CompTIA’s IT Industry Outlook 2014 provides an overview of the size, shape and growth factors of the information technology (IT) industry and the IT channel. This study and all CompTIA research is one way in which the association re-invests resources in the IT channel. As the voice of the IT industry, CompTIA has hundreds of tools, market intelligence reports and business training programs to help IT channel organizations grow through education, certification, advocacy and philanthropy. The full report is available at no cost to CompTIA members to help them develop and hone their business plans.
The IT industry is likely to experience moderate growth in 2014. CompTIA’s consensus forecast projects a 2014 growth rate of 3.4 percent for the global IT industry, with upside potential of 5.9 percent. The U.S forecast is slightly lower: 3 percent, with upside potential of 5.4 percent.
On the employment front, 41 percent of IT companies plan increased investments in staffing in technical positions this year, compared to 15 percent that plan staffing decreases. Among non-technical positions, 32 percent of firms plan increases and 16 percent decreases. The data suggests medium-sized IT firms will be the most aggressive in hiring for both technical and non-technical positions.
CompTIA views 2014 as a year of momentum and continuation, as incremental advancements in several areas make their marks on the producers and consumers of technology. Twelve trends to watch over the next 12 months:
Macro Trends
1. Technology becomes a core competency for more businesses.
2. Mass customization gets more sophisticated.
3. Processes and workflow get a makeover.
4. Technology is increasingly embraced as the remote control of life.
Technology Trends
1. Cloud wars intensify.
2. Diverse devices flood the market.
3. Big data has a little sibling.
4. Software’s appetite is not satisfied.
IT Channel Trends
1. When it comes to your channel business, it’s OK to stay in two lanes.
2. Time to rebrand the “trusted advisor.”
3. Back to basics: Reinvesting in technical expertise.
4. Channel dynamics: Partner or competitor?
2. IT Industry Employment vs. IT Occupation Employment
IT
Industry
Employment
An estimated 5.73 million
workers were employed in the
U.S. information technology
industry in 2013. This includes
technical and non-technical
positions in employer firms and
non-employer firms.
IT
Occupation
Employment
Within the IT
industry, there
are many IT
occupations.
An estimated 4.74 million workers
were employed in core IT
occupations, across the full
spectrum of U.S. industry sectors
and the government sector in 2013.
This figure includes non-employers,
such as the self-employed or sole
proprietors.
Sources: EMSI | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages | CompTIA
3. IT Jobs Distribution by State/Region
Total U.S. Core IT job count for 2013: 4.74 million workers
Midwest:
934 K
Northeast:
906 K
West:
1.2 M
South:
1.6 M
Sources: EMSI | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages | CompTIA
4. 2013 U.S. IT Industry Employment Estimates
IT
Hardware
Mfg.
1,098,725
employed
Software
Publishing
324,669
employed
5.7 million
employed* in the
U.S. Info Tech Sector
IT Services
357,940
IT Hardware Mfg.: 18,835 establishments
•
•
•
•
•
•
Computer &peripheral equipment
Communications equipment
A/V equipment
Semiconductors & electrical components
Measuring & control instruments
Magnetic & Optical media
Software Publishing: 12,187 establishments
• Software
IT Services: 228,373 establishments
•
•
•
•
•
Computer system design & implementation
Custom computer programming
Support and management
Maintenance & repair services
Computer training
employed
2,288,462
Telecom/Info Services: 67,047 establishments
U.S. Employer
Establishments
Telecom &
Info
Services
Includes technical and non-technical occupations.
The 357,940 figure includes employer firms ONLY –
firms with payroll and employees.
There are an estimated 878,243 self-employed,
non-employer entities. These could be consultants,
contractors, independent mobile app developers
and other individual entities without payroll.
1,526,839
employed
Retail &
Wholesale
& Dist.
491,123
employed
•
•
•
•
Wired telecom services
Wireless telecom services
Satellite services
Data processing, hosting and search
services
Retail & Wholesale: 31,498 establishments
• Computer & software stores
• Computer, peripheral and software
wholesalers
• Online computer & related retailers
Sources: EMSI | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages | CompTIA
5. IT Industry Executives Feeling Slightly More
Confident Heading into 2014
CompTIA’s IT Industry Business Confidence Index is calculated on a 100-point scale, using an aggregation of three
metrics: 1). Opinions of the U.S. economy, 2). Opinions of the IT industry, and 3). Opinions of one’s company.
