2019 Real Estate Update with Amanda Hoyle of Metrostudy
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What: Real Estate Update hosted by The Chamber For a Greater Chapel Hill-Carrboro When: Wednesday, December 11, 2019 from 8:30-10am Where: Silverspot Cinema in Chapel Hill, NC Guest Presenter: The event featured special guest presenter, Amanda Hoyle of Metrostudy. Learn more about Amanda and Metrostudy here: https://www.metrostudy.com/staff/amanda-hoyle/ Panelists: The event also featured a panel discussion moderated by Amanda Hoyle and including: - Ed Billings of Terra Nova Global Properties (www.terranovaglobal.com/edbillings) - Tim Jezisek of Grubb Properties (https://grubbproperties.com/about/) - Jeff Furman of Northwood Ravin (https://nwrliving.com/about/our-team/jeff-furman/) - Chanel Haugh of Haugh Realty Advisors (www.haughra.com/meet-our-team) About the event: The annual real estate update is one of six forums in the 2019 Policy Series coordinated by The Chamber's Government Affairs Committee. In this forum, the 100 guests got the succinct state of residential and commercial real estate in our region and community. About the Policy Series: This forum is part of the 2019 Policy Series and is sponsored by Cardinal Innovations Healthcare, Durham Tech, Haugh Realty Advisors, and Silverspot Cinema. More: https://business.carolinachamber.org/events/details/policy-forum-real-estate-update-5627
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2019 Real Estate Update with Amanda Hoyle of Metrostudy
- 1. Public Policy Forum: Real Estate Update Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce December 11, 2019 Siverspot Cinema Chapel Hill, NC 1
- 2. Phone: 919.951.9010 Email: ahoyle@metrostudy.com Web: www.metrostudy.com Twitter: @MetrostudyNC 2 Amanda Hoyle Regional Director Raleigh & Triad NC
- 3. IN THE NEWS 3 Source: SmartAsset, Aug. 2019 Source: SmartAsset, May 2019
- 4. IN THE NEWS 4 Source: SmartAsset, July 2019 Source: SmartAsset, Aug. 2019
- 5. MYERS MILLENNIAL DESIRABILITY INDEX Rank CBSA MDI 1 Dallas 2 Houston 3 Austin 4 Phoenix 5 Orlando 6 Denver 7 Washington,DC 8 Raleigh 9 Seattle 10 Nashville 158.0 157.3 138.5 137.6 131.2 128.7 114.0 109.6 108.5 107.5
- 6. U.S. CENSUS: NC’s FASTEST GROWING CITIES & TOWNS 6 Top NC Municipalities by Percentage Growth Top NC Municipalities by Numeric Growth
- 7. BABY CHASING BABY BOOMERS 7www.metrostudy.com Rank Index 1 Charlotte 140 2 Austin 133 3 Raleigh 132 4 Nashville 126 5 Dallas 116 6 Denver 111 7 Columbus 107 8 Orlando 107 9 Las Vegas 105 10 Seattle 104
- 8. ‘EMERGING TRENDS IN REAL ESTATE 2020’ By PWC and Urban Land Institute 8 Overall Real Estate Prospects - 2020 Homebuilding Prospects - 2020
- 9. U.S. VS. TRIANGLE JOB GROWTH TREND 9
- 10. UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS North Carolina 10
- 14. TRIANGLE OFFICE MARKET TBJ SPACE SURVEY 14
- 15. TRIANGLE RETAIL MARKET TBJ SPACE SURVEY 15
- 16. ORANGE COUNTY: OFFICE MARKET TBJ SPACE SURVEY 16
- 17. ORANGE COUNTY: RETAIL MARKET TBJ SPACE SURVEY 17
- 19. www.metrostudy.com Home Prices & Affordability 19
- 20. 20 PROPERTY ANALYSIS: ANNUAL HOME SALES Raleigh/Durham
- 21. DECELERATION IN PRICE GROWTH Raleigh/Durham 21
- 22. PROPERTY ANALYSIS: AVERAGE HOME SALE PRICES Raleigh/Durham 22
- 23. MARKET SHARE IN HOME SALE PRICE GROWTH Raleigh/Durham 23
- 24. AFFORDABILITY TRENDS 24www.metrostudy.com 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 %ofHouseholdsThatCanAffordMedianPriceHome MedianHomePrice Affordability & Home Buying Power Existing Home Price New Home Price Existing Home Affordability New Home Affordability Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, Metrostudy
- 25. AFFORDABILITY TRENDS – NORTH CAROLINA & TOP CBSAS 25www.metrostudy.com Existing Home Affordability New Home Affordability North Carolina – Total Raleigh-Cary Durham-Chapel Hill Charlotte Greensboro-High Point Winston-Salem Burlington 62.6% 44.4% 61.8% 52.9% 53.8% 46.1% 64.5% 50.1% 69.5% 50.9% 69.5% 54.2% 65.9% 46.6% * Percentage of Households in the local area that can afford the median priced, single-family home. Qualifying income is based on an estimated monthly payment that assumes the current median detached closing price, 20% down payment, property taxes and current 30-year fixed mortgage. The ratio assumes 30% of the buyer’s household income is used towards housing
- 26. AFFORDABLE HOUSING INITIATIVES 26 . ➢ Durham Affordable Housing Bond passed with 76% of the vote $95 million toward preserving, renovating and building 2,400 affordable rental units and housing options for Durham’s low-income population. ➢ Nov. 2018: Chapel Hill Affordable Housing Bond - $10 million toward construction of 400 new affordable units, plus repairs for more than 300 current units. ➢ 2016: Orange County Affordable Housing Bond - $5 million toward a $13 million plan to use local, state and federal money to house 1,000 families and individuals in five years.
