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ByTheCourt.org	
  
	
  	
  World	
  Future	
  Society	
  
THE	
  FUTURE	
  OF	
  COURTS	
  –	
  
Convicted	
  by	
  a	
  Robot	
  –	
  REALLY?	
  
Herb Rubenstein Founder – herb@sbizgroup.com
July 26– San Francisco
Concept	
  for	
  ByTheCourt.org	
  
•  Create	
  a	
  100%	
  digital,	
  global	
  court	
  and	
  
alterna>ve	
  dispute	
  resolu>on	
  system	
  
•  Maximize	
  use	
  of	
  technology,	
  including	
  ar>ficial	
  
intelligence,	
  to	
  aid	
  in	
  decision	
  making	
  
•  Provide	
  media>on	
  services	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  “dispute	
  
avoidance	
  services”	
  
•  Apply	
  local	
  law,	
  relax	
  rules	
  of	
  civil	
  procedure	
  /	
  
evidence	
  the	
  way	
  the	
  American	
  Arbitra>on	
  
Associa>on	
  does;	
  demys>fy	
  and	
  simplify	
  legal	
  
process;	
  expand	
  access	
  
2	
  
CURRENT	
  SITUATION	
  
•  Court	
  systems	
  are	
  clogged	
  causing	
  delays	
  and	
  
expense;	
  government	
  sponsored	
  court	
  systems	
  
are	
  out	
  of	
  the	
  reach	
  of	
  people	
  all	
  over	
  the	
  world	
  
in	
  civil	
  cases	
  
•  Long	
  delays	
  in	
  the	
  court	
  system	
  
•  No	
  one	
  has	
  tapped	
  ar>ficial	
  intelligence	
  and	
  
modern	
  technology	
  to	
  allow	
  for	
  filing	
  claims	
  by	
  
cell	
  phone,	
  voice	
  recogni>on,	
  and	
  geVng	
  
decisions	
  very	
  quickly	
  
•  Court	
  =	
  building;	
  future:	
  Court	
  =	
  Globe	
  
3	
  
Court	
  =	
  Globe	
  
•  Rules	
  of	
  Evidence	
  –	
  Throw	
  us	
  all	
  you	
  got	
  
•  Rules	
  of	
  Civil	
  Procedure	
  –	
  Make	
  requests	
  and	
  provid	
  
informa>on	
  
•  Use	
  all	
  available	
  informa>on	
  on	
  the	
  web	
  to	
  decide	
  
every	
  case;	
  show	
  tracks	
  of	
  all	
  informa>on	
  searched	
  
via	
  ar>ficial	
  intelligence/cogni>ve	
  compu>ng	
  
•  Plus	
  all	
  informa>on	
  given	
  by	
  lawyers	
  
•  Every	
  case	
  has	
  a	
  mediator	
  or	
  judge	
  or	
  both;	
  could	
  
have	
  a	
  jury	
  
•  All	
  decisions	
  rendered	
  via	
  smart	
  phone	
  or	
  video	
  
4	
  
Small	
  Cases	
  To	
  Government	
  to	
  
Government	
  Disputes	
  
•  VISA	
  story	
  with	
  Dee	
  Hock	
  
•  Work	
  with	
  ar>ficial	
  intelligence	
  agent	
  
(Watson	
  or	
  other)	
  to	
  learn	
  how	
  to	
  handle	
  
more	
  and	
  more	
  types	
  of	
  cases	
  over	
  >me	
  
•  Can	
  even	
  have	
  juries	
  and	
  try	
  criminal	
  cases	
  
•  ALL	
  VOLUNTARY	
  SYSTEM	
  –	
  so	
  no	
  plans	
  to	
  use	
  
this	
  to	
  convict	
  people	
  and	
  throw	
  them	
  in	
  jail	
  
•  But,	
  it	
  could	
  get	
  there	
  someday	
  
5	
  
Criminal	
  Cases	
  
•  Easier	
  to	
  get	
  witnesses	
  and	
  evidence	
  
•  Quicker,	
  ogen	
  two	
  to	
  three	
  years’	
  delay	
  in	
  
going	
  to	
  trial,	
  incarcerated	
  
•  Beier	
  bonding	
  systems,	
  far	
  greater	
  use	
  of	
  
collateral	
  
•  Proba>on	
  and	
  parole	
  –	
  all	
  electronic	
  
monitoring,	
  cheaper,	
  fairer,	
  predic>ve	
  
analy>cs	
  to	
  help	
  steer	
  people	
  away	
  from	
  
proba>on	
  revoca>on	
  
6	
  
Handling	
  of	
  Evidence	
  
•  All	
  evidence	
  will	
  be	
  handled	
  in	
  the	
  cloud	
  and	
  
no	
  chance	
  of	
