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Multiple ETF Dynamic
Rebalanced Strategy




  Full Year Results [2006- 2012] presented    by
             Brian J Crone Ph.D




                                             ARBSGroup LLC
Introduction


 The ETF market is now worth over 1.2 trillion dollars and growing.

 The largest ETF’s alone consist of assets in the hundreds of billions
  and are among the most liquid assets in the world.

 The ETF market provides a fertile ground for finding highly liquid,
  scalable investment strategies.

 Allows the end user to diversify risk across developed and nascent
  markets and asset classes at low cost.



                                                        ARBSGroup LLC
Investment Objective


   The Investment Objective is to find opportunities delivering high
    returns on capital outperforming major market indices.

   Control level of risk and keep level of volatility in check.

   Monitor Sharpe Ratio’s and other performance metrics dynamically.

   Monitor Drawdowns.

   Dynamic re-balancing to maximize risk reward over time.


                                                            ARBSGroup LLC
Investment Strategy



 Combine technical analysis with statistical distribution theory in order to
   identify Intermediate term trends and reversals in each market considered.


 Create a strategy that both outperforms the underlying market with
   substantially less volatility than the underlier. Strategy exploits weak form
   of market efficiency.

 Numerous technical indicators are considered and there statistical
   distributions analyzed to determine buy and sell levels which are
   incorporated into a signal generator.

 Each individual market is weighted and re-balanced monthly
   according to a scoring mechanism.
                                                              ARBSGroup LLC
Risk Management

 Main focus is to generate portfolio alpha while controlling
  volatility and downside risk.

 Only the most liquid ETFs are considered for inclusion.

 Portfolios are actively managed and are rebalanced on a
  monthly, quarterly or every six months depending on the horizon
  of the underlying strategy.

 The objective is to diversify across industry groups to achieve
  low beta stable returns, while maximizing portfolio alpha.

   .                                                 ARBSGroup LLC
Models Summary Returns

                                              Annual Sharpe
                                              Ratio--(last 12 mo's)


2012   $     4,062,846.98             -0.2%                              1.52
2011   $     4,069,508.20             7.3%                               1.49
2010   $     3,794,045.07            24.7%                        3.998755811
2009   $     3,042,043.44            47.5%                        2.502509957
2008   $     2,062,037.16            27.3%                        2.939623686
2007   $     1,620,265.22            30.4%                        3.800245822
2006   $     1,242,076.64            18.1%                        1.500055765
2005   $     1,051,809.27               5%                                 0


       Avg Sharpe[2006-2011]                                             2.54




           Up Mths                                                        63
           Dn Mths                                                        14
           Avg Up Return                                                2.5%
           Avg Dn Return                                                -1.3%
           WinLossRatio
           Worst Monthly Drawdown
                                                      ARBSGroup LLC
                                                               4.5
                                                           -4.65%
Key Differentiators

 Strategy exploits weak form of market efficiency

 Is easily scalable ($500MM+ capacity).

 Uses No Leverage.

 Does not invest in levered or synthetic ETFs.

 Is not a HFT strategy.


                                                     ARBSGroup LLC
Models Returns vs SP500


                       MODEL                              SPY

           2012   $   4,062,846.98                -0.2%            141.16   12.5%

           2011   $   4,069,508.20                7.3%              125.5    1.3%

           2010   $   3,794,045.07                24.7%            123.95   14.6%

           2009   $   3,042,043.44                47.5%            108.17   26.4%

           2008   $   2,062,037.16                27.3%             85.61   -36.8%

           2007   $   1,620,265.22                30.4%            135.45    5.1%

           2006   $   1,242,076.64                18.1%            128.82   15.8%

           2005   $   1,051,809.27                5.2%              111.2    1.7%

Begin 8/30/2005                      $1,000,000                    109.31




                                                                ARBSGroup LLC
Stress Test of Strategy During Q4 2008 vs SP500
`
                                            ETF Strategy Daily vs Spy for Sep, Oct & Nov 2008


    20.00%




    15.00%




    10.00%




     5.00%
                                                                                                  `                                                               ETF Strategy
                                                                                                                                                                  SPY
     0.00%
          8



                      8



                               08



                                             08



                                                       08



                                                                    8




                                                                                                                          08
                                                                                  08



                                                                                             08



                                                                                                                 08




                                                                                                                                      08



                                                                                                                                                  08



                                                                                                                                                             08
        00



                    00




                                                                 00
                            20



                                           20



                                                    20




                                                                                                                        20
                                                                              /20



