Knowledge engineering: from people to machines and back
Software is eating ...
1.
2. Notes from Marc Andreessen tweetstorms
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List of Tweetstorms:
Challenge of VCs, 26 Sep 2014
Burn Rates, 25 Sep 2014
Movie Theaters, August 31, 2014
CEOs, August 24, 2014
Timing of Ideas, August 21, 2014
Big Problems, August 19, 2014
Buzzfeed, August 10, 2014
Journalism, August 10, 2014
Joel Mokyr, August 10, 2014
Watergate, August 10, 2014
Financial Regulation, August 7, 2014
Lyft Line, August 7, 2014
Who is Marc Andreessen?
Marc Lowell Andreessen (born July 9, 1971) is an American entrepreneur, investor, and software engineer.
He is best known as coauthor of Mosaic, the first widely used Web browser; as cofounder of Netscape Communications
Corporation; and as cofounder and general partner of Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. He
founded and later sold the software company Opsware to Hewlett-Packard. Andreessen is also a cofounder of Ning, a
company that provides a platform for social networking websites.
An innovator and creator, he is one of the few people who has pioneered a software category (Web browsers) used by
more than a billion people and established several billion-dollar companies. He sits on the board of directors of
Facebook, eBay, and HP, among others.
A frequent keynote speaker and guest at Silicon Valley conferences, Andreessen is one of only six inductees in the World
Wide Web Hall of Fame announced at the first international conference on the World Wide Web in 1994.
Source: Wikipedia
What is a tweetstorm?
A Twitterstorm is a sudden spike in activity surrounding a certain topic on the Twitter social media site.
A Twitterstorm is often started by a single person who sends his or her followers a message often related to breaking
news or a controversial debate. Using a certain and often original hashtag, the tweet quickly spreads as people are
notified of the message and then reuse the hashtag with subsequent retweets and tweets.
Source: Technopedia
3. Challenge of VCs
Published on Twitter, 25 Sep 2014
One response to the tweetstorm about Burn Rates:
"Why isn't this just hypocritical VCs overfunding reckless founders of out-of-control startups?"
In fairness, there is probably some of that, though we & the investors we respect try hard not to indulge recklessness &
irresponsibility.
But while it's irresponsible to vaporize cash & your company, it can also be irresponsible to NOT invest to become #1 in a
big new market. Particularly now, since there are SO many more people on the Internet & SO many more businesses that
can consume cloud/SAAS vs 15 yrs ago.
Tension: Overinvest, escalate burn, risk down round, vaporize when market turns; OR Underinvest, starve growth, don't
win market, implode.
Why is this so important? In tech-driven markets, overwhelming economic returns tend to go to the company with the
highest market share. And, the winning company with the highest market share can invest the most in R&D, build the best
and most advanced products. The prize.
Via Glengarry Glen Ross: Reward for market position #1 is 90% of the economic value. #2, a set of steak knives. #3,
you're fired.
The challenge for CEOs and boards of tech startups is to thread the needle, just enough investment to take the #1
position, but not more.
Meeting this challenge has resulted in thousands of venture-capital-backed companies creating millions of jobs over last
50 years.
This challenge becomes far harder when money is flowing freely, since more competitors get funded. Very tricky.
Requires deep judgment. BUT opting out of the race generally guarantees you won't be #1 or even #2. Not a good idea
either. Just as serious a risk as blowing up. No single answer. Up to VCs, CEOs, boards, and later-round investors to
think very carefully about this for each specific circumstance.
4. Cash burn rates at startups
Published on Twitter, 25 Sep 2014.
Recently Bill Gurley and Fred Wilson have sounded a vivid alarm1.
I said at the time that I agree with much of what Bill says, and I want to expand on the topic further.
New founders in last 10 years have ONLY been in environment where money is always easy to raise at higher
valuations. THAT WILL NOT LAST. When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming
without trunks on: many high burn rate co's will VAPORIZE.
High cash burn rates are dangerous in several ways beyond the obvious increased risk of running out of cash. Important
to understand why:
First: High burn rate kills your ability to adapt as you learn & as market changes. Co becomes unwieldy, too big to
easily change course.
