Managing Emerging Technologies
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Managing Emerging Technologies
- 1. Managing EmergingManaging Emerging TechnologiesTechnologies G. Lawrence Sanders
- 2. Overview Predicting the future. Return on investment. Basic research and emerging technologies. Technological life cycle. The challenge of the life cycle. Mechanisms for fostering technological innovation.
- 3. PredictionsPredictions The first five predictions are from The Kansas City Star, Jan 17, 1995. The last prediction was described inThe first five predictions are from The Kansas City Star, Jan 17, 1995. The last prediction was described in Business Week, March 6, 1995, pp. 78-79.Business Week, March 6, 1995, pp. 78-79. "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." • Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949 "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." • Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
- 4. Predictions cont.Predictions cont. "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." • The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957. "But what ... is it good for?" • Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
- 5. Predictions cont.Predictions cont. "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." • Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977. "I personally didn't see anything useful in it so we never gave it another thought." • Gordon E. Moore co-founder of Intel recalling his reaction and subsequent rejection of a 1970s proposal for a home computer built around an early microprocessor.
- 6. Two Views of What aTwo Views of What a Manager Needs to KnowManager Needs to Know A good manager can manage any technology. – Technology is treated as a black box. – Where to apply technology is important. The how and why technology works is not. A good manager needs to understand the inner workings of technology. – Understanding leads to recognizing potential. – Understanding leads to recognizing limitations.
- 7. Current Growth &Current Growth & Productivity In USProductivity In US The US. is the low-cost producer among industrial nations with unit labor costs rising slowly ... American manufacturers are 10% to 20% more productive than German or Japanese manufacturers. “The US. has the highest productivity and the best job creation performance among the industrial countries.” • Business Week, p. 135, Oct. 9, 1995.
- 8. Current Growth &Current Growth & Productivity Fueled byProductivity Fueled by Technology?Technology? “The US. has 63 computers per 100 employed workers (including PCs at school and home) to Japan's 17.” • International Data Corp., as reported in Business Week, p. 135, Oct. 9, 1995.
- 9. A Contrary View of the RoleA Contrary View of the Role Technology on OrganizationalTechnology on Organizational PerformancePerformance “ ... looking beyond a single case at the macro economy, we see essentially no correlation between levels of investments in information technology and such business performance indexes as: sales growth, profit per employee, or shareholder value.” • P. Strasman, Business Value of Computers (New Cannon, CT: Information Electronic Press, 1990. Appeared in The New Portable MBA, 1994, Venkatraman. p 161.
- 10. Technology Enhances FirmTechnology Enhances Firm ValueValue Study conducted at MIT found a 58% to 81% return on investment for 367 large manufacturing and service firms between 1987 and 1991.
- 11. IT Supports The PrimaryIT Supports The Primary Competitive StrategiesCompetitive Strategies Differentiate products and services by Delivering unique products. Delivering customized products. Delivering higher quality products . Develop an efficient transformation process and increase input/output efficiency by: Being the low cost producer. Reducing inventory levels, lead times, etc.. Effective utilization of machines and human resources.
- 13. TechnologyTechnology Product: The function, ideas, and technical attributes present in a product or service. Process: Sequence of steps used to combine raw materials or inputs to produce a product or service. A critical purpose of information technology is to formalize or capture other technologies.
- 14. Technology CategoriesTechnology Categories Basic research takes place in the lab and in the minds of inventors and discoverers. Emerging technologies are technologies that are emerging from the realm of basic research. They are in the early stages of being being applied to solving problems and realizing opportunities.
- 15. Basic ResearchBasic Research Holographic data storage research. Uses lasers to store data as holographic imprints on crystals. Twelve times more storage per dollar. One Gbps transfer rates to CPU. IBM committed $30 million. One terabyte/second transmission using fiberoptic lines. Lucent now offers 20Gbps.
- 16. Basic ResearchBasic Research Conducted in economics, physics, engineering, chemistry, psychology, sociology, philosophy, and engineering. Very large scale integration (VLSI) research conducted at UB by Professor Sridhar. Soul Catcher Memory Chip: A 10 million megabyte chip that is connected to the optic nerve. It preserves a persons thoughts and
- 17. Emerging TechnologiesEmerging Technologies Bandwidth. Very large databases and data warehouses. Thin clients. GPS. Teledisc.
- 18. Need More BandwidthNeed More Bandwidth Rockwell Semiconductor Systems announced a 56K bps analog chip set that will run over plain old regular phone lines (PC Week 9/23/96). Cable modems can transfer up to 600K bps.
