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Climate Action and Economic Growth
- 1. Climate Action and Economic Growth Vinod Thomas Director General Independent Evaluation, Asian Development Bank APEA Tenth Annual Conference 11 July 2014 Bangkok, Thailand
- 2. Top Ten Risks: Global 1 Fiscal crises in key economies 2 Structurally high unemployment/underemployment 3 Water crises 4 Severe income disparity 5 Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation 6 Greater incidence of extreme weather events 7 Global governance failure 8 Food crises 9 Failure of a major financial institution 10 Political and social instability Source: WEF. Global Risks Report 2014
- 3. Top 5 Risks: Asia and the Pacific Source: ADB. Multinational survey of stakeholders 2012
- 4. Climate Change and Climate-Related Disasters 2013: 4th warmest since 18802013 Significant Climate Events
- 5. Growing Concerns -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 Celsius Annual Global Temperature Anomalies 1880-2013 Sources: NOAA –ESRL,NCDC, EM-DAT. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Total Number of Natural Disasters Worldwide 1970-2013 Hydrological Meteorological Climatological Geophysical Biological 250 300 350 400 450 ppm CO2 Monthly Mean 1959-2014 April 2014: 401 ppm
- 6. Exposure, Vulnerability, Hazards Intense Climate-Related Hazards Exposure Vulnerability DISASTER RISK Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Deviations Climate ChangeGreenhouse Gases
- 7. Major Sources of GHG Emissions Top Ten Country Sources of CO2, 2010 Sources: WDI, IPCC 2013; UN Habitat Total (kt) kg per PPP $ of GDP metric tons per capita 1 China 8,286,892 0.67 6.19 2 United States 5,433,057 0.36 17.56 3 India 2,008,823 0.36 1.67 4 Russia 1,740,776 0.56 12.23 5 Japan 1,170,715 0.27 9.19 6 Germany 745,384 0.23 9.11 7 Iran 571,612 0.49 7.68 8 Korea 567,567 0.38 11.49 9 Canada 499,137 0.36 14.68 10 United Kingdom 493,505 0.23 7.86 The world’s cities are responsible for up to 70% of harmful GHGs while occupying 2% of its land.
- 8. Mitigation: Transition into Renewable Energy 255 130 730 1100 0 300 600 900 1200 Low-carbon Power Generation Energy Efficiency Billiondollars Annual Investment Needs: 450 Scenario 2013 2035 Sources: IEA. Key World Energy Statistics 2013; IEA World Energy Investment Outlook 2014.
- 9. Mitigation: Losing Ground on Forests Top Countries Forest Loss (million hectares) 1 Russia 36.5 2 Brazil 36.0 3 Canada 26.4 4 USA 26.4 5 Indonesia 15.8 Worldwide 2000-2012 230 million hectares lost Commercial agriculture responsible for 40% of forest clearing • Soy fields and cattle ranches in Latin America • Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia Deforestation embodied in crop and livestock trade • Over a third went to EU Deforestation Tracks Sources: Global Forest Watch; Hosonuma; Karstensen; UNEP, European Commission.
- 10. Adaptation: Building Resilience Poorer economies are hit harder 99.6% of affected population and 87.8% of deaths from natural disasters in Asia-Pacific (2000-2010) come from low income or lower middle income economies Maplecroft Vulnerability Index 2014 •South Asia: ‘extreme risk’ •11 of 33 extremely vulnerable economies are in Asia •Five extreme risk cities: Dhaka, Mumbai, Kolkata, Manila, and Bangkok Sources: EM-DAT, UNESCAP 2012, Maplecroft 2013 Asia 38% Oceania 4%Americas 23% Africa 22% Europe 13% Global Distribution of Natural Disasters 1994-2013
- 11. Adaptation Success Story Bangladesh: Impact of similar cyclones Disaster Risk Reduction Investments, Bangladesh: $10 bn for flood/coastal management in the past 35 years Sources: DfID. 2005, Government of Bangladesh, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). 1970 1991 1997 2007 Cyclone (Scale) Bhola (205 kph) Bangladesh (260 kph) Bravo One (225 kph) Sidr (260 kph) Deaths 300,000 138, 000 410 4,000 Damage $ 86.4 m $ 1.8 b $ 1.5 b $ 1.7 b
- 12. Overcoming Barriers to Climate-Related Action Divergent local and global objectives Unilateral action with global dialogue Conflicting immediate and longer term needs Low hanging fruits Trade-off between sustainability and economic growth Factor climate change in growth models
Editor's Notes
- WEF: Global Risks Report 2014 Global risks could have far-reaching political, social and economic fallouts (WEF 2014) Significant negative impact for several countries and industries over a time frame of up to 10 years; systemic nature International systems of finance, supply chains, health, energy, and the environment are becoming more interdependent, that their level of resilience determines whether they become safeguards of stability or amplifiers of cascading shocks. Of the top ten risks of highest concern, four are directly or very closely linked with climate change: water crises, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, greater incidence of extreme weather events, and food crises. Risk with highest likelihood and most impact include: climate change, weather events, and water crises climate change exacerbates water-related risk
- Top 5 Risks in Asia and the Pacific (from ADB 2013 Multinational Survey 2012) 43% consider environment degradation and climate change as serious threats to economic and social development; another 38% consider them very serious threats Strong perception among media and civil society Government stakeholders are the least concerned about the environment (31% consider it very serious)
