Rabid Transit report - how transit is affecting real estate prices

1. An in-depth analysis of the current state and future impact of mass transit
on commercial real estate in the Greater Toronto Area.
Toronto Rapid Transit
Accelerating success.
A Knowledge Leader Publication.

2. Downtown
Union Station Hub
Midtown
Central North
Central East
GTA North
GTA East
GTA West
Pearson
International
Airport
Billy
Bishop
Airport
Introduction
KEY INSIGHTS >
• The share of GTA office space that is currently within walking distance of rapid public
transit is only 45% of total space.
• 60% of all GTA office space that is within walking distance of rapid public transit is in Class
AAA or Class A buildings.
• The GTA markets (Downtown, Midtown and Central North), with more than 60% of their
office space within walking distance to public transit, are performing well as these markets
have higher average rental rates and lower average vacancy rates than the rest of the GTA.
• These markets are seeing higher asking rental rates, lower vacancy rates, fast pre-leasing
and a willingness to pay higher rents by tenants for office space that’s close to public
transit.
• Throughout the GTA, more than 2.5 million SF of office space is under construction that’s
within walking distance of a rapid public transit station.
• Recently throughout the GTA many office buildings that are within walking distance to
rapid transit have continually experienced steady positive absorption. For example, Q2,
2015 absorption numbers: walking distance space (+117,870), non-walking distance space
(-60,937).
With numerous levels of government focused
on expanding the Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA)
rapid public transit infrastructure, the region
has a great opportunity to further advance
its position as one of North America’s most
competitive office markets. Daily average
commutes within the GTA are continuing
to rise and are now at 65.6 minutes, as the
current transit infrastructure is over capacity1.
The region’s highway infrastructure is
especially burdened and has little to no room
for expansion, placing greater importance
on using and expanding rapid public transit
(subway, Go Train and light rail). Although
driving remains the region’s most-used
commuting option, more Torontonians are
choosing to use rapid public transit to get
to work than ever before with an average of
more than one million customer-subway-trips
each weekday2. In turn, many businesses are
explicitly demanding space within some of
the few Greater Toronto office employment
districts where rapid public transit is
accessible within walking distance. For this
report, we define within walking distance as
being located within a radius of 400 meters
or less from a rapid transit station (see
methodology). Based on this growing shift
in demand, what are the relationships within
the GTA between commercial real estate and
rapid public transit?
Our research confirms there is an increased
demand and willingness to pay a premium
for office space within walking distance of
rapid public transit. With the two rapid public
transit lines currently under construction
and five proposed projects, the GTA’s
future commercial real estate leasing
and investment landscape will change
considerably. This report provides an
overview of some of the broad - overlying
results from Colliers International’s extensive
analysis of office leasing and transportation
within the GTA.
GTA Major Highways
Current TTC Subway
Current GO Rail Transit
Smart Track (Proposed)
Eglinton Crosstown
(Under Construction)
Sheppard East LRT (Proposed)
Finch West LRT (Proposed)
Hurontario - Main LRT (Proposed)
Toronto-York Spadina Subway
Extension (Under Construction)
Scarborough Subway
Extension (Proposed)
0 10
Kilometers
SPARK | TORONTO RAPID TRANSIT collierscanada.com/research

3. 76%
87%
64%
5%
0%
29%
5%
45%
Downtown
Total
Midtown Total Central North
Total
Central East
Total
GTA North
Total
GTA East
Total
GTA West
Total
GTA Total
Percentage of Total SF
Current Transit
• In most markets in which rapid public transit
is available, office space that is within
walking distance to transit has a very low
average vacancy rate and higher average
rents, across all building classes.
• In the GTA, the average rent for buildings
that are within walking distance is about
$7.00 more per SF than buildings that are
not walking distance.
• The Midtown market has the highest
percentage of office space that’s within
walking distance of a rapid public transit
station at 87% compared with 76% for the
Downtown market and 64% for the Central
North.
• The GTA North market has no office space
that’s within walking distance of a rapid
public transit station compared with just
5% for both the Central East and GTA West
markets.
76%
87%
64%
5%
0%
29%
5%
45%
Downtown
Total
Midtown
Total
Central North
Total
Central East
Total
GTA North
Total
GTA East
Total
GTA West
Total
GTA Total
Percentage of Total SF
Percentage of Total SF
Percentage of office space within walking
distance of a rapid transit stop by market
ACCESS EXTENDS BEYOND THE CORE
Comparative vacancy and rental rates for
office space that is within walking distance of
a rapid transit stop and space that is not within
walking distance by market
WALKABILITY ENHANCES DEMAND
• The average square feet per building, for
buildings that are within walking distance of
a transit station is much higher than those
that are not within walking distance (163,691
SF vs. 73,797 SF in the GTA).
