1. United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Coffee:
Circular Series
December 2012 World Markets and Trade
Record World Production Forecast for Third Consecutive Year
160
120
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
80
40
0
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 F
Brazil Vietnam Other
World coffee production for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 151 million bags, up almost 7 million from the
previous year, marking the third consecutive year of rising output. Brazil is forecast to account for nearly
all the gain as its Arabica crop enters the on-year of the biennial production cycle, while Indonesia’s
higher production is offset by Vietnam’s lower output. Colombia is forecast down slightly from last year
to its lowest level in four decades. Global bean exports are forecast at a record. Although ending stocks
are forecast higher, supplies remain tight.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
2. 2012/13 Forecast Overview
Brazil’s production is forecast at a Brazil’s Arabica Production Below Previous On-Cycle
record 55.9 million bags, up 6.7 million 60
from the previous year due primarily to
the Arabica trees entering the on-year of
the biennial production cycle. Whereas
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
previous cycles grew steadily, this year 40
it is forecast slightly below the last on-
year due to frost damage and dry
conditions in Minas Gerais, its main
growing region. The Robusta harvest is 20
forecast to continue expanding as
favorable weather and good crop
management aided fruit settings and
development in Espirito Santo, where 0
the vast majority is grown. Nearly half 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 F
of the additional supply is expected to Arabica Robusta
augment exports, with the rest going to
modest gains in consumption and stocks.
Vietnam’s production is forecast at 25.0 Vietnam’s Production Forecast to Retreat from Record
30
million bags, down 1.0 million from last
year’s record harvest (significant area
expansion and record yield caused last
year’s unexpected 30 percent production
20
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
spike). Pre-season rain throughout the
growing region caused an early bloom
which lowered yield. Bean exports are
forecast 2.0 million bags lower to 22.0
million, while ending stocks are 10
expected to almost double to 1.8 million
bags. Consumption is forecast to
continue rising as the coffee culture
spreads.
-
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 F
Indonesia’s production is forecast to
rebound 1.4 million bags to 9.7 million
on favorable growing conditions, whereas the previous two harvests suffered from excessive rainfall. The
forecast falls short of the record 2009/10 harvest because coffee area has since declined over 5 percent as
higher prices for cocoa, rubber, and palm oil encouraged substitution. Bean exports are forecast to
recover 1.2 million bags to 6.1 million as production gains are mostly exported.
India’s production is forecast to rise 100,000 bags to a record 5.3 million on higher Robusta output.
Growers in Karnataka, the largest coffee producing state, are anticipating a record Robusta harvest due to
increased area and yield. Although bean exports are forecast to slip 100,000 bags to 4.1 million, this
marks the third year of strong exports and declining stocks.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012
3. Colombia’s production is forecast to Colombia’s Production Forecast at Four-Decade Low
slide nearly 200,000 bags to 7.5 million 20
following reports that production in the
first two months of the October-
September marketing year was down 5 15
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
percent compared to the same period
last year. This marks the lowest
production in four decades and well 10
below the record 18 million bags
reached in 1991/92. For the fifth
consecutive year, problems are 5
expected to persist related to the coffee
cherry borer and rust. Also, the
ongoing tree renovation program has -
72/73
74/75
76/77
78/79
80/81
82/83
84/85
86/87
88/89
90/91
92/93
94/95
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13 F
the near-term effect of lowering output
until these trees reach maturity. As a
result, bean exports are forecast at just
6.5 million bags, down 3 percent from the previous year. Bean imports, which jumped to 1.1 million bags
last year to supply consumption, are forecast to remain elevated at 900,000 bags.
Central America’s production is forecast to add 200,000 bags to total 14.6 million as modest gains in El
Salvador and Honduras more than offset a slight decline in Costa Rica. Leaf rust was recently detected in
several countries, constraining production. The region’s bean exports are forecast to rise 300,000 bags to
13.6 million.
The EU accounts for nearly half of world bean imports and is forecast to increase slightly to 45.5 million,
with top suppliers including Brazil (28%), Vietnam (25%) and Honduras (7%). As a result, ending stocks
are expected to remain tight near the decade low.