- Climate change affects us all and affects us all significantly: Focus 2013 The year 2013 is the fourth warmest year globally (tied with 2003) since records began in 1880. (NCDC) Warmest November-December in Russia Warmest summers in Japan and Korea Hottest March, Africa Warmest year, Australia Extreme Climate Disasters 2013 (NCDC; CRED Crunch Jan2014) Haiyan, Philippines: strongest typhoon to hit land in recorded history at 315 km/hr deadliest natural disaster in Philippines modern history, 6,200 deaths + 1,700 missing; 4 million displaced Estimated total damages: $ 6.5 billion to $14 billion Severe heat waves, China: daily maximum temperatures higher than 40°C; 40 killed Worst flooding in 120 years in Russia Most intense and extended flooding in Danube and Elbe river catchments since at least 1950 Torrential downpours and floods in Canada, its costliest natural disaster 308 catastrophes and disasters around the globe in 2013 (Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd) $140 billion in economic losses; 26,000 lives lost Asia: $62 billion in economic losses
- Trend of rising CO2 emissions, temperatures, increasing intensity of hazards and increasing number of disasters Since 1994, rate of GHG emissions continued to increase: 1985-1994: 1.46 1995-2004: 1.91 2005-2014: 2.09 CO2 levels breached the 400 ppm mark in April 2014 1994: 359 ppm Scientists: 450 ppm leaves us with an ice-free planet 9 of the 10 warmest years occurred in the 21st century (exception is 1998). 2010 is the warmest year on record. May 2014 is warmest May in record since 1880 (NCDC) 20 hottest years are all in the past 23 years, 1990-2013 20 coldest years are all before 1923 Warming of the climate system, since the 1950s, is unequivocal (IPCC WG1 2013)Average number of hydrological disasters per year increased fourfold from 1974-1983 to 2004-2013. Storms increased by 2.5 times; Climatological disasters by 2.7 times.
- IPCC: increasing temperature is due to anthropogenic increase in GHGs Anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations Likely increased global mean surface temperature in the range of 0.5°C to 1.3°C (1951 to 2010) Likely affected the global water cycle since 1960; intensification of heavy precipitation over land Very likely contributed to global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes since the mid-20th century Likely more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations Very likely contributed to global mean sea level rise since the 1970s through thermal expansion and glacier mass loss IPCC link is very important. To mitigate climate hazards, reduce GHG emissions Thomas et al: intensity of anomalies/hazards and exposure both linked to disasters Reducing exposure and vulnerability will decrease disaster risk.
- Mitigation: Focus on the major sources of GHG emissions. Biggest country contributors: China, US, India, Russia, Japan Inefficient consumption: China, Russia, Iran High consumption per capita: United States, Canada, Russia Biggest sector contributor: energy and heat (25%); and agriculture, forestry and other land use (24%)—more than the entire global transportation sector. According to the satellite data published by Global Forest Watch, the Earth lost some 230 million hectares of forests from 2000 to 2012—over nine times the size of United Kingdom. (Hansen et al 2013) The world’s cities are responsible for up to 70% of harmful GHGs while occupying 2% of its land. (UN Habitat 2011) 2015 urban: 54% world population; 48% of Asia 2030 urban: 60% world population; 56% of Asia
- Mitigation: Transition into Renewable Energy Share of renewables in total primary energy supply (IEA 2013) remained at 13% from 1973 to 2011 renewables include hydro, biofuels, geo, solar, wind, marine Share of renewables in electricity generation decreased from 22% (1973) to 20% (2011) share of natural gas jumped to 22% (2011) from 12% (1973) share of nuclear almost quadrupled from 3.3% (1973) to 11.7% (2011) Annual investment requirements towards 450 scenario (WEIO 2014) Almost 3 times the 2013 investment level in low-carbon power generation More than 8 times 2013 investment in energy efficiency Delaying measures to reduce emissions from the power sector reduces the amount of abatement that can be achieved by 2030 or even 2050 as a consequence of the “lock-in” effect linked to the long life of capital equipment.
- IPCC AR4: preventing deforestation is the mitigation option with the largest and most immediate carbon stock impact per hectare and per year globally. Limiting climate change will be practically impossible to achieve without reducing emissions from the forest sector. (UNEP) Afforestation and reforestation cannot offset increasing CO2 emissions from deforestation and fossil fuel. Countries with the most expansive forests also had the biggest areas of forest loss—Russia, Brazil, Canada, the United States and Indonesia—and account for more than 60% of global forest loss from 2000-2012. Indonesia’s deforestation (840,000 hectares) overtakes Brazil (460000 hectares) in 2012 (Margono et al 2014) Commercial agriculture accounts for 40% of total forest clearing.(Hosonuma et al 2012) Trade and global consumption of Brazilian beef and soybeans; in the last decade, 30% of the carbon emissions associated with deforestation were exported from Brazil; from soybean production and cattle ranching. (Karstensen 2013) Palm oil production is the largest direct driver of deforestation in Malaysia and Indonesia; Malaysia lost 4.7 million hectares rainforest from 2000-2012. Africa and South and Central America are the largest consumers of embodied deforestation 1990-2008: EU27 imported almost 36% of all deforestation embodied in crop and livestock products traded between regions.