  evidence	
  being	
  lost,	
  
contaminated,	
  or	
  tampered	
  with	
  
•  Rules	
  of	
  evidence	
  are	
  changed	
  to	
  eliminate	
  
discovery	
  and	
  eviden>ary	
  disputes	
  that	
  are	
  
>me	
  consuming	
  and	
  wasteful	
  
•  All	
  evidence	
  preserved	
  and	
  to	
  the	
  extent	
  the	
  
par>es	
  allow,	
  available	
  for	
  use	
  in	
  other	
  cases	
  
7	
  
Improvements	
  Over	
  Current	
  Court	
  
System	
  
•  Reduce	
  cost	
  and	
  delays,	
  improve	
  access	
  
•  Minors,	
  undocumented,	
  anyone	
  can	
  easily	
  par>cipate	
  
in	
  system	
  and	
  receive	
  jus>ce	
  
•  No	
  expenditures	
  on	
  real	
  estate	
  or	
  transporta>on	
  to	
  
and	
  from	
  court	
  houses;	
  no	
  seVng	
  of	
  trial	
  dates	
  and	
  
geVng	
  con>nued;	
  fewer	
  >me	
  delaying	
  tac>cs	
  allowed	
  
•  Asynchronous,	
  24x7	
  court	
  system,	
  easy	
  filing	
  of	
  
documents	
  
•  Quick	
  appeal	
  with	
  two	
  levels	
  of	
  appeals	
  
8	
  
Expansions	
  Over	
  Time	
  
•  Will	
  create	
  a	
  “court	
  score”	
  like	
  a	
  credit	
  score	
  
for	
  all	
  par>cipants	
  that	
  could	
  have	
  great	
  
economic	
  value	
  in	
  this	
  more	
  transparent	
  
world	
  
•  Will	
  eventually	
  peel	
  off	
  business	
  from	
  current	
  
court	
  and	
  proba>on/parole	
  system	
  to	
  handle	
  
rou>ne	
  maiers	
  on	
  line	
  rather	
  than	
  through	
  
courts	
  
9	
  
Business	
  Model	
  (con’t)	
  
•  Rapid	
  resolu>on	
  of	
  disputes	
  will	
  increase	
  the	
  
value	
  of	
  many	
  businesses,	
  improve	
  the	
  lives	
  of	
  
many	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  
•  Can	
  handle	
  “class	
  ac>on	
  cases”	
  easily	
  with	
  
individuals	
  filing	
  their	
  own	
  claims	
  electronically	
  at	
  
very	
  low	
  cost	
  
•  Possible	
  early	
  introduc>on	
  of	
  ByTheCourt	
  in	
  Cuba	
  
which	
  will	
  have	
  the	
  need	
  for	
  an	
  expanded	
  court	
  
system	
  if	
  it	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  do	
  more	
  business	
  with	
  the	
  
US	
  or	
  Estonia	
  which	
  is	
  very	
  advanced	
  using	
  virtual	
  
systems;	
  Goal	
  190	
  Countries	
  in	
  20	
  years	
  
10	
  
Why	
  Now?	
  
•  Convergence	
  of	
  technology,	
  public	
  availability	
  of	
  laws,	
  
computer	
  assisted	
  legal	
  research,	
  	
  
•  Government	
  courts,	
  benefit	
  delays,	
  are	
  not	
  sustainable,	
  
and	
  people	
  are	
  losing	
  faith	
  in	
  them	
  
•  Micro	
  sales	
  and	
  low	
  fees	
  can	
  generate	
  huge	
  revenues	
  from	
  
a	
  global	
  enterprise	
  
•  Once	
  court	
  system	
  is	
  built,	
  there	
  would	
  be	
  great	
  barriers	
  to	
  
entry,	
  strong	
  switching	
  costs,	
  we	
  would	
  able	
  to	
  embed	
  our	
  
court	
  system	
  into	
  businesses	
  and	
  organiza>ons,	
  would	
  
have	
  organic	
  demand	
  growth,	
  low	
  sales	
  costs,	
  large	
  self-­‐
service	
  component,	
  high	
  loyalty	
  
•  Backlog	
  of	
  1,000,000	
  social	
  security	
  disability	
  cases	
  pending	
  
and	
  backlog	
  is	
  growing	
  every	
  day	
  
11	
  
Ecosystem	
  Strengths	
  Analysis	
  
•  A	
  new	
  futurist	
  tool	
  for	
  predic>ng,	
  naviga>ng	
  
and	
  preparing	
  for	
  the	
  future.	
  