The United States imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast to decrease slightly
to 23.4 million, with top suppliers including Brazil (25%), Vietnam (18%) and Colombia (13%). Ending
stocks as well as consumption are forecast to rise incrementally.
Revised 2011/12
World production is revised up from the June estimate by 6.8 million bags to 144.4 million.
• Vietnam is revised up 5.0 million bags to 26.0 million due to higher-than-anticipated area and
yield.
• Honduras is raised 1.0 million bags to 5.6 million as more trees reached fruit bearing maturity
earlier than expected, following previous year’s area expansion.
World bean exports are raised 6.4 million bags to 101.5 million.
• Vietnam is revised up 5.0 million bags to 24.0 million following higher available exportable
supplies.
• Honduras is raised 1.1 million bags to 5.3 million due to increased production.
For additional information, please contact Tony Halstead at 202-720-4620, or
Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012
10. Table 05 Green Coffee Bean Ending Stocks
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun Dec
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2012/13
Ending Stocks none
Angola 20 11 5 3 2 2
Bolivia 44 35 19 4 4 4
Brazil 6,576 2,836 2,906 2,283 2,926 4,543
Burundi 18 23 15 15 5 5
Cameroon 219 44 34 24 24 24
Central African Republic 137 112 87 60 32 35
Colombia 209 284 99 249 179 284
Congo (Kinshasa) 31 34 24 10 4 10
Costa Rica 25 125 197 180 84 85
Cote d'Ivoire 88 93 408 118 100 110
EU-27 16,325 10,850 12,900 10,400 12,500 10,700
Ecuador 7 65 143 137 122 122
El Salvador 32 48 13 14 25 30
Ethiopia 120 70 100 100 100 100
Ghana 5 4 3 2 6 6
Guatemala 229 239 199 59 159 34
Guinea 12 7 2 12 22 22
Haiti 44 25 25 25 15 15
Honduras 50 218 30 90 105 145
India 2,523 2,578 2,000 1,100 425 580
Indonesia 1,208 1,603 83 88 148 148
Japan 2,050 1,950 2,550 2,140 2,500 2,190
Kenya 140 50 30 25 35 25
Madagascar 37 22 12 12 12 12
Mexico 109 124 89 104 129 124
Nicaragua 8 37 22 32 17 17
Norway 125 125 125 125 125 125
Papua New Guinea 21 36 21 31 35 35
Paraguay 39 24 10 5 5 5
Peru 84 74 124 29 84 59
Philippines 124 469 90 165 150 150
Switzerland 200 200 200 200 200 200
Tanzania 280 40 50 100 150 100
Thailand 42 92 60 63 55 73
Togo 1 9 7 7 7 7
Uganda 641 701 613 593 493 493
United States 5,333 4,250 4,580 5,100 5,200 5,300
Venezuela 349 390 232 273 153 153
Vietnam 2,307 1,012 800 950 864 1,825
Total 39,812 28,909 28,907 24,927 27,201 27,897
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012
11. Table 06A Total Coffee Exports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun Dec
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2012/13
Exports none
Angola 4 8 5 8 7 7
Bolivia 73 74 66 85 75 75
Brazil 31,475 29,780 35,010 29,843 34,000 32,950
Burundi 250 290 235 200 230 230
Cameroon 480 690 650 700 825 725
Central African Republic 6 25 22 7 15 10
Colombia 8,935 7,435 8,385 7,310 7,300 7,125
Congo (Kinshasa) 117 102 75 69 75 75
Costa Rica 1,385 1,200 1,255 1,330 1,600 1,400
Cote d'Ivoire 1,555 2,045 985 1,590 1,700 1,700
Cuba 6 7 5 10 10 10
Dominican Republic 42 36 48 50 50 40
Ecuador 861 1,140 1,250 1,521 1,800 1,800
