The State of the Severn Report Rhoda Ballinger has a degree in Geography, a Postgraduate Certificate in Education and a PhD from the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth. Over the last decade, particularly as a member of the Marine and Coastal Environment Research Group, she has engaged in a quest for model institutional and policy frameworks to deliver Integrated Coastal Management (ICM). Currently, her interest in non-statutory and participatory processes for ICM is reflected in her postgraduate students' research topics. Keen to develop more than an academic perspective on coastal management, Rhoda has been heavily and actively involved in the development and day-to-day running of a number of international, national and local coastal and estuary management projects, including the Severn Estuary Partnership. This presentation will build on the launch of the State of the Severn Estuary Report at last year’s Forum event. The presentation will highlight the current development of indicator sets and specific report cards detailing the ‘State of the Severn in specific themed areas. The presentation will focus mainly on the approach taken and the initial findings.

1. The State of the Severn Estuary
Reporting
Rhoda Ballinger & Rachel Gregory

2. Format of talk
• Need for Severn Estuary reporting
• State of the Severn Report
• Current report card series
• Way forward

3. NEED FOR SEVERN ESTUARY
REPORTING

4. Context
• Common practice
elsewhere
– Collating and interpreting
baseline data
– Identifying trends
– Informing future
decisions
– Raising awareness &
understanding in local
communities

5. Context contd.
• Europe & ICZM
– Projects – sustainability
– Climate change
implications
• Need for Severn Estuary
reporting
– Severn Estuary Strategy
– SEP Business Plan priority
– INTERREG IV IMCORE /
DELTANET

6. STATE OF THE SEVERN ESTUARY
REPORT

7. 2011 report aims
• To provide:
– An overview of the ‘State
of the Severn Estuary’
– A basis for future
reporting
• To inform a wide-ranging
audience, including
Estuary users and local
people about the Estuary
• Based on best available &
most up-to-date data
(2010)

8. Report contents & approach

9. Related website development
• Digital publication
– Virtual book
– http://viewer.zmags.com/pu
blication/ad5b93bd#/ad5b93
bd/1
• Estuary maps
– http://www.severnestuary.ne
t/sep/estuary/maps.html

10. Updating estuary web pages

11. Feedback on report
• IMCORE Autumn 2011 workshop
• Supported state of the Severn reporting
• simple Severn specific graphics & information
• importance of explaining ‘Why does it matter’ under
each theme
• Recommendations included development of:
– Existing & additional themes
– Reporting process:
• Indicator identification
• Engagement with local user groups

12. REPORT CARD SERIES

13. Aims
• To provide a concise & user-friendly snapshot of
the State of the Estuary
• To update key trends from the State of the
Estuary Report
• To expand on topics covered in:
– 2011 State of the Estuary Report
– IMCORE Climate Change Report card series
• DELTANET project
– sharing best practice
– raising estuary awareness

14. Support for card development
• Environment Agency
– Rhys Morgan
• CUROP Cardiff University Student Placement
– Rachel Gregory
• DELTANET project

15. Key themes for 2011 cards
• Population & development
• Port traffic
• Maintenance dredging
• Sea defence & shoreline
management
• Bathing water quality
• The water environment
– River flows
– Weather, sea conditions &
climate change

16. Area covered & reporting period
• Area covered by report card
series
– SAME area as for State of Severn
Estuary Report
– Severn Estuary Partnership area
– Severn Estuary & Inner Bristol
Channel
• Reporting period
– Wherever possible 2011 data used
– Comparison with:
• 2010 from State of Severn Estuary
Report
• 2000 for selected topics

17. REPORT CARD EXAMPLE
THE WATER ENVIRONMENT

18. The Water Environment
Consists of a total of 4 report
cards covering a variety of
topics

19. Freshwater Flows
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
Severn
Wye
Usk
Taff
Rhymn…
Parrett
Ely
Ebbw
Mean Flow POR (m3/s) Mean Flow 2011 (m3/s)
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Rainfall(mm)
Year
Rainfall measured at Bute Park, Cardiff

20. Uncertainty
 Natural Variability
 Modelling Uncertainty
 Future Emissions

21. The North
Atlantic
Oscillation
The North Atlantic
Oscillation has a
strong influence over
the winter weather in
the Northern
Hemisphere. If it is in
the positive
phase, the UK tends
to have warm, wet
winters, and if it is in
the negative
phase, winters tend to
be colder and drier.

22. Sea Level & Wave Heights
 Sea level has
increased at
approximately 2.4mm/yr
over the past 15 years
 However, maximum
sea levels appear to be
decreasing, while
minimum sea levels
appear to be increasing
 Wave height has increased over the past 25
years, which is likely to be linked to the positive
state of the NAO. This drives stronger westerly
winds leading to bigger waves.

23. Storminess,
Wind Speed
& Wind
Direction
 There are a number of
conflicting predictions as
to the effects of climate
change on storminess.
 Wind direction can
effect the direction of
wave attack on the
shoreline, and
therefore significantly
increase erosion. This
was illustrated at
Penarth in 1997/98.
 Wind speed has decreased by approximately 12.5 %
over the past 25 years.
This may be related to the NAO, although climate
change and urban development have also been
suggested as possible causes.

24. WAY FORWARD

25. • Draft selection for your
feedback
– style & format
– types of information
– Topics
• Launch of 2011 cards
• Additional cards to be
developed – consider:
– Topics /indicators
– Data availability
– Links to other data
collation/collection
– DELTANET priorities
– Cost/time considerations

26. Further considerations
• Website
– Provision of even simpler ‘headlines’ on topics
– Inclusion of sections on how & where information can be used –
• Engagement
– signposting & targeting key stakeholders
• Senior Management/ Elected Councillors / Local user groups
• Resourcing

27. THANK YOU
DIOLCH YN FAWR BallingerRC@Cardiff.ac.uk
WEBSITE:
http://www.severnestuary.net/s
ep/publications/soser.html