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TRADOC OE Operational Environment 2010-2025


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TRADOC OE Operational Environment 2010-2025

  1. 1. The Operational Environment<br />2010-2025<br />
  2. 2. Agenda<br />Overview of the Operational Environment<br />Global/Regional Trends<br />Key Characteristics<br />An Era of Persistent Conflict<br />Hybrid Threat<br />Emerging Nature of Threat Operations<br />Threat Overview<br />Final Thoughts<br />
  3. 3. What is the Operational Environment?<br />Impacts on TRADOC:<br /><ul><li>Roles, missions and doctrine . . . Concept Development
  4. 4. Requirements for personnel, materiel, training and education, organizations, etc . . . Requirements Determination
  5. 5. Perspective on potential catalysts and drivers for operations . . . Capability Development
  6. 6. Thinking, planning, decisions, selection of actions, feedback . . . Analysis of Alternative Futures
  7. 7. Intellectual and philosophical tone for how the Army views conflict . . . Leader Development</li></ul>What it is:<br /><ul><li>JP 1-02: An Operational Environment is the “composite of the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the employment of military forces and bear on the decisions of commanders”</li></ul>The Operational Environment<br />What it does:<br /><ul><li>Describes present and future characteristics and variables that will affect how leaders will organize, train and employ forces </li></ul>The OE underpins the Army’s efforts in leader, concept and capabilities development and support to training to prepare the right people, with the right skills and capabilities, at the right time and place for today and tomorrow<br />2<br />9<br />
  8. 8. …Information<br />…Globalization<br />…Ideology<br />…Shifting Demographics<br />…Environmental Fragility<br />…Weapons of Mass Destruction<br />The Operational Environment<br />Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth… 2.8 billion below poverty by 2025<br />Media microscope, billions of connected people … Social Media phenomenon …<br />60% in urban areas by 2030 … 90% of pop growth in 2030 in developing countries … Youth Bulge in Africa, Middle East<br />Competing cultures challenge state authority…Hezbollah’s perceived legitimacy<br />…Technology<br />~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … dual use chemical/bio weapons<br />World food cost up 45%... Energy demand increasing 1.6%/yr … 450M severe water shortage<br />70% of S&T research conducted outside of U.S. … DIY UAVs for &lt; $1,000<br />
  9. 9. The Information Revolution … Beyond 2028<br />Transparent Battlefields and Governments<br />It’s A Small World After All<br /><ul><li> State activities receive intense scrutiny
  10. 10. Bad governance has consequences . . .</li></ul>revolutionaries and insurgents capitalize<br /><ul><li> Billions of connected people
  11. 11. 80-90% carrying mobile media centers
  12. 12. How to manuals online…DIY dirty bombs and UAVs</li></ul>Omnipresent Media<br />Cyber Sanctuary<br /><ul><li> Augmented Reality
  13. 13. Anonymity and zero-footprint forums for hacktivists and hobbyists alike
  14. 14. Super-empowered individuals
  15. 15. Truth becomes more elusive…anyone can create and manipulate information
  16. 16. Information advantage determines the victor</li></li></ul><li>Key Characteristics<br /><ul><li>Among local populations with unfamiliar cultures, often in the midst humanitarian crisis …
  17. 17. In urbansettings or harsh, inaccessible lawless areas …
  18. 18. With an absence of local security or aneffectivelocal government … containing competing factionslocked in internal conflict …
  19. 19. Against hybrid, full spectrum andnetworked enemies embedded in the local population and possessing a wide range of advanced technologies and military capabilities, including possible WMD …
  20. 20. Employing adaptive and asymmetric combinations of traditional, irregular and criminal tactics …
  21. 21. Direct and indirect challenges to access …
  22. 22. Tied to a sophisticated information campaign …
  23. 23. Creating situations demanding long duration operations at extended distances and requiring inter-agency and non-military tools to resolve…