El Salvador 1,510 1,240 1,772 1,173 1,403 1,403
Ethiopia 3,000 3,250 3,235 3,100 3,500 3,500
EU-27 225 170 485 410 500 400
Ghana 18 30 57 70 95 85
Guatemala 3,783 3,860 3,650 3,775 3,650 3,650
Guinea 375 410 300 400 375 375
Haiti 17 10 6 9 10 10
Honduras 3,050 3,200 3,900 5,290 4,500 5,500
India 2,415 3,590 4,890 5,005 5,400 4,805
Indonesia 7,700 8,750 9,720 7,450 8,100 8,100
Jamaica 26 23 18 17 15 15
Kenya 980 740 650 780 800 800
Laos 250 290 400 350 475 475
Liberia 7 2 4 5 5 5
Madagascar 115 40 105 100 125 85
Malawi 25 24 24 24 24 24
Malaysia 1,100 1,460 1,675 1,900 1,900 1,600
Mexico 2,735 2,480 2,460 3,315 2,500 3,000
Nicaragua 1,585 1,806 1,665 1,780 1,725 1,725
Nigeria 1 3 2 7 5 5
Panama 45 53 37 35 40 40
Papua New Guinea 1,070 1,040 850 1,350 1,100 1,100
Paraguay 5 5 5 5 5 5
Peru 3,830 3,150 3,880 5,125 4,600 4,600
Rwanda 340 240 317 240 300 250
Sierra Leone 70 70 25 75 50 50
Tanzania 1,205 805 1,005 755 955 755
Thailand 644 684 1,207 767 850 840
Togo 185 440 615 635 650 650
Uganda 3,050 2,670 3,150 3,200 3,400 3,400
Venezuela 235 125 100 100 80 80
Vietnam 15,565 18,670 19,225 24,405 20,450 22,500
Yemen 35 30 20 20 20 20
Zambia 39 27 7 10 10 10
Zimbabwe 18 17 6 3 5 3
Total 100,442 102,236 113,458 114,408 115,309 116,012
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For each non-producing country, the balance between imports and exports was used in order to remove double-counting
from these trade figures.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012
12. Table 06B Green Coffee Bean Exports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun Dec
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2012/13
Bean Exports none
Angola 4 8 5 8 7 7
Bolivia 73 74 66 85 75 75
Brazil 28,396 26,580 31,810 26,556 30,630 29,600
Burundi 250 290 235 200 230 230
Cameroon 480 690 650 700 825 725
Central African Republic 6 25 22 7 15 10
Colombia 8,160 6,445 7,400 6,675 6,500 6,500
Congo (Kinshasa) 117 102 75 69 75 75
Costa Rica 1,385 1,200 1,255 1,330 1,600 1,400
Cote d'Ivoire 1,180 1,755 725 1,290 1,400 1,400
Cuba 6 7 5 10 10 10
Dominican Republic 42 36 48 50 50 40
Ecuador 179 450 425 575 600 525
El Salvador 1,506 1,236 1,770 1,170 1,400 1,400
Ethiopia 3,000 3,250 3,235 3,100 3,500 3,500
Ghana 18 30 57 70 95 85
Guatemala 3,783 3,860 3,650 3,775 3,650 3,650
Guinea 375 410 300 400 375 375
Haiti 17 10 6 9 10 10
Honduras 3,050 3,200 3,900 5,290 4,500 5,500
India 2,125 3,040 4,160 4,200 4,000 4,100
Indonesia 6,625 7,425 7,415 4,950 6,100 6,100
Jamaica 26 23 18 17 15 15
Kenya 980 740 650 780 800 800
Laos 250 290 400 350 475 475
Liberia 7 2 4 5 5 5
Madagascar 115 40 105 100 125 85
Malawi 25 24 24 24 24 24
Mexico 2,125 1,790 1,735 2,525 1,800 2,200
Nicaragua 1,425 1,650 1,525 1,675 1,600 1,600
Nigeria 1 3 2 7 5 5
Panama 45 53 37 35 40 40
Papua New Guinea 1,070 1,040 850 1,350 1,100 1,100
Paraguay 5 5 5 5 5 5
Peru 3,830 3,150 3,880 5,125 4,600 4,600
Rwanda 340 240 317 240 300 250
Sierra Leone 70 70 25 75 50 50
Tanzania 1,200 800 1,000 750 950 750
Thailand 4 4 15 32 50 40
Togo 185 440 615 635 650 650
Uganda 3,050 2,670 3,150 3,200 3,400 3,400
Venezuela 200 120 100 100 80 80
