2. Searching for Value
Industry Overview
Key Industry Trends
Industry Overview
1
Company Overview
2
Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
4
aa
Tourists Arrival & Receipts to Singapore
• Genting Bhd’s key revenue contributors are from Genting Singapore and Genting Malaysia
• As such, the industry overview will concentrate on Tourists Arrivals of both Singapore & Malaysia
3. Searching for Value
Industry Overview Industry Spending
Key Industry Trends
Industry Overview
1
Company Overview
2
Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
4
Overall, the tourism industry is a growing industry benefitting from a
increasing middle-class segment in China, Indonesia and India
Tourists Arrival & Receipts to Malaysia
5. Searching for Value
Company Overview
• History: The Genting Group was founded in 1965 as a family holiday resort development in Genting Highlands,
Malaysia and has since grown into activities such as leisure, hospitality, gaming and entertainment, oil palm
plantations, power generation, oil and gas, property development, life sciences and other investments.
Geographically, it has businesses in Malaysia, Singapore, the United States of America, Bahamas, the United
Kingdom, Egypt, China, Indonesia and India.
• Strategy: The Group comprises four public companies listed on the stock exchanges of Malaysia and Singapore –
namely Genting Berhad, Genting Malaysia, Genting Plantations and Genting Singapore. Over 56,000 people are
employed worldwide and the Group has 247,400 hectares of plantation land.
• Valuation: Genting’s share price is on a downtrend since end-2019 following the Malaysia government to
increase its tax collection on Genting.
• Ownership: The Lim Family, in particularly Lim Kok Thay, have control of 42.3% of Genting Bhd.
Market Cap 22,098 EBITDA (FY18) 8,137.1
P/E 16.2x Return on Equity 4.0%
Share Price Current: RM5.70 High/Low: RM7.78/ RM5.59
Key Valuation Statistics (RM’mm)
Company Highlights Valuation & Share Performance
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
421
Key Highlights
PlantationsResorts World GentingResorts World Genting
6. Searching for Value
Industry Overview Industry Spending
Business Model
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
421
Overarching Competitive Advantage: The monopolistic nature of Genting Malaysia and
duopolistic nature of Genting Singapore have allowed the Group to build a well-established
conglomerate by generating constant years of profit and cash flow.
Industry Value Chain
The two key assets Genting Singapore and Genting Malaysia respectively. Genting
Singapore’s main operation focuses on an integrated resort in Sentosa whilst Genting
Malaysia operates Resorts World Genting in Malaysia. In view of the aging assets, Genting
Malaysia has embarked on a 10-year master plan in Malaysia to reinvigorate and transform
Resorts World Genting under the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan.
Another main business unit, Genting Plantations, is involved in oil-palm plantation and
continues to explore opportunities to expand through value-accretive investments for future
growth while progressively planting up areas in its existing landbank. The property division is
also under Genting Plantations to monetise the landbank and developed the Genting
Highlands Premium Outlets to complements the new and existing offerings at Resorts World
Genting as well to provide recurring income.
8. Searching for Value
• For FY2018, revenue increased by 4% to RM20,853.0 million mainly due to
higher revenue (4%) in Leisure & Hospitality Division and increase in revenue
(4%) from the Plantation Division.
• The mass market performed well and further benefitted from Genting Integrated
Tourism Plan to contribute to a 22% increase in non-gaming revenue.
• Net Operating Profit Margin fell to 20.6% (2017: 26.5%) due to higher costs and
expenses from the following:
a) Higher cost at the Downstream Manufacturing segment,
b) Impairment loss of RM2,008.5 million out of which RM1,834.3 million was
due to Genting Malaysia’s investment in the promissory notes issued by the
Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe in view of the uncertainty of recovery.
• Net profit has to be further distilled to “Net Profit attributable to Equity Holders” to
further determine the true earnings distributable to shareholders.
