This document provides an overview and forecast of opportunities, trends, and projects in the oil and gas midstream/downstream sectors from 2015-2017. It summarizes that total investment in pipelines is forecast to be $106.96 billion, with the largest amount in 2017, while investment in production is forecast to be $65.82 billion, with the largest amount occurring in 2014. The document also outlines various LNG export terminal projects totaling $76.6 billion and increases in natural gas processing capacity requirements regionally through 2023.
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Keynote: Opportunities, Trends & Forecasts for O&G - Midstream/Downstream Projects and Workforce
1. OPPORTUNITIES, TRENDS & FORECASTS
FOR O&G – MIDSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM
PROJECTS AND WORKFORCE
Michael Bergen Executive VP, Industrial Info Resources
KEYNOTE
STRATEGIES & OPPORTUNITIES: MANAGING
IN A TURBULENT OIL & GAS WORLD
2. Workforce Next Spring Summit – 2015
Present ed by
Industrial Info Resources, Inc.
Industrial Market Outlook
3. IIR provides market intelligence that can be leveraged across all departments
Website Resources
4. IIR’s Industrial Market Coverage
O & G PRODUCTION
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE OIL & GAS PROCESSING
LNG EXPORT TERMINALS, GAS-TO-LIQUIDS
O &G PIPELINES
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE CRUDE OIL, CONDENSATE,
GAS & REFINED PRODUCTS
O & G TERMINALS
STORAGE FACILITIES, LNG RECEIVING & REGASIFICATION
PETROLEUM REFINING (HPI)
REFINERIES, LUBE OIL PLANTS AND ASPHALT PLANTS
CHEMICAL PROCESSING (CPI)
PETROCHEMICAL, AGRICULTURAL, INDUSTRIAL GASES,
ORGANIC & INORGANIC CHEMICALS
PHARMACEUTICAL & BIOTECH
MANUFACTURING FACILITIES AND RESEARCH LABORATORIES
ELECTRIC POWER
GENERATION, TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
METALS & MINERALS
MINES, MILLS AND PROCESSING PLANTS
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
DURABLE AND NON-DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING
FOOD & BEVERAGE
PROCESSING & DISTRIBUTION/STORAGE FACILITIES
PULP, PAPER & WOOD
MILLS, FOREST PRODUCTS & CONVERTING PLANTS
ALTERNATIVE FUELS
ETHANOL, BIODIESEL, COAL GASIFICATION, FUEL PELLETS
5. Latin America
8,906 Projects
$1.23 Trillion
18% Growth
Africa
2,854 Projects
$694 Billion
67% Growth
Oceania
2,414 Projects
$710 Billion
33% Growth
Asia
37,744 Projects
$6.66 Trillion
37% Growth
Europe
14,855 Projects
$2.14 Trillion
34% Growth
North America
18,620 Projects
$2.41 Trillion
15% Growth
Worldwide Coverage Represents a 30% increase (Feb 2014 to Feb 2015).
Flags Represent IIR’s World Regional Research Offices
Our Global Reach
87,388 Projects in Progress worth $13.93 trillion
Based on active projects with future completion dates and QC’d in the last 12 months
Latin America
10,888 Projects
$1.3 Trillion
17% Growth
4
6. 42%
37%
41%
28%
19%
30%
18%
17%
20%
29%
30%
29%
5%
6%
6%
10%
14%
8%
7%
10%
7% 5%
7%
7%
6%
4%
4% 5%
7%
4%
13% 16%
12% 13% 15% 15%
8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pharmaceutical
Industrial Mfg
Food & Beverage
Pulp & Paper
Metals & Minerals
Chemical
Oil & Gas
Power
65% 60% 67% 67% 63%
United States
How Has Industry Spending Shifted?
Energy & Chemical Maintain 60+% of Industrial Construction Activity
Pre-fallout
observation
$300 billion
Proposed
7. Oil & Gas Production – Industrial Market Spending Driver
7 of the 12 Industries are benefitting from unconventional production
Bakken, Eagle Ford,
Permian, Utica
Marcellus, Niobrara
INPUT BENEFICIARIES OUTPUT BENEFICIARIES
6
Drill Pipe
Fabrication
Steel Pipe/
Tube Mills
Fracturing
Equipment
Producers
Proppant
Producers
High-
Velocity
Fluids
Frac Sand
Mines
Midstream
Processing
Ethylene
Capacity
Storage
TerminalsFertilizer
Plants
LNG Export
Market
Gas to
Liquids
Petroleum
Refineries
Manufacturing
Electronics
Ceramics
Textile
Micro-LNG
Domestic Market
Pipelines
Automotive
Downstream
Petrochem
Methanol
Power
Generation
Production Field
Still Viable with Low Crude Prices
2,558 Projects @ $182 billion
2007 - 2014
Paints
Coatings
Chemical
Industry
Rubber &
Plastic Good
?
?
?
8. -1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Global Supply / Demand Trends
Versus WTI/Brent Spot Price
IEA February 2015
WTI Spot $/bbl Brent Spot $/bbl
Short Term Supply / Demand Outlook
Marginal Price Increases
7
Demand>Supply Short Term Supply Trends
• Crude prices stabilized following early Feb gains –
Brent higher than WTI.
• Price rebound off falling US rig counts and
“opportunistic buyers” – Contango traders
• US rig count declines not yet filtered into lower US
production growth.
• Global supply rose by 1.3 m/bpd Yr-on-Yr to an
estimated 94 m/bbl/d in Feb.
• Led by a 1.4 m/bpd gain in non-OPEC production.
• US supply revised upwards by 300 k/bpd for Q4
2014 and Q1 2015 also revised up.
• OPEC crude edged down by 90 k/bpd - loses in Libya
and Iraq offset higher Saudi, Iranian and Angolan
production.
Supply>Demand
Axis shows difference (mn/bpd) between global crude production and global demand.
-ve indicates demand greater than daily
+ve indicates supply volumes exceed demand.
Mn bpd
Sources: IEA, EIA
Short Term Demand Trends
• Global Demand bottomed out in Q2 2014 and since
steadily risen. Yr-on-Yr gains of 0.9 m/bpd for Q4
2014 and 1m/bbl/d for Q1 2015.
• Global demand forecast raised 75 k/bpd to 1 m/bpd.
2015 average to be approx. 93.5 m/bpd.
• Global Refining throughputs raised for H1 2015 but
annual gains are forecast to be down from 2.2
m/bpd in Q4 2014.
• Storage build up in US, China, India, Europe, S.
Korea, Africa, Japan (70% capacity).