I Overthrew My Government... Now What? Social Media Analysis of Post-Revolutionary Middle East
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What role does social media play in building or disrupting democracy in post-revolutionary societies in the Middle East? This research, presented at a SXSW Interactive 2013 panel organized by Sanitas International, uses social media analytics by Crimson Hexagon to examine how citizens use social media in fledgling democracies.
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I Overthrew My Government... Now What? Social Media Analysis of Post-Revolutionary Middle East
- 1. I OVERTHREW MY GOVERNMENT… NOW WHAT? @ C R I M S O N H E X A G O N @ S A N I TA S I N T #SXSW #Overthrown EGYPT L I B YA SYRIA
- 2. I OVERTHREW MY GOVERNMENT… NOW WHAT? A N A LY S I S B Y E L I Z A B E T H B U T L E R B R E E S E SENIOR CONTENT & DIGITAL MARKETING STRATEGIST, CRIMSON HEXAGON @EBBREESE | @CMHARVIN| @NFM| @JOETRIPPI How do citizens use social media in fledgling democracies? • Instrumental Citizens use social media to call attention to events, to alert others in their social networks to fast-changing developments, and to coordinate action. • Interpretive Citizens use social media to interpret the meaning of their social and political experiences and to project what they believe the future holds for their nation and for their countrymen and women. SYRIA EGYPT L I B YA
- 3. EGYPT P E R I O D OF SCAF RULE Egypt Feb 11, 2011 - Nov 11, 2011 Period of SCAF Rule
- 4. EGYPT - VOLUME OF CONVERSATION PERIOD OF SCAF RULE English 575,233 relevant posts Arabic 3,062,844 relevant posts
- 5. EGYPT - THEMATIC ANALYSIS PERIOD OF SCAF RULE English, Topics of Conversation Arabic, Topics of Conversation
- 6. EGYPT - THEMATIC ANALYSIS PERIOD OF SCAF RULE Volume Trend Comparison Dark Blue: Pessimism & Disappointment Light Blue: Reports & Rumors About Mubarak
- 7. EGYPT – CATEGORY TREND COMPARISON PERIOD OF SCAF RULE Category Trend Comparison Purple: English Yellow: Arabic This slide presents a comparison of reports of protests and demonstrations Category Trend Comparison Purple: English Yellow: Arabic This graph represents total volume of conversation about SCAF, state- building, and the revolution
- 8. EGYPT – MASPERO DEMONSTRATIONS PERIOD OF SCAF RULE English We see two spikes in conversation, but little lingering conversation about protest activities and police violence. Arabic The conversation about police violence spikes on October 9 and stays higher for a longer period of time than in English- language conversation on Twitter.
- 9. EGYPT – MASPERO DEMONSTRATIONS PERIOD OF SCAF RULE Reports of Violence & Abuses of Power (English) Tweets About Maspero "Today's events will be a pretext for SCAF to continue the state of emergency and military trial for civilians." Word Cluster reflecting posts from October 7 – 15. "Today the treacherous army and its scoundrel supporters ('falool’) occupied Tahrir Square. Today we were defeated, but it is in only a stage.”
- 10. EGYPT D U R I N G ELECTIONS Egypt Nov 12, 2011 - June 1, 2012 Elections
- 11. EGYPT - VOLUME OF CONVERSATION DURING ELECTIONS English 652,812 relevant posts Arabic 8,942,183 relevant posts
- 12. EGYPT - THEMATIC ANALYSIS DURING ELECTIONS English, Topics of Conversation Arabic, Topics of Conversation
- 13. EGYPT - THEMATIC ANALYSIS DURING ELECTIONS English, Opinion Analysis Bar Graph The opinion analysis bar graph shows that over time conversation shifts away from revolutionary activities (yellow) toward conversation about the elections and state institutions (purple and green respectively). Arabic, Opinion Analysis Bar Graph Similar to what we saw with the English opinion analysis of the elections period, this bar graph shows that over time conversation shifts away from revolutionary activities (yellow) toward conversation about parties and candidates (purple).