64.0
62.0
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
52.0
50.0
48.0
46.0
Forecast
Q1 '14
Q4 '13
Q3 '13
Q2 '13
Q1 '13
Q4 '12
Q3 '12
Q2 '12
Q1 '12
Q4 '11
Q3 '11
Q2 '11
Q1 '11
Q4 '10
Q3 '10
Q2 '10
Q1 '10
Q4 '09
Q3 '09
44.0
Source: CompTIA 2014 Industry Outlook | Base: 525 executives at U.S. IT firms
6. CompTIA IT Industry Growth Forecast
Global IT Industry Revenue Forecast
U.S. IT Industry Revenue Forecast
2014 Optimistic projection:
2014 Pessimistic projection:
2014 Midpoint projection:
2014 Optimistic projection:
2014 Pessimistic projection:
2014 Midpoint projection:
5.9%
1.0%
3.4%
7.0
6.0
6.0
Growth Rate Range
8.0
7.0
Growth Rate Range
8.0
5.4%
0.7%
3.0%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: CompTIA 2014 Industry Outlook | Base: 525 executives at U.S. IT firms
7. Many IT Industry Executives Expect Positive
Growth in 2014, Even Under Pessimistic Scenario
U.S. IT Industry Revenue Forecast: Distribution of Opinions
-12% growth
Midpoint =
0% growth
+12% growth
Optimistic scenario:
94% NET positive growth forecast
3% Flat growth forecast
4% NET negative growth forecast
Pessimistic scenario:
61% NET positive growth forecast
13% Flat growth forecast
26% NET negative growth forecast
Shaded area =
Optimistic
scenario
Line = Pessimistic
scenario
Source: CompTIA 2014 Industry Outlook | Base: 525 executives at U.S. IT firms
8. Planned 2014 Investments by Firm Size
Micro
Firms
Small
Firms
Medium
Firms
Large
Firms
Staffing levels in technical positions
29%
45%
49%
37%
Investments in new products or business lines
34%
42%
49%
36%
Technology expenditures
42%
43%
46%
30%
Staff training or professional development
41%
40%
39%
28%
Marketing/advertising expenditures
34%
35%
33%
36%
Staffing levels in non-technical positions
22%
38%
41%
26%
Capital expenditures (e.g. non technology)
22%
24%
29%
25%
Business travel
24%
37%
22%
12%
Percent Planning an Increase
Source: CompTIA 2014 Industry Outlook | Base: 525 executives at U.S. IT firms
9. Despite Strong Customer Demand for Technology,
Spending Still Seen as Fragile by IT Firms
IT firm executives’ concerns over factors most likely to negatively impact growth during 2014
Price sensitive customers hesitant to spend
45%
Government regulation
35%
General lack of confidence/paralysis
32%
Labor costs/availability of skilled workers
32%
IT industry squeezed by decreasing margins
31%
Unexpected shock (e.g. natural disaster)
30%
Competition from new firms entering space
26%
Lengthy sales cycles
25%
Disruptive technologies or business models
20%
Access to credit/capital
18%
Weak export market
10%
Input/commodity price inflation
10%
Source: CompTIA 2014 Industry Outlook | Base: 525 executives at U.S. IT firms
10. Trends to Watch in 2014
Technology Becomes a Core Competency for More Businesses
Macro
Trends
Mass Customization Gets More Sophisticated
Processes and Workflow Get a Makeover
Technology Increasingly Embraced as the Remote Control of Life
Cloud Wars Intensify
Tech
Trends
Diverse Devices Flood the Market
Big Data Has a Little Sibling
Software’s Appetite is not Satisfied
When It Comes to Channel Businesses, It Can be OK to Stay in Two Lanes
Channel
Trends
Time to Rebrand the ‘Trusted Advisor’
Back to the Basics: Reinvesting in Technical Expertise
Channel Dynamics: Partner or Competitor?
11. About this Research
These charts are an excerpt of key findings from CompTIA’s 2014 IT Industry Outlook
CompTIA’s IT Industry Outlook 2014 provides an overview of the size, shape and growth factors of the
information technology (IT) industry and the IT channel.
The study consists of three sections, which can be viewed independently or together as chapters of a
comprehensive report.
Section 1:
Section 2:
Section 3:
IT Industry and Workforce Overview
IT Industry Growth Projections
Technology and Channel Trends
CompTIA’s research program publishes around 25 unique studies year. CompTIA members have access to a
research library containing more than 100 reports covering technology, business, workforce and channel
trends.
This study and all CompTIA research is one way in which the association re-invests resources in the IT channel.
As the voice of the IT industry, CompTIA has hundreds of tools, market intelligence reports and business
training programs to help IT channel organizations grow through education, certification, advocacy and
philanthropy. The full report is available at no cost to CompTIA members to help them develop and hone their
business plans.
Visit www.comptia.org or contact research@comptia.org for more information.