• ROE has been trending down to 4.0% in FYE2018 shows that Genting has not
been generating attractive returns to its shareholders.
Operating ForecastFinancial Highlights – Income Statement
Revenue DriversFinancial Highlights
(RM’mil) FYE2014 FYE2015 FYE2016 FYE2017 FYE2018
Revenue 18,217 18,100 18,366 20,020 20,853
Gross profit 6,310 5,142 5,823 7,278 7,823
Net Profit 3,146 2,598 4,478 3,243 2,444
Net Profit attributable to:
Equity holders 1,496 1,388 2,121 1,445 1,366
Holders of perpetual securities 312 361 366 257 -
Non-controlling interests 1,339 849 1,991 1,541 1,078
FYE2014 FYE2015 FYE2016 FYE2017 FYE2018
Gross Profit Margin 34.6% 28.4% 31.7% 36.4% 37.5%
Net operating profit margin 25.5% 21.6% 34.1% 26.5% 20.6%
ROE – shareholder’s portion 5.6% 4.3% 6.2% 4.3% 4.0%
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
2
Recommendation
431
(RM’mil) Leisure & Hospitality Plantation
Power Property Oil & Gas Others Total
Malaysia Singapore UK & Egypt US Total Oil Palm Downstream Total
Revenue 6,586.3 7,591.7 1,780.7 1,384.9 17,343.6 817.6 964.1 1,781.7 1,067.0 219.9 327.7 113.1 20,853.0
Adjusted EBITDA 2,915.7 3,758.8 182.4 305.8 7,162.7 383.3 11.2 394.5 495.6 76.4 234.5 (226.6) 8,137.1
Segment Analysis
• Resorts World Sentosa and Resorts World Genting continued to be the key drivers with RWG enjoyed an improved hold percentage in the mid to premium players segment.
• Resorts World Sentosa has started to be main contributor to the Group
9. Searching for Value
• Balance sheet appeared acceptable with gearing of 0.7x.
• The current portion of Bank Borrowings due of RM4.1 billion is adequately met by cash reserves of
RM31.0 billion. Further comfort is taken by the fact that Genting is in a net-cash position.
• Future expansions include a project to develop a casino in Japan which will require fundings.
Notwithstanding, Genting is ina comfortable position to raise funds (i.e. Borrowings) for the expansion.
• The increase in the gearing ratio in 2018 was due to higher borrowings of the Group which arose mainly
from the Medium Term Notes issued by GENM Capital Berhad.
• Total proceeds from bank borrowings and issuance of Medium Term Notes in 2018 amounted to only
RM3,775.3 million. Total loans of the Group increased from RM27,179.3 million as at 31 December 2017
to RM29,224.5 million as at 31 December 2018. The increase arose mainly from the RM2.6 billion Medium
Term Notes issued by GENM Capital Berhad in July 2018. The Group’s capital expenditure in respect of
property, plant and equipment incurred in 2018 amounted to RM4,934.5 million, mainly attributable to
development work relating to Genting Integrated Tourism Plan undertaken by Resorts World Genting and
construction work relating to Resorts World Las Vegas.
Operating ForecastFinancial Highlights – Balance Sheet
Key analysisBalance Sheet
(RM’mil) FYE2017 FYE2018
Non-current assets 58,848 59,574
Current assets 34,760 36,568
Assets 93,609 96,141
Current liabilities 8,323 10,118
Non-current liabilities 28,189 28,635
Liabilities 36,512 38,753
Equity 57,101 57,388
Adjusted Total equity (less non-controlling interests) 33,788 34,274
Borrowings
Bank Borrowings 26,969 29,225
Current Portion of Bank Borrowings Due 2,019 4,061
Ratios
Gearing 0.7x 0.7x
Net Cash per share 0.82 1.22
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
2
Recommendation
431
10. Searching for Value
Operating ForecastFinancial Highlights – Cash Flow Statements
Review
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
2
Recommendation
431
• Net cash generated from operating activities was
RM6,830.3 million in 2018 compared with
RM6,835.4 million in 2017.