- 14. LIBYA AFTER GADDAFI Libya Oct 13, 2011 - Dec 31, 2011: End of the Gaddafi Regime
- 15. LIBYA – OPINION ANALYSIS AFTER GADDAFI English Opinion Analysis Arabic Opinion Analysis
- 16. LIBYA - CONVERSATION AFTER GADDAFI Proportion Trend (English) Oct 24: "Breaking News: The National Transition Oct 20: "God is great. God is great. Praise be to god. Council: Gaddafi will be buried in a secret location in We fulfilled the covenant, which is that the tyrant the Sahara." Muammar Gaddafi is killed alone in his backyard, and Libya lives liberated and unified.”
- 17. LIBYA I N TRANSITION Libya Jan 1, 2012 - Apr 30, 2012 Transition
- 18. LIBYA – OPINION ANALYSIS IN TRANSITION English Opinion Analysis Arabic Opinion Analysis
- 19. LIBYA - CONVERSATION IN TRANSITION Pessimism Trend January 2012 Yellow: English Purple: Arabic Pessimism & Optimism Trend (Arabic), Jan – April Apr 23: “Under Gaddafi, Libya was a cemetery in which nothing moved. But now, she pulsates with political, social, economic, and cultural life. And those are the facts." Apr 28: "Libya is beautiful. . . She[Libya] just needs us to understand her and take care of her. . . and then she'll truly be a homeland for us -- not a place where we consume what's inside.”
- 20. SYRIA A S S A D G O V E R N M E N T, F R E E S Y R I A N A R M Y, & V I O L E N C E I N S Y R I A Syria Jan 1, 2013 - Present
- 21. SYRIA A S S A D G O V E R N M E N T, F R E E S Y R I A N A R M Y, & V I O L E N C E I N S Y R I A English Opinion Analysis Arabic Opinion Analysis
- 22. SYRIA A S S A D G O V E R N M E N T, F R E E S Y R I A N A R M Y, & V I O L E N C E I N S Y R I A Topics This topic wheel represents the conversation in English criticizing the UN and making appeals to the wider world.
- 23. SYRIA A S S A D G O V E R N M E N T, F R E E S Y R I A N A R M Y, & V I O L E N C E I N S Y R I A Example Tweets Criticisms of U.N. Reports of Violence "The Syrian Opposition Coalition: The United Nations "Il-Zahoor Region: Al-Assad's gangs launch a campaign unintentionally funds the private killing machine of the of raiding and searching of homes in the area." Assad regime." "Residents of Hanaano: Massacre of an entire family due to the falling of a shell from the regime's artillery on a house near the center." Coping With Death & Destruction "The Syrian revolution laughs despite the pain."
- 24. I OVERTHREW MY GOVERNMENT… NOW WHAT? Crimson Hexagon | @crimsonhexagon SYRIA EGYPT L I B YA
Editor's Notes
- Egypt, Feb. 11, 2011 – Nov. 11, 2011: Period of SCAF RuleAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Egypt about revolutionary activities, SCAF, and state institutionsMore than 3 million tweets in ArabicMore than half a million tweets in EnglishDuring this timeframe, “reflections on the revolution” in the interpretive mode represented 54% of the conversation in Arabic. October 9 & 10, 2011 saw a spike in instrumental social media posts about the Maspero protests and police violence.