AVERAGE BUILDING
WITHIN 400M TO TRANSIT
BUILDING SIZE: 163,691 SF
AVERAGE BUILDING NOT
WITHIN 400M TO TRANSIT
BUILDING SIZE: 73,797 SF
Comparative average building size for office
space that is within walking distance of a
rapid transit stop and space that is not within
walking distance by market
ACCESS TO TRANSIT SUPPORTS HIGHER DENSITIES
WALKING DISTANCE
TO TRANSIT
YES - NO
MARKET CLASS
VACANCY
RATE (%)
W. AVG. GROSS
RENTAL RATE
($/SF)
YES GTA TOTAL A 4.8% $36.93
NO GTA TOTAL A 7.4% $29.67
In the GTA, the average rent for Class A
buildings that are within walking distance is
about $7.25 more (20% higher) per SF than
Class A buildings that are not walking distance,
while also having a lower average vacancy rate.
CLASS A PERFORMANCE
Downtown
Total
Midtown
Total
Central
North Total
Central
East Total
GTA East
Total
GTA North
Total
GTA West
Total
GTA Total
AAA 100% 100%
A 78% 98% 85% 9% 56% 0% 7% 46%
B 64% 91% 46% 2% 13% 0% 3% 38%
C 65% 60% 9% 2% 12% 0% 2% 30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
PercentageofIndividualClassTotal
Downtown
Total
Midtown
Total
Central
North Total
Central
East Total
GTA East
Total
GTA North
Total
GTA West
Total
GTA Total
AAA 100% 100%
A 78% 98% 85% 9% 56% 0% 7% 46%
B 64% 91% 46% 2% 13% 0% 3% 38%
C 65% 60% 9% 2% 12% 0% 2% 30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
PercentageofIndividualClassTotal
• In every market, Class A buildings have the
highest share of all buildings in the same
class within walking distance to a transit
station. This is the result of a continual
clustering of Class A space 400m to transit.
• This clustering of high-quality buildings that
are close to rapid public transit will continue,
with more than 2.5 million SF of Class A class
office space currently under construction that
is within walking distance to a station.
Percentage of office space (by individual
building class) within walking distance of a
rapid transit stop by market
GTA Class A rental and vacancy rates
Opportunity: Future transit will provide an opportunity within certain office markets that are currently not served by rapid transit
such as the GTA West and Central East.
• The average sale price per SF for all GTA office buildings sold in Q1, 2015 that are walking distance to transit was $421 compared to $197 for
buildings not within walking distance.
PURCHASERS HAVE PAID A PREMIUM
MIDTOWN
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 2.8% $39.69
NO 4.0% $32.66
GTA NORTH
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES -
NO 8.3% $27.30
GTA EAST
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 11.1% $29.79
NO 5.1% $22.36
DOWNTOWN
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 3.0% $55.44
NO 1.8% $42.81
CENTRAL NORTH
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 2.1% $39.26
NO 1.1% $33.73
CENTRAL EAST
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 0.0% $17.12
NO 5.7% $27.74
GTA WEST
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 9.3% $33.08
NO 10.0% $27.38
GTA TOTAL
Walking Distance
to Transit Yes-No
Vacancy
Rate (%)
W. Avg. Gross
Rental Rate ($/SF)
YES 3.2% $34.32
NO 7.0% $27.23
Walking Distance to
Transit Yes-No
Class Sale Price per SF
YES A $353
NO A $201
Walking Distance to
Transit Yes-No
Class Sale Price per SF
YES C $341
NO C $260
Walking Distance to
Transit Yes-No
Class Sale Price per SF
YES B $375
NO B $214
SPARK | TORONTO RAPID TRANSIT collierscanada.com/research

4. Downtown
Union Station Hub
Midtown
Central North
Central East
GTA North
GTA East
GTA West
Pearson
International
Airport
Billy
Bishop
Airport
Downtown
Union Station Hub
Midtown
Central North
Central EastC stt
GTA North
GTA East
GTA West
Pearson
International
Airport
Billy
Bishop
Airport
Future Transit
• Two future areas of opportunity that
currently are not connected to rapid public
transit and are experiencing higher vacancy
rates are in the GTA West and Central East.