- 19. More and More BandwidthMore and More Bandwidth Broadband ISDN transfers at 155M bps. ATM asynchronous transfer mode from 155 up to 622M bps, perhaps 1G bps.
- 20. Bandwidth is EverythingBandwidth is Everything HDTV needs 155M bps bandwidth to transfer uncompressed signal. Typical novel is about 960,000 characters or about 1 megabyte (300 pages x 40 lines x 80 characters) long. A novel would then be about 10 MB (1 megabyte x 10 bits) long. We are including a conservative fudge factor.
- 21. Very Large Databases &Very Large Databases & Better Data AccessBetter Data Access Very large production databases. Data warehouse: All of the data all of the time. Data mart: Data that has been segmented in some way such as by department, by customer type, or over a time period. Data mine: Data that has been massaged in such a way as to be ready for use by analytic tools to be used in decision
- 24. Terabyte Databases forTerabyte Databases for Decision SupportDecision Support Wal-Mart Stores Inc.: 2,000 GB, 19.6 billion rows, 200 million updates/day, 48,000 SQL statements/day and 4,500 concurrent users. Used primarily to manage inventory. Sears Roebuck & Co.: 2,000 GB, 4.9 billion rows. Used as source of sales information for any location. Lucent Technologies: 1,248 GB. Equitable Life: 1,000 GB. Winter, Database Programming and Design, Sept. 1996
- 25. Terabyte Databases forTerabyte Databases for OLTP ProductionOLTP Production United Parcel Service: 3,200 GB, 1,600 concurrent users, 500,000 queries/day, 30 million updates/day. US Customs Service: 2,300 GB, 4.8 billion records, 400 million inquiries/day, 20,000 online users. Grows at 300 GB/year. TRW Information Systems & Services: 1,950 GB, 5.3 billion records, 100 million queries and 60 million updates for 50,000 users. Credit histories on 180 million consumers.
- 27. Global Positioning SystemsGlobal Positioning Systems (GPS)(GPS) Navistar (Navigation System with Timing and Ranging) consists of 24 high altitude satellites. US government has invested $10+ billion. Originally developed for DOD to coordinate the movement of planes, missiles, ships and soldiers. GPS satellites transmit their location and the time 1000 times a second. Uses triangulation based on time signal takes to reach satellite to determine location. Civilian’s told that accurate within 100 meters. Differential GPS can pinpoint location within a few feet to a centimeter.
- 29. GPS ApplicationsGPS Applications Automobiles, planes, trains and trucks. Helped rescue F16 pilot Scott O’Grady in Bosnia. He had a hand-held GPS receiver. Potential for deterring auto, truck, cargo, kidnapping & dognapping. Assistance for the blind. Keeping track of your kids. Cellular phones with built in GPS transceivers. Knowing where managers, employees and problem solvers are at all times.
- 31. GPS Applications cont.GPS Applications cont. Sports: Golf, mountaineering, sailing, biking, rowing .... Use GPS to gather statistics on crop yield. Then analyze data and determine how to optimize chemicals/fertilizer, seed and type of crop. Controlling heavy machinery. Earth movers with GPS receivers cut dirt to within centimeters of a computerized grading plan.
- 32. GPS BenefitsGPS Benefits Easy way to locate vehicles. Operator response not necessary. Flexible scheduling. Reduced communication costs (cellular & long distance). Software can be linked up to accounting, mapping packages, blueprints & construction plans Transceivers $2K - $6K depending on software options + satellite fee.
- 33. 22,300 miles versus 435 miles22,300 miles versus 435 miles
- 34. Craig McCaw’s HighCraig McCaw’s High Bandwidth TelediscBandwidth Teledisc 840 ($5.5 million) satellites surround the planet at low altitude. $2.2 billion to launch. Geosynchronous fixed position satellites. Cost about $100 million and orbit at 22,300 miles. View about 1/3 earth. Teledisc satellites will be 435 miles above the earth. Reduces signal delay but requires more satellites. Estimated completion date 2002. Fortune, May 1996.
- 35. The EnvironmentThe Environment Abundance of emerging technologies. Complexity of the competitive environment. Need a way to capture the dynamics of technological change and diffusion.
- 36. Field Expediency & EmergingField Expediency & Emerging TechnologiesTechnologies Sometimes it is necessary to manage innovation by the seat-of-the pants. A company has to install an immature emerging technology in order to maintain competitive or even survive in this age of short product cycle times. There are methods for conceptualizing technology and planning for technological change?
- 37. High Levels of Risk forHigh Levels of Risk for Emerging TechnologiesEmerging Technologies Unknown levels of financial risk. How much will it cost to evaluate, implement, and use emerging technology in production environment. Availability of expertise. Can the organization marshal internal expertise or use outsourcing to acquire expertise for implementing emerging technology.
