Presentation done by Richard Damania, Chief Economist, Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank on "Managing India's Waters" at #TheIndiaDialog on February 23 at Stanford University. The #TheIndiaDialog was organised by Institute for Competitiveness and US Asia Technology Management Center at Stanford University.

1. Managing
India’s Waters
Richard Damania
Chief Economist
Sustainable Development Practice

2. A Thirsty Planet
Rising populations and water stress
Per capita Water Availability and Future Population Growth, 2050
Low- No Risk
Medium-Low Risk
High Risk
Very High Risk
Compounded Fertility &
Water Stress

3. 3
Declining per capita water availability

4. Always have some districts experiencing a dry shock
Number of Dry Shocks 1970-2012
Rainfall variability

5. Largest irrigator and user of GW in the world
Number of Dry Shocks 1970-2012
Irrigation expansion to buffer rainfall variability and provide additional cropping

6. Transformed agriculture in 30 years
6 INDIA SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC: A PREVIEW
From food deficit – to - food
surplus
Net food exporter
(≈ 9th largest globally)
Rural growth is key
to poverty reduction
1 2 3

7. 7 INDIA SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC: A PREVIEW
Agriculture
Steady growth rate
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Annual Growth Rate

8. Source: Aeschbach-Hertig and Gleeson, 2012
Groundwater depletion is a global problem
But India more vulnerable
1.7 billion people live above aquifers that are stressed by
overuse

9. Depleting groundwater levels
Source: Central
Groundwater
Board of India

10. Data Source: Central Groundwater Board
Source: Fishman, 2018
Note: The stage of Groundwater development (the ratio between
extraction and renewable recharge of groundwater). A stage of
development exceeding 1 results in un-sustainable mining and falling
water tables.
The stage of Groundwater development
Source: Chatterjee, Lamba, Zaveri, 2017

11. 11 INDIA SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC: A PREVIEW
Agriculture
Uses too much water and too much land, for too little output
Water productivity
China x4 India

12. Impacts of Rainfall Variation on Food Production
World Bank Group | Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity

13. Rainfall shocks impacts farm productivity
World Bank Group | Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity
Dry shocks reduce
agricultural productivity
7-11%
Wet shocks, small increase
agricultural productivity
Results hold across three different weather datasets and multiple regression models

14. In regions where water-intensive crops grown
dry shocks have larger impact
> 11%
Twice the impact as non-water intensive regions

15. How well does surface irrigation buffer against dry shocks?

16. The Paradox of Supply
Water-intensive crops exacerbate scarcity
Rice Sugarcane Cotton

17. Surface water less effective at buffering rainfall shocks than
ground water.
May be exacerbating when it leads to water intensive crops in dry places
(See Uncharted Waters, Sinha et al. 2018 for an explanation why)

18. Groundwater better at buffering against dry shocks
But declining effectiveness
A revenue advantage of
10-20%
But declining, possibly due to fall in groundwater levels

19. Nitrogen
19
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

20. Green Revolution heralded a Nitrogen Revolution
0
50
100
150
200
tons/ha
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Nitrogen Phosphorus
Potassium NPK
Source: WB India and Ag dataset + ICRISAT
Fertilize use in tons is divided by net cropped area in hectares
Start of GR

21. Leached into
water
21
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

22. 22
Volatized into the Air
N2O CO2
Nitrous
Oxide is 300x
more potent at
trapping heat than
CO2
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

23. Nitrogen has Passed Safe Planetary Boundary
23
World’s largest global
externality, rivaling carbon
(Keeler et al. 2016)
Trending upwards nearly
everywhere, including in
developed countries like the
United States
(Keiser and Shapiro 2018)
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

24. Nitrate Levels in Groundwater
Each red dot represents a well where
nitrate exceeds Indian safety levels
prescribed by the Bureau of Indian
Standards (BIS) (> 44 mg/L).
Nitrate levels exceed BIS standard ≈ 50% of
districts.
Source: Zaveri et al. 2020 using data from Central Groundwater Board
of India (CGWB).

25. Nitrates are linked to fatal
Blue Baby Syndrome.
25
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

26. What about
those that
survive?
26
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

27. Cumulative Nitrate
Exposure 0 – 3 years:
27
Vietnam and Africa:
impacts at lower
levels of exposure
Rural India:
girls 2 cm
shorter
World Bank Group | Quality Unknown: The Hidden Water Crisis

28. 28
Protect the source of water supplies
Water Source – PUBLIC GOOD
Water infrastructure for delivery transforms
water from a public to a private good
Farms
Firms
Families
Manage demand to address
deepening water stress
Regulate water utilities for reliable
access to safe water and sanitation
Safety nets to protect the vulnerable
since water is a merit good
Environmental policies to reduce water pollution and degradation
The Economic Water Cycle

29. Thank
You