- 28. TRIANGLE MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE Closings vs. Inventory 28 TMLS Inventory Months of Supply MLS Closings +4.3% YTD MLS Inventory -6.5% MLS New Listings +2.9% YTD
- 29. • Equity Wealth is at an All-Time High • Low Mortgage Rates are new “normal” • The Existing Housing Stock is Old… • Owners are Staying in their Homes Longer. • Millennials are Buying and Remodeling HOUSING NEEDS MINDSET IS CHANGING
- 30. EMERGING TREND: Single-Family Rental Market • Owning a home may not be as important today but conventional product is still valued. • Experienced (or witnessed) pain in the Great Recession. • The “sharing economy” is now the norm (e.g., Uber, Lyft, Airbnb). Renters by choice. Shifting Mindset Leads to Change 30 • Accustomed to monthly payment • More important to have experiences than stuff. Prioritize convenience, want to live closer to work. Flexibility is important. • Do it for the dogs – or kids! Desire for additional space beyond what traditional apartments offer.
- 31. RALEIGH/DURHAM APARTMENT MARKET AptIndex, August 2019 survey 31
- 32. RALEIGH-CARY MSA BUILDING PERMITS 32 DURHAM-CHAPEL HILL MSA BUILDING PERMITS
- 33. ORANGE COUNTY BUILDING PERMITS 33 CHATHAM COUNTY BUILDING PERMITS
- 34. Closings vs. Inventory 34 ORANGE COUNTY: NET MIGRATION PROJECTIONS CHATHAM COUNTY NET MIGRATION PROJECTIONS
- 35. Raleigh/Durham New Home Construction Market Metrostudy Fall 2019 Survey 35
- 36. ANNUAL STARTS AND CLOSINGS BY METROSTUDY MARKET Fall 2019 36www.metrostudy.com
- 37. ANNUAL STARTS VS. ANNUAL CLOSINGS Raleigh/Durham 37 12,717 12,535 Annual Starts: +1.2% Annual Closings: +4.8%
- 38. ANNUAL STARTS CHANGE YOY – MSA COMPARISONS Fall 2019 38www.metrostudy.com
- 39. New Home Communities & Submarkets 39
- 40. TOP ACTIVE COMMUNITIES Raleigh/Durham 40 Flowers Plantation Wendell Falls Briar Chapel 5401 North Amberly Ellis Crossing Southern Pointe Smith Farm 12 Oaks Woodbury
- 41. ANNUAL STARTS & CLOSINGS BY SUBMARKET Raleigh/Durham 41 Starts YoY: Closings YoY: 9% 8% 4% 27% 10% 6% 1% -13% -17% -1% 18% -6% 1% -1% -23% -11% -19% 16% 15% 32% -27% 6% -39% 2%
- 42. CHATHAM COUNTY Annual Starts & Closings 42
- 44. ORANGE COUNTY Annual Starts & Closings 44
- 47. ALAMANCE COUNTY Annual Starts & Closings 47
- 48. Future Forecast & Key Takeaways Fall 2019
- 50. PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY 50 Source: FreddieMac
- 52. The Housing Market Cycle 52
- 53. The Housing Market Cycle 53
- 54. The Housing Market Cycle 54
- 55. The Housing Market Cycle 55
- 56. The Housing Market Cycle 56
- 57. The Housing Market Cycle 57
- 58. The Housing Market Cycle 58
- 59. The Housing Market Cycle 59
- 60. The Housing Market Cycle 60
- 61. The Housing Market Cycle 61
- 62. The Housing Market Cycle 62
- 63. KEY TAKEAWAYS ▪ Carolina Advantage: Headwinds are more national than local ▪ Lack of affordable supply is pushing buyers to new products and new locations ▪ Barbells of demographics – Millennials & Baby Boomers – support the need for more diverse housing ▪ Public sector sentiment in the big cities is shifting away from NIMBY and toward attainability; but smaller suburban communities are still struggling to find that balance ▪ Peak performance is possible in 2020/2021 63
- 64. Phone: 919.951.9010 Email: ahoyle@metrostudy.com Web: www.metrostudy.com Twitter: @MetrostudyNC 64 Amanda Hoyle Regional Director Raleigh & Triad NC Thank you.