US Economy Monthly Developments
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Monthly development in the U.S. economy
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US Economy Monthly Developments
- 1. U.S. Economic Review Monthly Chartbook February 2016 Charts & data compiled by: M. Yıldırım Aktuğan Source: Wells Fargo Securites 16.02.2016 1
- 2. Real GDP growth rose at just a 0.7 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter. Final domestic spending was positive, but trade and inventories were drags. Inflation remains below the Fed’s 2 percent target. 16.02.2016 2
- 3. Retail sales rose a better-than- expected 0.2 percent in January, while the originally reported 0.1 percent drop in December was upgraded to a 0.2 percent increase. Control sales were up 0.6 percent. Overall a good report. 16.02.2016 3
- 4. The federal government ran a surplus of $55.2 billion in January. We look for outlay growth to outpace revenue growth in fiscal year 2016, leading to a higher budget deficit as a share of economic output. 16.02.2016 4
- 5. Job openings rebounded in December to 5.6 million, bringing the opening rate back to a series high of 3.8 percent. Turnover improved, with the quit rate rising to the highest point in the current cycle. 16.02.2016 5
- 6. Small business optimism declined more than expected in January, falling 1.3 points to 93.9. The index is now at its lowest level since February 2014. January’s drop may have been influenced by the slide in equity prices. 16.02.2016 6
- 7. The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) posted a 126.4 reading in January, rising 2.4 percent from a downwardly- revised December. Gains were broadly based, with commercial and institutional planning up on the month. 16.02.2016 7
- 8. For 2016, monthly job gains were expected to slow and labor costs to rise. Today’s gain of 151,000 jobs and rising unit labor costs reported earlier this week are consistent with this theme. The Great Divide continues. 16.02.2016 8
- 9. The U.S. trade deficit widened from $42.2 billion in November to $43.4 billion in December. Weakness in exports was broad based in December while a sharp rise in auto imports helped to pull up total imports. Net exports likely will continue to act as a headwind on overall U.S. GDP growth. 16.02.2016 9
- 10. The roughest edges of last week’s durable goods report were sanded down a bit, but the read on the factory sector is still firmly negative. Core capital shipments were up in December, but orders are falling off sharply. 16.02.2016 10
- 11. Reflecting a substantial slowdown in output growth and a sizable gain in hours worked, nonfarm productivity dropped at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in Q4 2015. Concurrently, ULC jumped on the quarter. 16.02.2016 11
- 12. The ISM non- manufacturing index came in weaker than expected in January. While the drop indicates a broadening slowdown in the economy, growth remains stronger than readings on industrial activity imply? 16.02.2016 12
- 13. The ISM manufacturing index edged up ever-so- slightly in January, but at 48.2 continues to signal weakness. Employment and inventories are firmly negative, but new orders suggest some modest relief ahead. Employment conditions in manufacturing deteriorated more quickly, with the index falling to 45.9—the lowest reading this cycle 16.02.2016 13
- 14. A strong 0.3 percent increase in personal income was not followed by strong consumption in December as personal spending was flat. However, personal spending was revised up in November, from 0.3 to 0.5 percent. 16.02.2016 14
- 15. Durable goods dropped 5.1 percent in December. Spending cuts on aircraft played a big role but steep declines in a number of other key sectors suggest business spending could be much weaker than expected. 16.02.2016 15