- 38. Five Components of RiskFive Components of Risk Financial Risk: The risk that a technology project will not be brought in on time and on budget. Technical Risk: The risk that the technology is not ready for prime time. Project Risk: The risk that the organization does not have the people (management and technical), technologies and infrastructure to complete a project.
- 39. Five Components of RiskFive Components of Risk Functionality Risk: The risk that the technology is inappropriate for the organization. Designers did not understand needs or needs have changed. Political Risk: Technology fails because of resistance during development or after technology installed.
- 40. The Emerging TechnologyThe Emerging Technology ChallengeChallenge Where is a technology in the technology life cycle? Is there a new technology on the horizon? Has a technology reached its maximum potential? Should the organization continue investing in a mature technology? When to crossover to the new technology? How do you predict the future?
- 42. Seven Dimensions ofSeven Dimensions of Technology AcceptabilityTechnology Acceptability Functional Performance: Does the technology perform as purported? Acquisition Cost: The cost to evaluate, obtain and install technology? Ease-of-Use: Is the technology easy to use on a day-to-day basis? Interface? Controls? Operating Costs: The periodic cost of people, materials, maintenance and upgrades. adapted from Burgelman, Maidique, and Wheelwright, 1996
- 43. Seven Dimensions ofSeven Dimensions of Technology Acceptability cont.Technology Acceptability cont. Reliability: How often and during what time of the day will technology need servicing? Serviceability: How long and how much will it cost to restore technology glitches, abnormalities and failures? Personnel key? Compatibility: How does the technology mesh with other technologies and the system in general?
- 44. Technology Evaluation SheetTechnology Evaluation Sheet Client ServerClient Server Low High Acquisitioncosts Easeofuse Operatingcosts Reliability Servicability Compatibility
- 45. Forecasting the FutureForecasting the Future R e g re s s io n O n e d e p e n d e n t m e a s u re O n e o r m o re in d e p e n d e n t m e a s u re s E c o n o m e tric S e v e ra l d e p e n d e n t v a ria b le s S e v e ra l in d e p e n d e n t v a ria b le s C a u s a l (B a s e d o n S ta tis tic a l C o rre la tio n ) S m o o th in g M e th o d s D e c o m p o s itio n M e th o d s A R IM A A u to R e g re s s iv e In te g ra te d M o v in g A v e ra g e T im e S e rie s o r E xtra p o la tio n M a rk e t S u rv e y s C o n s u m e r S u rv e y s B u s in e s s E xp e n d itu re s & P ro d u c tio n E xp e rt O p in io n E xe c u tiv e s E c o n o m is ts D e lp h i F o rm a l A p p ro a c h U s in g E xp e rts J u d g e m e n ta l o r S u b je c tiv e A s s e s s m e n t M e th o d s F o re c a s tin g M e th o d s
- 46. Judgmental ForecastingJudgmental Forecasting Technological forecasting New product demand Long range planning
- 47. Delphi Developed by RandDelphi Developed by Rand CorporationCorporation Ask experts to determine what inventions and breakthroughs could be achieved and are needed in 20 years. Uses a panel coordinator to communicate in writing with experts. Group consensus is achieved by providing experts with repeated controlled feedback on consensus.
- 48. The Overall StrategyThe Overall Strategy Monitor and assess developments in information technology and identify emerging technologies with the potential for solving problems and realizing new opportunities.
- 49. What You Can DoWhat You Can Do Read trade magazines and scan science publications. Attend conferences and educational programs. Watch TV such as MSN (Microsoft & NBC) or MEU (Mind Extension University). Navigate the Web searching for new ideas.
- 50. What the Organization CanWhat the Organization Can Do to Create a TechnologicalDo to Create a Technological CultureCulture Encourage technological training and idea generation among all employees. Put together multi-disciplinary emerging technology teams to assess basic research and emerging technologies. Install and prototype an emerging technology in a production setting or in a test-bed environment which mimics the production environment.
- 51. Leadership is the Key toLeadership is the Key to SuccessSuccess Integrate technological planning into the strategic planning process. Identify potential applications of information technology that would result in greater efficiency and new or differentiated products and services. Need good project management for organizing, staffing, and implementing technology. Need the commitment of middle and senior level management towards technological solutions.
- 52. Management's Attention & Influence on a Project adapted from Hayes et al,1988 Problem identification Conceptual investigation Build prototype Pilot test Basic design Implement Management'sability toinfluenceproject Actualmanagement behaviorrelatedto project