The question: What is the probability that non-anthropogenic causes (e.g., asteroid, comet impacts, solar flares, a supervolcanic eruption or a stellar explosion) will be the cause of death, within a 5-year period, for more than 10% of humans alive at the beginning of that period by 2050? The answer: While it is difficult to predict with certainty the likelihood of non-anthropogenic causes of death for humans within a 5-year period, it is clear that the probability is relatively low. According to NASA, there are approximately 25,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that could pose a potential threat to Earth. While the likelihood of a major impact within a 5-year period is low, it is not impossible. For example, the Chelyabinsk meteor exploded over Russia in 2013. The impact was not fatal, indicating that while such events can be catastrophic, they may not necessarily result in widespread death. My estimation of the probability of this occurring is very low estimated to be approximately 0.001%. The most latest data says that the next asteroid to hit Earth is estimated to be in 2880 which is centuries away (Mack, 2022). While solar flares do not typically cause fatalities, they can indirectly lead to deaths by disrupting essential services and infrastructure. They occur in July 2025 at maximum solar maximum (Cappucci & Kunches, 2023). I think the damage to infrastructure and very high radiation exposure can cause exacerbate existing diseases (MacMillan, 2022). There is no cause-and-effect correlation between solar flares on your health directly. The estimation of the probability of widespread death is 12% (Near miss: The solar superstorm of July 2012). Supervolcanoes are rare but powerful volcanic eruptions that can cause widespread destruction and death. While the chances of such an event occurring are low, the consequences could be catastrophic. Existing data suggest that supervolcanic eruption will occur every 17,000 years on average and the last known event was 26,500 years ago which makes it very difficult to anticipate when the next supervolcanic eruption will take place (Supervolcanic eruption 2022). The probability of a supervolcanic eruption at Yellowstone National Park within the next few hundred years is approximately 0.00014% and I think the estimation for a supervolcanic eruption by other volcanoes is relatively the same (Questions about supervolcanoes). Stellar explosions can release vast amounts of energy and radiation that could have devastating consequences for life on Earth. The next supernova (supernova requiem) will appear around 2037 (Jenner, 2021). However, the next supernova that would detrimentally affect life on Earth is 50 light years away (What's a safe distance from a Supernova? 2022). The likelihood of a nearby star exploding is approximately 0.00003%. The estimation of the probability of non-anthropogenic causes being the cause of death for more than 10% of humans alive by 2050 is less than 1%. It is important to keep in.

1. The question: What is the probability that non-anthropogenic causes (e.g., asteroid, comet
impacts, solar flares, a supervolcanic eruption or a stellar explosion) will be the cause of death,
within a 5-year period, for more than 10% of humans alive at the beginning of that period by
2050?
The answer: While it is difficult to predict with certainty the likelihood of non-anthropogenic
causes of death for humans within a 5-year period, it is clear that the probability is relatively low.
According to NASA, there are approximately 25,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that could pose
a potential threat to Earth. While the likelihood of a major impact within a 5-year period is low,
it is not impossible. For example, the Chelyabinsk meteor exploded over Russia in 2013. The
impact was not fatal, indicating that while such events can be catastrophic, they may not
necessarily result in widespread death. My estimation of the probability of this occurring is very
low estimated to be approximately 0.001%. The most latest data says that the next asteroid to hit
Earth is estimated to be in 2880 which is centuries away (Mack, 2022). While solar flares do not
typically cause fatalities, they can indirectly lead to deaths by disrupting essential services and
infrastructure. They occur in July 2025 at maximum solar maximum (Cappucci & Kunches,
2023). I think the damage to infrastructure and very high radiation exposure can cause
exacerbate existing diseases (MacMillan, 2022). There is no cause-and-effect correlation
between solar flares on your health directly. The estimation of the probability of widespread
death is 12% (Near miss: The solar superstorm of July 2012). Supervolcanoes are rare but
powerful volcanic eruptions that can cause widespread destruction and death. While the chances
of such an event occurring are low, the consequences could be catastrophic. Existing data
suggest that supervolcanic eruption will occur every 17,000 years on average and the last known
event was 26,500 years ago which makes it very difficult to anticipate when the next
supervolcanic eruption will take place (Supervolcanic eruption 2022). The probability of a
supervolcanic eruption at Yellowstone National Park within the next few hundred years is
approximately 0.00014% and I think the estimation for a supervolcanic eruption by other
volcanoes is relatively the same (Questions about supervolcanoes). Stellar explosions can release
vast amounts of energy and radiation that could have devastating consequences for life on Earth.
The next supernova (supernova requiem) will appear around 2037 (Jenner, 2021). However, the
next supernova that would detrimentally affect life on Earth is 50 light years away (What's a safe
distance from a Supernova? 2022). The likelihood of a nearby star exploding is approximately
0.00003%. The estimation of the probability of non-anthropogenic causes being the cause of
death for more than 10% of humans alive by 2050 is less than 1%. It is important to keep in mind
that predicting rare catastrophic events with a high degree of certainty is challenging, and the
actual probability could be significantly different from this estimate.

2. this is the feedback I got: Your answer to prompt A nicely distinguishes between the different
candidate natural causes of extinction and provides useful sources. The estimate that solar flares
will case "widespread death" with 12% probability is curious. This is a very high number. Is it
really meant as an answer to the prompt? In any case, it seems likely that one specific potential
natural cause will dominate the others (solar flares? supervolcanoes?). It might sense to focus
more on that and treat the others more briefly, just outlining why they are relatively less
important.
please involve the feebaack to make the answer better