Caselet / Scenario Russias War in Ukraine Is Taking a Toll on Africa Russias war in Ukraine has disrupted Africas promising recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by raising food and fuel prices, disrupting trade of goods and services, tightening the fiscal space, constraining green transitions and reducing the flow of development finance on the continent, said United Nations Assistant SecretaryGeneral Ahunna Eziakonwa. Speaking at the US Institute of Peace on June 14, Eziakonwa, who serves as the UN Development Programmes assistant administrator and regional director for Africa, said the war has put households, communities and countries across Africa in a very precarious situation. Joseph Sany, vice president of the Africa Center at USIP, said: The critical question before us today is: How can African countries and their partners leverage their abundant resources and human capabilities to address the short-term impact of Russias invasion in Ukraine and advance their long-term development and security needs? In other words, he added, how can Africa make the best out of this very, very bad situation? The Pandemics Impact on Africa Prior to 2020, African countries were among the fastest growing in the world. The COVID-19 pandemic reversed decades of hard-won macroeconomic, socioeconomic and governance gains on the continent. For the first time in nearly three decades, Africas Human Development Index dropped. Millions of Africans lost their jobs and some 50 million were projected to be pushed into extreme poverty. Women and youth were hardest hit. Global trade disruptions constrained growth and many African countries suffered from a progressively shrinking fiscal space, said Eziakonwa. The pandemic worsened financial and societal inequalities in Africa, she added. In response to the pandemic, African countries put in place effective macroeconomic policies, made strategic investments and boosted COVID-19 vaccine production and rollout. While multilateralism appeared to be shrinking in the rest of the world, it was expanding in Africa, Eziakonwa said. By the end of 2021, Africa exceeded expectations of a 3.7 percent GDP growth, recording a 4.5 percent growth and showing its resilience and its muscle to bounce back, Eziakonwa said. The recovery was fragile but the continent appeared to be back on track toward attaining the UNs sustainable development goals, she added. On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked act of aggression. The aftershocks of the ongoing war are being felt around the world, including in Africa. War Disrupts Critical Imports While the level of trade, between the African continent as a whole and Russia and Ukraine, is insignificant, some African countries rely heavily on these two countries for critical imports, particularly wheat, fertilizers and steel. A disruption in these imports could adversely impact African countries. From left to right, USIP Director of West Africa programmes Oge Onubogu, USIP Senior Advisor Jo.

1. Caselet / Scenario
Russias War in Ukraine Is Taking a Toll on Africa
Russias war in Ukraine has disrupted Africas promising recovery from the COVID-19
pandemic by raising food and fuel prices, disrupting trade of goods and services,
tightening the fiscal space, constraining green transitions and reducing the flow of
development finance on the continent, said United Nations Assistant SecretaryGeneral Ahunna
Eziakonwa.
Speaking at the US Institute of Peace on June 14, Eziakonwa, who serves as the UN
Development Programmes assistant administrator and regional director for Africa, said
the war has put households, communities and countries across Africa in a very
precarious situation.
Joseph Sany, vice president of the Africa Center at USIP, said: The critical question
before us today is: How can African countries and their partners leverage their
abundant resources and human capabilities to address the short-term impact of
Russias invasion in Ukraine and advance their long-term development and security
needs?
In other words, he added, how can Africa make the best out of this very, very bad
situation?
The Pandemics Impact on Africa
Prior to 2020, African countries were among the fastest growing in the world. The
COVID-19 pandemic reversed decades of hard-won macroeconomic, socioeconomic
and governance gains on the continent. For the first time in nearly three decades,
Africas Human Development Index dropped. Millions of Africans lost their jobs and
some 50 million were projected to be pushed into extreme poverty. Women and youth
were hardest hit. Global trade disruptions constrained growth and many African
countries suffered from a progressively shrinking fiscal space, said Eziakonwa. The
pandemic worsened financial and societal inequalities in Africa, she added.
In response to the pandemic, African countries put in place effective macroeconomic
policies, made strategic investments and boosted COVID-19 vaccine production and
rollout. While multilateralism appeared to be shrinking in the rest of the world, it was
expanding in Africa, Eziakonwa said.
By the end of 2021, Africa exceeded expectations of a 3.7 percent GDP growth,
recording a 4.5 percent growth and showing its resilience and its muscle to bounce
back, Eziakonwa said. The recovery was fragile but the continent appeared to be

