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http://www.alice.li - May 30, 2014
bridging the
Valley of Death
Samer Karam
CEO of
Pitched
KPCB
Founded
Wunbox
Founded
Cooki3man
Co-organized
ArabNet2010
Founded
Seeqnce
Accelerated
Cinemoz
Created&Deployed
Seedfund
Facilitated&Advising
$400MillionFund
Created
1stStartupIndex
Co-founded
alice.
All characters appearing in this image are fictitious. Any resemblance to real
persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental.
The $30 billion VC Market
The $30 billion VC Market
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
NetIRR
Vintage Year
source: Cambridge Associates, 2010 Benchmark Report
Median IRRMean IRR
Average VC Fund Returns
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1000
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
4.5
4
Returns
Fund Size (USD Millions)
source: Kauffman Foundation, VC Portfolio Analysis 1989-2007
Smaller Funds Perform Best
74
%
74
%
73
%
49
%
47
%
45
%
1st Round 2nd Round 3rd Round
2.8x 1.7x 1.3x
Partial Loss
Full Loss
average
money
multiple
source: Sand Hill Econometrics
Risk Doesn’t Decrease
the Valley of Death
PRE-SEED SEED GROWTHFUNDING GAP EARLY
source: Forbes
FOUNDATION MVP FIT VALIDATION GROWTHSTAGE
PRE-SEED SEED GROWTHINVESTMENT FUNDING GAP EARLY
VERY HIGH RISK HIGH RISK PRODUCT RISK MARKET RISK SCALE RISKRISK
VERY LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGHDATA
Bridging the Valley of Death
75%
measured
Business Model
Market
Team
Industry
Stage
Geography
MCDA
RiskModel
25%
mitigated
Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis Risk Model
Framework Expert Data Public Data
Private Data Adjust Learn
2 31
5 64
alice.
Variable 2-5%
(risk adjusted)
On Closing
0%Management
Variable 10-20%
(risk adjusted)
Performance
HighInvestor Calibre
Relative
(facilitated smartness)
Smart Money
VCs
0%
20-30%
lifetime
20%
High
Relative
(depends on VC )
Disrupting Startup Investing
Syndicates
0%
0%
up to 20%
Medium
Relative
(depends on lead)
Crowd-
investing
7.5%
0%
0%
Low
No
Yes
Continuous Due
Diligence
No No No
Yes
Investment Tracking
& Data Insights
No No No
200k-1M
(per startup)
Target Size 1M+ 100k-500k 25k-250k
Upcoming Startup Indexs™
15 Countries, 193m Population,
$4tn GDP
5000+ Startups
30 Accelerators
€250-300m total VC investment
CEE.1
MENA.1
15 Countries, 295m Population,
$2.4tn GDP
2200+ Startups
30 Accelerators
$150-200m total VC investment
www.alice.li
CEO Samer Karam
samer@alice.li
+44.20.32.90.89.70

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alice. Keynote - Bridging the Valley of Death - DigitalK 2014 - Sofia, Bulgaria