Fuller presentation nvar economic summit

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Fuller presentation nvar economic summit

  1. 1. NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit<br />The Outlook for the<br />Washington Area Economy<br />Stephen S. Fuller, PhD<br />Director, Center for Regional Analysis<br />School of Public Policy<br />George Mason University<br />September 16, 2010<br />
  2. 2. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index<br />Month-Over-Year Percent Change<br />
  3. 3. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 09 – July 10 <br />(000s)<br />Washington + 41,800<br />Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  4. 4. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA<br />000s<br /> Annual Data Annual Month over Year<br /> 2008 2009 2010<br />Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  5. 5. Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia<br />000s<br /> Annual Data Annual Month over Year<br /> 2008 2009 2010<br />Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  6. 6. Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Washington MSA<br />Total - 79,300<br />(000s)<br />Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  7. 7. Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Washington MSA<br />Total 41,200<br />(000s)<br />Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  8. 8. Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Northern Virginia<br />Total 22,700<br />(000s)<br />Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  9. 9. Unemployment Rate<br />%<br />9.7<br />6.3<br />5.2<br />U.S.<br />Washington<br />Northern Virginia<br />Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted<br />
  10. 10. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateJuly 2010<br />%<br />US<br />9.7<br />6.3<br />Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted<br />
  11. 11. Housing Market Trends<br />
  12. 12. Existing Home Sales<br />Washington MSA<br />Through August 2010<br />12-Month Moving Average<br />Northern Virginia<br />
  13. 13. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA<br />%<br />Jan-May, 2006 >100 %<br />Aug =<br /> - 0.3%<br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  14. 14. Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year<br />PG<br />PW<br />LDN<br />DC<br />MONT<br />FFX<br />ARL<br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  15. 15. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types<br />%<br />Annual Change Annual Change by Month<br /> 2007 2008 2009 2010<br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  16. 16. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types<br />%<br />Annual Change Annual Change by Month<br /> 2007 2008 2009 2010 <br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  17. 17. New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate<br />Washington Metro, All Housing Types<br />%<br /> 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010<br />Source: Hanley Wood<br />
  18. 18. Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Metro Area<br />
  19. 19. Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Northern Virginia<br />
  20. 20. Economic Forecast<br />
  21. 21. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)<br />%<br />NV<br />MSA<br />SM<br />DC<br />Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  22. 22. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)<br />Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000<br />Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS<br />
  23. 23. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015<br />%<br />Washington<br />U.S.<br />Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  24. 24. Policy-cra.gmu.edu<br />

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