Second: Hiring people is easy; layoffs are devastating. Hiring for startups is effectively one way street. Again, can't
change once stuck.
Third: Your managers get trained and incented ONLY to hire, as answer to every question. Company bloats &
becomes badly run at same time.
Fourth: Lots of people, big shiny office, high expense base = Fake "we've made it!" feeling. Removes pressure to
deliver real results.
Fifth: More people multiplies communication overhead exponentially, slows everything down. Company bogs down,
becomes bad place to work.
Sixth: Raising new money becomes harder & harder. You have bigger bulldog to feed, need more and more $ at
higher and higher valuations. Therefore you take on escalating risk of a catastrophic down round. High-cash-burn
startups almost never survive down rounds. VAPORIZE. Further, to get into this position, you probably had to raise
too much $ at too high valuation before; escalates down round risk further.
Seventh: Even if you CAN raise an up round, you are increasingly likely to incur terrible structural terms like ratchets
to chin the bar. That nice hedge fund investor willing to hit your valuation bar? Imagine him owning 80% of co after
down round. How nice will he be then?
Eighth: When market turns, M&A mostly stops. Nobody will want to buy your cash-incinerating startup. There will be
no Plan B. VAPORIZE.
Finally, there are exceptions to all this. But if you're reading this, you're almost certainly not one. They are few and far
between.
Worry.
1. http://online.wsj.com/articles/venture-capitalist-sounds-alarm-on-silicon-valley-risk-1410740054
http://avc.com/2014/09/burn-baby-burn/ ↩
5. Next generation movie theaters
Published on Twitter, August 31, 2014
Next generation movie theaters could be so much better, charge a premium & dominate financially (like ArcLight
Hollywood)...
Convenience:
Reserved seating
Valet parking
Warm embrace of Lyft & Uber including ride-pooling
On-site daycare.
Experience:
No commercials before movie
Super-comfortable chairs & sofas
Food delivery directly to seats
Sparkling clean bathrooms
Food & drink:
High-quality food with healthy options
Sit-down dining on site
Full bars (Lyft & Uber make more practical & safe now)
Variety of screening experiences:
Silent, or noisy
Use of phones allowed
Families + kids
All kids
Dining + movie together.
Use of crowdsourcing & crowdfunding for special screenings, full embrace of group & corporate events, all-you-can-view
subscriptions...
6. The truly great tech CEOs
Published on Twitter, August 24, 2014
In tech, we talk about difference between technical-founder/CEO (product/eng background) vs professional CEO
(sales/marketing background).
Our general theory is: Easier to teach product innovator how to manage, than it is to teach sales/marketing operator how
to innovate. There are many exceptions in both directions, of course. Mountain is hard to climb either way. Lots of
work/learning/adaptation required. I propose another lens on dynamic: Difference between knowing What & Who, vs
knowing How, Where, & When. Bear with me...
Great tech founder/CEOs tend to focus on What & Who: What product to build, and Who to hire/train/retain/motivate to
build it.
Great pro CEOs tend to focus on How, Where, & When: How = processes; Where = geographic expansion; When =
optimizing business across time.
To succeed at scale, each needs to learn the other skills & hire people who have them:
Founder/CEO -> How/Where/When
Pro CEO -> What/Who
The challenge: Usually easier to hire skilled business professionals who know How/Where/When than What/Who.
Fishing from unbalanced pool.
The trap: Only nailing What/Who can carry startup a long way, but only nailing How/Where/When = slow road to
zombieland and company death.
Ultimately = team-building for both paths. But dynamic different & differently challenging in each direction; requires open
discussion.
Addendum: The Why = the mission. Ideally beyond just "the company's success". Increasingly important for all paths.
Addendum: The truly great tech CEOs have mastered all of these: What, Who, How, Where, & When... and Why.
7. Timing of Ideas
Published on Twitter, August 21, 2014
A thing I believe that few believe: Almost all Silicon Valley startup ideas from qualified founders = great ideas. But some
are too early.
