Annual Press Conference - George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis Presentation

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Presentation by John McClain from the GMU Center for Regional Analysis at the Annual Press Conference - held at the National Press Club in Washington DC on December 15, 2009.

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Annual Press Conference - George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis Presentation

  1. 1. YEAR END REAL ESTATE REPORT 2009<br />Economic Overview and Outlook<br />John McClain, Senior Fellow<br />Center for Regional Analysis<br />School of Public Policy<br />George Mason University<br />December 15, 2009<br />
  2. 2. GDP Percent Change, 1930-2009(Real Dollars)<br />%<br />
  3. 3. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011<br /> Forecast &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;<br />%<br /> 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />Source: Global Insight<br />
  4. 4. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices<br />Mfg<br />Non-Mfg<br />
  5. 5. US Job Change<br />Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted<br />000s<br />NOV<br />-11<br />Source: BLS<br />
  6. 6. Initial Unemployment Claims<br />000s<br />(4-week moving average)<br />
  7. 7. U.S. Unemployment Rate<br />%<br />Nov =<br /> 10.0 %<br />Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted<br />
  8. 8. U.S. Housing TrendsNew & Existing Home Sales<br />(000s)<br />(000s)<br />Existing<br />(left scale)<br />New<br />(Right Scale)<br />
  9. 9. Consumer Confidence<br />Present Situation<br />100<br />Expectations<br />Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  10. 10. U.S. Leading Index<br /> 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />
  11. 11. The Washington Economy<br />
  12. 12. US GDP and Washington GRP <br />%<br />Washington GRP<br />US GDP<br />
  13. 13. Total Federal Spending<br />Washington Metro Area<br />Billions Current $<br />Total <br />Procurement<br />Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  14. 14. Annual Change in Jobs<br />Washington Metro Area<br />1991 - 2008<br />Thousands<br />Avg. = <br />45,000<br />Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  15. 15. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Oct 08 – Oct 09<br />(000s)<br />Washington – 23,900<br />Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  16. 16. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA<br />000s<br /> Annual Data Annual Month over Year<br /> 2008 2009<br />Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  17. 17. Job Change by SectorDec 2008 – Oct 2009Washington MSA<br />Total - 19,500<br />(000s)<br />Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  18. 18. Unemployment Rate<br />%<br />9.5<br />6.2<br />U.S.<br />Washington<br />Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted<br />
  19. 19. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateOctober 2009<br />%<br />US<br />9.5<br />6.2<br />Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted<br />
  20. 20. Housing Market Trends<br />
  21. 21. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2009, MSA<br />%<br />Jan-May, 2006 &gt;100 %<br />Nov =<br /> - 20 %<br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  22. 22. Units Sold Percent ChangeBy SubregionAll Housing Types<br />%<br />2007 2008 2009<br />DC<br />SMD<br />MSA<br />NVA<br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  23. 23. Total Active Listings Per SaleNovember Each Year<br />PG<br />LDN<br />DC<br />MONT<br />FFX<br />ARL<br />
  24. 24. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types<br />%<br />Annual Change Annual Change by Month<br /> 2007 2008 2009<br />Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  25. 25. 15 Largest Metro AreasRanked by Median House Price ChangeQ3 2008 – Q3 2009<br />%<br />- 2.5<br />US<br />-11.2<br />Source: National Association of Realtors<br />
  26. 26. New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate<br />Washington Metro, All Housing Types<br />%<br /> 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />Source: Hanley Wood<br />
  27. 27. Office Market Trends<br />
  28. 28. Office Vacancy RateWashington Metro Area1980 -2011<br />%<br />Projected<br />13.5%<br />Avg =<br />9.1%<br />Source: Delta Associates<br />
  29. 29. Office Market Outlook: 2009-2011<br />(millions of square feet)<br />(1) Projected for 9/11<br />Source: Delta Associates<br />
  30. 30. Economic Forecast<br />
  31. 31. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2014<br />%<br />Washington<br />U.S.<br />Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  32. 32. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)<br />Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000<br />Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis<br />
  33. 33. www.cra-gmu.org<br />Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 18th Annual Economic Conference<br />Friday, January 15, 2010<br />

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