- 1.The overall volume of relevant Twitter posts in English in Egypt from 11-Feb 2011 to 11-Nov 2011 is 575,000. This graphs shows the spikes and dips in post volume.April 8: Egypt Protesters Dispersed By Military Using Tasers And BatonsMay 24: It was announced that ousted President Hosni Mubarak and his sons would be tried over the deaths of anti-government protesters in the revolutionJune 28: Clashes in Tahrir Square between security forces and protestorsJuly 8: "Friday of Determination", hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered in Suez, Alexandria and Tahrir Square demanding immediate reforms and swifter prosecution of former officials from the ousted governmentJuly 15: "Friday of the last ultimatum”August 1: Egyptian army retakes Tahrir SquareAugust 3: Mubarak trial beginsSept 9: Thousands arrive in Tahrir Square to press military rulers to keep their promises of political reformOct 9: The "Maspero demonstrations” – protesters attacked by police; at least 25 killed, more than 200 wounded2.The overall volume for this monitor is over 3 million. It covers the same time range as the English language monitor.April 8: Egypt Protesters Dispersed By Military Using Tasers And BatonsJune 28: Clashes in Tahrir Square between security forces and protestorsJuly 8: "Friday of Determination", hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered in Suez, Alexandria and Tahrir Square demanding immediate reforms and swifter prosecution of former officials from the ousted governmentAugust 3: August 3: Mubarak trial beginsSept 9: Thousands arrive in Tahrir Square to press military rulers to keep their promises of political reformOct 9: The "Maspero demonstrations” – protesters attacked by police; at least 25 killed, more than 200 wounded: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/world/middleeast/24egypt.html
- 1.This opinion analysis shows the percentage breakdown of the topics of conversation in English during this time period.2.This opinion analysis shows the percentage breakdown of the topics of conversation in Arabic during this time period. Compared to the English-language monitor, there is more conversation having to do with emotions and feelings about the revolution and forecasts about the future, while the English-language monitor showed more conversation than the Arabic monitor about state-building and state institutions.
- 3.Category Trend Comparison: In the Arabic monitor, the conversation about “disappointment, sorrow, and pessimism” relating to the revolution and the conversation consisting of rumors and reports of Mubarak’s death move together. This is curious to me. Why might this be the case?April 8: Protesters call for Mubarak to be put on trial End of July, doubts Grow in Egypt About Trial for Mubarak – fear the trial will be postponedTrial resumed in Sept.; and in a surprise turn, at least four of the witnesses for the prosecution reversed what they had earlier told investigators, saying that they were unaware of any orders to use deadly force, or that the police were only armed with non-lethal weapons
- 1.Category Trend Comparison 1: This slide presents a comparison of reports of protests and demonstrations in English (purple) and in Arabic (yellow). At times, the reports line up very closely, e.g. just prior to October 1 and between August 8 and August 16. At other times, there are significant differences. Look at Oct. 9: The Maspero demonstrations – Significant drop in Arabic reports (following a week long plateau) while English reports spike. Very interesting. 2.This graph represents total volume of conversation about SCAF, state-building, and the revolution in Arabic (yellow) and in English (purple) in October 2011. You can see that the total volume spikes on October 9, the day of the Maspero protests.
- 1.Maspero DemonstrationsIn the English-language analysis we see two spikes in conversation, but little lingering conversation about protest activities and police violence. What spurred the second spike on October 12?2.Maspero DemonstrationsIn the Arabic-language analysis, the conversation about police violence spikes on October 9 and stays higher for a longer period of time than in English-language conversation on Twitter. There is an increase on October 19; did something happen on that day?
- 1.Maspero Demonstrations – Word Cluster reflecting posts from October 7 – 15.2.Maspero DemonstrationsHere are a few example tweets from October 9 and 10 about demonstrations and the army and police response.