• Net cash used in investing activities amounted to
RM4,417.9 million due to higher spendings on
property, plant and equipment caused by
construction of Resorts World Las Vegas on the Las
Vegas Strip in the United States of America.
• Financing activities in 2018 recorded a net cash
outflow of RM1,262.4 million mainly due to
repayment of borrowings and payment of transaction
costs, finance costs and dividends paid to non-
controlling interests.
• As a result, Cash and cash equivalents of the Group
increased from RM29,491.9 million as at 31
December 2017 to RM30,987.9 million as at 31
December 2018.
11. Searching for Value
Operating Forecast10-year data
CommentsMulti-year Data
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
2
Recommendation
431
• This is part of the building-up of a 10-year analysis and for now the 2015-18 period will do
• Revenue is showing an up-trend as the Group benefits from a growing tourism industry in
Malaysia and Singapore benefitting from Chinese Tourists.
• However, the net profit has been fluctuating due to “luck” factor, recent impairments from
projects not going as per planned, and higher operating factors.
• Equity is 2017 fell from RM41,152 mil to RM33,788 mil due to a redemption of perpetual
securities during the period. Nonetheless, perpetual are debt in essence and such a
classification is acceptable according to accounting standards.
• ROE is still ranging from 4% to 6% during the past few years which is a sign of efficiency is
not being emphasized adequately.
• Gearing has increased from 0.38x in FY2016 to 0.74x in FY2017 followings the increase in
borrowings to fund projects undertaken to redevelop Genting and other new projects.
However, such projects are facing headwinds and adequate news have been covering the
developments in the past.
• Notwithstanding the risky projects undertaken, Genting is still benefitting from its lack of
competition, entrenched brand name amongst holiday makers, and established operations to
generate cash flow.
• Comfort is taken from its net cash of RM1.22 a share in FY2018
2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue (RM'M) 18,100.4 18,365.8 20,019.6 20,853.0
Gross Margin 28% 32% 36% 38%
NPAT (RM'M) 2,597.7 4,477.8 3,242.8 2,443.9
Earning Per Share 0.371 0.565 0.375 0.352
EBITDA (RM'M) 6,210.2 6,142.6 7,061.1 8,137.1
Equity (RM'M) 39,689.3 41,152.8 33,787.9 34,273.7
ROE 4.3% 6.2% 4.3% 4.0%
Dividends per share 0.04 0.13 0.21 0.22
Gross Debt (RM'M) 17,086.9 15,818.4 24,996.3 25,192.8
Gearing 0.43 0.38 0.74 0.74
Current Ratio 3.75 4.05 4.18 3.61
Cash 22,986.4 24,753.4 28,166.8 29,928.6
Net Cash Per Share 1.58 2.38 0.82 1.22
13. Searching for Value
Recommendation 1
Strategic Rationale
• (Ideally, you will want to show the accretion/dilution at different control premiums,
showcase potential synergies, and demonstrate a multiple re-rating in the market
following the acquisition)
• (How does this target company fit in with Company A’s strategy? What are some of the
intangible elements like customer relationships or human capital talent that Company A
will receive in the acquisition?)
• (Why now? Timing considerations?)
Target Revenue & EBITDA Forecast
Valuation Multiples
Multiple 2018E 2019E 2020E
P/E 60.7x 64.3x 54.8x
EV/Sales 2.5x 1.1x 2.1x
EV/EBITDA 9.9x 8.9x 6.2x
EV/EBIT 10.9x 9.9x 7.2x
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Industry Overview
2
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
Criteria Yes/No
Large, prominent, and conservatively financed Yes
Long record of continuous dividend payment Yes
Limit on the price , P/E <25x Yes
Nine Questions to Determine if a business is a truly excellent one
Yes/No
1. Does the business have an identifiable consumer monopoly?
Yes
2. Are the earnings of the company strong and showing an upward
trend? No
3. Is the company conservatively financed? Yes
4. Does the business consistently earn a high rate of return on
shareholders' equity? No
5. Does the business get to retain its earnings? Yes
6. How much does the business have to spend on maintaining current
operations? Yes
7. Is the company free to reinvest retained earnings in new business
operations, expansions of operations, or share repurchases? How good
a job does the management do at this?