Track startups over multiple decades, what you find is that most ideas do end up working. It's much more a question of
"when" not "if".
This is interesting for several reasons:
First, it means that criticism of the form "that will never happen" is usually misguided & wrong.
Second, it means that a much bigger risk for founders is "too early", vs "wrong" or "too late". Often doesn't match
feedback from others. To quote Peter Thiel:
It is often better to be the last company to market (hit timing right & take down the entire market) vs the first.
Third, when you have the timing right, you almost always feel like you're too late. Terrified you've missed the window
= great sign. When idea X has been in the air, with repeated attempts to build X, yet most customers are not yet
doing/using X, it's never too late.
Fourth, founders by definition live in the future, see a world that doesn't yet exist & try to make it so. Nailing timing =
hardest thing. Which is often why more pragmatic founders end up building the big & important companies -- the
idealists were just too early.
Fifth, therefore, most of the great ideas for the next two decades are already known. In labs, in failed startups, in big
companies prototypes. Those ideas are being dismissed now since the early attempts have't worked. This has the
opposite predictive value vs what people think.
Quoting William Gibson:
The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed
Or it's not yet distributed at all. But it is here.
The key question is: What ideas are widely dismissed today due to having been tried & failed? Answer is the codex to
the next 20 years.
8. "Silicon Valley is not trying to solve big problems"
Published on Twitter, August 19, 2014
I really don't get people who go out of their way to crap on the hard work and efforts of founders and startup teams.
The simple form of such crapping is pure sour grapes. The advanced version is "Silicon Valley is not trying to solve big
problems".
In honor of today's outstanding YC demo day1, I'll reprise some thoughts from my July 7 tweetstorm on this cynical and
pointless canard.
There are six logical problems with the false choice of "make trivial apps for 20-something SF hipsters" vs "do things that
matter":
First, "make trivial apps" vs "do things that matter" are not actually in conflict-there's plenty of room and plenty of
money to do both.
Second, it's often hard to tell which is which up front. Almost all big world-changers were dismissed by critics as trivial
at first.
Third, observer bias: Only read consumer tech blogs, only go to consumer tech conferences, think SV only works on
consumer tech.
Fourth, battling cynical critiques: Founders who articulate the big vision for changing the world get called arrogant
and vainglorious. Both criticisms leveled with no cognitive dissonance: Founders either not pursuing big ideas, or out
of control egomaniacs if they are.
Fifth, subtext often that communication tech/apps in particular somehow aren't important or don't matter, vs energy,
education, etc. Why? Communication is the foundation of collaborative work, which is how all the important problems
gets solved. People working together.
Sixth, Anyone who thinks Silicon Valley can be doing more/better/different, come join us and participate in building
new things, products, companies. The central truth of Silicon Valley is that there's always more to do, and there are
always new opportunities to build & contribute.
I couldn't be more proud of today's YC amazing demo day crop, spanning more problem domains than ever. Silicon
Valley spirit is thriving.
1. YC Demoday August 2014 ↩
9. Investment on Buzzfeed
Published on Twitter, August 10, 2014
Tonight I'm tickled pink to be able to talk about our new investment in Buzzfeed!
My partner Chris Dixon discusses our new investment in Buzzfeed here: http://cdixon.org/2014/08/10/buzzfeed/
We think of BuzzFeed as a technology company. They embrace Internet culture. Everything is first optimized for
mobile and social.
BuzzFeed has technology at its core. Its 100+ person tech team has created world-class systems... Engineers are
first class citizens.
And then on top of its technology core, Buzzfeed's reporting team is now routinely committing breathtaking investigative
journalism... Examples:
@maxseddon at the Malaysian airlines crash site in Ukraine: http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/chaos-at-malaysian-
airlines-crash-site-leaves-victims-by-the
@mike_giglio's war reporting from Syria: http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/inside-syria-al-qaeda-was-here
@itsjina's amazing story of Rwandan women flexing their political muscles: http://www.buzzfeed.com/jinamoore/how-rwandan-
women-got-their-power
@jlfeder on how Vladimir Putin uses anti-gay policies as a geopolitical strategy:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/russia-exports-homosexual-propaganda-law-in-effort-to-fight
@AramRoston on how the US covertly arms its proxies around the world: http://www.buzzfeed.com/aramroston/how-a-
one-time-pig-peddler-helped-the-us-flood-war-zones-wit
We think the opportunity in front of @peretti, @BuzzFeedBen, @zefrank, and their colleagues is effectively unbounded.