•  Not	
  a	
  trends	
  analysis,	
  or	
  scenario	
  planning	
  
approach,	
  or	
  three	
  horizons,	
  or	
  foresight	
  
analysis,	
  but	
  includes	
  aspects	
  of	
  each	
  type	
  of	
  
futurist	
  tool	
  
•  Five	
  steps	
  to	
  the	
  ESA	
  –	
  Ecosystem	
  Strengths	
  
Analysis	
  
12	
  
Five	
  Steps	
  
•  STEP	
  1	
  -­‐	
  Iden>fy	
  the	
  poten>al	
  futuris>c	
  
poten>al	
  occurrence	
  by	
  sector,	
  key	
  players,	
  
key	
  drivers,	
  economic	
  analysis	
  (cost	
  savings	
  or	
  
value	
  enhancement),	
  poli>cal	
  analysis,	
  
technology	
  capabili>es,	
  environmental	
  
impacts,	
  legal	
  changes	
  necessary,	
  expert	
  
commentary	
  on	
  likelihood	
  of	
  new	
  occurrence	
  
like	
  www.techcast.org	
  created	
  by	
  Bill	
  Halal	
  
•  Preiy	
  common	
  form	
  of	
  analysis	
  -­‐	
  PESTEL	
  
13	
  
Step	
  2	
  
•  Develop	
  an	
  STATIC	
  Ecosystem	
  Map	
  of	
  key	
  
players	
  in	
  the	
  sector	
  and	
  weigh	
  if/when	
  they	
  
are/will	
  be	
  suppor>ve	
  of	
  the	
  innova>on	
  or	
  
new	
  thing	
  
– Assess	
  rela>ve	
  strengths	
  of	
  key	
  players	
  
– Look	
  for	
  >pping	
  points	
  that	
  either	
  bring	
  in	
  new	
  
players	
  (UBER,	
  AirBNB)	
  or	
  change	
  the	
  way	
  current	
  
players	
  posi>on	
  themselves	
  on	
  the	
  issue	
  
(Confederate	
  Flag)	
  
– Chart	
  the	
  future	
  course	
  of	
  possible	
  >pping	
  points	
  
14	
  
Step	
  3	
  
•  Redraw	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  map	
  for	
  periods	
  of	
  one	
  
year,	
  three	
  years,	
  five,	
  ten,	
  etc.	
  going	
  forward	
  
and	
  assess	
  how	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  changes	
  and	
  
how	
  strong	
  it	
  is	
  in	
  favor	
  or	
  against	
  a	
  change	
  
(driverless	
  cars	
  –	
  Military	
  need	
  in	
  1980,	
  
consumer	
  device	
  2020)	
  
•  Monitor	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  evolu>on	
  to	
  help	
  
assess	
  likelihood	
  of	
  event/innova>on	
  coming	
  
to	
  popularity	
  
15	
  
Step	
  4	
  
•  Be	
  able	
  to	
  say,	
  when	
  X	
  happens,	
  this	
  
innova>on	
  will	
  become	
  “mainstream”	
  
•  Assess	
  economic	
  and	
  poli>cal	
  strength	
  of	
  each	
  
ecosystem	
  element	
  and	
  see	
  how	
  it	
  evolves	
  
with	
  changes	
  that	
  propel	
  the	
  innova>on	
  
(renewable	
  energy	
  vs.	
  coal	
  and	
  fossil	
  fuels)	
  
•  Be	
  sure	
  to	
  do	
  this	
  interna>onally	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  
na>onally	
  or	
  within	
  a	
  market	
  
16	
  
Step	
  5	
  
•  Discuss	
  how	
  to	
  help	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  winners	
  and	
  
losers,	
  our	
  poten>al	
  clients,	
  at	
  each	
  step	
  of	
  the	
  
way.	
  	
