SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 87
Download to read offline
2022 - Mind Boggling
Questions
1
Presented by Bismarck Rewane
CEO, Financial Derivatives Company Ltd.
March 02, 2022
ÌbÊèrè ???
2
As if we didn’t have enough
problems, then comes
Ukraine/Russia
3
“Beware the Ides of March”
- Spurinna
“It seems to me most strange that men should fear,
seeing that death is a necessary end, which will
come when it will come”
- Julius Caesar
The 5 Questions
4
I s R u s s i a n - U k r a i n e C r i s i s a 3 r d W o r l d W a r ( N u c l e a r o r
C y b e r ) ?
I s N i g e r i a A p p r o a c h i n g a F i s c a l C l i f f o r I s I t A l l
E x a g g e r a t e d F e a r s ?
I n v e s t i n g i n a P r e - e l e c t i o n C l i m a t e – F i x e d I n c o m e ,
E q u i t i e s , R e a l E s t a t e o r B i t c o i n ?
O i l P r i c e D o w n , N a i r a D o w n ; O i l P r i c e U p , N a i r a
D o w n - I s t h e N a i r a D o o m e d ?
N i g e r i a n I n f l a t i o n S e t t o D e c l i n e – W h y A r e
C o n s u m e r s S t i l l i n T e a r s ?
5
Is the Russian Invasion of
Ukraine a 3rd World War?
Russia & Ukraine – Global Importance
6
īļ 3rd largest oil producer
īļ 17% of global gas
īļ Wheat & sugar behemoth
īļ Major producer of nickel, copper &
aluminum
Russiaâ€Ļ Ukraineâ€Ļ
īļ Breadbasket of Europe
īļ Top supplier of rye and barley across
Europe
īļ 9th biggest wheat producer
īļ 5th largest global corn supplier
īļ Supplies about 50% of global sunoil
Russian-Ukraine Crisis – 5 Dimensional Impact
7
Stranded
Nigerian
students
Global debt
and debt
service soar
Energy crisis
Oil, gas and
mineral
shortages
Commodities
market in
turmoil
Financial
markets
roiled by
SWIFT
5,000 Nigerian Students Stranded in Ukraine
Bilateral relationships with foreign educational and scientific
institutions
īļ National Technical University “Kharkiv
Polytechnic Institute”
īļ Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
īļ Ivan Franko National University of Lviv
īļ Sumy State University
Top Universities
īļ Medicine
īļ Engineering
īļ Aviation
Reputed
īļ Major setback for Nigerian students - STEM
Setbacks
8
Nigeria – Torn Between the Devil & the Deep Blue Sea
īļGlobal trade estimated at $5.3trn in 2022
īļNigeria’s international trade = $8.15bn
38
34.2
13.8
9.4
8.1
4.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
China India Indonesia US Spain Belgium
Nigeria's major trading partners (%)
Pro-Russia Anti-Russia
â€ĸ China
â€ĸ India
â€ĸ Brazil
â€ĸ UAE
â€ĸ US
â€ĸ EU
â€ĸ UK
â€ĸ Others
10
Energy Crisis – Brent at an 8-year High
īļ Brent crossed the $100pb benchmark – currently $118pb
īļ WTI trading at a record high of $110pb
īļ Natural gas price up 67% to $5/mmbtu YTD
īļ An incursion into Kyiv record global energy prices
īļ Russia exercised its veto power at the UN security meeting
īļ Vladimir Putin insists on attacking until Ukraine withdraws its intention of
joining the NATO
īļ Putin’s offense and premeditated approach sowing volatility
11
Commodities Market in Turmoil
īļ The grain markets are also affected by the lingering tensions
īļ High demand amid subpar supply
īļ Nigeria – a net importer of food - at the receiving end of the equation
īļ Domestic price of flour, animal feed, cereals and more to climb again
12
Wheat Corn
14.91% YTD 11.21% YTD
Financial Markets Roiled by SWIFT
īļ Russian Rouble tumbling as war on Ukraine persists
īļ The UK, US and EU have cut off Russian banks from the financial markets in
the west
īļ The banks are banned from using the Swift international payment system
īļ In response, the Bank of Russia increased its benchmark interest rate by
1,050bps to 20% from 9.5%
īļ “Russia is increasingly becoming an economic pariah, increasingly
isolated from the global financial system“ – Will Walker–Arnott
13
Financial Markets Roiled by SWIFT
14
īļAsset classes weathering an array of headwinds: geopolitical uncertainty,
high inflation, and elevated valuations
īļGeopolitical uncertainty bolstered investors appetite for safe haven assets
(gold)
īļNGX remains oblivious to the global crisis
3.8 4.35
-8.76 -8.23
10.4 10.95
-13.4
-6.53
-6.2 -6.8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Asset Classes Performance (%) in 2022
Gold S&P 500 NGX Bitcoin DJIA
During Crisis
Pre-Crisis
Debt Service Costs to Climb as Interest Rates Rise
īļ Global monetary policy authorities to embark on monetary policy
tightening spree
īļ US Fed to increase rates in March
īļ BoE signalling modest tightening
īļ Raised its key bank rate by 25bps to 0.5% at its February meeting
īļ Higher interest rates to push up debt service costs for emerging markets
and developing economies
15
Implications for Nigeria
Exports
16
Commodities Share of total
(%)
Oil 74.6
Gas 12.8
Others 12.6
Imports
Major imports
Sugar
Wheat
Rice
Aluminum
Terms of trade
Export
prices
Import
prices
>
īļ Nigeria will benefit from higher oil prices, but subsidy will be a major problem
īļ Fiscal gap will be funded through borrowing
īļ Debt service costs will increase as interest rates rise
18
Oil Price Up, Naira Down –
Is the Naira Doomed?
Oil Price , Naira ; Oil Price , Naira – Is the Naira Doomed?
īļ Answer – No
īļ Forex markets are volatile by nature
44
75.3 95.63
61
116
125
146
220
388.21
578
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Obasanjo Yar'Adua Goodluck Buhari 2022
Oil Price Vs Exchange Rate
Oil price ($pb) Exchange rate (N/$)
*oil prices increased at the tail end of Buhari’s tenure
19
Currency Depreciation is Not Nigeria Specific
īļ Despite economic reforms, currencies have shown extreme volatility
īļ Dollar is the most traded convertible currency
īļ 70-75% of all trade is done in dollars
10 years ago 5 years ago Current % Rate of
Depreciation
Nigerian Naira 161 363 578 +259.0
South African
Rand
8.47 12.36 15.36 +81.4
Ghanaian
Cedis
1.90 4.52 6.5 +242.1
Angolan
Kwanza
95.88 165.1 491.07 +412.2
20
Against Other Oil Producing Countries
īļ Some oil producers have stronger currencies
īļ Oil revenues were optimally, efficiently and prudently utilized
10 years ago 5 years ago Current % Rate of
Depreciation
Nigerian Naira 161 363 578 +259.0
Saudi Riyal 3.75 3.75 3.75 -
Kuwaiti Dinar 0.28 0.30 0.30 -
21
22
What Next for the Naira?
Recent Steps taken by the CBN to Defend the Naira
īļ Rebate – the silver bullet?
Inventory of Policies Level of success
N5 for every dollar scheme Low
Import restrictions Not sure
Scrapping of BDCs Not sure
N65 per dollar ??
Official rate (N/$) 416
Parallel market (N/$) 580
65
Rebate
+ = 481
=
N99/$
īļ Will exporters be willing to give up N99/$ out of patriotism? - NO
23
What Should the CBN Do?
īļ Will push the market towards equilibrium
Increase forex
supply and force
price down
significantly
Increase price to
its fair value and
boost forex
supply
24
Value of Transactions to Maintain Upward Trend in March
25
īļTotal value of transactions up 1.84% to N29.40trn in February 2022
īļ42.24% higher than N20.67trn in February 2021
īļNo seasonality effect among payment channels except cheques and NEFT
īļWe expect the upward trend to continue in March on inventories build-up
ahead of the Easter holiday
Channels Jan’21 (N’bn) Feb’21 (N’bn) Jan’22 (N’bn) Feb’22 (N’bn)
Cheques 248.2 277.45 237.26 259.81
POS 489.24 468.91 573.72 575.06
NIP 18,892.81 18,734.46 26,645.18 27,182.01
NEFT 1,374.06 1,194.08 1,415.74 1,385.89
Total 21,004.31 20,674.90 28,871.90 29,402.77
25
27
Is Nigeria Approaching a
Fiscal Cliff or Is It All
Exaggerated Fears?
Is Nigeria Approaching a Fiscal Cliff? Yes, But Not There Yet
īļ Nigeria’s debt ratios rising but still within the acceptable limit
īļ But total factor productivity is declining
īļ Increasing the risk of a debt cliff
12.2 12.8 12.6
16.2 16.5 16.7
-1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.9 1.4 0.7
61.5 58.6 62.5
119.8
106.3
90.2
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
5
10
15
20
'2017 '2018 '2019 '2020 '2021 '2022*
External Debt (%GDP) Total Factor Productivity (%) Debt/Export (%)
28
Nigeria’s Precarious Fiscal Position
29
Brent crossed
$100pb
Exchange rate
1.23% (N576/$)
Balance of trade
61.5%
Gross external
reserves 0.5%
Government debt
7.13%
Excess crude
account 98.57%
FAAC
17.8%
Oil production
6.06%
29
Delayed Reform –Fiscal Gap Widening
īļ President Buhari has submitted a N3trn supplementary budget to NASS
īļ To make additional provision for fuel subsidy (N2.557trn)
