Mexican elections 2018

Av. Paseo de la Reforma 412, Piso 14, Col. Juárez, Del. Cuauhtémoc
CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
www.llorenteycuenca.com
1
Public Affairs
Technical note
Mexican elections 2018
Mexico City, 24 May 2018
In Mexico’s 2018 election, many in the country that are tired of corruption, inequality and
decades of sluggish growth will have to decide between trying to persevere and preserve
the incipient gains from the export-focused NAFTA era or shift to re-embrace a populist
model that wants to partially reject the export-led development model and focus on
boosting local industrial and agricultural output.
This July, voters in Mexico will elect a new president. As it stands, candidates from the PRI
and PAN parties are struggling to achieve momentum as they argue that Mexico needs
policy continuity.1
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, an old school-style leftist who once served as Mexico City’s
mayor, is leading in the polls. (Lopez Obrador is also known by his nickname, AMLO. He ran
and narrowly lost Mexico's last two presidential elections in 2006 and 2012).
AMLO’s supporters believe he is the only candidate who can confront Mexico’s corruption
problem and address the country’s longstanding social ills. Voters loyal to the PRI and PAN,
by contrast, see a dangerous and egocentric populist who might disrupt Mexico’s fragile
economic development trajectory and turn the country into a “Venezuela-style dystopia.”2
Although AMLO is framed as a leftist, his alliance made room for the PES, a socially
conservative party seeking to roll back progressive policies in the name of “family values,”
which could become the fourth-biggest force in the lower house. Meanwhile, AMLO’s
former party, the PRD, has joined forces with the center-right PAN’s coalition.
1
Forbes. Mexico’s 2018 Election: Populism vs Prudence. March 26th, 2018.
https://bit.ly/2rZAEHj
2
Ídem

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
2
The candidates
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
Juntos haremos historia (Together we’ll
make history), Movimiento de
Regeneración Nacional (MORENA),
Partido del Trabajo (PT), Partido
Encuentro Social (PES)
• Last Position: President of MORENA.
• Resumé: Former presidential
candidate from the PRD, PT and MC
(2 times); Mayor of Mexico City;
President of the PRD party; Former
PRD candidate for the governorship
of Tabasco (twice); President of the
PRI in the state of Tabasco.
• Education: Bachelor’s degree in
political science from the UNAM.
His unique ability to set the political
agenda, since his time as mayor of the
country's capital, has granted him huge
visibility and a significant fan base.
Over the last 17 years, he has been
campaigning to become president of the
Republic under a rhetoric of honesty and
policies geared towards helping the poor,
which has made Lopez Obrador the only
politician in Mexico who has a personal—
rather than party owned—voter base.
In other words, voters vote for him and
not for the party that nominates him,
which is why he commanded an
important exodus of politicians (and
supporters) from other left-wing parties,
like the PRD, into the MORENA party in
2014—his own political party.3
Between 2000 and 2005, AMLO was the
mayor of Mexico City. During that time,
he proved to be a good administrator of
3
Mexico Institute. Wilson Center. 2018
Elections Guide. https://bit.ly/2LjXgun
one of the largest cities in the world.4
He
launched cost-cutting measures,
improved security and stabilized the
city’s debts. In order to have a presence in
the city’s more vulnerable groups, AMLO
created social programs for children and
the elderly.
He professionalized the police
department and brought former New
York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani to help
him reduce crime in the capital. He also
promoted public-private partnerships to
revitalize parts of the city. In fact, he
partnered with Carlos Slim Helu, one of
the richest men in Latin America, to
transform the city’s center.
It is important to highlight that in
December 2017, Lopez Obrador
introduced his probable cabinet5
as an
effort to ease fears that he would wreck
the economy. In this context, AMLO
named several political actors that have
served previous PRI’s governments such
as Esteban Moctezuma for the secretary
of education, or Olga Sanchez Cordero, a
former Supreme Court judge whom
Lopez Obrador wants to be Mexico’s first
female interior minister.
For strategic positions such as Finance,
AMLO is thinking of Carlos Urzua, a
professor at Tec de Monterrey who was
finance minister of Mexico City from
2000 to 2003, when AMLO was mayor.
AMLO has also been working closely with
Marcelo Ebrard, former Mexico City
mayor, who played a role as a successor
of his work in the city. Nowadays, Ebrard
works as a political operator for AMLO
and others who are loyal to him, like
former Senator Mario Delgado, who is
running for Federal Deputy of MORENA.
4 Washington Post. AMLO’s profile.
https://wapo.st/2IBW4EW
5 Financial Times. Mexican presidential
frontrunner names cabinet of experts.
December 14th, 2017. https://on.ft.com/2IZ1EAq