We are very excited to work with everyone at Buzzfeed to help them realize their dreams of a profoundly important new
media institution.
10. Golden Age of Journalism
Published on Twitter, August 10, 2014
Something I believe that a lot of people I know believe: We live in Golden Age of journalism as measured by quality of
top contributors.
I've collected 238 members of the press I most respect into this Twitter list: https://twitter.com/pmarca/press/members -- It's
a joy to read every day!
As I've discussed before1: Great unexpected side effect of Internet = best journalists have far broader reach now.
I can't resist singling out some who fall into category of "drop everything I'm doing to read anything they write" -- out of
many.
Politics: @MarkHalperin, @jheil, @MarkLeibovich, @nickconfessore, @harrispolitico -- it's routinely amazing how
deep they go.
Economics: @worstall explains the world we live in better than anyone; joined by @greg_ip and @Neil_Irwin for
deep dives into macro econ. Financial crisis made clear quality of reporting by @andrewrsorkin, @KateKellyCNBC,
@GZuckerman, @bethanymac12, and @BoydRoddy. At intersection of finance & economics, the ongoing work by
@TMFHousel and @matt_levine is truly extraordinary & deeply insightful.
1. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/marc-andreesen-why-im-bullish-on-the-news-
105921_Page2.html#.U-fY4oBdV5k ↩
11. Joel Mokyr
Published on Twitter, August 10, 2014
Outstanding new op-ed by best living economic historian, Joel Mokyr at Northwestern:1
"There is nothing like a recession to throw economists into a despondent mood. Much as happened in the late
1930s..."
"The economic growth experienced through the 20th century, they tell us, was fleeting. Our children will be no
richer than we are."
"What is wrong with this story? The one-word answer is technology...digital codification of information = reinvention
of invention."
"[Terms] like 'IT' don't begin to express the scope of the change...[array of] tools that the digital age places at
science's disposal."
"The consequences are everywhere, from molecular genetics to nanoscience to research in Medieval poetry."
"As science solves problems that were not even imagined, inventors, engineers and entrepreneurs are waiting in
the wings to design new gizmos and processes based on the new discoveries that will continue to improve our
lives."
"The economy may be facing some headwinds, but the technological tailwind is more like a tornado. Fasten your
seat belts."
"So: If everything is so good, why is everything so bad? Why the gloominess of so many of my colleagues?"
"[GDP and productivity] work for a steel-and-wheat economy, not [ours]... mismeasure the contributions of
innovation to the economy."
"Many new things are expensive to design, but copy at low/zero cost: Contribute little to GDP even if consumer
welfare impact is large."
I highly recommend Mokyr's books:
The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress
The Enlightened Economy: An Economic History of Britain 1700-1850 (The New Economic History of Britain seri)
I also highly recommend Mokyr's recent podcast with Russell Roberts from Nov 2013 -- an hour of genius.
1. http://online.wsj.com/articles/joel-mokyr-what-todays-economic-gloomsayers-are-missing-1407536487?
mod=_newsreel_2 ↩
12. Watergate
Published on Twitter, August 10, 2014
Something I believe that nobody I know believes: Woodward & Bernstein Watergate coverage precipitated 40yr collapse
of trust in print news.
That long slow slide of trust can be seen, among other places, in Gallup polls over the years.
After Nixon resigned 40 years ago this weekend, Washington Post Watergate coverage became exemplar for entire next
generation reporters.
Political press became obsessed with unearthing scandal, which metastasized throughout print journalism. Gunning for
Pulitzer bait.