īļ Initial subsidy provision was N500bn
īļ Compared to an estimated annual subsidy payment of N3trn
īļ Creating a shortfall of N2.5trn, increasing fiscal deficit to N8.9trn
30
Provision for subsidy
in the 2022 budget
Estimated annual
subsidy payment
Shortfall
N500bn
N3trn
N2.5trn
Subsidy shortfall (N2.5trn)
+
Fiscal Deficit (N6.4trn)
=
39.06% Fiscal Deficit to N8.9trn
FG Scouting for Funds
īļ Government trying to raise revenue by
īļ Introducing taxes
īļ Sugar tax - A N10/liter excise duty on all carbonated, non-alcoholic
and sweetened beverages
īļ Digital tax – A 6% tax on turnover for non-resident e-commerce
businesses
īļ Removing tax shelter on government T/Bills and securities
īļ Will mostly affect the banks, pension funds & insurance
īļ Total tax shelter approximated at N200bn
31
Implications on Corporates, Investors and Consumers
Corporates
Implications
īļIncrease effective tax rate on companies’ income
īļSignificant reduction of affected companies profit after tax
īļCompanies affected include banks, insurance firms & PFAs
Investors
Consumers
īļA lower PAT implies a reduction in dividend payments
īļWill prompt rotation of portfolios from affected companies
īļLower investment and a fall in the national savings rate
īļMPS MPC
īļReduced consumption
32
Alternative Funding Options - Borrowing
33
Government
Borrowing
Domestic
Borrowing
Ways &
Means
Advances
Investors
Foreign
Borrowing
Commercial
loans
Multilateral
institutions
33
Alternative Funding Options - Borrowing
Domestic Borrowing Foreign Borrowing
īļ Concessionary debt structure is
more appropriate
īļWill improve the risk profile
īļRating improves
īļInterest rate hike in advanced
economies to increase debt
service burden
īļRelevance of timing of borrowing
īļWays and Means advances –
how sustainable?
īļDebt service costs to increase
as interest rates rise
34
Oil Price & Oil Revenue Paradox
īļ Rally in oil prices with no matching increase in government revenue
Pipeline
vandalism
and theft
The counter-
trade
transactions
Oil
production
sharing
contract
36
I s t h e D a n g o t e R e f i n ery N i g e ria's
H a i l M a r y P a s s ?
N o t C o m p l e t e l y T r u e !
37
Is Dangote Refinery: Nigeria's Hail Mary Pass?
īļLong petrol queues resurface
īļA nightmare no one wishes for
MC > MR = Negative Profit
īļDangote refinery to the rescue
īļPricing plays a major role
38
39
“ U n f o r t u n a t e l y , n o t a n y t i m e s o o n ”
When will the Nigerian
consumer smile?
Too Early to be Happy?
īļ Fall in food prices is sadly temporary
īļ Living costs are climbing
īļ Domestic airfares up by 100% - new price floor set at N50,000
īļ On higher jet fuel prices, spare part imports and forex scarcity
īļ A Lagos – Abuja return ticket now selling for over N100,000
īļ Rent payments up by an average of 20% as landlords discount for inflation
īļ Electricity costs also high
40
“ P e r h a p s i t s s t i l l t o o e a r l y t o b e
h a p p y ”
Inflation Biting Deep into People’s Pockets
īļ Headline inflation still high at 15.6%
īļ 6.6% above the CBN’s target ceiling of 9% and growth retarding
īļ Disposable income bleeding profusely
īļ If you’ve been earning N200,000 as a monthly income – here’s what
inflation has done to your money
41
2019 2022
Inflation rate (%) 11.98 15.60
Real income (N) 176,040 168,800
The value of your N200,000 has fallen by 4.1% in the last 3 years, meanwhile costs keep climbing
Exchange
rate pass
through effect
Insecurity
Logistics
costs and
supply chain
disruptions
Higher
energy
costs (PMS,
diesel &
electricity)
Money
supply
saturation
Will the Cycle Ever End?
īļ In the meantime, inflationary pressures will persist
īļ So the loop continues, till the CBN fully resumes its
primary function of price stability
42
Planting
season
Consumer Response
īļ Consumers to keep rationing income to prioritize necessities
īļ No incentive to save
īļ Stalling behaviour from FG in addressing harsh living conditions could:
īļ Trigger public unrest
īļ Increase the rate of emigration
īļ Worsen crime rate/cybercrime
43
45
CBN’s Unorthodox Policy
– How Sustainable?
Monetary – CBN Targets $200bn Non-oil Revenue in
3 Years
īļCBN targets $200bn non-oil revenue in the next 3 to 5 years
īļTo boost forex supply and address currency pressures
īļThis is equivalent to an annual increase of $70bn (17.5% increase in GDP)
īļExport earnings currently at $50.5bn
īļOf which crude oil accounts for 74.6% and gas accounts for 12.8%
īļNon-oil export earnings is currently 12.6% = $6.4bn
Y = C + I + G + NX
$465.1bn $303.0bn $147.1bn $41.3bn -$29.9bn
46
The MPC’s Next Move?
īļ Next MPC meeting scheduled for March 22/23
īļ Major considerations would be:
īļ Inflation: 15.6% (Jan’22)
īļ Growth: 3.98% (Q4’21)
īļ Exchange rate pressure (Parallel: N576/$, IEFX: N416/$)
īļNext move:
47
īļ Status quo 11.5% (probability 55%)
īļ To keep stimulating growth at the expense
of rising inflation
īļ A huge disincentive to investment inflows
īļRate hike to 13.5% (probability 45%)
īļTo taper inflation
īļIn tandem with the global trend
48
Investing in a Pre-election
Climate – Equities, Real
Estate or Bitcoin?
49
Investment in a Pre-election Yearâ€ĻEquites/Real Estate?
Nigerian Equities Real Estate
Bitcoin
Dollar Investments –
US Equities
10.95%
17.1%
16.9%
8.00%
Global Fund Managers In 2022
īļGlobal fund managers confronting an array of headwinds: high
inflation, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and elevated valuations
īļIndustry players are mitigating the impact through strategic
diversification, mergers and acquisitions and robust financing
īļIncreasing capital flight from Russian investments to other emerging
markets
īļIndustry players are buying into growth opportunities in private markets
and ESG funds (environmental, social and governance)
50
If You Invested N10mnâ€Ļ.2021 vs 2022 Returns
Investment Securities 2021 Return Investors’
Return
2022 –YTD
Return
Investors’
Return
US equities (S&P 500) 26.9% N2,690,000 8.00% - N800,000
Nigerian equities 6.07% N607,000 10.95% N 1,095,000
Avg. NTB (364 days) 7% N 700,000 5% N500,000
Real Estate 15% N1,500,000 16.9% N1,690,000
Bitcoin 59.7% N5,970,000 17.1% - N1,710,000
īļUncertainty characterized by the geopolitical war coupled with
forthcoming interest rate hikes will dampen the investment climate
īļBitcoin – best performing asset class in 2021 but unimpressive in 2022
īļInvestors to remain cautious among risky assets
51
NGX Indices in February
īļ NGX ASI gained 1.65% in February
īļ All indices in green territory
īļ Reflecting investors renewed interest for
Nigerian equities market
īļ Underpinned by impressive corporate
earnings
īļ Investors rotate their funds as fixed
income yields slide
īļ Rising oil prices spur gains in the oil and
gas industry
7.76%
2.32%
2.82%
2.76%
2.53%
1.65%
Oil & Gas
Consumer Goods
Industrials
Banking
Insurance
NGX ASI
February
52
Invest in Equities or Not?
54
īļEquities to remain popular amongst investors as yields in the fixed income
space declines and inflation continues its upward trend
īļ Investors to buy into fundamentally strong stocks with attractive valuations in
a post-election year
īļOil & gas sector to continue its gaining streak, which will be bolstered by
soaring oil prices
īļFX availability to improve cost margins of sensitive sectors
īļStock market sensitive to economic and political vulnerabilities
īļIncreased cost of borrowing will further reduce profitability
īļBanking stocks to gather weak sentiment driven by the elimination of tax
shelter
īļReduced profitability likely to hurt dividend pay-outs
55
Corporate Earnings
Zenith Bank- FY’2021 Earnings
īļ Zenith bank resilient despite a wobbly year
īļ Gross earnings up 10% to N765.6bn
īļ Underpinned by a 7% growth in net interest income to N320.8bn
īļ Attributable to loan growth
īļ Non-interest income increased by 23% to N309bn
īļ Bottom line grew by 6% to N244.6bn
īļ Supported by the reduction in interest expense and growth in
non-interest income
56
Zenith Bank- FY’2021 Earnings
īļ Total assets up 11% to N9.45trn
īļ Total customer deposit up 21% to N6.42trn (increased
customer base)
īļ Investors set to enjoy mouth-watering final dividends
īļ Dividend up 3.7% to N2.8 (N2.7 in Dec 2020)
īļ NPL ratio declined by 2% to 4.19% (4.29% in Dec 2020)
īļ Liquidity (71.6%) and capital adequacy (21%) ratios remain
above regulatory thresholds
57
