>
  5. 5. Thank You To Our Sponsors
  6. 6. Keynote Presentation by John McClain , George Mason Center for Regional Analysis
  7. 7. Apex Home Loans March 3, 2011 The Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University
  8. 8. Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast)
  9. 9. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >
  10. 10. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
  11. 11. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over-the-Year THOUSANDS Jan = + 550 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
  12. 12. Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 402 Feb-11
  13. 13. U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.0 % GI FCST 11 – 9.0 12 – 8.5 13 – 7.8 14 – 7.1 15 – 6.6
  14. 14. U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale) (000s) (000s)
  15. 15. L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Jan 2011 RECESSION > > >
  16. 16. Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > > %
  17. 17. Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >
  18. 18. Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan-11
  19. 19. The Washington Economy
  20. 20. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change from Recession Start (12/07) (000s) Washington -22,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  21. 21. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Last 10 Years (000s) Washington 280,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  22. 22. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
  23. 23. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
  24. 24. 000s Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  25. 25. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  26. 26. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Dec 09 – Dec 10 (000s) Washington + 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  27. 27. Job Change by Sector Dec 2009 – Dec 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  28. 28. Annual Job Change District of Columbia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  29. 29. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  30. 30. Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  31. 31. 9.2 – DC 9.1 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.7 – MSA 4.7 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  32. 32. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2010 % US 9.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 5.7
  33. 33. Wages & Salaries Procurement Federal Spending By Type 1984 - 2009 $ Billions
  34. 34. DOD Federal Procurement in MSA Projection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports <ul><li>- $9.5 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>66,000 Jobs </li></ul>
  35. 35. Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 - 22 + 80 + 36 + 18 - 6 + 4 - 42 + 23 Obama +28
  36. 36. Housing Market Trends
  37. 37. House Price Index Change Q3 2000 – Q3 2010 % Source: FHFA
  38. 38. House Price Change Q4 2009 – Q4 2010 % Source: NAR Single Family
  39. 39. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through January 2011 12-Month Moving Average
  40. 40. Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5.0%/Year
  41. 41. Average Sales Price Annual Percent Change Washington MSA All Existing Homes % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  42. 42. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Jan = -17.3%
  43. 43. Total Active Listings Per Sale January Each Year – Metro Area Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  44. 44. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  45. 45. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  46. 46. Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  47. 47. Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  48. 48. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Detached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = -7, SM = +5, NV = +1
  49. 49. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Attached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = +16, SM = -.2, NV = +2
  50. 50. Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Condos % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = -9, SM = -21, NV = -5
  51. 51. Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2010, 3-Month Mvg Avg
  52. 52. Economic Forecast
  53. 53. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 D.C. 10.1 -0.6 10.5 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.4 Sub. MD -4.3 -26.8 1.5 15.5 13.6 14.9 15.6 14.6 No. VA 3.6 -24.5 9.5 22.1 20.7 22.3 22.6 20.3 REGION 9.5 -51.9 21.5 48.1 44.0 46.5 47.8 44.2
  54. 54. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  55. 55. % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.
  56. 56. <ul><li>Nationally most economic measures are positive and gaining momentum, jobs and housing lag </li></ul><ul><li>Local Economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Good job growth, declining unemployment, and job growth in high-wage sectors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Local Housing Market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prices are stable, rising </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inventories moderate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Given that and with mortgage rates low, sales </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New housing is yet to recover…later this year & 2012 </li></ul></ul>SUMMARY
  57. 57. policy-cra.gmu.org
  58. 58. Local Experienced Independent Spring Housing Briefing

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