                                                                                          /20



                                                                                                             /20




                                                                                                                                    20



                                                                                                                                              /20



                                                                                                                                                          /20
         /2



                 /2




                                                                   2
                             6/




                                                     0/




                                                                                                                                      /
                                        3/




                                                               /7/




                                                                                                                        /4/
              9/9
     9/2




                                                                                                                                             /18
                                                                          /14



                                                                                         /21



                                                                                                         /28




                                                                                                                                  /11




                                                                                                                                                         /25
                          9/1




                                                  9/3
                                    9/2




                                                            10




                                                                                                                      11
                                                                        10




                                                                                                                                           11
                                                                                       10



                                                                                                      10




                                                                                                                               11




                                                                                                                                                       11
     -5.00%




    -10.00%




    -15.00%


                                                                                                                                                           ARBSGroup LLC
Stress Test of Strategy During Q4 2008 vs SP500


                                                                 ETF Strategy vs Spy for Jan, Feb, Mar 2009


8.00%




6.00%




4.00%




2.00%
                                                                                                                                                           ETF Strategy Daily %
                                                                                                                                                           SPY Daily %
0.00%
                  09




                                                                  09
       09




                                                                                                                  09
                               9




                                                                               9




                                                                                                       9




                                                                                                                                           9
                                            9



                                                        9




                                                                                           9




                                                                                                                               9




                                                                                                                                                       9
                             00



                                          00



                                                      00




                                                                             00




                                                                                                     00




                                                                                                                             00



                                                                                                                                         00



                                                                                                                                                     00
                                                                                         00
                                                                20
     20



                20




                                                                                                                20
                           /2



                                        /2



                                                    /2




                                                                           /2




                                                                                                   /2




                                                                                                                           /2



                                                                                                                                       /2
                                                                                       /2




                                                                                                                                                   /2
                                                              6/
   2/



              9/




                                                                                                              6/
                                                                         13




                                                                                                 27




                                                                                                                                     20
                         16



                                      23



                                                  30




                                                                                     20




                                                                                                                         13




                                                                                                                                                 27
            1/




                                                            2/
1/




                                                                                                           3/
                       1/




                                                1/




                                                                       2/




                                                                                               2/




                                                                                                                       3/



                                                                                                                                   3/
                                   1/




                                                                                   2/




                                                                                                                                               3/
-2.00%




-4.00%




-6.00%



                                                                                                                                               ARBSGroup LLC
Accumulated Capital vs Monthly Returns




                                                                                               Accumulated Capital                                                               Monthly Return

                      4500000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              14.000%

                      4000000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12.000%

                      3500000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10.000%
Accumulated Capital




                      3000000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              8.000%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Monthly % Return
                      2500000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6.000%

                      2000000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4.000%

                      1500000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.000%

                      1000000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.000%

                       500000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -2.000%

                            0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -4.000%
                                Oct-05
                                         Jan-06
                                                  Apr-06
                                                           Jul-06
                                                                    Oct-06
                                                                             Jan-07
                                                                                      Apr-07
                                                                                                Jul-07
                                                                                                         Oct-07
                                                                                                                  Jan-08
                                                                                                                           Apr-08
                                                                                                                                    Jul-08
                                                                                                                                             Oct-08
                                                                                                                                                      Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                               Apr-09
                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-09
                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-09
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ARBSGroup LLC
Monthly Returns of Strategy vs SP500
           ETFStrategy Monthly % Return vs SPY Monthly % Return

15.000%                                                             15.00%




10.000%                                                             10.00%




 5.000%                                                             5.00%




 0.000%                                                             0.00%
                                                                              Strategy Monthly
    O 6




    O 7




    O 8




    O 9




    O 0




    O 1
    Ap 8




    Ap 1




           12
    Ap 6




    Ap 7




    Ap 9




    Ap 0
    Ja 5




    Ja 6




    Ja 7




    Ja 8




    Ja 9




    Ja 0




    Ja 1
            6




            7




            8




            9




            0




            1
        l- 0




        l- 0




        l-0




        l-0




        l- 1




        l-1
           0




           1
          0




          0




          0




          1
         -0




         -0




         -0




         -0




         -0




         -1




         -1
       r-0




       r-0




       r-0




       r-0




       r-1




       r-1
       n-




       n-




       n-
       n-




       n-




       n-




       n-
      ct




      ct




      ct




      ct
      ct




      ct




      ct
     Ju




     Ju




     Ju




     Ju




     Ju




     Ju
                                                                              SPY Monthly
  O




 -5.000%                                                            -5.00%




-10.000%                                                            -10.00%




-15.000%                                                            -15.00%




-20.000%                                                            -20.00%
                                                                  ARBSGroup LLC
Biography
   Brian Crone is a co-founding principal of Arbitrage Strategies Group and is responsible for co-
    developing trading systems and quantitative trading strategies of the group as well as engaging in
    capital raising activities. Brian is chief strategist for the group and is co-responsible for risk
    management of the groups activities.

