HPQ Silicon: The Emerging Low Cost Silicon Metal Producer
Ab32 panel powerpoint 4
1. Spring 2013 OC Meeting
CARB: Injecting Carbon-Free
Challenge & Intrigue into the
Western Market
A fundamental look at the CA power
markets before and after AB32
2. Agenda
• Introduction to Genscape
• Power fundamentals pre/post AB32
• Congestion in SP15
• Conclusions
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3.
4. Genscape Power Products
• Power RT
– Frequency events
– Infrared Plant Coverage
– Power/Tran data feeds
• Transmission RT
• WindCast IQ
– CAISO
– BPA
• Month-Ahead Outlook (FTR)
• Country Reports (Europe)
• PowerIQ
– CAISO, WECC, ERCOT, PJM
MISO, NY/NE
6. What AB32 did or didn’t do
• Study Period is Dec 2012/Jan 2013
– 1/1/2013 Market mechanisms take effect and are legally enforceable
– HL hours HE 7-22 Mon-Sat
– No major capacity additions
– Avoids effects of season maintenance
• Fundamentals
– Demand
– Imports
– Supply
– Unit outages
– Heat Rates
– Congestion
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15. The SCE_PCT Nomogram constraint
SCE_PCT is a nomogram(constraint) that is sets a penalty when ratio of SCE
imports to internal load is violated
– A nomogram is a set of operating or scheduling rules which are used to ensure
that simultaneous operating limits are respected in order to meet NERC and
WECC reliability standards
By adhering to this import limit, the SCE system would be able to survive a
total separation from the transmission grid external to SCE’s system and retain
approximately 40% of its load that would be supplied by the generation
internal to SCE’s system.
Formula= .6*(SCE total load-CDWR pump load-MWD pump load)+CDWR pump
load-20% SONGs gen
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18. Conclusion
• AB32 did not change imports considerably
• AB32 has not changed the dispatch order considerably
• SP/NP spread driven by congestion (SCE_PCT)
• SCE_PCT is now the main driver of SP15 congestion
– It has increased more in magnitude than frequency
My take:
• The addition of a carbon adder effected the units in SP more than NP
– SP gas stack burns more gas/MW of demand than NP
• Specific units that can relieve the SCE_PCT constraint must have been
impacted more by AB32 thus creating much higher shadow pricing
– Increased wind minimizes the SCE_PCT shadow price
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19. Thank You
Chris Jylkka Gary Waxman
West Regional Director Sales Director
cjylkka@genscape.com gwaxman@genscape.com
617 790-0915 509-863-6499
Erik Schwartz
Sales Director
eschwartz@genscape.com
(202)212-9021
Louisville Boston Boulder Amsterdam
Genscape, Inc. Genscape, Inc. Genscape, Inc. Genscape International, Inc.
445 E. Market Street 177 Huntington Ave. 1215 Spruce Street Damrak 20A
Suite 200 Suite 2100 Suite 201 1012 LH Amsterdam
Louisville, KY 40202 Boston, MA 02115 Boulder, CO 80302 The Netherlands
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Editor's Notes
This is the Gratuitous Sales Pitch part of the Presentation. Makejoke about Genscape moving the market?
We offer a package that is the best-in-class for market fundamentals and insight with data and intelligence at a very micro level. With 150+ years of energy market and model development experience and 10+ years in the electricity market space. In the intelligence space we cover multiple markets with dedicated analyst teams for each market supported by staff meteorologists. 25 of the top 25 wholesale power sellers are our clients and we have over 50 clients.
Fairly static, note the seasonal dip during the December holidays
Explain green is aggregate imports, red is SW and blue in PNW imports.There were some fluctuations in mid Jan as lack of precipitation reduced PNW imports but these were made up by imports from the SW.
We monitor 55% of all capacity over 50MW and over 65% of all natural gas plants and 60% of all the plant in southern CA
Can see there is a very linear relationship
SP15 congestion in from another perspective (note January of last year)
I wouldn’t say there is a statistical correlation but there may be a relationship.
This constraint is different than the more traditional constraint