  (Coal	
  companies	
  buy	
  renewable	
  companies	
  
or	
  u>lity	
  like	
  Florida	
  Power	
  and	
  buys	
  coal	
  plant	
  
just	
  to	
  shut	
  it	
  down	
  and	
  replace	
  power	
  
genera>on	
  with	
  less	
  pollu>ng	
  ac>vi>es)	
  
•  Goal:	
  Avoid	
  stranded	
  assets,	
  but	
  up	
  assets	
  which	
  
will	
  gain	
  in	
  value,	
  build	
  strengths	
  to	
  producing	
  
new	
  good	
  or	
  service	
  that	
  ecosystem	
  supports	
  
17	
  
Courts	
  and	
  The	
  Ecosystem	
  Strenths	
  
Analysis	
  
•  Major	
  players	
  in	
  the	
  Court	
  System	
  
– Lawyers,	
  law	
  firms,	
  judges,	
  court	
  personnel,	
  court	
  
builders,	
  maintenance	
  staff,	
  proba>on	
  officers,	
  
laws,	
  rules	
  of	
  evidence	
  and	
  procedure	
  
– All	
  dead	
  set	
  against	
  Digital	
  Court	
  System	
  now	
  
– People	
  who	
  use	
  or	
  are	
  used	
  by	
  the	
  Courts	
  –	
  have	
  
no	
  power	
  as	
  ecosystem	
  player	
  
– Delays	
  and	
  problems	
  of	
  our	
  courts	
  only	
  hurt	
  the	
  
people,	
  not	
  the	
  other	
  ecosystem	
  elements	
  in	
  our	
  
legal	
  system	
  
18	
  
Ecosystem	
  Analysis	
  &	
  The	
  Courts	
  
•  No	
  change	
  in	
  the	
  current	
  system	
  possible	
  
•  American	
  Arbitra>on,	
  Modria	
  (ebay)	
  dispute	
  
resolu>on	
  system	
  begin	
  and	
  flourish	
  
•  Technology	
  can	
  cut	
  the	
  cost	
  by	
  99%	
  of	
  all	
  
li>ga>on	
  and	
  improve	
  “court	
  generated	
  
delays”	
  by	
  99%	
  
•  Strong	
  economic	
  drivers	
  for	
  digital	
  court	
  
system	
  –	
  needs	
  early,	
  big	
  adopters	
  
19	
  
Interna>onally	
  
•  US	
  unlikely	
  candidate	
  for	
  early	
  adop>on	
  –	
  
Churchill	
  quote	
  
•  Countries	
  that	
  want	
  to	
  rid	
  judicial	
  system	
  of	
  
bribery,	
  delays,	
  no	
  access	
  to	
  jus>ce	
  will	
  be	
  
early	
  adopters	
  
•  Business	
  will	
  want	
  to	
  cut	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  resolving	
  
disputes	
  (ebay)	
  
•  People	
  will	
  gain	
  power	
  and	
  vote	
  with	
  their	
  
pocketbooks	
  (Amer	
  Arbitra>on)	
  
20	
  
Unstoppable	
  Ecosystem	
  Elements	
  
•  99%	
  rule	
  –	
  do	
  it	
  99%	
  beier,	
  cheaper,	
  quicker	
  
you	
  eventually	
  win	
  –	
  UBER,	
  AirBNB,	
  
Cellphones,	
  Online	
  Airplane	
  Tickets	
  
•  But	
  only	
  if	
  ecosystem	
  elements	
  have	
  the	
  
power,	
  resources,	
  and	
  leadership	
  to	
  make	
  the	
  
change	
  
•  Ecosystem	
  Strengths	
  Analysis	
  suggests	
  in	
  this	
  
situa>on	
  –	
  100%	
  digital	
  courts	
  to	
  rise	
  in	
  third	
  
world	
  and	
  spread,	
  eventually	
  to	
  US	
  
21	
  
Conclusion	
  
•  We	
  es>mate	
  one	
  year	
  and	
  X	
  dollars	
  to	
  build	
  prototype,	
  pilot	
  test,	
  
and	
  be	
  ready	
  to	
  accept	
  cases	
  globally;	
  We	
  could	
  start	
  media>ons	
  
sooner,	
  but	
  want	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  major	
  roll	
  out	
  when	
  we	
  start	
  and	
  be	
  
able	
  to	
  protect	
  our	
  intellectual	
  property	
  
•  We	
  can	
  begin	
  to	
  screen	
  and	
  cer>fy	
  “judges,”	
  mediators	
  and	
  part	
  