AIRPORT CORPORATE CENTRE
• Within the GTA West, primarily the Airport
Corporate Centre (ACC), which is already
one of the GTA’s largest office submarkets
(about 6 million SF of office space),
could see a large transformation with the
completion of SmartTrack (current public
transit travel time from Airport Corporate
Centre to Downtown: 65 minutes; with
SmartTrack: 24 minutes).
• Only one existing building in the Airport
Corporate Centre would be within
walking distance of the proposed stop. An
opportunity would be to connect the current
office stock and develop new, higher-
density, transit-available space in the Airport
Corporate Centre that’s near to the proposed
station. The availability of rapid public transit
and a better downtown connection could
help this area better compete in attracting
tenants.
DON MILLS / EGLINTON
• Within the Central East, particularly Don Mills/
Eglinton, should become more competitive
in regards to office leasing once the Eglinton
LRT is complete. The office buildings
within this area are currently spread out,
low-density and primarily Class B. These
buildings could be redeveloped to increase
density within walking distance of the
eventual stops. A signal of change might
already be apparent as the large Celestica
site at the corner of Don Mills and Eglinton
was sold to numerous developers that aim
to create an office, retail and residential
mixed-use community on the site.3
GTA Major Highways
Current TTC Subway
Current GO Rail Transit
Smart Track (Proposed)
Eglinton Crosstown
(Under Construction)
Sheppard East LRT (Proposed)
Finch West LRT (Proposed)
Hurontario - Main LRT (Proposed)
Toronto-York Spadina Subway
Extension (Under Construction)
Scarborough Subway
Extension (Proposed)
Area of Opportunity
Don Mills / Eglinton
Area of Opportunity
Airport Corporate Centre
AREAS OF OPPORTUNITY
• Only 18% of all GTA office space is currently
within walking distance of the proposed or
under construction transit stations.
• Right now, there is a modest amount of
office space within 400 metres of proposed
and under construction transit projects.
That’s because numerous offices in markets
without high order transit were built closer
to highway interchanges, relying on cars for
transportation. However, as the availability
of rapid transit increases throughout the
GTA, these new lines might encourage more
developments to be located close to public
transit stations.
0 0 0 0 0
0.463672452
0
0.230564879
0.353388272
0
0.805185309
0.733751963
0.414530467
0.310893524
0.237593212
0.437455674
0.503676173
0.925975276
0.167835871
0.226700449
0.341680515
0.158102444
0.695551556
0.249918
0.142935554
0.074024724
0.02697882 0.039547589
0.243789018
0.06733158 0.066855233 0.082061447
SF 400m to
Eglinton LRT
(under
construction)
SF 400m to Finch
LRT
400m to
Hurontario LRT
400m to
Scarborough
400m to Sheppard
East LRT
400m to Smart
Track
SF 400m to
Spadina Subway
Extension (under
construction)
SF 400m to Any
Extension
AAA A B C
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
46%
0%
23%
35%
0%
81%
73%
41%
31%
24%
44%
50%
93%
17%
23%
34%
16%
70%
25%
14%
7%
3% 4%
24%
7% 7% 8%
SF 400m to
Eglinton LRT
SF 400m to Finch
LRT
400m to
Hurontario LRT
400m to
Scarborough
400m to Sheppard
East LRT
400m to Smart
Track
400m to Spadina
Ext
SF 400m to Any
Extension
AAA A B C
46%
81%
73%
50%
93%
70%
AAA A B C
Share of total GTA office space that is within 400m of a future transit stop by building class
EGLINTON LRT SPADINA EXTENSION FAVOUR CLASS B SPACE
MARKET
PERCENTAGE OF
TOTAL BUILDINGS
PERCENTAGE OF
TOTAL SF
DOWNTOWN 11% 22%
MIDTOWN 23% 22%
CENTRAL NORTH 6% 8%
CENTRAL EAST 15% 19%
GTA NORTH 1% 1%
GTA EAST 32% 40%
GTA WEST 11% 14%
GTA TOTAL 12% 18%
Percentage of total buildings and office space
(SF) that is currently within walking distance of
every possible future transit stop by market
• 25% of the current office space that is within walking distance of the proposed transit stations is Class B space. Some of this Class B office
space could be redeveloped to take advantage of being near the transit expansions.
• When examining the only transit expansions that are currently under construction, the Eglinton Crosstown LRT and Toronto-York Spadina subway
extension, more than half of the current office space that will be within walking distance of a rapid transit station is in a Class B building (50%
and 70% respectively). An opportunity exists to upgrade some of this space before the expansions are completed.