Elimination of Tax Shelter-Impact on Earnings and Dividend
īļBanking sector pays an average
effective tax rate of 12% relative to
a nominal tax rate of 30%
īļBut effective tax rate expected to
surge due to tax shelter removal on
FGN securities
īļDividend payment and share price
will be negatively impacted as
profitability shrinks
īļInvestors will likely reposition and
hunt after attractive sectors
Zenith Bank 2020 2021
2022*
(based on
new tax
policy)
PBT (N’bn) 255.9 280.4 280.4
Tax Paid
(N’bn)
25.3 35.8 84.12
Effective Tax
Rate
10% 12.8% 30%
PAT (N’bn) 230.6 244.6 196.28
DPS(N) 3 3.1 2.6
Dividend
Yield
12.1% 0.2% to
12.3%
2.7% to
9.6%
58
Real Estate Update
īļ Annual GDP growth positive at 2.26%
īļ On increased investor confidence despite low consumer purchasing
power
īļ When inflation climbs, investments in housing and landed properties rise
īļ In a bid to hedge against inflation and garner reasonable yields
īļ But housing deficit still high at 22 million as affordable housing stays scarce
īļ Likely CBN intervention in housing sector to boost growth
īļ Demand for yield by investors amid short supply of real estate to drive
sector activities in the near term
59
In the Endâ€Ļ
īļ Investors should diversify their portfolio – depending on your risk appetite
īļ Real estate, equities and fixed income securities are more stable
options
īļ Compared to cryptocurrencies, due to high volatility in the global
markets
60
62
Aviation Update
Aviation - Global Update
īļThe aviation industry was already on the mend in Q4’2021
īļMost carriers were already projecting to reach the pre-pandemic load factors
by 2023
īļSingapore Airlines, the gold standard of aviation, reported a sharp
improvement in its earnings, load factor and yield in December 2021
īļNet profit stood at $62.8mn, its first positive earning since the pandemic
īļThe Star Alliance, Lufthansa, Brussels and Swiss, all reported superior
performance in Q4’2021
īļLufthansa recorded an EBIT of $19mn, for the first time since the pandemic
63
Aviation - Global Update
īļHeathrow - the world’s 3rd busiest international airport - showing a slight
resurgence with passenger traffic reaching 2.6mn in January
īļThis is 300% higher than January 2021
īļAfter 2 years of lower passenger traffic, with decline peaking at over 300%
to 19.39mn in 2021, Heathrow expects to return to profitability in 2022
īļThe UK has stopped all COVID-19 restrictions for visiting passengers
īļThe US is also following suit in dismantling COVID-19 restrictions for
vaccinated and boosted passengers
64
Aviation - Global Update
īļEasing restrictions are expected to support the recovery momentum
of the global aviation industry
īļIn Q3’21, the industry-wide operating loss was 2.6% of revenues
compared to 13.6% over the April-June period.
īļThere continues to be renewed optimism about recovery
īļHowever, rebound not likely to be broad-based across all
markets
īļMeanwhile, several airlines have halted flights to Ukraine amid the
Russian invasion
65
Domestic Travel Update
īļPositive 19.70% growth in 2021 compared to -36.98% contraction in
2020
īļOn high demand mainly driven by sustained insecurity –
kidnappings
īļDomestic airfares to increased by 100% amid forex scarcity and rising
cost of aviation fuel
īļNew United Nigeria Airlines and Air Peace partnership to advance
capacity of airlines
66
Domestic VS International airfares
īļDomestic airfares rising at a faster pace than international airfares
īļThe price of a flight from Lagos to Abuja has increased more than a Lagos
to London flight
58261
411,562
105500
422,158
Feb'21
Feb'22
VS
LOS to ABJ LOS to LHR
81% 2.6%
īļ The IATA rate of exchange has been
stable at N444/$, indicating steady
forex supply by the CBN to the airlines
67
Domestic Travel Update
īļNigerian passengers flying to the UK without a valid Schengen visa not
eligible to travel with European airlines
īļIn the interim, this is likely to spur an uptick in demand for British Airways flights
to the UK
īļIt will also create additional market for key regional players like Kenya and
Ethiopian airways
īļEmirates airlines has resumed flights to and from Nigeria
īļ7 out of Abuja and 14 out of Lagos
īļThe resumption of Emirates Airlines flights in Nigeria means a disruption to
Qatar Airways’ “monopoly”
68
68
Domestic Travel Update
īļAir Peace is helping bring passengers back from Ukraine
īļMeanwhile, domestic tickets remain high as airlines continue to record full
board
īļThis is driven mainly by insecurity
69
69
71
The Race Begins!!!
Political Update- 350 Days to Go!
īļPresident has signed the
Electoral Act
īļFeb 25th 2023 is the Presidential
Election Day
īļWhat are your predictions?
The process is just as important as the outcome
72
A 3-Way Horse Race
vs vs
Capacity, Competence, Charisma: the 3 Cs
The 3 Ws: Battle of Wits, Wants & Wallets
73
The Political Race Begins- An All Comers Game
Timeline:
Conventions
Elections
Campaigns
Primaries
The race begins February 25, 2022
THE CONTESTANTS
Front
Runners
Dreamers
Political
Mercenaries
Sure
Bankers
Dark Horse
74
Players to Watch- many are called but few are chosen
Rotimi
Amaechi
Godswill
Akpabio
Nyesom
Wike
Yemi
Osinbajo
Kayode
Fayemi
Bola
Tinubu
Muhammed
Hayatu-deen
Atiku
Abubakar
Bala
Mohammed
Aminu
Tambuwal
Bukola Saraki
75
Political Levers of Control
Security
Agencies
Influencers
and
Celebrities
Social
media
Corporate
Nigeria
International
Financial
Community
Mainstream
Media
Retired
Generals
Crime
Syndicates Incumbent
Administrations
Judges
and
Judiciary
76
77
What Next??
E x p e c t a t i o n , A n t i c i p a t i o n & B r e a t h - H o l d i n g
Data Release Calendar
īļ OPEC meeting – March 2
īļ US Fed meeting – March 15/16
īļ February inflation – March 15
īļ MPC meeting – March 22/23
78
What Next?
īļ GDP growth to remain mildly positive as base effect wanes
īļ Official headline inflation will fall in February (15.4%) before picking up
more rapidly to 15.6% in March
īļ Food and energy prices will remain high, further eroding consumer
disposable income
īļ Fuel scarcity could linger as Russia-Ukraine tensions delay PMS imports
īļ Exchange rate pressures to persist at both parallel and IEFX markets
īļ Rising oil prices to mildly support external reserves accretion
īļ And boost the CBN’s forex intervention efforts
79
What Next?
īļNon-oil exports’ contribution to forex revenue will be flat
īļN65/$ rebate will be mostly ignored
īļForce majeures and oil bunkering will increase at the expense of the FGN
īļStock market performance could be bullish as yields on fixed income
instruments remain low
īļDomestic investors will keep their eyes on corporate earnings
īļInternational investors will be more focused on the electoral risks
80
What Next?
īļCBN will maintain status quo but will commence mopping up liquidity
īļAfter the convention this month, the APC will splinter
īļThe PDP will be embroiled in a zoning squabble
īļThis is the long awaited dance- Azikiwe
81
Corporate Humour
Swearing is a compromise between running away and fighting.
– Finley Peter Dunne
82
I would rather have an inferiority complex and be pleasantly surprised
than have a superiority complex and be rudely awakened
– Vanna Bonta
A prisoner of war is a man who tries to kill you and fails, and
then begs you not to kill him.
– Winston Churchill
Corporate Humour
One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end
up being governed by your inferiors.
– Plato
83
A committee is a group of the unwilling, picked from the unfit to do the
unnecessary
– Richard Harness
Love is like wine; To sip is fine, but to empty the bottle is a
headache.
– Julio Iglesias
Corporate Humour
A woman’s mind is cleaner than a man’s. She changes it more often.
– Oliver Herford
84
Men should be like Kleenex soft, strong and disposable.
– Cher
I am a marvellous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man, I keep
his house.
– Zsa Zsa Gabor
Corporate Humour
After marriage, husband and wife become two sides of a coin, they
just can’t face each other, but still they stay together
– Hemant Joshi
85
A husband is what is left of the lover after the nerve is extracted.
– Helen Rowland
86
Bismarck J. Rewane, MD/CEO
Financial Derivatives Company Ltd.
Lagos, Nigeria
01-6320213
© 2022. “This publication is for private circulation only. Any other use or publication without the prior express consent of Financial Derivatives Company
Limited is prohibited.”