No
8. Is the company free to adjust price to inflation? Yes
9. Will the value added by retained earnings increase the market value of
the company? Yes
15. Searching for Value
Historical Share Price Performance
• Dec 2013 – Old CEO announces retirement; new CEO with 10 years’ industry experience appointed
• Jun 2014 – Company A and Competitor D initiates joint venture, achieving economies of scales in their distribution channels
• Nov 2014 – Company A rolls out Widget 2.0 product line available in store and online
• May 2015 – Company A announces launch of new eCommerce platform; discontinues JV with Competitor D
• Nov 2015 – Company A divests X; market reacts positively to low capital intensity moving forward
• May 2016 – Company A announces acquisition of Competitor F pending antitrust regulatory approval
• Oct 2016 – Company A reports record-breaking Q3 results, exceeding analyst consensus on both top line and EPS growth
• May 2017 – Company A acquires 10% stake in Competitor G in opportunistic bid following poor post-IPO price performance from G
• Sep 2017 – Company A signs 10-year exclusivity agreement with major online retailer, Customer X, to distribute Widget 2.0 on X’s platform
Key Events & Share Price Drivers
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Transaction
Opportunities
4
Valuation
3
Industry Overview
2
16. Searching for Value
Recommendation 1
Strategic Rationale
Prime Target Company Overview
• (Ideally, you will want to show the accretion/dilution at different control premiums,
showcase potential synergies, and demonstrate a multiple re-rating in the market
following the acquisition)
• (How does this target company fit in with Company A’s strategy? What are some of the
intangible elements like customer relationships or human capital talent that Company A
will receive in the acquisition?)
• (Why now? Timing considerations?)
Target Revenue & EBITDA Forecast
• Prime Target
Valuation Multiples
Multiple 2018E 2019E 2020E
P/E 60.7x 64.3x 54.8x
EV/Sales 2.5x 1.1x 2.1x
EV/EBITDA 9.9x 8.9x 6.2x
EV/EBIT 10.9x 9.9x 7.2x
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Industry Overview
2
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
17. Searching for Value
Company EV/ LTM Sales EV/ LTM EBITDA Strategy Structure
(LOGO A)
** .PNG format
**
** What are the
relevant
valuation
metrics for
comps? **
(P/NAV? P/CF?
EV/EBITDAR?
etc.)
• (Any recent developments? Analyst consensus / sentiment?
Overarching themes? Stated growth strategies? Are they direct
competitors?)
• (What industry verticals do they operate in? What are their business
segments? What’s the revenue split?)
(LOGO B)
• (Any recent developments? Analyst consensus / sentiment?
Overarching themes? Stated growth strategies? Are they direct
competitors?)
• (What industry verticals do they operate in? What are their business
segments? What’s the revenue split?)
(LOGO C)
• (Any recent developments? Analyst consensus / sentiment?
Overarching themes? Stated growth strategies? Are they direct
competitors?)
• (What industry verticals do they operate in? What are their business
segments? What’s the revenue split?)
(LOGO D)
• (Any recent developments? Analyst consensus / sentiment?
Overarching themes? Stated growth strategies? Are they direct
competitors?)
• (What industry verticals do they operate in? What are their business
segments? What’s the revenue split?)
(LOGO E)
• (Any recent developments? Analyst consensus / sentiment?
Overarching themes? Stated growth strategies? Are they direct
competitors?)
• (What industry verticals do they operate in? What are their business
segments? What’s the revenue split?)
