Capitalaim commodity weekly_newsletter_10_apr_to_14_apr

Weekly Newsletter
Commodity- 10 April 2017

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FOCUS OF THE WEEK
Today, Fed Chair Janet Yellen would be speaking on the economic outlook and the monetary policy. For the
week ahead, the monthly budget statement would be released on Wednesday. The budget deficit probably
narrowed to US$150B in March, from US$192B a month ago. Upstream price index, PPI, probably
accelerated to +2.4% y/y in March, from +2.2% a month ago. Core PPI might have improved to +1.8% from
+1.5% in February. The preliminary estimate of University of Michigan index is expected to have slipped -0.3
point to 96.6 in April. The weekly initial jobless claims probably increased to 245K in the week ended April
8, from 234K a week ago. The closely-watched inflation report would be released on Friday. Headline CPI
probably eased to +2.6% y/y in March, from +2.7% in February. Core CPI might have improved o +2.3% from
+2.2% in February. Retails sales might have slipped -0.1% in March, after gaining +0.1% a month ago.
In Europe, Tuesday comes February's IP data and April's ZEW survey for the Euro zone. Meanwhile, the final
March inflation reports in German, France, Italy and Spain would be released later in the week. UK's March
inflation report would be due on Tuesday. We would also get more insight on the country's employment
conditions would a number of job data due Wednesday. Jobless claims probably dropped 10.2K in March,
after falling -11.3K a month ago. The ILO unemployment rate for the 3 months through February probably
stayed unchanged at 4.7%.
Some hard data would be released in China this week. Headline CPI, due Wednesday, might have accelerated
to +1% in March, from +0.8% in the prior month. PPI, after soaring for many months, probably eased to
+7.5% in March from +7.8% previously. Thursday comes the trade data which probably shows a surplus of
US$12.5B in March, from a deficit of US$9.1B in the prior month. Following the Trump-Xi meeting last week,
both parties agreed on a 100-day assessment on the trade issue before further discussion.
Commitments of Traders:
Speculators were bullish over the energy complex in the week ended April 4. Net LENGTH for crude oil
futures rose +10 302 contracts from a week ago to 408 382. Net LENGTH of heating oil gained +757 contracts
to 26 103 while net LENGTH for gasoline increased +5 939 contracts to 55 206. Net SHORT for natural gas
dropped -4 487 contracts to 18 360 for the week.
With the exception of platinum, speculators were bullish over the precious metal complex last week. Net
LENGTH for gold rose +17 616 contract to 155 436, while that for silver futures jumped +10 694 contracts to
101 382. For PGMs, net LENGTH for platinum dropped -916 contracts to 26 713 while that for palladium
gained +535 contracts to 21 067.

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BULLION
GOLD
Gold prices retraced gains late Friday but still notched up a second weekly rise as concerns over the Trump administration’s ability to push
through its pro-growth economic agenda underpinned safe haven demand.
Gold for April delivery settled down 0.34% at $1,243.00 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, off session highs of
$1,251.85.
Gold touched it’s highest since February 28 on Thursday, at $1,253.15 and ended the week with a gain of 1.07%.
Gold is expected to find support at [1119.40-26815] and a fall through could take it to the next support level of [1099.50-26446] Gold is expected to find its
first resistance at [1162.40-27599] and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of [1185.50-28034]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
COMMODITY EXCHANGE QUOTE S2 S1 R1 R2
GOLD COMMEX USD/OZ 1099.50 1119.40 1162.40 1185.50
GOLD MCX RS/10 GM 26446 26815 27599 28034

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SILVER
Elsewhere in precious metals trading, Silver was at $17.78 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week up 2.11%.
Silver is expected to find support at [15.50-38552] and a fall through could take it to the next support level of [14.90-37411 Silver is expected to find its first
resistance at [16.90-41402] and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of [17.80-43111]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
SILVER COMMEX USD/OZ 14.90 15.50 16.90 17.80
SILVER SEP MCX RS/KG 37411 38552 41402 43111

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ENERGIES
CRUDE OIL
Oil futures settled higher on Friday, but posted a weekly loss of around 2% as the market weighed rising shale production and record-high
stockpiles in the U.S. against efforts by major producers to cut output to reduce a global glut.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude May contract inched up 27 cents, or around 0.6%, to $47.97 a barrel by close of trade Friday, snapping
a four-session losing streak. It touched $47.01 on Wednesday, a level not seen since November 30.
For the week, the U.S. benchmark declined 81 cents, or around 1.7%, the third weekly loss in a month.
Crude oil is expected to find support at [49.90-3386] and a fall through could take it to the next support level of [47.60-3262] Crude oil is expected to find
its first resistance at [54.60-3639] and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of [56.80-3768]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
CRUDE OIL COMMEX USD/BBL 47.60 49.90 54.60 56.80
CRUDE OIL AUG MCX INR/BBL 3262 3386 3639 3768

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NATURAL GAS
Natural gas futures for April delivery rose 2.5 cents to $3.076 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly gain of around 4.6%.
In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and
Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.
Natural gas is expected to find support at [3.30-222.30] and a fall through could take it to the next support level of [3.20-214.70] Natural gas is expected to
find its first resistance at [3.60-242.20] and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of [3.75-254.50]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
NATURAL GAS COMMEX USD/MMBTU 3.20 3.30 3.60 3.75
NATURAL GAS AUG MCX INR/MMBTU 214.70 222.30 242.20 254.50

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BASE METALS
COPPER
Copper was at $2.64 a pound and ended the week down 1.42%.
In the week ahead, investors will be continuing to monitor political developments in the U.S., as Trump’s promised tax reforms come
into focus
Copper is expected to find support at [2.50-381.30] and a fall through could take it to the next support level of [2.40-377.30] Copper is expected to find its
first resistance at [2.60-391.90] and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of [2.70-398.50]
TECHNICAL LEVELS
COPPER COMMEX Cents/Lb 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70
COPPER AUG MCX INR/Kg 377.30 381.30 391.90 398.50

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Indian Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar

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Disclaimer
The recommendations made herein do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned. Readers using the
information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. The information and views contained herein are believed to be reliable but
no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of facts and opinions. Editors may or may not have trading or investment positions in the
securities mentioned herein.
Report by,
Research Analyst
Desh Deepak
_____________________________________________________________________

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