More Related Content

What's hot

Forex and comex report 7 june 16
Forex and comex report 7 june 16Forex and comex report 7 june 16
Forex and comex report 7 june 16vanessa semos
 
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
 
Effects of Decreased Oil Price- Final Report
Effects of Decreased Oil Price- Final ReportEffects of Decreased Oil Price- Final Report
Effects of Decreased Oil Price- Final ReportMayomikun Okunola
 
Study: Failures of Socialism - Venezuela
Study: Failures of Socialism - VenezuelaStudy: Failures of Socialism - Venezuela
Study: Failures of Socialism - Venezuelapaul young cpa, cga
 
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
 
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2EY
 
Devaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World Economy
Devaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World EconomyDevaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World Economy
Devaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World EconomyRushita Thakkar
 
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlookEY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlookEY
 
How is Socialism has failed Venezuela
How is Socialism has failed Venezuela How is Socialism has failed Venezuela
How is Socialism has failed Venezuela paul young cpa, cga
 
5 worst possible scenarios (2022)
5 worst possible scenarios (2022)5 worst possible scenarios (2022)
5 worst possible scenarios (2022)Kobsak Pootrakool
 
2014 Review and 2015 Outlook
2014 Review and 2015 Outlook2014 Review and 2015 Outlook
2014 Review and 2015 OutlookAjibola Alfred
 
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
 
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
 
Nigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_web
Nigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_webNigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_web
Nigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_webPatrick Rankowitz
 

What's hot (20)

Forex and comex report 7 june 16
Forex and comex report 7 june 16Forex and comex report 7 june 16
Forex and comex report 7 june 16
 
October LBS 2015
October LBS 2015October LBS 2015
October LBS 2015
 
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3
 
Commodity report Ways2Capital 10 june 2015
Commodity report Ways2Capital 10 june 2015 Commodity report Ways2Capital 10 june 2015
Commodity report Ways2Capital 10 june 2015
 
Effects of Decreased Oil Price- Final Report
Effects of Decreased Oil Price- Final ReportEffects of Decreased Oil Price- Final Report
Effects of Decreased Oil Price- Final Report
 
Study: Failures of Socialism - Venezuela
Study: Failures of Socialism - VenezuelaStudy: Failures of Socialism - Venezuela
Study: Failures of Socialism - Venezuela
 
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021
 
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2
 
Devaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World Economy
Devaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World EconomyDevaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World Economy
Devaluation of Crude Oil and its Impact on World Economy
 
Commodity report 01 june 2015 Ways2Capital
Commodity report 01 june 2015 Ways2CapitalCommodity report 01 june 2015 Ways2Capital
Commodity report 01 june 2015 Ways2Capital
 
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlookEY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook
 
Commodity Research Report 19 June 2017 Ways2Capital
Commodity Research Report 19 June 2017 Ways2CapitalCommodity Research Report 19 June 2017 Ways2Capital
Commodity Research Report 19 June 2017 Ways2Capital
 
Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014
Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014
Commodity report Ways2Capital 12 nov 2014
 
How is Socialism has failed Venezuela
How is Socialism has failed Venezuela How is Socialism has failed Venezuela
How is Socialism has failed Venezuela
 
5 worst possible scenarios (2022)
5 worst possible scenarios (2022)5 worst possible scenarios (2022)
5 worst possible scenarios (2022)
 
2014 Review and 2015 Outlook
2014 Review and 2015 Outlook2014 Review and 2015 Outlook
2014 Review and 2015 Outlook
 
Cheap Oil and Gas, Employment and OFWs
Cheap Oil and Gas, Employment and OFWsCheap Oil and Gas, Employment and OFWs
Cheap Oil and Gas, Employment and OFWs
 
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
 
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319
 
Nigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_web
Nigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_webNigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_web
Nigeria_s_Oil_Revenue_Crunch_web
 

Similar to Lbs march-2022

LBS April Presentation
LBS April PresentationLBS April Presentation
LBS April PresentationAda Akonobi
 
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC)
 
Cdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_update
Cdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_updateCdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_update
Cdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_updatesenjbine
 
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC)
 
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 Crisis
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisThe Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 Crisis
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisEdouardLotz
 
Robert Powell @ OMD Predicts
Robert Powell @ OMD PredictsRobert Powell @ OMD Predicts
Robert Powell @ OMD PredictsOMD Digital
 
Petroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerable
Petroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerablePetroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerable
Petroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerableNelson Hernandez
 
EY Price Point Q3 2022
EY Price Point Q3 2022EY Price Point Q3 2022
EY Price Point Q3 2022EY
 
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
 
The Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
The Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundThe Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
The Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
 
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook PresentationCharis Whitbourne
 
brics monetary_policy_presentation
brics monetary_policy_presentationbrics monetary_policy_presentation
brics monetary_policy_presentationSwati Tyagi
 
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...Tristan Wiggill
 
Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...
Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...
Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...Executive Leaders Network
 
5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)
5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)
5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)Kobsak
 

Similar to Lbs march-2022 (20)

LBS July 2016
LBS July 2016LBS July 2016
LBS July 2016
 
LBS April Presentation
LBS April PresentationLBS April Presentation
LBS April Presentation
 
LBS April Presentation
LBS April PresentationLBS April Presentation
LBS April Presentation
 
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...
 
Cdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_update
Cdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_updateCdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_update
Cdl customer interactive_session_nigeria_2013_macroeconomic_update
 
LBS February 2017
LBS February 2017LBS February 2017
LBS February 2017
 
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
 
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 Crisis
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisThe Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 Crisis
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 Crisis
 
Robert Powell @ OMD Predicts
Robert Powell @ OMD PredictsRobert Powell @ OMD Predicts
Robert Powell @ OMD Predicts
 
Petroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerable
Petroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerablePetroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerable
Petroleo a 60 $, quien es el mas vulnerable
 
EY Price Point Q3 2022
EY Price Point Q3 2022EY Price Point Q3 2022
EY Price Point Q3 2022
 
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
 
The Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
The Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual FundThe Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
The Prudent Factsheet | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
 
LBS presentation by FDC - November 2015
LBS presentation by FDC - November 2015LBS presentation by FDC - November 2015
LBS presentation by FDC - November 2015
 
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
 
brics monetary_policy_presentation
brics monetary_policy_presentationbrics monetary_policy_presentation
brics monetary_policy_presentation
 
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...
 
Adroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 Update
Adroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 UpdateAdroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 Update
Adroit PMS Investment Strategy - April 2020 Update
 
Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...
Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...
Building a Resilient Finance Function for 2023 and Beyond (Tommaso Aquilante ...
 
5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)
5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)
5 Worst Possible Scenarios (2022)
 

Recently uploaded

20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf
20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf
20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdfAdnet Communications
 
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxOAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxhiddenlevers
 
AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...
AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...
AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...yordanosyohannes2
 
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview documentHouse of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview documentHenry Tapper
 
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170Sonam Pathan
 
BPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdf
BPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdfBPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdf
BPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdfHenry Tapper
 
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of ReportingHow Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of ReportingAggregage
 
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170Sonam Pathan
 
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130  Available With RoomVIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130  Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130 Available With Roomdivyansh0kumar0
 
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net Worth
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net WorthUnveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net Worth
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net WorthShaheen Kumar
 
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdffca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdfHenry Tapper
 
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results PresentationBladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results PresentationBladex
 
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130  Available With RoomVIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130  Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130 Available With Roomdivyansh0kumar0
 
Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024
Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024
Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024Bladex
 
(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一
(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一
(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一S SDS
 
Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...
Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...
Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...First NO1 World Amil baba in Faisalabad
 
īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办
īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办
īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办fqiuho152
 
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdfgovernment_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdfshaunmashale756
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economiccinemoviesu
 

Recently uploaded (20)

20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf
20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf
20240417-Calibre-April-2024-Investor-Presentation.pdf
 
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptxOAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep19 WeighingTheRisks_Apr24_TheYellowMetal.pptx
 
AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...
AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...
AfRESFullPaper22018EmpiricalPerformanceofRealEstateInvestmentTrustsandShareho...
 
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview documentHouse of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
House of Commons ; CDC schemes overview document
 
🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road
🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road
🔝+919953056974 🔝young Delhi Escort service Pusa Road
 
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
Call Girls Near Golden Tulip Essential Hotel, New Delhi 9873777170
 
BPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdf
BPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdfBPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdf
BPPG response - Options for Defined Benefit schemes - 19Apr24.pdf
 
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of ReportingHow Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
How Automation is Driving Efficiency Through the Last Mile of Reporting
 
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
Call Girls Near Delhi Pride Hotel, New Delhi|9873777170
 
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130  Available With RoomVIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130  Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Serampore 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
 
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net Worth
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net WorthUnveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net Worth
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net Worth
 
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdffca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
 
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results PresentationBladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
Bladex 1Q24 Earning Results Presentation
 
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130  Available With RoomVIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130  Available With Room
VIP Kolkata Call Girl Jodhpur Park 👉 8250192130 Available With Room
 
Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024
Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024
Bladex Earnings Call Presentation 1Q2024
 
(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一
(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一
(办į†å­ĻäŊč¯)加æ‹ŋå¤§č¨įœå¤§å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯æˆįģŠå•åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ¯”一
 
Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...
Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...
Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Pakistan Authentic No 1 Amil Baba In Karachi No 1...
 
īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办
īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办
īŧˆåŠžį†åŽŸį‰ˆä¸€æ ˇīŧ‰QUTæ¯•ä¸šč¯æ˜†åŖĢ兰į§‘技大å­Ļæ¯•ä¸šč¯å­ĻäŊč¯į•™äŋĄå­ĻåŽ†čŽ¤č¯æˆįģŠå•čĄĨ办
 
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdfgovernment_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
government_intervention_in_business_ownership[1].pdf
 
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of EconomicTenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
Tenets of Physiocracy History of Economic
 