(LOGO F)
• (Any recent developments? Analyst consensus / sentiment?
Overarching themes? Stated growth strategies? Are they direct
competitors?)
• (What industry verticals do they operate in? What are their business
segments? What’s the revenue split?)
Competitive Environment
Company Overview
1
Industry Overview
2
Team Overview
5
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
18. Searching for Value
Valuation Summary
Broker Estimates
Target Prices
($)
’18e Revenues
($mm)
‘18e EBITDA
($mm)
‘18e EBITDA
Margin (%)
RBC (10/16/2017) $46.00
J.P. Morgan
(10/17/2017)
$45.00
BMO (10/20/2017) $47.50
Morgan Stanley
(10/21/2017)
$47.25
CIBC (10/27/2017) $48.00
Current: $40.00 High: $50.15 Low: $35.79
• (How has Company A’s stock performed relative to the market index? By how much?
Since when?)
• (Are there any nuances regarding how the market is valuing Company A? What
catalysts are priced in? What are not?)
• (Is there a trend where the market rewards Company A for certain types of activity?
Where is the stock trading at in terms of its 52-week range? Is there causality?)
• (What’s the street consensus? What are common analyst themes? Do they think
Company A is under/overvalued?)
Valuation Metrics Intrinsic Trading Precedents
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenue
P/E
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
52-Week Trading Range
Current Analyst Forecast
Comparables Valuation
Precedent Transactions Valuation
DCF Valuation
Share Price
Valuation Football Field (Company A)
$31.81
$44.81
$36.81
$45.00
$22.68 $40.54
$48.00
$63.90
$65.90
$55.90
Stock Price Performance Valuation Football Field
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Transaction
Opportunities
4
Valuation
3
Industry Overview
2
19. Searching for Value
Industry Overview Industry Spending
Key Drivers
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
421
20. Searching for Value
Company Overview
• History: (What year was the company found? Who founded it? What key milestones has the company
achieved?)
• Valuation: (How has the stock performed? What is the market pricing in? What are the drivers behind their
success? What are some of the key investment highlights?)
• Strategy: (What is the company focusing on? What has company management iterated about strategy? What
makes their strategy strong? What are the key details of the company’s strategy?)
• Corporate Finance Transactions: (What are some of the companies most recent/notable/transformative
acquisitions? Did they raise any equity/debt capital? Did they IPO recently?)
• Ownership: (Who are the top shareholders? What % ownership? Value of ownership?)
Enterprise Value $2,626.9 Revenue (FY18e) $968
Market Cap $2,228.2 EBITDA (FY18e) $310
P/E* 39.6x EBITDA Margin 32%
EV/EBITDA* 8.5x Debt / EV 17%
Cash $320 Total Debt $450
Key Metrics Unit
Operating Data
Operating Data
Operating Data
Operating Data
Operating Data
Operating Data
Share Price Current: $40.00 High/Low: $50.15 / $35.79
Key Valuation Statistics ($mm)
Revenue Mix % Gross ($mm)
Segment A % $
Segment B % $
Segment C % $
*P/E and EV/EBITDA are based on FY18(e) for comparison
Industry Data Average
Relevant Industry Vertical A
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenue
P/E
Relevant Industry Vertical B
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenue
P/E
Company Highlights Valuation & Share Performance
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
421
21. Searching for Value
Category Assumptions Comments
2016A 2017-2024E
EBITDA Margin
• (What are your justifications as to why you chose these specific ranges of assumptions? Where do you see opportunity for growth/improvement?
Do you believe the market is misunderstanding something? What do analysts think? Why do you deviate?)