  24. 24. And conducted under the unblinking eye of an omnipresent media, potentially giving local events global significance …</li></li></ul><li>An Era of Persistent Conflict<br />Present<br />Past<br />…Beyond 2028<br />365 conflicts in 2009… 31 conflicts fought involving massive violence… seven wars and 24 severe crises<br />In 5,560 years of recorded human history there have been 14,531 wars…95% of man’s recorded history has been spent in conflict…2.6135 wars a year<br /><ul><li> Fought in the Global Commons
  25. 25. Terrain holds broader significance than military advantage alone
  26. 26. Violenceis calculated on how it affects control of the population
  27. 27. The enemy cannot be destroyedin a conventional sense
  28. 28. Characterized by a continually changing mix of armed forces and entities
  29. 29. Local problems are global problems</li></ul>Confrontation is the NORM…there is less of a distinction between war and peace … different levels of conflict<br />
  30. 30. The Nature of Hybrid Threats<br />Armed Forces are created to meet national/organizational needs in local/regional settings against neighboring states or internal threats<br />U.S. forces dominate conventional, local or regionally focused armed forces<br />The force the adversary needs to meet local requirements – is not the force it needs to challenge the U.S.<br />Crime<br />Irregular<br />Extremist<br />Opportunity<br />Tailorable<br />Strategy<br />Organization<br />ADAPTIVE APPLICATIONS<br />TRADITIONAL<br />Doctrine<br />Capabilities<br />Creative<br />Defensive<br />Seek advantage through regular + irregular forces, conventional + unconventional, all unified in purpose<br />“Hybrid”<br />New Technology/Rapid Adaptation<br />Combat Developments <br />US Dominance<br />Uncertainty<br />
  31. 31. United States<br />STRATEGIC PRECLUSION<br />OPERATIONAL EXCLUSION<br />Reduced <br />Dominance<br />ACCESS LIMITATION<br />OPERATIONAL SHIELDING<br />I<br />I<br />Mov<br />/<br />Mov<br />/<br />Mov<br />/<br />Mov<br />/<br />Intel<br />Intel<br />Intel<br />Intel<br />n<br />n<br />Man<br />Man<br />Man<br />Man<br />f<br />f<br />o<br />o<br />r<br />r<br />m<br />m<br />Gaining<br />Dominance<br />C2<br />C2<br />C2<br />C2<br />a<br />a<br />Ldr<br />Ldr<br />Ldr<br />Ldr<br />SYSTEMS WARFARE<br />Fires<br />Fires<br />Fires<br />Fires<br />t<br />t<br />i<br />i<br />Protect<br />Protect<br />Protect<br />Protect<br />Sustain<br />Sustain<br />Sustain<br />Sustain<br />o<br />o<br />n<br />n<br />STRIKE<br />RAPID TACTICAL TRANSITIONS<br />Adversaries in <br />2020 & beyond<br />STRATEGIC ATTACK<br />Emerging Nature of Threat Operations<br />Dominance<br />Time<br />
  32. 32. Threat Overview<br />IEDs/Mines<br />ADA<br />Artillery<br />Direct Fire<br />Continue to evolve, <br />missions will overlap. <br />Iconic system<br />attacks.<br />Active engagement <br />of UAVs and PGMs.<br />Accuracy, range and <br />lethality Increase, <br />Dwell time decreases.<br />Countermeasures<br />Armor<br />Cheap, plentiful, <br />attacks soft targets <br />using masking and <br />surprise.<br />CBRNE<br />ATGM<br />Frontal overmatch, <br />Add-ons prolific, <br />Low-observable technology<br />Obscurants cheap/available,<br />APS cost decreasing, integration <br />difficult, field expedient<br />D&D widespread.<br />Information Operations<br />Difficult to detect<br />or defeat.<br />Lethal, Available, <br />Day/Night, Engage<br />out to 7km.<br />Insider the key CNO threat, multipurpose<br /> and GPS deception jammers, RF weapons<br /> available for close-in (unpredictable effects).<br />
  33. 33. Final Thoughts<br />Beyond 2028<br />Past<br />Present<br />Power Dynamic<br />Nation States<br />Shadow Organizations<br />Emerging non-State<br />World Order<br />Multi-polar<br />Uni-polar<br />Bipolar<br />Military Engagements<br />Traditional<br />Adaptations<br />Power Projection Deterrence<br />Nature of Warfare<br />“Conventional”<br />Counterinsurgency<br />Combinations<br />Adversaries<br />Cellular<br />Hybrid<br />Hierarchical<br />Big Threat<br />Integrated Attack<br />Terrorism<br />M.A.D.<br />