Lbs march-2022

  • 1. 2022 - Mind Boggling Questions 1 Presented by Bismarck Rewane CEO, Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. March 02, 2022 ÌbÊèrè ???
  • 2. 2 As if we didn’t have enough problems, then comes Ukraine/Russia
  • 3. 3 “Beware the Ides of March” - Spurinna “It seems to me most strange that men should fear, seeing that death is a necessary end, which will come when it will come” - Julius Caesar
  • 4. The 5 Questions 4 I s R u s s i a n - U k r a i n e C r i s i s a 3 r d W o r l d W a r ( N u c l e a r o r C y b e r ) ? I s N i g e r i a A p p r o a c h i n g a F i s c a l C l i f f o r I s I t A l l E x a g g e r a t e d F e a r s ? I n v e s t i n g i n a P r e - e l e c t i o n C l i m a t e – F i x e d I n c o m e , E q u i t i e s , R e a l E s t a t e o r B i t c o i n ? O i l P r i c e D o w n , N a i r a D o w n ; O i l P r i c e U p , N a i r a D o w n - I s t h e N a i r a D o o m e d ? N i g e r i a n I n f l a t i o n S e t t o D e c l i n e – W h y A r e C o n s u m e r s S t i l l i n T e a r s ?
  • 5. 5 Is the Russian Invasion of Ukraine a 3rd World War?
  • 6. Russia & Ukraine – Global Importance 6 īļ 3rd largest oil producer īļ 17% of global gas īļ Wheat & sugar behemoth īļ Major producer of nickel, copper & aluminum Russiaâ€Ļ Ukraineâ€Ļ īļ Breadbasket of Europe īļ Top supplier of rye and barley across Europe īļ 9th biggest wheat producer īļ 5th largest global corn supplier īļ Supplies about 50% of global sunoil
  • 7. Russian-Ukraine Crisis – 5 Dimensional Impact 7 Stranded Nigerian students Global debt and debt service soar Energy crisis Oil, gas and mineral shortages Commodities market in turmoil Financial markets roiled by SWIFT
  • 8. 5,000 Nigerian Students Stranded in Ukraine Bilateral relationships with foreign educational and scientific institutions īļ National Technical University “Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute” īļ Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv īļ Ivan Franko National University of Lviv īļ Sumy State University Top Universities īļ Medicine īļ Engineering īļ Aviation Reputed īļ Major setback for Nigerian students - STEM Setbacks 8
  • 9.
  • 10. Nigeria – Torn Between the Devil & the Deep Blue Sea īļGlobal trade estimated at $5.3trn in 2022 īļNigeria’s international trade = $8.15bn 38 34.2 13.8 9.4 8.1 4.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 China India Indonesia US Spain Belgium Nigeria's major trading partners (%) Pro-Russia Anti-Russia â€ĸ China â€ĸ India â€ĸ Brazil â€ĸ UAE â€ĸ US â€ĸ EU â€ĸ UK â€ĸ Others 10
  • 11. Energy Crisis – Brent at an 8-year High īļ Brent crossed the $100pb benchmark – currently $118pb īļ WTI trading at a record high of $110pb īļ Natural gas price up 67% to $5/mmbtu YTD īļ An incursion into Kyiv record global energy prices īļ Russia exercised its veto power at the UN security meeting īļ Vladimir Putin insists on attacking until Ukraine withdraws its intention of joining the NATO īļ Putin’s offense and premeditated approach sowing volatility 11
  • 12. Commodities Market in Turmoil īļ The grain markets are also affected by the lingering tensions īļ High demand amid subpar supply īļ Nigeria – a net importer of food - at the receiving end of the equation īļ Domestic price of flour, animal feed, cereals and more to climb again 12 Wheat Corn 14.91% YTD 11.21% YTD
  • 13. Financial Markets Roiled by SWIFT īļ Russian Rouble tumbling as war on Ukraine persists īļ The UK, US and EU have cut off Russian banks from the financial markets in the west īļ The banks are banned from using the Swift international payment system īļ In response, the Bank of Russia increased its benchmark interest rate by 1,050bps to 20% from 9.5% īļ “Russia is increasingly becoming an economic pariah, increasingly isolated from the global financial system“ – Will Walker–Arnott 13
  • 14. Financial Markets Roiled by SWIFT 14 īļAsset classes weathering an array of headwinds: geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation, and elevated valuations īļGeopolitical uncertainty bolstered investors appetite for safe haven assets (gold) īļNGX remains oblivious to the global crisis 3.8 4.35 -8.76 -8.23 10.4 10.95 -13.4 -6.53 -6.2 -6.8 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Asset Classes Performance (%) in 2022 Gold S&P 500 NGX Bitcoin DJIA During Crisis Pre-Crisis
  • 15. Debt Service Costs to Climb as Interest Rates Rise īļ Global monetary policy authorities to embark on monetary policy tightening spree īļ US Fed to increase rates in March īļ BoE signalling modest tightening īļ Raised its key bank rate by 25bps to 0.5% at its February meeting īļ Higher interest rates to push up debt service costs for emerging markets and developing economies 15
  • 16. Implications for Nigeria Exports 16 Commodities Share of total (%) Oil 74.6 Gas 12.8 Others 12.6 Imports Major imports Sugar Wheat Rice Aluminum Terms of trade Export prices Import prices > īļ Nigeria will benefit from higher oil prices, but subsidy will be a major problem īļ Fiscal gap will be funded through borrowing īļ Debt service costs will increase as interest rates rise
  • 17.
  • 18. 18 Oil Price Up, Naira Down – Is the Naira Doomed?
  • 19. Oil Price , Naira ; Oil Price , Naira – Is the Naira Doomed? īļ Answer – No īļ Forex markets are volatile by nature 44 75.3 95.63 61 116 125 146 220 388.21 578 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Obasanjo Yar'Adua Goodluck Buhari 2022 Oil Price Vs Exchange Rate Oil price ($pb) Exchange rate (N/$) *oil prices increased at the tail end of Buhari’s tenure 19
  • 20. Currency Depreciation is Not Nigeria Specific īļ Despite economic reforms, currencies have shown extreme volatility īļ Dollar is the most traded convertible currency īļ 70-75% of all trade is done in dollars 10 years ago 5 years ago Current % Rate of Depreciation Nigerian Naira 161 363 578 +259.0 South African Rand 8.47 12.36 15.36 +81.4 Ghanaian Cedis 1.90 4.52 6.5 +242.1 Angolan Kwanza 95.88 165.1 491.07 +412.2 20
  • 21. Against Other Oil Producing Countries īļ Some oil producers have stronger currencies īļ Oil revenues were optimally, efficiently and prudently utilized 10 years ago 5 years ago Current % Rate of Depreciation Nigerian Naira 161 363 578 +259.0 Saudi Riyal 3.75 3.75 3.75 - Kuwaiti Dinar 0.28 0.30 0.30 - 21
  • 22. 22 What Next for the Naira?
  • 23. Recent Steps taken by the CBN to Defend the Naira īļ Rebate – the silver bullet? Inventory of Policies Level of success N5 for every dollar scheme Low Import restrictions Not sure Scrapping of BDCs Not sure N65 per dollar ?? Official rate (N/$) 416 Parallel market (N/$) 580 65 Rebate + = 481 = N99/$ īļ Will exporters be willing to give up N99/$ out of patriotism? - NO 23
  • 24. What Should the CBN Do? īļ Will push the market towards equilibrium Increase forex supply and force price down significantly Increase price to its fair value and boost forex supply 24
  • 25. Value of Transactions to Maintain Upward Trend in March 25 īļTotal value of transactions up 1.84% to N29.40trn in February 2022 īļ42.24% higher than N20.67trn in February 2021 īļNo seasonality effect among payment channels except cheques and NEFT īļWe expect the upward trend to continue in March on inventories build-up ahead of the Easter holiday Channels Jan’21 (N’bn) Feb’21 (N’bn) Jan’22 (N’bn) Feb’22 (N’bn) Cheques 248.2 277.45 237.26 259.81 POS 489.24 468.91 573.72 575.06 NIP 18,892.81 18,734.46 26,645.18 27,182.01 NEFT 1,374.06 1,194.08 1,415.74 1,385.89 Total 21,004.31 20,674.90 28,871.90 29,402.77 25
  • 26.
  • 27. 27 Is Nigeria Approaching a Fiscal Cliff or Is It All Exaggerated Fears?
  • 28. Is Nigeria Approaching a Fiscal Cliff? Yes, But Not There Yet īļ Nigeria’s debt ratios rising but still within the acceptable limit īļ But total factor productivity is declining īļ Increasing the risk of a debt cliff 12.2 12.8 12.6 16.2 16.5 16.7 -1.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.9 1.4 0.7 61.5 58.6 62.5 119.8 106.3 90.2 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 5 10 15 20 '2017 '2018 '2019 '2020 '2021 '2022* External Debt (%GDP) Total Factor Productivity (%) Debt/Export (%) 28
  • 29. Nigeria’s Precarious Fiscal Position 29 Brent crossed $100pb Exchange rate 1.23% (N576/$) Balance of trade 61.5% Gross external reserves 0.5% Government debt 7.13% Excess crude account 98.57% FAAC 17.8% Oil production 6.06% 29
