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Wealth Re lative   (1 ( Rt / 100))




rt   ln(1 Rt / 100)




                                     rManager       rBenchmark




              Sumofall Re turns            r( t )
              Numberof Re turns            N

                          (r( t )   r )2
                             N 1
PercentileDistributionofTer min alWealthN   e(Z   Score* * N )




                               2
                        0.10       0.0225         0.15




                *N
                * N
Z Score * * N
              Percentilefor r(t )
6   e5                                 e 0.68242                   e1.00              e1.31758




                              Ter min alWealthofManagerN
RatioofCumulativeWealthN
                             Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N


                                       r( t )
Ter min alWealthofManagerN      X *e                     X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )
                                                r( t )
Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N       X *e                   X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )
rt




                       rt
                                 rt




     Rt
rt                          Rt

rt    ln(1 Rt )

     1 Rt   exp(rt )
     1 Rt   e ( rt )
Rt       rt


                                                           1 Rt (k )


1 Rt (k ) (1 Rt ) * (1 Rt 1 ) * (1 Rt 2 )....(1 Rt             k 1   )
  e rt ( k ) e ( rt ) * e ( rt 1 ) * ... * e ( tt k 1 )
                  r
  e rt ( k ) e ( t )


                                                 rt (k )                 k


rt (k )   ln[1 Rt (k )]

    rt (k )   ln[(1 Rt ) * (1 Rt 1 )....(1 Rt   k 1   )]
    rt (k )   rt rt 1 ... rt k 1




UnitValue N        (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )



                       r( t )
UnitValue N        e
r( t )
Ter min alWealthN                          X *e                          X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )



                                                                                                                 r(t )

                                                               rt
                                        r(t )
                                                                                                                                  ~N( ,
                    ~N( ,                                                                              ~N( + ,           +

                                                                                                                             e(   )

                            e(   *t )




                                                                        e(   )
                                                                                   e(        )


    (           )
e




                                                2*                               * 2

                            * t

                                                           r(t )
E N ( r(t ) )               *N

                                r(t )
        2                   2
            N   ( rt )          *N

                                                                r(t )
        N ( rt )            * N

                                                     r(t )




PercentileDistributionofTer min alWealthN                                              e(Z       Score* * N )
Sumofall Re turns      r( t )
    Numberof Re turns      N

       (r( t )   r )2
          N 1




                                           r( t )
Ter min alWealthofManagerN          X *e                     X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )
      RN




                                                    r( t )
Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N         X *e                     X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )
      RN




                                Ter min alWealthofManagerN
RatioofCumulativeWealthN
                               Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N

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Confidence intervalanalysis methodology_eka

  • 1.
  • 2. Wealth Re lative (1 ( Rt / 100)) rt ln(1 Rt / 100) rManager rBenchmark Sumofall Re turns r( t ) Numberof Re turns N (r( t ) r )2 N 1
  • 3. PercentileDistributionofTer min alWealthN e(Z Score* * N ) 2 0.10 0.0225 0.15 *N * N
  • 4. Z Score * * N Percentilefor r(t ) 6 e5 e 0.68242 e1.00 e1.31758 Ter min alWealthofManagerN RatioofCumulativeWealthN Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N r( t ) Ter min alWealthofManagerN X *e X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N ) r( t ) Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N X *e X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N )
  • 5. rt rt rt Rt rt Rt rt ln(1 Rt ) 1 Rt exp(rt ) 1 Rt e ( rt )
  • 6. Rt rt 1 Rt (k ) 1 Rt (k ) (1 Rt ) * (1 Rt 1 ) * (1 Rt 2 )....(1 Rt k 1 ) e rt ( k ) e ( rt ) * e ( rt 1 ) * ... * e ( tt k 1 ) r e rt ( k ) e ( t ) rt (k ) k rt (k ) ln[1 Rt (k )] rt (k ) ln[(1 Rt ) * (1 Rt 1 )....(1 Rt k 1 )] rt (k ) rt rt 1 ... rt k 1 UnitValue N (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N ) r( t ) UnitValue N e
  • 7. r( t ) Ter min alWealthN X *e X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N ) r(t ) rt r(t ) ~N( , ~N( , ~N( + , + e( ) e( *t ) e( ) e( ) ( ) e 2* * 2 * t r(t ) E N ( r(t ) ) *N r(t ) 2 2 N ( rt ) *N r(t ) N ( rt ) * N r(t ) PercentileDistributionofTer min alWealthN e(Z Score* * N )
  • 8. Sumofall Re turns r( t ) Numberof Re turns N (r( t ) r )2 N 1 r( t ) Ter min alWealthofManagerN X *e X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N ) RN r( t ) Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N X *e X * (1 R1 ) * (1 R2 ) * ... * (1 R N ) RN Ter min alWealthofManagerN RatioofCumulativeWealthN Ter min alWealthofBenchmark N