>me	
  personnel	
  to	
  supervise	
  each	
  case,	
  provide	
  customer	
  service	
  
•  We	
  can	
  build	
  a	
  global	
  network	
  as	
  the	
  founder,	
  Herb	
  Rubenstein,	
  
teaches	
  at	
  the	
  Global	
  Energy	
  Management	
  Program	
  of	
  UC	
  Denver	
  
•  We	
  can	
  find	
  local	
  country	
  partners	
  and	
  ways	
  to	
  sell	
  our	
  big	
  data	
  
without	
  compromising	
  the	
  privacy	
  and	
  security	
  of	
  our	
  court	
  system	
  
•  We	
  will	
  not	
  seek	
  adver>sing	
  revenue	
  in	
  our	
  business	
  model,	
  but	
  will	
  
be	
  open	
  to	
  many	
  sources	
  of	
  revenue	
  where	
  we	
  create	
  value	
  
22	
  
Ecosystem	
  System	
  Suppor>ve	
  of	
  100%	
  
Digital	
  Courts	
  
•  The	
  hundreds	
  of	
  thousands	
  of	
  judges	
  and	
  
mediators	
  who	
  will	
  be	
  hired	
  by	
  digital	
  court	
  
system	
  
•  The	
  technology	
  companies	
  that	
  will	
  be	
  the	
  
backbone	
  (Verizon,	
  CISCO,	
  IBM,	
  etc.)	
  
•  People	
  who	
  want	
  faster,	
  cheaper	
  dispute	
  
resolu>on	
  and	
  jus>ce	
  (Think	
  of	
  El	
  Chapo	
  –	
  
embed	
  him	
  with	
  a	
  computer	
  chip	
  and	
  you	
  can	
  
track	
  him	
  leaving	
  the	
  prison!)	
  
23	
  
Ecosystem	
  Supporters	
  (Con’t)	
  
•  Governments	
  who	
  want	
  to	
  end	
  bribery	
  in	
  their	
  
court	
  systems	
  (very	
  few,	
  actually)	
  
•  Companies	
  who	
  want	
  fair	
  and	
  resolu>on	
  of	
  
interna>onal	
  disputes	
  
•  Universi>es	
  to	
  train	
  the	
  judges	
  and	
  mediators	
  in	
  
every	
  country	
  and	
  recer>fy	
  them	
  
•  Human	
  Resource	
  Companies	
  like	
  
PriceWaterHouse	
  Coopers	
  who	
  might	
  employ	
  the	
  
hundreds	
  of	
  thousands	
  of	
  judges	
  and	
  mediators	
  
24	
  
Conclusion	
  
•  Ideas	
  maier,	
  but	
  not	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  the	
  strength	
  of	
  
ecosystems	
  
•  Ecosystems	
  drive	
  what	
  changes	
  or	
  does	
  not	
  
change	
  
•  The	
  Futurist	
  Profession	
  should	
  pay	
  more	
  
aien>on	
  to	
  ecosystem	
  strength	
  analysis	
  -­‐	
  “ESA”	
  
•  Forthcoming	
  white	
  papers	
  and	
  more	
  detailed	
  
explana>on	
  of	
  the	
  ESA.	
  	
  
•  Ques>ons	
  and	
  Comments	
  
25	
  
Contact	
  informa>on	
  
•  Herb	
  Rubenstein	
  
•  herb@sbizgroup.com	
  
•  303.910.7961	
  
•  347.916.1317	
  
•  Member	
  DC,	
  MD	
  and	
  VA	
  Bar	
  Associa>ons;	
  New	
  
York	
  City	
  Bar	
  Associa>on	
  
•  Office:	
  255	
  Dean	
  Street,	
  Unit	
  1,	
  Brooklyn,	
  NY	
  
11217	
  
•  Skype	
  -­‐	
  herbrubensteinr	
  
26	
  

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The Future of Courts - Convicted by a Robot - REALLY?

