Changing demographics of India

1. “The Demography Vortex” - Is India equipped?
Whether population growth restricts or fuels economic growth is still argued at
length by economic scientists. The neutral viewpoint that population does not
matter for growth prospects seems to be untrue in the real sense.
When the growth in working age population is substantially greater than the growth
in total population it is referred to as “demographic dividend”. It is at this
demographic transition that India is positioned as of today. Most countries are likely
to pass through this stage at some point or the other. India is expected to be seeing
an increase in the working age population up till 2040. I am not sure if this
demographic transition is uniform among all states in the country.
There is an exaggerated optimism about the supply of labor, which is not matched to
low demands, and hence the term oversupply is more practical to analyze the
growth prospects. It must be understood that a demographic window alone is not an
assurance that the opportunity will be fully utilized.
The policies and plans undertaken by the country will finally determine how well
the demographic dividend is realized and exploited for positive growth patterns.
During the demographic transition improvements in public health, medicine,
education and human capital development are critical and mandatory. If the right
set of policies are not implemented as early as possible in a demographic transition
then evils such as high unemployment and social unrest will be the fallouts.
In India, just having a work force will not contribute to economy unless the jobs are
high paid and far beyond wherewithal. Job creation and human capital training and
development must be delivered to justly use the demographic dividend. If not there
will be increase in crime and violence that will be uncontainable. Reducing fertility
is the key during this transition period. Family planning must be encouraged like
never before.
The transparent fact is that more and more people are moving to cities and cities are
also expanding at a very fast rate in few select regions in India. There is also a huge
discrimination in urban and rural earnings. There is a certain group of people who
are going to be better off with more money in hand so that they can spend more too.
This is particularly good for businesses in India and for the international business
players because they are going to have consumers who will spend on retail,
recreation, entertainment, health, and services.
It is about time that India must seriously look in to sustainability rather than just
comfortably snuggling to the demographic transition phase. A healthy work force
with the right skills, knowledge, values and attitudes, good working environment,
job opportunities and optimal production are yet to come.

2. The Indian government must think of sustainability right away. It must be
understood that as the demand for goods increases so will the demand for raw
materials, energy, water, food, infrastructure development, housing and clean
unpolluted atmosphere and environment. The benefits would be enormous if the
government develops efficiencies and innovates to reduce reliance on scarce
materials and reduce costs. The benefits could be reduced energy consumption,
pollution, water consumption, and waste and carbon emissions.