Vietnam 15,430 18,425 18,800 23,950 20,000 22,000
Yemen 35 30 20 20 20 20
Zambia 39 27 7 10 10 10
Zimbabwe 18 17 6 3 5 3
Total 91,252 91,776 100,504 101,532 101,756 103,524
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For each non-producing country, the balance between imports and exports was used in order to remove double-counting
from these trade figures.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012
13. Table 06C Soluble Coffee Exports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun Dec
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2012/13
Soluble Exports none
Brazil 2,991 3,120 3,140 3,236 3,300 3,300
Colombia 725 925 935 610 775 600
Cote d'Ivoire 375 290 260 300 300 300
Ecuador 680 680 825 946 1,200 1,275
EU-27 225 170 485 410 500 400
India 290 550 725 800 1,400 700
Indonesia 1,075 1,325 2,305 2,500 2,000 2,000
Malaysia 1,100 1,460 1,675 1,900 1,900 1,600
Mexico 610 690 725 790 700 800
Nicaragua 160 156 140 105 125 125
Thailand 640 680 1,192 735 800 800
Vietnam 110 195 340 360 400 400
Total 8,986 10,246 12,752 12,697 13,405 12,305
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For each non-producing country, the balance between imports and exports was used in order to remove double-counting
from these trade figures.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012
14. Table 07A Total Coffee Imports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun Dec
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2012/13
Imports none
Algeria 2,070 2,080 1,815 2,240 2,050 2,350
Argentina 680 740 790 740 875 775
Australia 1,225 1,330 1,390 1,450 1,550 1,525
Canada 2,865 3,170 3,375 3,345 3,600 3,450
China 435 610 930 925 1,050 1,100
Colombia 660 590 795 1,105 1,040 960
Costa Rica 15 130 175 75 120 120
Croatia 380 380 380 355 380 380
Cuba 240 220 225 225 225 225
Ecuador 389 732 883 1,153 1,403 1,403
El Salvador 157 136 147 194 214 214
EU-27 43,350 44,200 44,260 44,100 47,000 45,500
Guatemala 188 200 150 175 150 150
Honduras 18 18 23 15 15 15
India 0 80 215 100 770 50
Indonesia 290 570 565 1,435 1,000 950
Iran 185 335 245 260 275 250
Japan 7,005 6,680 7,460 6,565 7,150 7,100
Jordan 420 360 330 390 375 425
Kazakhstan 290 270 190 200 225 225
Korea, South 1,680 1,705 1,930 1,725 2,100 2,000
Malaysia 650 960 1,045 1,060 1,500 1,200
Mexico 114 245 415 280 270 270
Morocco 600 580 540 700 500 700
New Zealand 280 285 270 295 280 310
Norway 700 670 710 660 700 700
Philippines 1,325 2,320 2,000 3,065 2,200 2,500
Russia 3,190 3,805 4,190 3,700 4,900 3,900
Serbia 660 595 620 745 650 750
South Africa 390 470 550 515 575 550
Switzerland 1,800 1,950 2,180 2,175 2,300 2,300
Thailand 400 545 1,070 910 850 950
Turkey 260 275 315 350 325 375
Ukraine 1,670 1,510 1,370 1,100 1,500 1,100
United States 22,250 20,870 23,110 23,825 23,500 23,700
Venezuela 5 316 622 606 400 400
Vietnam 95 75 350 220 175 200
Total 96,931 100,007 105,630 106,978 112,192 109,072
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For each non-producing country, the balance between imports and exports was used in order to remove double-counting
from these trade figures.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis December 2012