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NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller

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NVAR Spring Forecast - Dr. Stephen Fuller

  1. 1. Northern Virginia Association of Realtors The Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economic Performance Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University March 19, 2009
  2. 2. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 Forecast >>>>> % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight
  3. 3. GDP Percent Change (Real Dollars) %
  4. 4. CURRENT CONDITIONS
  5. 5. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Non-Mfg Mfg
  6. 6. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Feb 09 = - 4.34 Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey
  7. 7. Initial Unemployment Claims (4-week moving average) Thousands 350
  8. 8. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Feb = 8.1% Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
  9. 9. Housing Trends: New & Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Rt Scale)
  10. 10. Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  11. 11. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, January 2008, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  12. 12. U.S. Economic Performance % Source: Global Insight
  13. 13. The Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economies
  14. 14. US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP
  15. 15. U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions Washington Area U.S. GRP Change 3/01 - 11/01 (8) 2.5 % 7/90 - 3/91 (8) 0.2 % 7/81 - 11/82 (16) 3.1 % 1/80 - 7/80 (6) 2.3 %
  16. 16. 2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business Other Federal 11.8 % 17.9 % Federal 33.3% Procurement 15.4% Local Business 38.9% Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists
  17. 17. Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ Total Procurement Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  18. 18. Federal Procurement Spending Washington Metro & Northern VA Billions Current $ Metro NVA Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Eagle Eye, Inc.
  19. 19. Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Area 1991 - 2008 Thousands Avg. = 45,000 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  20. 20. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  21. 21. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  22. 22. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Jan. 08 – Jan. 09 (000s) Washington - 1,800 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  23. 23. Job Change by Sector Jan 2008 – Jan 2009 Washington MSA Total - 1,800 (000s) Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  24. 24. Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA Jan 08 – Jan 09 % Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  25. 25. Unemployment Rate % Dec: 7.1% U.S. 4.7% Washington 3.9% Northern VA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  26. 26. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate December 2008 % US 7.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
  27. 27. Housing Market Trends
  28. 28. Sales and Total Active Listings Washington MSA, February Each Year 1000s Listings Sales
  29. 29. Units Sold Percent Change By Subregion All Housing Types % 2007 2008 2009 NVA MSA SMD DC Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  30. 30. Housing Price Index Trends U.S. and Washington Metro Area Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100 Conforming Loans Only Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  31. 31. Average Sales Price All Housing Types $ Washington Metro Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  32. 32. Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction Area 2007 Price 2008 Price Change % Change Dist. Of Columbia $537,400 $543,500 + $6,100 + 1.1 % Arlington $559,000 $539,300 - $19,700 - 3.5 % Alexandria $502,900 $471,200 - $31,700 - 6.3 % Montgomery $550,200 $503,900 - $46,300 - 8.4 % Prince George’s $331,100 $290,200 - $40,900 - 12.4 % Fairfax $542,000 $445,900 - $96,100 - 17.7 % Loudoun $516,800 $389,000 - $127,800 - 24.7 % Prince William $395,000 $257,900 - $137,100 - 34.7 % MD SUBURBS $435,800 $400,400 - $35,400 - 8.1 % VA SUBURBS $488,300 $373,200 - $115,100 - 23.6 % METRO AREA $468,700 $394,700 - $74,000 - 15.8 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  33. 33. Mortgage Foreclosure Rates by County – Jan 08 & Jan 09 Foreclosures /10,000 units Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  34. 34. Economic Forecast
  35. 35. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  36. 36. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5.8 4.2 5.5 6.0 6.4 7.0 6.5 D.C. 4.7 3.4 6.0 10.7 12.5 14.3 16.4 Sub. MD 12.4 9.0 12.2 19.8 23.5 26.8 31.1 No. VA 22.9 16.6 23.7 36.5 42.4 48.1 54.0 REGION Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 45,000 Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  37. 37. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2013 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  38. 38. www.cra-gmu.org

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