   Prior to Arbitrage Strategies Group, Brian held various positions at Nomura including Director of
    Derivative Trading where he worked on market neutral quantitative strategies in equity derivatives as
    well as emerging markets. These strategies included convertible arbitrage, fixed income relative, index
    arbitrage of baskets of stocks vs. the Bovespa Index. Brian also worked on the development of
    structured products and exotic options to accommodate client transactions. Before joining Nomura
    Brian worked in fixed income trading and research at Deutsche bank where he was responsible for
    developing fixed income trading systems and quantitative strategies for the government bond dealing
    operation. Additionally Brian was Senior Vice President of Business Development at Outercurve
    Technologies where he managed key client projects with top-tier financial institutions.

   Dr. Crone holds a PhD and M.S. in Applied Mathematical Finance from Cornell University where he
    worked with Professor Robert Jarrow. Brian also passed an intensive certificate program in Financial
    Statement Analysis at NYU (Stern). Brian earned a B.Sc (Hons) in Mathematics and Natural
    Philosophy from the University of Glasgow.



                                                                                  ARBSGroup LLC
Contact Information

    Brian Crone, Principal
         646-509-8877
      bcrone2@yahoo.com
                




                             ARBSGroup LLC

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Strategy presentationmar2012

  • 1. Multiple ETF Dynamic Rebalanced Strategy Full Year Results [2006- 2012] presented by Brian J Crone Ph.D ARBSGroup LLC
  • 2. Introduction  The ETF market is now worth over 1.2 trillion dollars and growing.  The largest ETF’s alone consist of assets in the hundreds of billions and are among the most liquid assets in the world.  The ETF market provides a fertile ground for finding highly liquid, scalable investment strategies.  Allows the end user to diversify risk across developed and nascent markets and asset classes at low cost. ARBSGroup LLC
  • 3. Investment Objective  The Investment Objective is to find opportunities delivering high returns on capital outperforming major market indices.  Control level of risk and keep level of volatility in check.  Monitor Sharpe Ratio’s and other performance metrics dynamically.  Monitor Drawdowns.  Dynamic re-balancing to maximize risk reward over time. ARBSGroup LLC
  • 4. Investment Strategy  Combine technical analysis with statistical distribution theory in order to identify Intermediate term trends and reversals in each market considered.  Create a strategy that both outperforms the underlying market with substantially less volatility than the underlier. Strategy exploits weak form of market efficiency.  Numerous technical indicators are considered and there statistical distributions analyzed to determine buy and sell levels which are incorporated into a signal generator.  Each individual market is weighted and re-balanced monthly according to a scoring mechanism. ARBSGroup LLC
  • 5. Risk Management  Main focus is to generate portfolio alpha while controlling volatility and downside risk.  Only the most liquid ETFs are considered for inclusion.  Portfolios are actively managed and are rebalanced on a monthly, quarterly or every six months depending on the horizon of the underlying strategy.  The objective is to diversify across industry groups to achieve low beta stable returns, while maximizing portfolio alpha. . ARBSGroup LLC
  • 6. Models Summary Returns Annual Sharpe Ratio--(last 12 mo's) 2012 $ 4,062,846.98 -0.2% 1.52 2011 $ 4,069,508.20 7.3% 1.49 2010 $ 3,794,045.07 24.7% 3.998755811 2009 $ 3,042,043.44 47.5% 2.502509957 2008 $ 2,062,037.16 27.3% 2.939623686 2007 $ 1,620,265.22 30.4% 3.800245822 2006 $ 1,242,076.64 18.1% 1.500055765 2005 $ 1,051,809.27 5% 0 Avg Sharpe[2006-2011] 2.54 Up Mths 63 Dn Mths 14 Avg Up Return 2.5% Avg Dn Return -1.3% WinLossRatio Worst Monthly Drawdown ARBSGroup LLC 4.5 -4.65%