  • 30. Delayed Reform –Fiscal Gap Widening īļ President Buhari has submitted a N3trn supplementary budget to NASS īļ To make additional provision for fuel subsidy (N2.557trn) īļ Initial subsidy provision was N500bn īļ Compared to an estimated annual subsidy payment of N3trn īļ Creating a shortfall of N2.5trn, increasing fiscal deficit to N8.9trn 30 Provision for subsidy in the 2022 budget Estimated annual subsidy payment Shortfall N500bn N3trn N2.5trn Subsidy shortfall (N2.5trn) + Fiscal Deficit (N6.4trn) = 39.06% Fiscal Deficit to N8.9trn
  • 31. FG Scouting for Funds īļ Government trying to raise revenue by īļ Introducing taxes īļ Sugar tax - A N10/liter excise duty on all carbonated, non-alcoholic and sweetened beverages īļ Digital tax – A 6% tax on turnover for non-resident e-commerce businesses īļ Removing tax shelter on government T/Bills and securities īļ Will mostly affect the banks, pension funds & insurance īļ Total tax shelter approximated at N200bn 31
  • 32. Implications on Corporates, Investors and Consumers Corporates Implications īļIncrease effective tax rate on companies’ income īļSignificant reduction of affected companies profit after tax īļCompanies affected include banks, insurance firms & PFAs Investors Consumers īļA lower PAT implies a reduction in dividend payments īļWill prompt rotation of portfolios from affected companies īļLower investment and a fall in the national savings rate īļMPS MPC īļReduced consumption 32
  • 33. Alternative Funding Options - Borrowing 33 Government Borrowing Domestic Borrowing Ways & Means Advances Investors Foreign Borrowing Commercial loans Multilateral institutions 33
  • 34. Alternative Funding Options - Borrowing Domestic Borrowing Foreign Borrowing īļ Concessionary debt structure is more appropriate īļWill improve the risk profile īļRating improves īļInterest rate hike in advanced economies to increase debt service burden īļRelevance of timing of borrowing īļWays and Means advances – how sustainable? īļDebt service costs to increase as interest rates rise 34
  • 35.
  • 36. Oil Price & Oil Revenue Paradox īļ Rally in oil prices with no matching increase in government revenue Pipeline vandalism and theft The counter- trade transactions Oil production sharing contract 36
  • 37. I s t h e D a n g o t e R e f i n ery N i g e ria's H a i l M a r y P a s s ? N o t C o m p l e t e l y T r u e ! 37
  • 38. Is Dangote Refinery: Nigeria's Hail Mary Pass? īļLong petrol queues resurface īļA nightmare no one wishes for MC > MR = Negative Profit īļDangote refinery to the rescue īļPricing plays a major role 38
  • 39. 39 “ U n f o r t u n a t e l y , n o t a n y t i m e s o o n ” When will the Nigerian consumer smile?
  • 40. Too Early to be Happy? īļ Fall in food prices is sadly temporary īļ Living costs are climbing īļ Domestic airfares up by 100% - new price floor set at N50,000 īļ On higher jet fuel prices, spare part imports and forex scarcity īļ A Lagos – Abuja return ticket now selling for over N100,000 īļ Rent payments up by an average of 20% as landlords discount for inflation īļ Electricity costs also high 40 “ P e r h a p s i t s s t i l l t o o e a r l y t o b e h a p p y ”
  • 41. Inflation Biting Deep into People’s Pockets īļ Headline inflation still high at 15.6% īļ 6.6% above the CBN’s target ceiling of 9% and growth retarding īļ Disposable income bleeding profusely īļ If you’ve been earning N200,000 as a monthly income – here’s what inflation has done to your money 41 2019 2022 Inflation rate (%) 11.98 15.60 Real income (N) 176,040 168,800 The value of your N200,000 has fallen by 4.1% in the last 3 years, meanwhile costs keep climbing
  • 42. Exchange rate pass through effect Insecurity Logistics costs and supply chain disruptions Higher energy costs (PMS, diesel & electricity) Money supply saturation Will the Cycle Ever End? īļ In the meantime, inflationary pressures will persist īļ So the loop continues, till the CBN fully resumes its primary function of price stability 42 Planting season
  • 43. Consumer Response īļ Consumers to keep rationing income to prioritize necessities īļ No incentive to save īļ Stalling behaviour from FG in addressing harsh living conditions could: īļ Trigger public unrest īļ Increase the rate of emigration īļ Worsen crime rate/cybercrime 43
  • 44.
  • 46. Monetary – CBN Targets $200bn Non-oil Revenue in 3 Years īļCBN targets $200bn non-oil revenue in the next 3 to 5 years īļTo boost forex supply and address currency pressures īļThis is equivalent to an annual increase of $70bn (17.5% increase in GDP) īļExport earnings currently at $50.5bn īļOf which crude oil accounts for 74.6% and gas accounts for 12.8% īļNon-oil export earnings is currently 12.6% = $6.4bn Y = C + I + G + NX $465.1bn $303.0bn $147.1bn $41.3bn -$29.9bn 46
  • 47. The MPC’s Next Move? īļ Next MPC meeting scheduled for March 22/23 īļ Major considerations would be: īļ Inflation: 15.6% (Jan’22) īļ Growth: 3.98% (Q4’21) īļ Exchange rate pressure (Parallel: N576/$, IEFX: N416/$) īļNext move: 47 īļ Status quo 11.5% (probability 55%) īļ To keep stimulating growth at the expense of rising inflation īļ A huge disincentive to investment inflows īļRate hike to 13.5% (probability 45%) īļTo taper inflation īļIn tandem with the global trend
  • 48. 48 Investing in a Pre-election Climate – Equities, Real Estate or Bitcoin?
  • 49. 49 Investment in a Pre-election Yearâ€ĻEquites/Real Estate? Nigerian Equities Real Estate Bitcoin Dollar Investments – US Equities 10.95% 17.1% 16.9% 8.00%
  • 50. Global Fund Managers In 2022 īļGlobal fund managers confronting an array of headwinds: high inflation, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and elevated valuations īļIndustry players are mitigating the impact through strategic diversification, mergers and acquisitions and robust financing īļIncreasing capital flight from Russian investments to other emerging markets īļIndustry players are buying into growth opportunities in private markets and ESG funds (environmental, social and governance) 50
  • 51. If You Invested N10mnâ€Ļ.2021 vs 2022 Returns Investment Securities 2021 Return Investors’ Return 2022 –YTD Return Investors’ Return US equities (S&P 500) 26.9% N2,690,000 8.00% - N800,000 Nigerian equities 6.07% N607,000 10.95% N 1,095,000 Avg. NTB (364 days) 7% N 700,000 5% N500,000 Real Estate 15% N1,500,000 16.9% N1,690,000 Bitcoin 59.7% N5,970,000 17.1% - N1,710,000 īļUncertainty characterized by the geopolitical war coupled with forthcoming interest rate hikes will dampen the investment climate īļBitcoin – best performing asset class in 2021 but unimpressive in 2022 īļInvestors to remain cautious among risky assets 51
  • 52. NGX Indices in February īļ NGX ASI gained 1.65% in February īļ All indices in green territory īļ Reflecting investors renewed interest for Nigerian equities market īļ Underpinned by impressive corporate earnings īļ Investors rotate their funds as fixed income yields slide īļ Rising oil prices spur gains in the oil and gas industry 7.76% 2.32% 2.82% 2.76% 2.53% 1.65% Oil & Gas Consumer Goods Industrials Banking Insurance NGX ASI February 52
  • 53.
  • 54. Invest in Equities or Not? 54 īļEquities to remain popular amongst investors as yields in the fixed income space declines and inflation continues its upward trend īļ Investors to buy into fundamentally strong stocks with attractive valuations in a post-election year īļOil & gas sector to continue its gaining streak, which will be bolstered by soaring oil prices īļFX availability to improve cost margins of sensitive sectors īļStock market sensitive to economic and political vulnerabilities īļIncreased cost of borrowing will further reduce profitability īļBanking stocks to gather weak sentiment driven by the elimination of tax shelter īļReduced profitability likely to hurt dividend pay-outs
  • 56. Zenith Bank- FY’2021 Earnings īļ Zenith bank resilient despite a wobbly year īļ Gross earnings up 10% to N765.6bn īļ Underpinned by a 7% growth in net interest income to N320.8bn īļ Attributable to loan growth īļ Non-interest income increased by 23% to N309bn īļ Bottom line grew by 6% to N244.6bn īļ Supported by the reduction in interest expense and growth in non-interest income 56
  • 57. Zenith Bank- FY’2021 Earnings īļ Total assets up 11% to N9.45trn īļ Total customer deposit up 21% to N6.42trn (increased customer base) īļ Investors set to enjoy mouth-watering final dividends īļ Dividend up 3.7% to N2.8 (N2.7 in Dec 2020) īļ NPL ratio declined by 2% to 4.19% (4.29% in Dec 2020) īļ Liquidity (71.6%) and capital adequacy (21%) ratios remain above regulatory thresholds 57