- The overall volume of relevant Twitter posts in English in Egypt from 11-Feb 2011 to 11-Nov 2011 is 575,000. This graphs shows the spikes and dips in post volume.April 8: Egypt Protesters Dispersed By Military Using Tasers And BatonsMay 24: It was announced that ousted President Hosni Mubarak and his sons would be tried over the deaths of anti-government protesters in the revolutionJune 28: Clashes in Tahrir Square between security forces and protestorsJuly 8: "Friday of Determination", hundreds of thousands of protesters gathered in Suez, Alexandria and Tahrir Square demanding immediate reforms and swifter prosecution of former officials from the ousted governmentJuly 15: "Friday of the last ultimatum”August 1: Egyptian army retakes Tahrir SquareAugust 3: Mubarak trial beginsSept 9: Thousands arrive in Tahrir Square to press military rulers to keep their promises of political reformOct 9: The "Maspero demonstrations” – protesters attacked by police; at least 25 killed, more than 200 wounded
- 1.The overall volume of relevant Twitter posts in English in Egypt from 12-Nov 2011 to 1-Jun 2012 is 650,000. This graphs shows the spikes and dips in post volume.First spike: 19 November: Clashes erupt in Tahrir Square as demonstrators reoccupy the location in central Cairo. 20 November: Police forces attempt to forcibly clear the square, but protesters soon return in more than twice their original numbers. Fierce fighting breaks out and continues through the night 21 November: Demonstrators return to the square, with Coptic Christians standing guard as Muslims protesting the regime pause for prayers. Solidarity protests are held in Alexandria, Suez, and at least five other major Egyptian cities. 22 November: Amid demonstrations thought to be the largest in Egypt since the fall of Mubārak, Mohamed Tantawi (head of SCAF), gave a televised address announcing the resignation of the cabinet. He also vowed to speed up the transition to civilian government by holding presidential elections and drafting a new constitution before June 2012. 24 November: As clashes began to subside, the government issued an apology for the deaths of about 40 protesters. SCAF announces the appointment of Kamal al-Ganzouri as prime minister. Ganzouri, an economist, previously served as prime minister under Mubārak from 1996 to 1999. 25 November: In a rare display of public criticism, the U.S. administration issued a statement calling on SCAF to end violence against prisoners and for power to be transferred to a civilian government as soon as possible. 28 November: Despite recent unrest, the first round of voting in the parliamentary elections took place as scheduled. 30 November: Early election returns showed the highest totals for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Nūr Party (a hard-line Islamist party).2.The volume trend graph indicates that over 8.9 million posts on Twitter in Egypt in Arabic had to do with elections and governmental institutions from November 12, 2011 to June 1, 2012.
- 1.This opinion analysis shows the percentage breakdown of the topics of conversation during this time period.2.This opinion analysis shows the percentage breakdown of the topics of conversation during this time period.
- 1.The opinion analysis bar graph shows that over time conversation shifts away from revolutionary activities (yellow) toward conversation about the elections and state institutions (purple and green respectively). 2.Similar to what we saw with theEnglish opinion analysis of the elections period, this bar graph shows that over time conversation shifts away from revolutionary activities (yellow) toward conversation about parties and candidates (purple).
- Libya, Oct. 13, 2011 – Dec. 31, 2011: End of the Gaddafi RegimeAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Libya about the end of the Gaddafi regime, NATO, revolution, and state-building.26,000 tweets in Arabic26,000 tweets in English39% of the Arabic conversation pertained to state-building and the National Transitional Council (NTC), and 1% of the conversation reported military clashes.In English, 10% of the conversation was about the NTC, and 30% reported military clashes. In Arabic, more tweets addressed state-building, while in English more tweets reported military clashes.Tweets in both languages were more optimistic (26% Arabic/ 24% English) than pessimistic (11%/ 7%).
- 1.From October 13, 2011 to December 31, 2011, there were 25,000 tweets in Arabic (yellow) and 26,000 tweets in English (purple) from Libya about Gaddafi, NATO, and the National Transitional Council.2.In the days directly following Gaddafi’s death, the proportion of the conversation about him is high, but after a few days (October 22 – 24), conversation about the outlook for Libya rises as a proportion of conversation.Tweet from October 20: "God is great. God is great. Praise be to god. We fulfilled the covenant, which is that the tyrant Muammar Gaddafi is killed alone in his backyard, and Libya lives liberated and unified.” Tweet from October 24: "Breaking News: The National Transition Council: Gaddafi will be buried in a secret location in the Sahara."
