March ico outlook for Wold Coffee Market - Palestra Roberio Silva OIC

1. Outlook for the
World Coffee Market
International Coffee Council
4 – 8 March 2013
4 8 March 2013
London, England
International Coffee Organization
ICO composite indicator prices
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Feb‐2013
(In current terms)
250
200
150
US cents/lb
100
50
0
ICO composite indicator
International Coffee Organization
1

2. ICO composite indicator prices
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Feb‐2013
(In current and constant terms)
250
200
150
US cents/lb
100
50
0
ICO Composite ICO Composite [Deflated]
International Coffee Organization
ICO group indicator prices
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Feb‐2013
(In current terms)
350
300
250
200
US cents/lb
150
100
50
0
Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas
International Coffee Organization
2

3. Arbitrage: New York* ‐ London*
Monthly averages: Jan‐2000 to Feb‐2013
(In current terms)
180
160
140
120
US cents/lb
100
80
60
40
20
0
*Average price for the 2nd and 3rd positions
International Coffee Organization
Exchange rate movements
(Index: Jan‐2009=100)
110
100
90
80
70
60
March March March March March
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Brazil Colombia Indonesia
International Coffee Organization
3

4. Costs of production
(Index: 2004=100)
250
200
Colombia
150 Ecuador
Guatemala
Cuba
100 Brazil
Costa Rica
C t Ri
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
International Coffee Organization
World production
Crop years 2000/01 to 2012/13*
160
144.4
140 133.5 135.9
128.4
128 4 128.6
128 6
123.1 122.8
120 116.2 116.6
112.9 107.7 111.2
106.2
Million bags
100
80
60
40
20
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13*
*Estimated
International Coffee Organization
4

5. Production: 10 leading producers
(In thousand bags)
2011/12 2012/13* % change
Brazil 43 484 50 826 16.9%
Vietnam 24 058 22 000 -8.6%
Indonesia 8 620 11 250 30.5%
Colombia 7 653 8 500 11.1%
Ethiopia 6 798 8 100 19.1%
India 5 233 5 258 0.5%
Mexico 4 546 4 300 -5.4%
Honduras 5 903 4 900 -17.0%
Peru 5 581 4 750 -14.9%
Guatemala 3 840 3 100 -19.3%
*Estimated
International Coffee Organization
Volume and value of total exports
Calendar years 2000 ‐ 2012
120 30
100 25
80 20
Million bags
Billion US$
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Volume Value
International Coffee Organization
5

6. Total exports by type of coffee
50
40
Million bags
30
20
10
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas
International Coffee Organization
Stocks in exporting and importing countries
1990 to 2012
60
50
40
Million bags
30
20
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Exporting countries Importing countries
International Coffee Organization
6

7. Certified stocks on the New York and London exchanges
March 2011 – February 2013
8
7
6
5
Million bags
4
3
2
1
March May Jul Sep Nov Jan March May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2011 2012
London New York
International Coffee Organization
World coffee consumption
2002 – 2012*
(In million bags)
Absolute Average annual
2002 2012* % change
change growth rate
growth rate
WORLD TOTAL 111.2 142.2 27.9% 31.0 2.5%
Exporting countries 28.4 43.4 52.7% 15.0 4.3%
Traditional markets 65.1 72.9 12.1% 7.9 1.1%
Emerging markets 17.7 25.8 46.0% 8.1 3.9%
* Provisional
International Coffee Organization
7

8. Retail prices: % change in Roast & Ground coffee
(In national currencies)
2010 2011 2012
Austria 0.9% 18.7% 9.3%
Belgium
B l i 3.3%
3 3% 19.3%
19 3% 3.9%
3 9%
Denmark 8.0% 21.6% 4.9%
Finland 10.1% 38.6% ‐3.1%
France 0.4% 8.9% 2.7%
Germany 5.2% 2.3% 0.6%
Italy 0.4% 10.7% 7.4%
Japan ‐1.3% 4.5% 3.2%
Norway 7.7% 19.7% ‐1.5%
Poland
P l d 1.3%
1 3% 12.1%
12 1% 10.5%
10 5%
Portugal ‐1.7% 3.5% 13.4%
Spain ‐1.2% 7.6% 9.5%
Sweden 6.1% 26.4% ‐2.3%
United Kingdom 2.3% 16.6% 4.6%
USA 6.5% 32.9% 9.3%
International Coffee Organization
World consumption outlook
(1970 to 2020)
180 173.6
166.1
160 158.9
140
2000‐2011
120 2.5%
1990‐1999
Million bags
100 1980‐1989 1.8%
1970‐1979 1.7%
1.3%
80
60
40
20
0
Actual Low ‐ 1.5% Medium ‐ 2.0% High ‐ 2.5%
International Coffee Organization
8