Cost of Revenues
Marketing &
Sales
Technology &
Development
Operating Metric
A
Operating Metric
B
Purchases of
PP&E
Purchases of
Intangibles
Valuation Analysis
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Transaction
Opportunities
4
Valuation
3
Industry Overview
2
22. Searching for Value
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Corporate Finance Activity
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Competitor A divests X
Competitor A acquires X
Competitor A makes hostile bid for Company A
Major product rollout by Company A
Competitor D completes follow-on offering
Competitor E acquires X
Competitor A acquires Competitor B
Competitor C and Competitor D merge in a merger of equals
Competitor F IPO
Competitor A acquires Competitor F
Competitor G pulls IPO bid
Competitor D and Company A initiate joint venture
Competitor D 2:1 stock split
Company A initiates NCIB
Competitor C raises $1bn in Sr. Unsecured Notes
Competitor G IPO
Competitor B divests X
Competitor C buys X
Competitor D IPO
Competitor C files Chapter 11
Company Overview
1
Industry Overview
2
Team Overview
5
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
23. Searching for Value
Geographic Revenue Breakdown Segmented Revenue Breakdown
Industry Revenue Breakdown by Major Segment (2016)
Growing Vertical Revenue
New Vertical Revenue
Stagnating Vertical Revenue
Declining Vertical Revenue
Key Industry Averages
Total Debt/EBITDA
Total Debt/EV
EBITDA margin
EV/EBITDA
P/E Ratio
Market share of top 5 players
Global Industry
Total revenues
Forecasted 5-year revenue growth
Revenue Profile
(What are the secular trends in this industry? What is the industry outlook? What do the financial metrics
imply?)
(What are the aggregate totals? Where have we witnessed deviant trends? Where have we witnessed
convergent trends?)
Canada
29%
United States
16%
Latin America
8%
Europe
5%
Asia/Pacific
18%
Africa
24%
Segment A
7%
Segment B
8%
Segment C
22%
Segment D
32%
Segment E
31%
Industry Overview Industry Spending
Key Industry Trends
Industry Overview
1
Company Overview
2
Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
4
25. Searching for Value
Strategic Review and Opportunities
Key Transaction Theme:
Reco 3
Key Transaction Theme 1:
Key Transaction Theme 2:
Reco 2
Key Transaction Theme 1: (In short, why should this theme be the focal point for Company A’s
management team?)
• (Why will this be the game-changing opportunity for Company A? Why is the timing ideal right now?)
Key Transaction Theme 2:
Reco 1
VALUATION OVERVIEW
Industry Vertical A:
• EV/EBITDA: 0.0x – 0.0x
• EV/Revenue: 0.0x – 0.0x
• P/E: 0.0x – 0.0x
Industry Vertical B:
• EV/EBITDA: 0.0x – 0.0x
• EV/Revenue: 0.0x – 0.0x
• P/E: 0.0x – 0.0x
• (What observations can you make about the range of
multiples? What insights can be gained from the
differences? What is the industry trending towards?)
Company A:
• EV/EBITDA: 2.9x
• EV/Revenue: 3.5x
• P/E: 51.8x
• (Where does Company A stand in terms of relative
industry valuation? Why is it currently trading at a
premium/discount?)
All multiples are NTM
M&A Opportunities
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Industry Overview
2
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
26. Searching for Value
Strategic Rationale
• (When pitching a transaction opportunity to company management, it is best to give
your top recommendation first as their time is valuable. If they are not interested in the
first transaction, the next two recommendations are there to serve as a backup.)
• (There should still be strong strategic rationale to pursue these transactions, what are
they? Are there diversification opportunities available? Scaling opportunities? Etc.)
Acquisition Opportunities
Target A Revenue & EBITDA
• Target A
• Target B
Target A Revenue & EBITDA Forecast
Multiple 2018E 2019E 2020E
P/E 60.7x 64.3x 54.8x
EV/Sales 2.5x 1.1x 2.1x
EV/EBITDA 9.9x 8.9x 6.2x
EV/EBIT 10.9x 9.9x 7.2x
Recommendation: Content/Production Focus
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Industry Overview
2
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
27. Searching for Value
Strategic Rationale
• (When pitching a transaction opportunity to company management, it is best to give
your top recommendation first as their time is valuable. If they are not interested in the
first transaction, the next two recommendations are there to serve as a backup.)