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
3
Ricardo Anaya Cortes
Por México al Frente (For Mexico to the
Front), Partido Acción Nacional (PAN),
Partido de la Revolución Democrática
(PRD), Movimiento Ciudadano (MC)
• Last Position: President of the PAN
• Resumé: Secretary General of the
PAN; Federal Deputy (President of
the Chamber of Deputies 2013 – 2014);
Undersecretary of Tourism Planning;
Local Deputy of the state of
Queretaro legislature (PAN caucus
leader 2009 – 2012).
• Education: Ph.D. in political science
from the National Autonomous
University of Mexico (UNAM);
master’s degree in fiscal law from the
Valley of Mexico University (UVM);
bachelor’s degree in law from the
Autonomous University of
Queretaro.
The once called ‘boy wonder,’ Ricardo
Anaya’s meteoric rise in Mexican politics
occurred thanks to the support of former
PAN President Gustavo Madero. The
young politician occupied various
leadership positions within the PAN
before becoming president of the party,
when Gustavo Madero decided to run for
a seat in Congress.
From the party’s presidency, Anaya has
made a name for himself thanks to the
successes the party has had under his
guidance. The impressive 2016 run the
party had, where they snatched six
governorships previously governed by
the PRI—including the highly populated
Veracruz for the first time—took the
party to its highest total of states
governed in history (12 out of 32 states).
Anaya’s rise has been accompanied by
pragmatic decisions since he was the
leader of the party in the Chamber of
Deputies, but some of these decisions
have created frictions boosting divisions
within the party, especially when former
First Lady Margarita Zavala resigned in
order to be a party member and decided
to compete for the presidency as an
independent candidate.6
Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena
Todos por México (All for Mexico), Partido
de la Revolución Institucional (PRI),
Partido Verde Ecologista de México
(PVEM), Partido Nueva Alianza
• Last Position: Secretary of Finance
and Public Credit.
• Resumé: Secretary of Social
Development, Secretary of Foreign
Relations (under President Pena
Nieto); Secretary of Energy, Deputy
Secretary of Finance, Deputy
Secretary of Revenues, General
Director of Banrural and Financiera
Rural (as it was later known) (under
President Calderon).
• Education: Ph.D. in economics from
Yale University; bachelor’s degree in
economics from the Mexican
Technological Autonomous Institute
(ITAM); bachelor’s degree in law from
the UNAM.
Jose Antonio Meade is the ultimate
Mexican technocrat. Proficient in
multiple departments under two
different administrations, “Pepe” Meade
has become a political figure that lays in
the intersection between right-wing PRI
supporters and PAN supporters. The only
secretary that remained from the
Calderon (PAN) administration, Meade is
the son of a former PRI Federal Deputy
and Deputy Secretary of the Interior
under President Fox (PAN), Dionisio
Meade. His experience within the finance
sector has led two presidents to make
him Secretary of Finance in moments
6 Mexico Institute. Wilson Center. 2018

