FD 3-2021-Transport, electric transport

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NTWC
Effects of Euro 7 standard on nitrogen
oxides emissions
Car manufacturers’ cease of combustion engines
production
Evaluation of battery cells life cycle
eco-friendliness
Efficiency and environmental sustainability of
hybrid automobiles
Electric cars infrastructure development
#3 2021
TRANSPORT,
ELECTRIC TRANSPORT

Transport, electric transport | Watching period: 04.05.2021-23.06.2021
2 | Page NTWC | New Technologies Watch Center| www.ntwc.ru | +7 495 188 97 28
Special bulletin | TRANSPORT, ELECTRIC TRANSPORT
Editor-in-chief: Ulyana Makhova Translator: Alisa Makhmudova
“GAZ Group” has started production of the
“GAZelle NN” automobiles compliant with Euro-6
standard in Turkey [4971]. It is the first Russian
commercial light motor car to meet the standard.
In April 2021 Russian light-duty automobiles
market has grown by 213.8% in comparison to April
2020, when the whole country was under lockdown
due to COVID-19 pandemic; the overall growth is
estimated to be 169.77K units [4985, 4986]. New bus
market has also shown growth by 162.6% comparing
to last April. The total offtake of new buses has
reached 1.33K units [4984]. Market selling of new-
made trucks has doubled measuring up to 9.62K
units [4983, 4987].
The behavior of European market in March is
presented in European Automobile Manufacturers’
Association’s (ACEA) report [4811]. In contrast to
March of 2020 the market has grown by 93%. Since
the start of the year, the share of electromobiles in
overall car registrations has been the highest in
Norway (82%), Iceland (53%), and Sweden (37%).
The average percentage in Europe is 15% [5066].
In the last three years most US battery cells
(70%) and battery packs (87%) for hybrid
automobiles were produced domestically, the study
by Argonne National Laboratory says [5167].
US Department of Energy and Office of Energy
Efficiency & Renewable Energy have developed the
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions calculator which
are produced by electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles
(PHEV). Consumers can estimate tailpipe and
upstream emissions by entering a vehicle type, year
of production and a ZIP code for the charging station,
the latter helping to account for an original electricity
source [5200].
ICCT report [5067] shows different countries’
plans for ceasing both selling and registration of new
light-duty automobiles with combustion engines by
2050. The figure below shows car manufacturers’
goals for decarbonization [4927]. Some of the
producers, including Volvo, Ford Europe and GM,
have already stated their obligations for gradual
removal of internal combustion engines (ICE) from
manufacturing. Others, like Volkswagen and
Peugeot, have stopped investing in new combustion
engines development.

Can the entire EU go up to 100% electric light-
duty sales by 2035? BNEF specialists think it can
[4927]. On average, battery electric vehicles are
expected to reach the same price as petrol models
between 2025 and 2027. Small vans reach price
parity the earliest, in 2025, small cars are last in
2027, with medium and large sedans and SUVs
hitting the parity point in 2026. In 2030, an average
electric car is anticipated to be 18% cheaper than the
equivalent petrol automobile excluding taxes,
according to T&E reports [4926, 4927].
ACEA has published the annual Tax Guide for
European countries [4810]. Specific taxes are
overviewed, including taxes for buying an
automobile, owning it, excise taxes for fuels and
others. The highest tax for gasoline may be found in
the Netherlands – 813$ per 1000 liters, for diesel fuel
– in Italy, accounting for 617$ per 1000 liters.
Large-scale production and consumption of
battery cells for electric vehicles have caused
another considerable problem: both production and
usage of such batteries cause major environmental
pollution. For instance, precious metals used in
batteries may cause harmful impacts on ecosystems.
In the study of several Chinese universities [4627]
different effects of LiFePO4 and Li(NiCoMn)O2
batteries often used in electric vehicles are
evaluated. On each stage of product life cycle
(shown in the figure below) 11 parameters were
estimated, including human toxicity, fresh and
marine water aquatic ecotoxicity, terrestrial
ecotoxicity, eutrophication (oxygen regimen
disturbance), ozone layer depletion, etc. LiFePO4
batteries turned out to be more environmentally
friendly during manufacturing while Li(NiCoMn)O2
are more so when transported and utilized. Overall,
LiFePO4 battery cells, from the perspective of the
researchers, are more preferable during battery life
cycle in its entirety.
Lithium-ion battery supply chain for e-drive
vehicles in the United States in 2010-2020 is
presented in the review by Argonne National
Laboratory [5168]. The report also contains plug-in
electric vehicles (PEVs) sellings information by car
make and model since 2010 as well as a summary
of lithium-ion battery cells and blocks sites of
manufacture.