• (There should still be strong strategic rationale to pursue these transactions, what are
they? Are there diversification opportunities available? Scaling opportunities? Etc.)
Acquisition Opportunities
Target C Revenue & EBITDA
• Target C
• Target D
Target C Revenue & EBITDA Forecast
Multiple 2018E 2019E 2020E
P/E 60.7x 64.3x 54.8x
EV/Sales 2.5x 1.1x 2.1x
EV/EBITDA 9.9x 8.9x 6.2x
EV/EBIT 10.9x 9.9x 7.2x
Recommendation: Content/Production Focus
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Industry Overview
2
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
28. Searching for Value
Shareholder Ownership
• (What is the breakdown between institutional/insider/retail ownership? What does this imply for float turnover? What is the float turnover?)
• (Who are the top shareholders? How has this ownership dynamic changed over time? What are the key takeaways from this dynamic? What kinds of opportunities
does this create? How has this activity impacted valuation?)
Ownership Analysis
Company Overview
1
Industry Overview
2
Team Overview
5
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
29. Searching for Value
Capital Adequacy
• Capital intensity diminishes over time (Why is this happening? Is it signaling a strategic shift? What does this mean for liquidity? What is the split between growth and
maintenance capex?)
• Cash position improves over time (Why is this happening? How is this beneficial? What kinds of opportunities can Company A pursue with all this dry powder?)
• (What are some potential pitfalls Company A might run into? How can these be avoided?)
̶ (Where is capex expected to spike? Why? Are debt maturities evenly spaced out, or are they all within a short duration of each other? What does this mean?)
Debt Facility Outs.
($mm)
Avail.
($mm)
Maturity Interest rate Notes
Convertible
Senior
Unsecured
Notes
Revolving
Credit Facility
(What is the overarching theme? If your client takes away only one sentence from this slide, what should it be?)
(in millions of U.S. dollars) 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Historical & Forecasted PP&E Capex 50.0 50.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 70.0
Historical & Forecasted Intangibles Capex 200.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0
Debt Repayment - - 100.0 50.0 - 35.0 15.0 50.0 - 100.0 - 50.0
Liquidity Analysis
Company Overview
1
Industry Overview
2
Team Overview
5
Valuation
3
Transaction
Opportunities
4
30. Searching for Value
Table of
Contents
Company Overview
1
4. Company Overview
5. Business Model
6. Operating Forecast
7. Shareholder Ownership
8. Liquidity Analysis
Industry Overview
2
10. Competitive Environment
11. Key Industry Trends
12. Corporate Finance Activity
Valuation
3
14. Historical Share Price Performance
15. Valuation Overview Including Football Field
16. Valuation Analysis
17. Comparables Overview
18. Precedents Overview
20. Strategic Review and Opportunities
21. Recommendation 1
22. Recommendation 2
Transaction Opportunities
4
Team Overview
5
25. Investment Banking Team
26. Deal Tombstones
23. Recommendation 3
Appendices
A
31. Searching for Value
Comparables Analysis
• (What is the reasoning behind choosing this particular peer set? Do they have similar business models? Are they direct competitors?)
• (What are the key similarities that you’ve identified in this peer set in terms of operations? Strategy? What are the differences?)
• (Which company is the closest proxy for Company A? Why? Which company is outperforming Company A? How can Company A be better than this
outperformer?)