  • 1. ByTheCourt.org      World  Future  Society   THE  FUTURE  OF  COURTS  –   Convicted  by  a  Robot  –  REALLY?   Herb Rubenstein Founder – herb@sbizgroup.com July 26– San Francisco
  • 2. Concept  for  ByTheCourt.org   •  Create  a  100%  digital,  global  court  and   alterna>ve  dispute  resolu>on  system   •  Maximize  use  of  technology,  including  ar>ficial   intelligence,  to  aid  in  decision  making   •  Provide  media>on  services  as  well  as  “dispute   avoidance  services”   •  Apply  local  law,  relax  rules  of  civil  procedure  /   evidence  the  way  the  American  Arbitra>on   Associa>on  does;  demys>fy  and  simplify  legal   process;  expand  access   2  
  • 3. CURRENT  SITUATION   •  Court  systems  are  clogged  causing  delays  and   expense;  government  sponsored  court  systems   are  out  of  the  reach  of  people  all  over  the  world   in  civil  cases   •  Long  delays  in  the  court  system   •  No  one  has  tapped  ar>ficial  intelligence  and   modern  technology  to  allow  for  filing  claims  by   cell  phone,  voice  recogni>on,  and  geVng   decisions  very  quickly   •  Court  =  building;  future:  Court  =  Globe   3  
  • 4. Court  =  Globe   •  Rules  of  Evidence  –  Throw  us  all  you  got   •  Rules  of  Civil  Procedure  –  Make  requests  and  provid   informa>on   •  Use  all  available  informa>on  on  the  web  to  decide   every  case;  show  tracks  of  all  informa>on  searched   via  ar>ficial  intelligence/cogni>ve  compu>ng   •  Plus  all  informa>on  given  by  lawyers   •  Every  case  has  a  mediator  or  judge  or  both;  could   have  a  jury   •  All  decisions  rendered  via  smart  phone  or  video   4  
  • 5. Small  Cases  To  Government  to   Government  Disputes   •  VISA  story  with  Dee  Hock   •  Work  with  ar>ficial  intelligence  agent   (Watson  or  other)  to  learn  how  to  handle   more  and  more  types  of  cases  over  >me   •  Can  even  have  juries  and  try  criminal  cases   •  ALL  VOLUNTARY  SYSTEM  –  so  no  plans  to  use   this  to  convict  people  and  throw  them  in  jail   •  But,  it  could  get  there  someday   5  
  • 6. Criminal  Cases   •  Easier  to  get  witnesses  and  evidence   •  Quicker,  ogen  two  to  three  years’  delay  in   going  to  trial,  incarcerated   •  Beier  bonding  systems,  far  greater  use  of   collateral   •  Proba>on  and  parole  –  all  electronic   monitoring,  cheaper,  fairer,  predic>ve   analy>cs  to  help  steer  people  away  from   proba>on  revoca>on   6  
  • 7. Handling  of  Evidence   •  All  evidence  will  be  handled  in  the  cloud  and   no  chance  of  evidence  being  lost,   contaminated,  or  tampered  with   •  Rules  of  evidence  are  changed  to  eliminate   discovery  and  eviden>ary  disputes  that  are   >me  consuming  and  wasteful   •  All  evidence  preserved  and  to  the  extent  the   par>es  allow,  available  for  use  in  other  cases   7  
  • 8. Improvements  Over  Current  Court   System   •  Reduce  cost  and  delays,  improve  access   •  Minors,  undocumented,  anyone  can  easily  par>cipate   in  system  and  receive  jus>ce   •  No  expenditures  on  real  estate  or  transporta>on  to   and  from  court  houses;  no  seVng  of  trial  dates  and   geVng  con>nued;  fewer  >me  delaying  tac>cs  allowed   •  Asynchronous,  24x7  court  system,  easy  filing  of   documents   •  Quick  appeal  with  two  levels  of  appeals   8  
  • 9. Expansions  Over  Time   •  Will  create  a  “court  score”  like  a  credit  score   for  all  par>cipants  that  could  have  great   economic  value  in  this  more  transparent   world   •  Will  eventually  peel  off  business  from  current   court  and  proba>on/parole  system  to  handle   rou>ne  maiers  on  line  rather  than  through   courts   9  