There are clearly scandals that need to be unearthed, like Watergate. BUT: Endless scandal frenzy is exhausting and
demoralizing. Particularly when applied indiscriminately across news landscape, and particularly when extrinsic press
motivations are so clear.
Irony is we now know Woodward & Bernstein less reported Watergate than had story fed to them by Mark Felt, partisan in
internal FBI battle.
I think the 40 year echo effects of Watergate have more to do with the existential crisis of newspapers than anyone would
ever admit. As news consumers, endless barrage of scandal, tragedy, and conflict has real psychological effects. Makes
world seem worse than it is.
Followup reading that provokes thought:
http://dobelli.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/Avoid_News_Part1_TEXT.pdf
http://www.informationdiet.com/
http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~dtg/Gilbert%20et%20al%20(EVERYTHING%20YOU%20READ).pdf
Also the book "Breaking The News" by James Fallows is thought provoking and recommended.
And of course Steven Pinker on the broad perspective of our era.1
1. transcript: http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0143122010?pc_redir=1407566574&robot_redir=1 ↩
13. Financial Regulation
Published on Twitter, August 7, 2014
Lessons learned by managers and shareholders of large regulated financial institutions for the next financial crisis:
There is no risk of individual executive criminal prosecution whatsoever.
Bailouts are guaranteed, particularly for bondholders, for all but the weakest members of the herd.
The one thing that will get punished is acceding to the government's request/demand for stronger companies to buy
weaker companies.
Ultimate fines will be levied against your shareholder base 8 years in the future, not your shareholder base when the
sins are committed.
"Too big to fail" institutions will be allowed to become bigger than ever, increasing their safety buffer for next time.
For bonus points, regulatory barriers against new competition will be raised, not lowered, further entrenching
incumbents.
"Too big to jail" is real, according to the Attorney General of the United States.
Regulators on whose watch the last crisis happened, will be allowed to become even bigger and more powerful.
*All three gov't branches -- executive, legislative, and judicial -- are out to lunch on oversight.
Followup reading, from US Federal Judge Jed Rakoff: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/jan/09/financial-crisis-
why-no-executive-prosecutions/
14. Lyft Line
Published on Twitter, August 7, 2014
We 1 are very excited about the launch of Lyft Line 2, and I want to explain why!
Lyft and Lyft Line are an archetypal example of how Silicon Valley is going straight at the hard problems, in this case
transportation. A growing number of people know about the amazing consumer utility and convenience created by "a ride
on demand whenever you want". And in parallel, services like Lyft make it possible for people who may otherwise not be
able to make car payments to keep their cars. In many cities, this results in a triple win: Consumer convenience, driver
economic benefits, and improved business/tourism environment. But beyond that, as Lyft and its peers grow, ride sharing
becomes increasingly convenient and affordable as alternative to owning a car.
This leads to environmental benefits:
Fewer cars needed -> less natural resource utilization
Network efficiency -> fewer miles driven.
Online supply/demand matching eliminates need for cars-for-hire to drive around & look for riders. Network optimization
in bits not atoms.
Lyft Line is especially environmentally friendly: Facilitates multiple people riding together on same route, still with high
convenience! Everyone on planet wants equivalent to upper-middle-class American lifestyle. Services like Lyft make
possible without destroying planet. Everyone in world wants equivalent to upper-middle-class American lifestyle.
Services like Lyft make possible without destroying planet. Few new tech's deliver so much to so many: riders, drivers, car
owners, cities, environment. And to think it just looks like an app :-). Closing note: Lyft Line is classic "peace dividend of
smartphone wars" -- not possible pre universal smartphones.3
1. a16z ↩
2. http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/06/lyft-line/ ↩
3. http://cdixon.org/2014/03/18/we-leverage-the-billions-of-dollars-spent-on-the-consumer-mobile-phone-business/
↩
15. Table of Contents
Introduction 2
Challenge of VCs 2
Burn Rates 3
Movie Theaters 4
CEOs 5
Timing of Ideas 6
Big Problems 7
Buzzfeed 8
Journalism 8
Joel Mokyr 10
Watergate 11
Financial Regulation 12
Lyft Line 12