0 10
Kilometers
SPARK | TORONTO RAPID TRANSIT collierscanada.com/research

5. • If all transit expansion projects were built, the percentage of current total buildings and office space (SF) within walking distance of a transit station would
increase in every market.
• If every transit expansion were to be built, more than half of all current office space (SF) in the GTA would be within walking distance of transit stations.
• The numerous under construction and proposed transit expansions will increase office leasing competition throughout the GTA, as more employment areas
will have access to rapid transit.
• The public transit connectivity of the Downtown office market would improve as more office space will be efficiently connected to more areas of the GTA.
55%
74%
35%
4%
0%
17%
4%
25%
60%
82%
39%
18%
1%
38%
14%
34%
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
Percentage of Buildings (currently) Percentage of Buildings (including expansions)
55%
74%
35%
4%
0%
17%
4%
60%
82%
39%
18%
1%
38%
14%
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total
Percentage of Buildings (currently) Percentage of Buildings (including expansions)
55%
74%
35%
4%
0%
17%
4%
60%
82%
39%
18%
1%
38%
14%
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total
Percentage of Buildings (currently) Percentage of Buildings (including expansions)
Percentage of buildings that are within 400m of current only and current/future combined transit stops
76%
87%
64%
5%
0%
29%
5%
45%
80%
91%
67%
23%
1%
48%
19%
53%
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
Percentage of SF (currently) Percentage of SF (including expansions)
Percentage of office space that is within 400m of current only and current/future combined transit stops
76%
87%
64%
5%
0%
29%
5%
80%
91%
67%
23%
1%
48%
19%
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West To
Percentage of SF (currently) Percentage of SF (including expansions)
Total number of office buildings that are currently within 400m of each future transit stop by market
Future Transit Snapshot
• SmartTrack would have the biggest impact on the current office stock in the GTA (approximately 72 buildings and 17,857,371 SF of current office
space would be within walking distance of proposed SmartTrack stops).
• Major office markets that would be impacted by the SmartTrack expansion are: the Downtown, GTA West, GTA East and GTA North.
• The Eglinton and Hurontario LRT stops have the second and third highest amount of current office buildings and SF within walking distance to them.
Current Future Transit
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
# of Bldgs 400m to
Eglinton LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Finch LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Hurontario LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Scarborough
# of Bldgs 400m to
Sheppard East LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Smart Track
# of Bldgs 400m to
Spadina Ext
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
SF 400m to Eglinton
LRT
SF 400m to Finch LRT SF 400m to
Hurontario LRT
SF 400m to
Scarborough
SF 400m to Sheppard
East LRT
SF 400m to Smart
Track
SF 400m to Spadina
Ext
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
SF 400m to Eglinton
LRT
SF 400m to Finch LRT SF 400m to
Hurontario LRT
SF 400m to
Scarborough
SF 400m to Sheppard
East LRT
SF 400m to Smart
Track
SF 400m to Spadina
Ext
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
Total office space (SF) that is currently within 400m of each future transit stop by market
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
SF 400m to Eglinton
LRT (under
construction)
SF 400m to Finch
LRT
SF 400m to
Hurontario LRT
SF 400m to
Scarborough
SF 400m to Sheppard
East LRT
SF 400m to Smart
Track
SF 400m to Spadina
Subway Extension
(under construction)
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
# of Bldgs 400m to
Eglinton LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Finch LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Hurontario LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Scarborough
# of Bldgs 400m to
Sheppard East LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Smart Track
# of Bldgs 400m to
Spadina Ext
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
# of Bldgs 400m to
Eglinton LRT (under
construction)
# of Bldgs 400m to
Finch LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Hurontario LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Scarborough
# of Bldgs 400m to
Sheppard East LRT
# of Bldgs 400m to
Smart Track
# of Bldgs 400m to
Spadina Subway
Extension (under
construction)
Downtown Total Midtown Total Central North Total Central East Total GTA North Total GTA East Total GTA West Total GTA Total
SPARK | TORONTO RAPID TRANSIT collierscanada.com/research

6. Methodology
Colliers International proprietary Q1, 2015 GTA
office market data was primarily used for this
report.
High occupancy rail and LRT (not including
buses and streetcars) is the only form of
rapid public transit used in our report as the
numerous papers reviewed, along with the
Colliers 2014 Tenant Survey have found this
mode of transit to have the greatest effect
on commercial business location decisions5.