  • 10. Business  Model  (con’t)   •  Rapid  resolu>on  of  disputes  will  increase  the   value  of  many  businesses,  improve  the  lives  of   many  in  the  world   •  Can  handle  “class  ac>on  cases”  easily  with   individuals  filing  their  own  claims  electronically  at   very  low  cost   •  Possible  early  introduc>on  of  ByTheCourt  in  Cuba   which  will  have  the  need  for  an  expanded  court   system  if  it  is  going  to  do  more  business  with  the   US  or  Estonia  which  is  very  advanced  using  virtual   systems;  Goal  190  Countries  in  20  years   10  
  • 11. Why  Now?   •  Convergence  of  technology,  public  availability  of  laws,   computer  assisted  legal  research,     •  Government  courts,  benefit  delays,  are  not  sustainable,   and  people  are  losing  faith  in  them   •  Micro  sales  and  low  fees  can  generate  huge  revenues  from   a  global  enterprise   •  Once  court  system  is  built,  there  would  be  great  barriers  to   entry,  strong  switching  costs,  we  would  able  to  embed  our   court  system  into  businesses  and  organiza>ons,  would   have  organic  demand  growth,  low  sales  costs,  large  self-­‐ service  component,  high  loyalty   •  Backlog  of  1,000,000  social  security  disability  cases  pending   and  backlog  is  growing  every  day   11  
  • 12. Ecosystem  Strengths  Analysis   •  A  new  futurist  tool  for  predic>ng,  naviga>ng   and  preparing  for  the  future.   •  Not  a  trends  analysis,  or  scenario  planning   approach,  or  three  horizons,  or  foresight   analysis,  but  includes  aspects  of  each  type  of   futurist  tool   •  Five  steps  to  the  ESA  –  Ecosystem  Strengths   Analysis   12  
  • 13. Five  Steps   •  STEP  1  -­‐  Iden>fy  the  poten>al  futuris>c   poten>al  occurrence  by  sector,  key  players,   key  drivers,  economic  analysis  (cost  savings  or   value  enhancement),  poli>cal  analysis,   technology  capabili>es,  environmental   impacts,  legal  changes  necessary,  expert   commentary  on  likelihood  of  new  occurrence   like  www.techcast.org  created  by  Bill  Halal   •  Preiy  common  form  of  analysis  -­‐  PESTEL   13  
  • 14. Step  2   •  Develop  an  STATIC  Ecosystem  Map  of  key   players  in  the  sector  and  weigh  if/when  they   are/will  be  suppor>ve  of  the  innova>on  or   new  thing   – Assess  rela>ve  strengths  of  key  players   – Look  for  >pping  points  that  either  bring  in  new   players  (UBER,  AirBNB)  or  change  the  way  current   players  posi>on  themselves  on  the  issue   (Confederate  Flag)   – Chart  the  future  course  of  possible  >pping  points   14  
  • 15. Step  3   •  Redraw  the  ecosystem  map  for  periods  of  one   year,  three  years,  five,  ten,  etc.  going  forward   and  assess  how  the  ecosystem  changes  and   how  strong  it  is  in  favor  or  against  a  change   (driverless  cars  –  Military  need  in  1980,   consumer  device  2020)   •  Monitor  the  ecosystem  evolu>on  to  help   assess  likelihood  of  event/innova>on  coming   to  popularity   15  
  • 16. Step  4   •  Be  able  to  say,  when  X  happens,  this   innova>on  will  become  “mainstream”   •  Assess  economic  and  poli>cal  strength  of  each   ecosystem  element  and  see  how  it  evolves   with  changes  that  propel  the  innova>on   (renewable  energy  vs.  coal  and  fossil  fuels)   •  Be  sure  to  do  this  interna>onally  as  well  as   na>onally  or  within  a  market   16  
  • 17. Step  5   •  Discuss  how  to  help  the  ecosystem  winners  and   losers,  our  poten>al  clients,  at  each  step  of  the   way.    (Coal  companies  buy  renewable  companies   or  u>lity  like  Florida  Power  and  buys  coal  plant   just  to  shut  it  down  and  replace  power   genera>on  with  less  pollu>ng  ac>vi>es)   •  Goal:  Avoid  stranded  assets,  but  up  assets  which   will  gain  in  value,  build  strengths  to  producing   new  good  or  service  that  ecosystem  supports   17  