  • 7. Key Differentiators  Strategy exploits weak form of market efficiency  Is easily scalable ($500MM+ capacity).  Uses No Leverage.  Does not invest in levered or synthetic ETFs.  Is not a HFT strategy. ARBSGroup LLC
  • 8. Models Returns vs SP500 MODEL SPY 2012 $ 4,062,846.98 -0.2% 141.16 12.5% 2011 $ 4,069,508.20 7.3% 125.5 1.3% 2010 $ 3,794,045.07 24.7% 123.95 14.6% 2009 $ 3,042,043.44 47.5% 108.17 26.4% 2008 $ 2,062,037.16 27.3% 85.61 -36.8% 2007 $ 1,620,265.22 30.4% 135.45 5.1% 2006 $ 1,242,076.64 18.1% 128.82 15.8% 2005 $ 1,051,809.27 5.2% 111.2 1.7% Begin 8/30/2005 $1,000,000 109.31 ARBSGroup LLC
  • 9. Stress Test of Strategy During Q4 2008 vs SP500 ` ETF Strategy Daily vs Spy for Sep, Oct & Nov 2008 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% ` ETF Strategy SPY 0.00% 8 8 08 08 08 8 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 00 00 00 20 20 20 20 /20 /20 /20 20 /20 /20 /2 /2 2 6/ 0/ / 3/ /7/ /4/ 9/9 9/2 /18 /14 /21 /28 /11 /25 9/1 9/3 9/2 10 11 10 11 10 10 11 11 -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% ARBSGroup LLC
  • 10. Stress Test of Strategy During Q4 2008 vs SP500 ETF Strategy vs Spy for Jan, Feb, Mar 2009 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% ETF Strategy Daily % SPY Daily % 0.00% 09 09 09 09 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 20 20 20 20 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 6/ 2/ 9/ 6/ 13 27 20 16 23 30 20 13 27 1/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 2/ 3/ 3/ 1/ 2/ 3/ -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% ARBSGroup LLC
  • 11. Accumulated Capital vs Monthly Returns Accumulated Capital Monthly Return 4500000 14.000% 4000000 12.000% 3500000 10.000% Accumulated Capital 3000000 8.000% Monthly % Return 2500000 6.000% 2000000 4.000% 1500000 2.000% 1000000 0.000% 500000 -2.000% 0 -4.000% Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 ARBSGroup LLC
  • 12. Monthly Returns of Strategy vs SP500 ETFStrategy Monthly % Return vs SPY Monthly % Return 15.000% 15.00% 10.000% 10.00% 5.000% 5.00% 0.000% 0.00% Strategy Monthly O 6 O 7 O 8 O 9 O 0 O 1 Ap 8 Ap 1 12 Ap 6 Ap 7 Ap 9 Ap 0 Ja 5 Ja 6 Ja 7 Ja 8 Ja 9 Ja 0 Ja 1 6 7 8 9 0 1 l- 0 l- 0 l-0 l-0 l- 1 l-1 0 1 0 0 0 1 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 -1 r-0 r-0 r-0 r-0 r-1 r-1 n- n- n- n- n- n- n- ct ct ct ct ct ct ct Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju SPY Monthly O -5.000% -5.00% -10.000% -10.00% -15.000% -15.00% -20.000% -20.00% ARBSGroup LLC
  • 13. Biography  Brian Crone is a co-founding principal of Arbitrage Strategies Group and is responsible for co- developing trading systems and quantitative trading strategies of the group as well as engaging in capital raising activities. Brian is chief strategist for the group and is co-responsible for risk management of the groups activities.  Prior to Arbitrage Strategies Group, Brian held various positions at Nomura including Director of Derivative Trading where he worked on market neutral quantitative strategies in equity derivatives as well as emerging markets. These strategies included convertible arbitrage, fixed income relative, index arbitrage of baskets of stocks vs. the Bovespa Index. Brian also worked on the development of structured products and exotic options to accommodate client transactions. Before joining Nomura Brian worked in fixed income trading and research at Deutsche bank where he was responsible for developing fixed income trading systems and quantitative strategies for the government bond dealing operation. Additionally Brian was Senior Vice President of Business Development at Outercurve Technologies where he managed key client projects with top-tier financial institutions.  Dr. Crone holds a PhD and M.S. in Applied Mathematical Finance from Cornell University where he worked with Professor Robert Jarrow. Brian also passed an intensive certificate program in Financial Statement Analysis at NYU (Stern). Brian earned a B.Sc (Hons) in Mathematics and Natural Philosophy from the University of Glasgow. ARBSGroup LLC
  • 14. Contact Information Brian Crone, Principal 646-509-8877 bcrone2@yahoo.com   ARBSGroup LLC