  • 58. Elimination of Tax Shelter-Impact on Earnings and Dividend īļBanking sector pays an average effective tax rate of 12% relative to a nominal tax rate of 30% īļBut effective tax rate expected to surge due to tax shelter removal on FGN securities īļDividend payment and share price will be negatively impacted as profitability shrinks īļInvestors will likely reposition and hunt after attractive sectors Zenith Bank 2020 2021 2022* (based on new tax policy) PBT (N’bn) 255.9 280.4 280.4 Tax Paid (N’bn) 25.3 35.8 84.12 Effective Tax Rate 10% 12.8% 30% PAT (N’bn) 230.6 244.6 196.28 DPS(N) 3 3.1 2.6 Dividend Yield 12.1% 0.2% to 12.3% 2.7% to 9.6% 58
  • 59. Real Estate Update īļ Annual GDP growth positive at 2.26% īļ On increased investor confidence despite low consumer purchasing power īļ When inflation climbs, investments in housing and landed properties rise īļ In a bid to hedge against inflation and garner reasonable yields īļ But housing deficit still high at 22 million as affordable housing stays scarce īļ Likely CBN intervention in housing sector to boost growth īļ Demand for yield by investors amid short supply of real estate to drive sector activities in the near term 59
  • 60. In the Endâ€Ļ īļ Investors should diversify their portfolio – depending on your risk appetite īļ Real estate, equities and fixed income securities are more stable options īļ Compared to cryptocurrencies, due to high volatility in the global markets 60
  • 61.
  • 63. Aviation - Global Update īļThe aviation industry was already on the mend in Q4’2021 īļMost carriers were already projecting to reach the pre-pandemic load factors by 2023 īļSingapore Airlines, the gold standard of aviation, reported a sharp improvement in its earnings, load factor and yield in December 2021 īļNet profit stood at $62.8mn, its first positive earning since the pandemic īļThe Star Alliance, Lufthansa, Brussels and Swiss, all reported superior performance in Q4’2021 īļLufthansa recorded an EBIT of $19mn, for the first time since the pandemic 63
  • 64. Aviation - Global Update īļHeathrow - the world’s 3rd busiest international airport - showing a slight resurgence with passenger traffic reaching 2.6mn in January īļThis is 300% higher than January 2021 īļAfter 2 years of lower passenger traffic, with decline peaking at over 300% to 19.39mn in 2021, Heathrow expects to return to profitability in 2022 īļThe UK has stopped all COVID-19 restrictions for visiting passengers īļThe US is also following suit in dismantling COVID-19 restrictions for vaccinated and boosted passengers 64
  • 65. Aviation - Global Update īļEasing restrictions are expected to support the recovery momentum of the global aviation industry īļIn Q3’21, the industry-wide operating loss was 2.6% of revenues compared to 13.6% over the April-June period. īļThere continues to be renewed optimism about recovery īļHowever, rebound not likely to be broad-based across all markets īļMeanwhile, several airlines have halted flights to Ukraine amid the Russian invasion 65
  • 66. Domestic Travel Update īļPositive 19.70% growth in 2021 compared to -36.98% contraction in 2020 īļOn high demand mainly driven by sustained insecurity – kidnappings īļDomestic airfares to increased by 100% amid forex scarcity and rising cost of aviation fuel īļNew United Nigeria Airlines and Air Peace partnership to advance capacity of airlines 66
  • 67. Domestic VS International airfares īļDomestic airfares rising at a faster pace than international airfares īļThe price of a flight from Lagos to Abuja has increased more than a Lagos to London flight 58261 411,562 105500 422,158 Feb'21 Feb'22 VS LOS to ABJ LOS to LHR 81% 2.6% īļ The IATA rate of exchange has been stable at N444/$, indicating steady forex supply by the CBN to the airlines 67
  • 68. Domestic Travel Update īļNigerian passengers flying to the UK without a valid Schengen visa not eligible to travel with European airlines īļIn the interim, this is likely to spur an uptick in demand for British Airways flights to the UK īļIt will also create additional market for key regional players like Kenya and Ethiopian airways īļEmirates airlines has resumed flights to and from Nigeria īļ7 out of Abuja and 14 out of Lagos īļThe resumption of Emirates Airlines flights in Nigeria means a disruption to Qatar Airways’ “monopoly” 68 68
  • 69. Domestic Travel Update īļAir Peace is helping bring passengers back from Ukraine īļMeanwhile, domestic tickets remain high as airlines continue to record full board īļThis is driven mainly by insecurity 69 69
  • 70.
  • 72. Political Update- 350 Days to Go! īļPresident has signed the Electoral Act īļFeb 25th 2023 is the Presidential Election Day īļWhat are your predictions? The process is just as important as the outcome 72
  • 73. A 3-Way Horse Race vs vs Capacity, Competence, Charisma: the 3 Cs The 3 Ws: Battle of Wits, Wants & Wallets 73
  • 74. The Political Race Begins- An All Comers Game Timeline: Conventions Elections Campaigns Primaries The race begins February 25, 2022 THE CONTESTANTS Front Runners Dreamers Political Mercenaries Sure Bankers Dark Horse 74
  • 75. Players to Watch- many are called but few are chosen Rotimi Amaechi Godswill Akpabio Nyesom Wike Yemi Osinbajo Kayode Fayemi Bola Tinubu Muhammed Hayatu-deen Atiku Abubakar Bala Mohammed Aminu Tambuwal Bukola Saraki 75
  • 76. Political Levers of Control Security Agencies Influencers and Celebrities Social media Corporate Nigeria International Financial Community Mainstream Media Retired Generals Crime Syndicates Incumbent Administrations Judges and Judiciary 76
  • 77. 77 What Next?? E x p e c t a t i o n , A n t i c i p a t i o n & B r e a t h - H o l d i n g
  • 78. Data Release Calendar īļ OPEC meeting – March 2 īļ US Fed meeting – March 15/16 īļ February inflation – March 15 īļ MPC meeting – March 22/23 78
  • 79. What Next? īļ GDP growth to remain mildly positive as base effect wanes īļ Official headline inflation will fall in February (15.4%) before picking up more rapidly to 15.6% in March īļ Food and energy prices will remain high, further eroding consumer disposable income īļ Fuel scarcity could linger as Russia-Ukraine tensions delay PMS imports īļ Exchange rate pressures to persist at both parallel and IEFX markets īļ Rising oil prices to mildly support external reserves accretion īļ And boost the CBN’s forex intervention efforts 79
  • 80. What Next? īļNon-oil exports’ contribution to forex revenue will be flat īļN65/$ rebate will be mostly ignored īļForce majeures and oil bunkering will increase at the expense of the FGN īļStock market performance could be bullish as yields on fixed income instruments remain low īļDomestic investors will keep their eyes on corporate earnings īļInternational investors will be more focused on the electoral risks 80
  • 81. What Next? īļCBN will maintain status quo but will commence mopping up liquidity īļAfter the convention this month, the APC will splinter īļThe PDP will be embroiled in a zoning squabble īļThis is the long awaited dance- Azikiwe 81
  • 82. Corporate Humour Swearing is a compromise between running away and fighting. – Finley Peter Dunne 82 I would rather have an inferiority complex and be pleasantly surprised than have a superiority complex and be rudely awakened – Vanna Bonta A prisoner of war is a man who tries to kill you and fails, and then begs you not to kill him. – Winston Churchill
  • 83. Corporate Humour One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. – Plato 83 A committee is a group of the unwilling, picked from the unfit to do the unnecessary – Richard Harness Love is like wine; To sip is fine, but to empty the bottle is a headache. – Julio Iglesias
  • 84. Corporate Humour A woman’s mind is cleaner than a man’s. She changes it more often. – Oliver Herford 84 Men should be like Kleenex soft, strong and disposable. – Cher I am a marvellous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man, I keep his house. – Zsa Zsa Gabor
  • 85. Corporate Humour After marriage, husband and wife become two sides of a coin, they just can’t face each other, but still they stay together – Hemant Joshi 85 A husband is what is left of the lover after the nerve is extracted. – Helen Rowland
  • 86. 86
  • 87. Bismarck J. Rewane, MD/CEO Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. Lagos, Nigeria 01-6320213 Š 2022. “This publication is for private circulation only. Any other use or publication without the prior express consent of Financial Derivatives Company Limited is prohibited.”