2. back on track toward attaining the UNs sustainable development goals, she added.
On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked act of aggression. The
aftershocks of the ongoing war are being felt around the world, including in Africa.
War Disrupts Critical Imports
While the level of trade, between the African continent as a whole and Russia and
Ukraine, is insignificant, some African countries rely heavily on these two countries for
critical imports, particularly wheat, fertilizers and steel. A disruption in these imports
could adversely impact African countries.
From left to right, USIP Director of West Africa programmes Oge Onubogu, USIP
Senior Advisor Johnny Carson and UN Assistant Secretary-General Ahunna
Eziakonwa, discuss the impact of Russias war in Ukraine on African economies.
In 2021, for example, Kenya imported almost 30 percent of its wheat from Russia and
Ukraine. A supply disruption would affect the production of bread in Kenya, which
Eziakonwa noted is the third most consumed food item in that country. Cameroon
imported 44 percent of its fertilizers from Russia in 2021. In West Africa, where planting
season is starting, analysts fear that this disruption could have a dire impact on crop
yields and compromise food security. And similarly, 60 percent of Ghanas iron ore and
steel imports come from Ukraine. As a result of the war, the construction industry in
Ghana is likely to face significant challenges.
An estimated 4.8 million jobs have been lost in Ukraine since the start of the Russian
aggression, according to a new brief by the International Labour Organization (ILO).
The study estimates that if hostilities were to escalate employment losses would
increase to seven million. However, if the fighting was to cease immediately a rapid
recovery would be possible, with the return of 3.4 million jobs. This would reduce
employment losses to 8.9 per cent, according to the brief, The impact of the Ukraine
crisis on the world of work: Initial assessments.
Government Revenues Impacted
A combination of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine has reduced trade and taxation
revenues of governments across Africa, even as countries are being forced to spend
on social safety nets. Countries are being asked to spend more with less coming in,
said Eziakonwa, adding that fiscal and monetary responses of sub-Saharan African
countries increased public indebtedness across Africa.
Meanwhile, downgraded credit ratings have increased borrowing costs for African
countries. UNDP research shows that biased credit ratings could be costing six African
countries $13 billion in additional interest rate payments, Eziakonwa said, adding:
Africa is borrowing at a much higher cost than the rest of the world.

3. Eziakonwa said one of the most pernicious effects of the war in Ukraine is imported
inflation. She cited the examples of Tanzania, where overall inflation spiked by 34
percent between February and April; Namibia, where transportation costs rose by 20
percent between March and April; and Cameroon, where food prices increased by 26
percent between February and March.
Warning of a Cold War Redux
The war in Ukraine is a clear and present danger to multilateralism, Eziakonwa said.
Indication of this can be found in the fact that development projects are being
postponed or cancelled as some development partners are put off by the higher costs
of projects while others are considering diverting funds to the humanitarian crisis
caused by the war in Europe. There are also signs of Africas development being
defunded. Its not the time to leave the continent behind, Eziakonwa said, adding that
there needs to be a greater understanding that the relationship with Africa is a
partnership of purpose and not a relationship of charity.
Describing a turn toward a political lens through which to view development in Africa
as a worrying trend, Eziakonwa said: An unwelcome tendency towards unilateralism
and a return to Cold War dynamics would be devastating for Africa, and indeed for the
world. She added: A Cold War redux will certainly exacerbate the recent retreat of
democratisation in parts of the continent where we have witnessed disruptive and
unconstitutional political transitions. It will also be discouraging for countries that are
trying to do the right thing, she said, while calling for an investment in robust and
meaningful multilateralism. She also suggested derisking Africas investment
ecosystem and proactively exploring the use of innovative financing mechanisms.
Impact on South Africa
South Africas annual consumer price index inflation rate surged to a 13-year high of
7.4 percent in June 2022, driven mainly by a rise in food and fuel prices. Fuel and food
prices soared globally due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict that disrupted commodity
markets. Food price inflation was exacerbated in South Africa by ongoing load
shedding, or prolonged power outages, that have increased costs along the supply
chain. As a result, South Africas food price inflation accelerated by 9.0 percent, the
highest level since February 2017. The consumer prices of grain-related and vegetable
oils products are expected to rise in the coming months, which will keep food inflation
at relatively higher levels. To help curb the escalating inflation rate, the South African
Reserve Bank increased the interest rate by 0.75 percent, raising borrowing costs to
their highest level since March 2020.

4. Question
Discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Africas supply chains. Citing country
specific examples, discuss the impact on the following factors:
i. Imports and exports in Africa
ii. Food and fuel prices in Africa
iii. Unemployment in Africa