China continues to dominate global sales of zero-
emission buses and trucks in 2020 (upholding 91.6%
of total sales), with the main method for emissions
reduction being the utilization of electric vehicles
[5063].
Benefits of adopting California medium- and
heavy-duty vehicle regulations in New York State are
discussed in ICCT’s article [5064]. The authors are
expecting reduction of nitrogen oxides and particle
matter emissions by 40 and 60% accordingly should
no additional measures be taken until 2035 due to
retirements of old automobiles. However, with the
increase of car fleet the amount of emissions is going
to go up again. The effect of emissions reduction
occurring with the introduction of different California
regulation is estimated in this study. NREL report
shows the results of fuel cell electric buses
deployment in California and comparison of their
performance to that of conventional technology
[4745].
The necessity for extensive infrastructure is yet
another major issue with electric vehicles, which is
analyzed in the ECA [4893] and T&E [4930] reports.
Regarding this issue, ECA recommends proposing
minimum electrical charging infrastructure
requirements negotiated by different countries. This
list of requirements should include recommended
average distance between charging points, types of
charging stations, paying methods and supplying of
information to the consumers.
The UK has established a goal to cease light-duty
automobiles with combustion engines from 2030,
meaning that the upgrowth of extensive
infrastructure and electric vehicles becomes
essential. Depending on the time it takes to charge a
vehicle in the course of technology evolvement,
different amount of charging stations may be
necessary, a study by T&E shows [4930]. The figure
below illustrates the number of charging devices in
the UK depending on the charging speed of devices
installed. In order to ensure adequate coverage of
charging through the UK between 18 and 29K
additional charge points need to be installed by 2025.
CRC is expressing concern about the stability of
renewable electricity as the percentage of its usage
increases. A new project is underway to study the
effect of Vehicle-to-grid technology (V2G) with the
option of power retransfer back to the grid on the
battery life [5047].
Florida electric vehicle roadmap is described in
this report [4837]. Another report by NREL is
dedicated to the electric cars infrastructure
development analysis in the 3rd quarter of 2020 in the
US [5107].

Quantifying the long-term emissions and health
benefits from Euro 7 standard implementation is the
focus of the new ICCT study [5065]. The analysis
found the following key points: Euro 7 will bring
significant NOx emissions reductions over the
currently adopted Euro 6d standards for both light-
duty and heavy-duty vehicles (LDVs and HDVs
respectively). Euro 7 standards will significantly
accelerate the reduction in NOx emissions, achieving
a 93% reduction in annual emissions by 2050 relative
to 2027 compared to a 74% reduction under adopted
policies. Heavy-duty vehicles will benefit
proportionately more from Euro 7 standards since
even under the high zero-emission vehicles uptake
scenario, nearly a quarter of the HDV stock will
remain powered by an ICE powertrain by 2050.
Cumulative NOx emissions from HDVs over the
2027-2050 period are reduced by 37% under the
Euro 7 scenario, compared to 20% for LDVs, as
shown on the figure below. The comprehensive
analysis of possible pathways to decarbonization of
European transport is presented in ICCT review
[5062].
CE Delft report [4915] describes the effects of five
different policies, including congestion charging,
implementation of environmental (low-emission)
zones, car-sharing schemes, parking policies and
cycling/walking policies on air pollution. The
introduction of low-emission zones is considered to
have the highest potential for particle matter and NOx
emissions reduction. The evaluation of the cities that
have introduced this measure has shown the
emission reduction level of 10 to 20%. Still, certain
ambiguity in the data provided as the effectiveness
of environmental zones depends heavily on how
strict the rules about emissions are followed and the
size of said zones. The parking policies may also
reduce the particle matter and NOx emissions by 5-
10%. The study on low-emission zones in Madrid is
presented in this article by University of Alcala
[5032].
Investigation of the development of fuel
consumption for China’s gasoline passenger cars
based on more than 4800 automobile models in 5
recent years is carried out in this article by China
Automotive Technology and Research Center
[4582]. Results showed that the average fuel
consumption in 2018 decreased by 6.4% compared
to 2014, about 1.6% per year. The development of
gasoline passenger cars with turbocharge engines
and auto transmissions had the most significant
effect on the fuel consumption reduction