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
4
when the incumbent administration had
to send strong signals of stability to the
markets from what is essentially the
most powerful department in the
Mexican government.
Thanks to his past performance, Meade
increased his visibility over the past year,
particularly as the PRI struggled to find a
candidate who could beat the popular
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from a
pool of potential candidates that have to
carry the weight of the decisions of the
incumbent administration.7
Polls
The Oraculus survey aggregator,8
which
monitors citizens’ voter intention
regarding the election of the President of
the Republic, indicates that the candidate
of the coalition Juntos Haremos Historia
(Together We’ll Make History)
(Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional,
Partido Encuentro Social and Partido de
Trabajo), Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
is ranked first with 44% (41-47%), followed
by Ricardo Anaya Cortes, from Por
México al Frente (For Mexico in Front)
(National Action Party, Democratic
Revolution Party, Movimiento
Ciudadano), with 29% (27 -31%).
In third place is Jose Antonio Meade,
Todos Por México (All Together for
Mexico) (Institutional Revolutionary
Party, Green Ecologist Party of Mexico
and New Alliance), with 20% (18-22%).
7 Mexico Institute. Wilson Center. 2018
8 Oraculus. Poll of polls. https://oraculus.mx
The polls reflect a trend that reinforces
the growth phenomenon of the National
Regeneration Movement (MORENA), a
party that in just three years of formal
registration before the National Electoral
Institute (INE) became an important
electoral force, turning Mexico City into
one of its electoral bastions.
In contrast, the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) has lost
around three million votes in recent
years. In the State of Mexico elections,
the political bastion, PRI, lost 30.2% of the
effective votes cast, in spite of having
obtained victory with Alfredo del Mazo.
Other polls, such as Consulta Mitosky,9
show AMLO has the pole position with
32.6% of potential votes, followed by
Ricardo Anaya, with 20.5%. In third place,
we see Jose Antonio Meade with 14.5%. In
this poll, Mitofsky states 26% of voters
are still undecided.
9 ASCOA. Poll tracker: Mexico’s 2018
presidential election. https://bit.ly/2s1fvMl
44
29
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
López Obrador Ricardo Anaya José Antonio
Meade
Intention to vote

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
5
According to a poll published by
Reforma10
on April 30, AMLO was in first
place with 48%, followed by Ricardo
Anaya with 30% and Jose Antonio Meade,
with 17 percent.
10
ASCOA. Poll tracker: Mexico’s 2018
presidential election. https://bit.ly/2s1fvMl
Scenario 1: AMLO wins the
election
Until now, Lopez Obrador has increased
or, at least, maintained his lead in opinion
polls every month since December. Lopez
Obrador’s advantage has led to a focus on
how his MORENA party will fare in
national congressional and gubernatorial
elections also held July 1.
Also, we need to consider that a MORENA
victory of any kind will likely trigger
defections from PRD, a partner in Anaya’s
electoral alliance. According to Shannon
O'Neil, a member of the Council of
Foreign Relations, if AMLO wins July 1:
He would accept an agreement around
NAFTA, but his economic approach
would be more inward looking, focusing
on agricultural policy, energy sufficiency
and investment in refineries. In terms of
security, we may see “a slow-down,
maybe a pause, until the new
administration re-evaluates this
cooperation. AMLO is not naturally
inclined to the US.”
Scenario 2: Tactical vote
Analyzing the polls of 2006,11
we can say
the results of the Mexican elections are
not yet decided. On 2006, Felipe Calderon
started the presidential run in second
place with 24.9% and AMLO 30.6%; by the
end of the electoral process, Calderon
won with 35.91% and AMLO obtained
35.29%.
11 Consulta Mitofsky’s poll 2006