For the current transit analysis, TTC subway
and GO Transit rail routes were used. For the
future transit analysis we used the following
routes: Eglinton Crosstown LRT (under
construction), Toronto-York Spadina subway
extension (under construction), SmartTrack
(including the Scarborough subway extension)
(proposed), Finch West LRT (proposed),
Hurontario-Main LRT (proposed), and the
Sheppard East LRT (proposed).
Geospatial evaluation was then performed to
determine whether or not a building is within
or not within walking distance of a current or
future transit station. Every office building in
the GTA across all asset classes (AAA, A, B
and C) were evaluated. A walking distance of a
400-metre radius from a major transit station
was used. This distance was used as the
Ontario Ministry of Transportation and other
transit agencies set 400 meters as a standard
walking distance6. Vacancy rates, rental rates,
absorption, deal velocity (days on the market),
building class and other relevant real estate
data was then examined for each building.
Results were also calculated across every GTA
office Submarket, Market and the GTA as a
whole. Examination looked at
1.) Whether a building is within walking
distance of current rapid public transit 2.)
Walking distance to a proposed or under
construction transit station 3.) Walking
distance to a current or future transit station
combined. For this SPARK Report only
some of the Market and GTA total results are
reported. For more detailed information please
contact Colliers International.
1. University of Waterloo, Canadian Index of WellBeing (2014).
2. Toronto Transit Commission, Subway Ridership (2013).
3. Real Estate Management Industry News, Celestica to Sell Toronto Property to Developers (2015).
4. City of Toronto, Toronto Employment Survey (2014); Strategic Regional Research Alliance, The New Geography of Office Location (2011).
5. Colliers International, 2014 Tenant Survey (2014).
6. Ontario Ministry of Transportation, Transit-Supportive Land Use Planning Guidelines (1992).
References
WEIGHTED AVERAGE ASKING NET RENT:
The dollar amount requested by landlords for an available space, expressed as an average based on the weight of available space.
AVAILABILITY:
The amount of available space and available space to be delivered to the market within six months, divided by the market’s inventory base including
those future deliveries. Available space is space that is available for lease, and may or may not be vacant.
NET ABSORPTION:
The net change in physically occupied space between the current measurement period, and the last measurement period. It can be either positive
or negative.
VACANCY:
The amount of vacant space divided by the building inventory base. Vacant space is physically unoccupied, and it may or may not be available for
lease or sublease. This is physical vacancy. It is not determined whether a tenant is paying rent on the space.
Glossary of Terms
Conclusion
Office space that’s accessible to rapid public
transit is performing well partially because
supply is being out-paced by demand.
This is the result of numerous designated
employment districts within the GTA having no
access to rapid public transit. With two under
construction and five proposed rapid transit
projects throughout the GTA, competition in
attracting companies amongst different office
markets should increase, as the supply of
rapid transit will become available in markets
currently without access. While increasing
regional competition, the expansions should
also further strengthen the Downtown core’s
accessibility, as more communities will be
better connected to Toronto’s largest office
market. As for the individual expansions, we
found that SmartTrack, then the Eglinton
Crosstown LRT and then the Hurontario-
Main LRT could have the greatest immediate
influence on the current stock of office space
in the GTA. Overall, office leasing tenants
and commercial real estate purchasers are
continually increasing their demand for
properties that are close to a rapid public
transit station. The location of the proposed
and under construction transit stops could
greatly change the GTA’s office landscape.
This report has presented some of the initial
findings of Colliers International’s larger analysis
of the relationships that exist between the
current/future transportation infrastructure
within the GTA and commercial real estate.
This work builds upon research by other
organizations such as the City of Toronto
and the Strategic Research Alliance 4. Our
larger examination further studies the existing
relationships between vacancy rates, rental rates,
absorption, deal velocity, and other important
real estate metrics with transportation (when
holding other factors constant) in the GTA. This
detailed information is also available at the
more defined geographical submarket level –
such as the financial core, downtown west, and
downtown east) – where the results are more
robust and neighborhood specific.
SPARK | TORONTO RAPID TRANSIT collierscanada.com/research

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market analysis. We frame this in a
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JOHN ARNOLDI
Executive Managing Director | Toronto Brokerage
Phone: +1 416 643 3733
Email: john.arnoldi@colliers.com
KIMBERLEE WEST
Team Leader, Market Intelligence | Toronto
Phone: +1 416 643 3776
Email: kimberlee.west@colliers.com
SHAWN GILLIGAN
Market Intelligence Coordinator | Toronto
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Email: shawn.gilligan@colliers.com
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Email: david.parker@colliers.com
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