PHEVs sellings are increasing with each coming
year whilst their producing is endorsed with tax
remission system. The question of whether PHEVs
are effective and environmentally friendly enough is
discussed in these studies by T&E [4922] and
Argonne National Laboratory [4885].
Real carbon dioxide emissions produced by
PHEVs turned out to exceed the proposed level by 2
to 4 times, as illustrated by the figure below [4922].
This fact makes it hard for users to drive
predominantly in zero-emission mode. This is largely
due to underpowered electric motors of PHEVs and
unavailability of fast charging. The average power of
electric motor is two times lower than that of a
combustion engine (fig.), meaning that it is
necessary to turn ICE on in operating mode in case
more energy is required, e.g. for acceleration or
heating. T&E recommends removing tax remissions
for PHEVs with electric motor power less than that of
ICE engine, with an electric only range less than 80
km and PHEVs incapable of fast charging.
Comparison from the consumption-based electricity
perspective of provincial greenhouse gas emissions
of gasoline and plug-in electric vehicles in China is
provided in this study [4885]. Results show a high
variation of provincial well-to-wheels GHG emission
intensities for battery electric vehicles (BEVs, 22-
293 g CO2-eq/km) and PHEVs (82-298 g CO2-eq/km)
in contrast to gasoline internal combustion engine
vehicles (227-245 g CO2-eq/km) and gasoline hybrid
electric vehicles (HEVs, 141−164 g CO2-eq/km). Due
to the GHG intensive coal-based electricity and cold
weather, well-to-wheels GHG emission intensities of
BEVs and PHEVs are higher than those of gasoline
ICEVs in seven and ten northern provinces in China,
respectively. The analysis suggests that province-
specific PEVs and electric grid development policies
should be considered for GHG emission reductions
of on-road transportation in China.

Bulletin references | Click for hyperlinks
References # in the FD
library
Reports
Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles | European Court of Auditors | 2021 [4893]
Charging Forward Creating a world-class UK charging network | Greg Archer | 2021 [4930]
Cars CO2 review: Europe’s chance to tackle fake electrics | Anna Krajinska | 2021 [4922]
Hitting the EV Inflection Point | Nikolas Soulopoulos and others | 2021 [4926]
Break-up with combustion engines | T&E | 2021 [4927]
Florida Electric Vehicle Roadmap | Kelley Smith Burk | 2020 [4837]
Air pollution and transport policies at city level | Committed to the Environment | 2021 [4915]
Update on government targets for phasing out new sales of internal combustion engine passenger cars | ICCT | 2021 [5067]
Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Trends from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator: Third Quarter 2020 [5107]
ACEA Tax Guide 2021 | European Automobile Manufacturers Association | 2021 [4810]
SunLine Transit Agency Fuel Cell Electric Bus Progress Report | NREL | 2021 [4745]
Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain for E-Drive Vehicles in the United States: 2010-2020 | Argonne National Laboratory
| 2021
[5168]
Evaluation of the Use of EVs for Transient Grid Storage (V2G) on Battery Life | CRC | 2021 [5047]
Pathways to decarbonization: the European passenger car market in the years 2021–2035 | ICCT | 2021 [5062]
European passenger car and light-commercial vehicle registrations: january–april 2021 | ICCT | 2021 [5066]
Annual and Sustainability Report | Porsche | 2021 [4879]
Articles
Zero-emission bus and truck market in the United States and Canada: A 2020 update | Ben Sharpe and others |
2021
[5063]
Benefits of adopting California medium- and heavy-duty vehicle regulations in New York State | Ray Minjares and
others | 2021
[5064]
Provincial Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Gasoline and Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Comparison from the
Consumption-Based Electricity Perspective | Yu Gan, Zifeng Lu and others | 2021
[4885]
Life-cycle assessment of the environmental impact of the batteries used in pure electric passenger cars | Xiong Shu
and others | 2021
[4627]
Could fast battery charging effectively mitigate range anxiety in electric vehicle usage? Evidence from large-scale
data on travel and charging in Beijing | Bin Zhang and others | 2021
[4640]
Investigation on the Development of Fuel Consumption for China’s Gasoline Passenger Car in Recent Years |
Hanzhengnan Yu and others | 2020
[4582]
Low emission zones: Effects on alternative-fuel vehicle uptake and fleet CO2 emissions | Jens F. Peters and others |
2021
[5032]
Quantifying the long-term air quality and health benefits from Euro 7/VII standards in Europe | Eamonn Mulholland
and others | 2021
[5065]
Other materials (news, videos)
Consumers Can Estimate Upstream Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles |
U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | 2021
[5200]
Most U.S. Light-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicle Battery Cells and Packs Produced Domestically from 2018 to 2020 |
Argonne National Laboratory | 2021
[5167]
Materials in Russian – contact us to purchase a translation
Top-20 regions in new light-duty automobiles market in April 2021 | Russian Automotive Market Research | 2021 [4985]
Light-duty automobiles and LCV market. January-April 2021 | Russian Automotive Market Research | 2021 [4986]
Commercial technology sells in April | Russian Automotive Market Research | 2021 [4987]
New buses sells in April 2021 | Russian Automotive Market Research | 2021 [4984]
Best sellers of new trucks in April 2021 | Russian Automotive Market Research | 2021 [4983]
“GAZ Group” has started production of the “GAZelle NN” automobiles compliant with Euro-6 standard in Turkey |
Russian Automobiles Dealers Association | 2021
[4971]

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