  • 18. Courts  and  The  Ecosystem  Strenths   Analysis   •  Major  players  in  the  Court  System   – Lawyers,  law  firms,  judges,  court  personnel,  court   builders,  maintenance  staff,  proba>on  officers,   laws,  rules  of  evidence  and  procedure   – All  dead  set  against  Digital  Court  System  now   – People  who  use  or  are  used  by  the  Courts  –  have   no  power  as  ecosystem  player   – Delays  and  problems  of  our  courts  only  hurt  the   people,  not  the  other  ecosystem  elements  in  our   legal  system   18  
  • 19. Ecosystem  Analysis  &  The  Courts   •  No  change  in  the  current  system  possible   •  American  Arbitra>on,  Modria  (ebay)  dispute   resolu>on  system  begin  and  flourish   •  Technology  can  cut  the  cost  by  99%  of  all   li>ga>on  and  improve  “court  generated   delays”  by  99%   •  Strong  economic  drivers  for  digital  court   system  –  needs  early,  big  adopters   19  
  • 20. Interna>onally   •  US  unlikely  candidate  for  early  adop>on  –   Churchill  quote   •  Countries  that  want  to  rid  judicial  system  of   bribery,  delays,  no  access  to  jus>ce  will  be   early  adopters   •  Business  will  want  to  cut  the  cost  of  resolving   disputes  (ebay)   •  People  will  gain  power  and  vote  with  their   pocketbooks  (Amer  Arbitra>on)   20  
  • 21. Unstoppable  Ecosystem  Elements   •  99%  rule  –  do  it  99%  beier,  cheaper,  quicker   you  eventually  win  –  UBER,  AirBNB,   Cellphones,  Online  Airplane  Tickets   •  But  only  if  ecosystem  elements  have  the   power,  resources,  and  leadership  to  make  the   change   •  Ecosystem  Strengths  Analysis  suggests  in  this   situa>on  –  100%  digital  courts  to  rise  in  third   world  and  spread,  eventually  to  US   21  
  • 22. Conclusion   •  We  es>mate  one  year  and  X  dollars  to  build  prototype,  pilot  test,   and  be  ready  to  accept  cases  globally;  We  could  start  media>ons   sooner,  but  want  to  have  a  major  roll  out  when  we  start  and  be   able  to  protect  our  intellectual  property   •  We  can  begin  to  screen  and  cer>fy  “judges,”  mediators  and  part   >me  personnel  to  supervise  each  case,  provide  customer  service   •  We  can  build  a  global  network  as  the  founder,  Herb  Rubenstein,   teaches  at  the  Global  Energy  Management  Program  of  UC  Denver   •  We  can  find  local  country  partners  and  ways  to  sell  our  big  data   without  compromising  the  privacy  and  security  of  our  court  system   •  We  will  not  seek  adver>sing  revenue  in  our  business  model,  but  will   be  open  to  many  sources  of  revenue  where  we  create  value   22  
  • 23. Ecosystem  System  Suppor>ve  of  100%   Digital  Courts   •  The  hundreds  of  thousands  of  judges  and   mediators  who  will  be  hired  by  digital  court   system   •  The  technology  companies  that  will  be  the   backbone  (Verizon,  CISCO,  IBM,  etc.)   •  People  who  want  faster,  cheaper  dispute   resolu>on  and  jus>ce  (Think  of  El  Chapo  –   embed  him  with  a  computer  chip  and  you  can   track  him  leaving  the  prison!)   23  
  • 24. Ecosystem  Supporters  (Con’t)   •  Governments  who  want  to  end  bribery  in  their   court  systems  (very  few,  actually)   •  Companies  who  want  fair  and  resolu>on  of   interna>onal  disputes   •  Universi>es  to  train  the  judges  and  mediators  in   every  country  and  recer>fy  them   •  Human  Resource  Companies  like   PriceWaterHouse  Coopers  who  might  employ  the   hundreds  of  thousands  of  judges  and  mediators   24  
  • 25. Conclusion   •  Ideas  maier,  but  not  as  much  as  the  strength  of   ecosystems   •  Ecosystems  drive  what  changes  or  does  not   change   •  The  Futurist  Profession  should  pay  more   aien>on  to  ecosystem  strength  analysis  -­‐  “ESA”   •  Forthcoming  white  papers  and  more  detailed   explana>on  of  the  ESA.     •  Ques>ons  and  Comments   25  
  • 26. Contact  informa>on   •  Herb  Rubenstein   •  herb@sbizgroup.com   •  303.910.7961   •  347.916.1317   •  Member  DC,  MD  and  VA  Bar  Associa>ons;  New   York  City  Bar  Associa>on   •  Office:  255  Dean  Street,  Unit  1,  Brooklyn,  NY   11217   •  Skype  -­‐  herbrubensteinr   26