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
6
In the 2018 electoral process, Mexico
might see a different winner on election
day, above all because Mexicans could
decide the country’s fate with a tactical
vote. In this context, Ricardo Anaya
argues that the presidential election on
July 1 is now a two-horse race between
himself and AMLO, adding up that
“Mexicans should question themselves
what kind of change they want.”
Anaya explains that AMLO proposes
change “with ideas that are very old,
trapped in the past,” while his own ideal is
a modern democracy open to the world
and to new technology. So, according to
The Economist, Anaya offers the best
hope of defeating AMLO. He is only 39,
and he is a formidable debater and
political operator.
We need to consider that Margarita
Zavala’s resignation sums up a
percentage to Ricardo Anaya’s preference
vote. Massive Caller has published a poll
in which they ask “If Zavala had no
chances to win, and you may be forced to
use your tactical vote, for which
candidate would you vote? 50.5% of
people answered they would vote for
Ricardo Anaya.
If we consider that, in 2006, PRI ended up
in third place with 22.03%, and many of
them decided to vote for Calderon in
order to stop the arrival of Lopez
Obrador to the presidency, in this
scenario, we may see a similar reaction;
therefore, the Mexican elections are not
yet decided, and we still have almost 40
days to see a change of tendencies.
According to a LLORENTE & CUENCA
advisor, there are still almost 15 million
votes in dispute, because between April
and June, voters will be deciding how
they will vote. Furthermore, on July 1, the
candidates’ teams will also have to fight
for a remaining 10% of undecided voters.
24,9 23,5
30,6
35,91
22,03
35,29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Felipe Calderon (PAN) Roberto Madrazo (PRI/PVEM) AMLO (PRD/PT/Convergencia)
March vs Election Day 2006

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
7
What may happen to
Congress?
The battle for the legislature comes down
to two coalitions: one of which has
frontrunner AMLO as its presidential
candidate and MORENA as the main
party, and the other with Anaya as its
presidential candidate and the PAN as it
biggest force. Moreover, AMLO’s
“Together We’ll Make History” coalition is
expected to win the largest portion of
seats in both houses. The PRI polls are far
behind and, in the case of the lower
house, Consulta Mitofsky gives the
party’s coalition as few as 71 out of 500
seats.
AMLO’s ability to control Congress will
be key for his proposals, including a
review of major energy-sector reforms
enacted in recent years. Also, a majority
would allow Lopez Obrador to get his
budgets through the legislature without
obstructions.
We need to highlight that it’s highly
improbable that Lopez Obrador will gain
the two-thirds majority needed to reverse
laws like the landmark energy opening of
2014. But even with a simple majority, he
can certainly slow down some agenda
issues like the energy reform.
50,5
22,1
14,7 12,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Massive Caller
If #Zavala had no chance of winning and you were
forced to use your tactical vote, who would you vote
for?
Anaya Bronco Meade AMLO

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
8
Party Deputies Total
MORENA 172
205PT 22
PES 11
PAN 113
182PRD 32
Movimiento
Ciudadano
37
PRI 72
101PVEM 17
Nueva Alianza 12
The second debate
The Tijuana debate was organized with a
focus on trade, investment, border
security and migrant rights and it was
moderated by Leon Krauze and Yuriria
Sierra; also, it had a new format which
allowed the audience to ask the
candidates questions. Mexico's second
presidential debate has started with all
four candidates insisting that mutual
respect must be the basis for their
country's relationship with the
administration of U.S. President Donald
Trump.
Lopez Obrador, who in some polls has a
lead of 20 points over Anaya, recycled
much of his campaign rhetoric, and
pledged to make Trump respect Mexico if
he is elected.
Jose Antonio Meade defended current
President Enrique Pena Nieto's for
inviting Trump and Democratic
candidate Hillary Clinton to Mexico
during the U.S. 2016 campaign. Ricardo
Anaya, crossed the stage to address
AMLO face-to-face in a move that seemed
aimed at throwing Lopez Obrador off his
game. Anaya said Mexico needed to be
more assertive with the U.S. because
"they need us a lot"12
to enforce security
on the southern border.
In this context, according to some
analysts, Ricardo Anaya has won both of
the debates because he is a sharp debater
and has done his homework, also, they
highlight that Anaya provoked AMLO
into losing his cool.
The days ahead
We have to place the current elections in
a difficult economic and social context.
Also, since the election of U.S. President
Donald Trump, Mexico-U.S. relations are
not at their best, and NAFTA is under
great pressure; therefore, analysts are
expecting a deep change as to how
politics is done in Mexico. If tendencies
do not change, left-wing Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador will probably win, so for
days ahead, perhaps the last chances for
his opponents to turn the political tide
will come during the last presidential
debate, which will take place June 12, in
Merida, Yucatan.
As mentioned before, we believe think
that based on current voter tendencies
and polling, AMLO could win the election
with a wide range, but the tactical vote
may change the entire scenario, causing a
tight result between AMLO and Ricardo
Anaya.
12
NPR. Mexican Presidential hopefuls
debate relations with Trump and U.S.
https://n.pr/2LjZoCg