- Libya, Jan. 1, 2012 – April 30, 2012: TransitionAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Libya about state-building and Libya after the death of Gaddafi.Months after Gaddafi’s death, more than one-third of conversation in Arabic and English (39%/ 34%) addressed the punishment and fate of Gaddafi’s family and supporters and the crimes of the Gaddafi era.Criticizing the NTC and politicians was a more significant conversation (27%) in Arabic than in English (9%).Tweets interpreting the future in a positive, optimistic light (11% Arabic/ 8% English) are still a larger segment of the conversation than interpreting what the future holds for Libya pessimistically (3%/ 7%), but by a smaller margin than in the time period immediately following the death of Gaddafi
- 1.As a proportion of the conversation, pessimism is greater overall in English-language tweets (yellow). Around January 21, we see a significant spike in pessimism in both languages.2.In Arabic, all talk about outlook for the future increases after January. Optimism reigns for most of February, March, and April.Translation of tweet by @kasimf: “Under Gaddafi, Libya was a cemetery in which nothing moved. But now, she pulsates with political, social, economic, and cultural life. And those are the facts." Translation of tweet by @Naasios: "Libya is beautiful. . . She[Libya] just needs us to understand her and take care of her. . . and then she'll truly be a homeland for us -- not a place where we consume what's inside.”
- Libya, Jan. 1, 2012 – April 30, 2012: TransitionAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Libya about state-building and Libya after the death of Gaddafi.Months after Gaddafi’s death, more than one-third of conversation in Arabic and English (39%/ 34%) addressed the punishment and fate of Gaddafi’s family and supporters and the crimes of the Gaddafi era.Criticizing the NTC and politicians was a more significant conversation (27%) in Arabic than in English (9%).Tweets interpreting the future in a positive, optimistic light (11% Arabic/ 8% English) are still a larger segment of the conversation than interpreting what the future holds for Libya pessimistically (3%/ 7%), but by a smaller margin than in the time period immediately following the death of Gaddafi
- Libya, Jan. 1, 2012 – April 30, 2012: TransitionAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Libya about state-building and Libya after the death of Gaddafi.Months after Gaddafi’s death, more than one-third of conversation in Arabic and English (39%/ 34%) addressed the punishment and fate of Gaddafi’s family and supporters and the crimes of the Gaddafi era.Criticizing the NTC and politicians was a more significant conversation (27%) in Arabic than in English (9%).Tweets interpreting the future in a positive, optimistic light (11% Arabic/ 8% English) are still a larger segment of the conversation than interpreting what the future holds for Libya pessimistically (3%/ 7%), but by a smaller margin than in the time period immediately following the death of Gaddafi
- Libya, Jan. 1, 2012 – April 30, 2012: TransitionAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Libya about state-building and Libya after the death of Gaddafi.Months after Gaddafi’s death, more than one-third of conversation in Arabic and English (39%/ 34%) addressed the punishment and fate of Gaddafi’s family and supporters and the crimes of the Gaddafi era.Criticizing the NTC and politicians was a more significant conversation (27%) in Arabic than in English (9%).Tweets interpreting the future in a positive, optimistic light (11% Arabic/ 8% English) are still a larger segment of the conversation than interpreting what the future holds for Libya pessimistically (3%/ 7%), but by a smaller margin than in the time period immediately following the death of Gaddafi
- Libya, Jan. 1, 2012 – April 30, 2012: TransitionAnalyzing conversation on Twitter in Libya about state-building and Libya after the death of Gaddafi.Months after Gaddafi’s death, more than one-third of conversation in Arabic and English (39%/ 34%) addressed the punishment and fate of Gaddafi’s family and supporters and the crimes of the Gaddafi era.Criticizing the NTC and politicians was a more significant conversation (27%) in Arabic than in English (9%).Tweets interpreting the future in a positive, optimistic light (11% Arabic/ 8% English) are still a larger segment of the conversation than interpreting what the future holds for Libya pessimistically (3%/ 7%), but by a smaller margin than in the time period immediately following the death of Gaddafi