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
9
ANNEX
Highlights of the second
debate
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
• “The best foreign policy is the
domestic one. If the U.S. is
threatening us with a wall, and with
the militarization of the border...
what we have to do is strengthen our
economy. We are going to support the
migrants. We agree with NAFTA and
we must take advantage of that
relationship with the U.S.”
• “We have to raise the salaries in
Mexico... In the U.S. our people can
earn 10 times more than what they
earn here... We can't talk about a
commercial deal if we don't have a
balance in salaries.”
• “The countryside is abandoned, the
best way to face insecurity and
violence is to fight poverty and end
corruption... So that in... Guerrero,
they are not forced to plant drugs but
corn.”
Ricardo Anaya Cortes
• “Mexico does a lot for the U.S....
Mexico needs the U.S., but the U.S.
needs Mexico as well ... Why do we
require visas for countries that are
antagonists of the U.S. just so that
they have better control? How many
terrorists have entered the U.S. from
Mexico? Zero! We will put all on the
table; we will be firm.”
• “I have two concrete proposals:
increase the minimum wage to 100
pesos ($5) and increase it again in the
first four years of my mandate… and
to all of those who earn less than
10,000 pesos ($501) put in place
regulations so they don't have to pay
income taxes.”
• “For there to be security we have to
fight corruption. Many times the
police are with the bad guys; although
there are also very good people, we
are going to attack the causes,
promote sports and culture and
demand that the U.S. to do its part.”
Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena
• He defended President Nieto's
decision to invite Trump to Mexico
during the U.S. presidential campaign
in 2016: “Judging by the results,
President Pena Nieto didn't make a
mistake. President Trump has already
abandoned Iran deal ... and the Paris
accord. We are still negotiating
NAFTA, and we are making a great
effort... what works is diplomacy not
'spoiled' answers.”
• “Trade and investment have to serve
to close gaps; we have a great
distance between the north and the
south... and that's what trade and
investment are for... we have to
improve and work so that the
distance between north and south
becomes shorter...”
• “A big part of the problem has to do
with the arms that reach the thieves’
hands, and another big part has to do
with impunity... To prevent weapons
from coming in, we need to make our
customs impenetrable, and I promise
to do so.”

CP 06600 México, D.F. Tel +52 55 5257 1084
10
The dissemination and reproduction of the material
contained in this Report for commercial or non-
commercial purposes is authorized, citing in all
cases the source of the materials used.
For more information:
Alejandro Romero
Partner and CEO Americas
LLORENTE & CUENCA
T.: +1 786 590 1000 / C.: +1 786 4494140
600 Brickell Avenue, Suite 2020
Miami, FL Zip Code 33131
aromero@llorenteycuenca.com
Arie Ellstein
Senior Director of Public Affairs Area
LLORENTE & CUENCA
T.: +52 55 5257 1084 / C.: +52 1 55 5406 0195
Av. Paseo de la Reforma No. 412, Piso 14, Col. Juárez,
Del. Cuauhtémoc, C.P. 06600, Ciudad de México
aellstein@llorenteycuenca.com

Mexican elections 2018

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Mexican elections 2018

Similar to Mexican elections 2018 (12)

More from Alejandro Romero

More from Alejandro Romero (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Mexican elections 2018