Comparable Company Rationale
(in millions of U.S. dollars) Stock Equity Firm EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / Earnings
Company Symbol Price Value Value 2016A LTM NTM 2018E 2016A LTM NTM 2018E 2016A LTM NTM 2018E
Competitor A A.TO $41.00 $8,015 $7,573 6.8x 5.9x 5.9x 4.6x 7.0x 8.8x 8.0x 12.3x 101.3x 59.5x 40.2x 36.3x
Competitor B B.TO $3.59 $2,494 $3,104 4.9x 4.3x 2.1x 2.5x 8.9x 13.5x 12.2x 12.3x 97.7x 64.0x 58.4x 51.9x
Competitor C C.TO $27.22 $6,116 $6,722 6.1x 2.8x 6.9x 2.7x 7.5x 8.2x 5.0x 5.1x 106.0x 50.0x 40.7x 41.1x
Competitor D D.TO $16.78 $4,278 $4,606 6.3x 4.3x 5.7x 5.8x 15.3x 6.4x 12.4x 7.4x 115.1x 71.8x 60.4x 30.4x
Competitor E E.TO $13.99 $2,533 $2,952 3.7x 3.8x 4.2x 4.2x 15.5x 13.9x 13.2x 9.5x 101.0x 70.9x 44.3x 54.0x
Competitor F F.TO $26.37 $10,190 $11,025 3.3x 3.8x 6.4x 5.9x 11.9x 7.4x 5.0x 7.7x 103.6x 53.3x 69.1x 40.8x
Competitor G G.TO $22.48 $2,559 $2,349 7.8x 3.7x 6.5x 3.5x 8.7x 7.8x 8.1x 5.7x 101.6x 56.9x 57.9x 33.6x
Competitor H H.TO $17.68 $7,358 $7,215 3.2x 3.2x 5.2x 5.9x 7.7x 14.4x 7.9x 13.8x 112.2x 67.9x 48.2x 49.8x
Competitor I I.TO $13.80 $7,744 $7,376 3.9x 3.5x 2.9x 2.7x 10.5x 9.5x 9.0x 8.5x 99.5x 51.8x 49.7x 39.6x
Company A A $40.00 $2,228 $2,627 3.9x 3.5x 2.9x 2.7x 10.5x 9.5x 9.0x 8.5x 99.5x 51.8x 49.7x 39.6x
High $10,190 $11,025 7.8x 5.9x 6.9x 5.9x 15.5x 14.4x 13.2x 13.8x 115.1x 71.8x 69.1x 54.0x
Median $5,197 $5,664 4.4x 3.7x 5.5x 3.8x 9.7x 9.1x 8.5x 8.5x 101.5x 58.2x 49.7x 40.2x
Mean $5,352 $5,555 5.0x 3.9x 4.9x 4.0x 10.4x 9.9x 9.0x 9.1x 103.8x 59.8x 51.9x 41.7x
Low $2,228 $2,349 3.2x 2.8x 2.1x 2.5x 7.0x 6.4x 5.0x 5.1x 97.7x 50.0x 40.2x 30.4x
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Transaction
Opportunities
4
Valuation
3
Industry Overview
2
32. Searching for Value
Precedents Analysis
• (Which transactions did you select to value Company A? Why? What similarities exist between the target and Company A?)
• (In what ways would Company A command a higher TV if they were put in the position of a target? What competitive advantages does Company A have over
past transaction targets?)
• (How are the industry verticals classified relative to Company A and its strategy? Is there an identifiable trend over time regarding industry multiples? Are
they contracting or expanding? Why? What’s the secular driver within the industry?)
Target Buyer Transaction LTM EV/LTM
Company Type Company Type EV Date Year Impl. EV Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA
Company J New Company S Declining $82,730 July 26, 2017 2017 $7,802 $3,472 $1,604 2.2x 4.9x
Company K Growing Company T Stagnating $38,040 August 15, 2016 2016 $2,207 $1,666 $393 1.3x 5.6x
Company L Declining Company U Stagnating $74,220 March 27, 2015 2015 $56,913 $28,506 $7,916 2.0x 7.2x
Company M Declining Company V Stagnating $53,060 January 8, 2013 2013 $1,077 $709 $259 1.5x 4.2x
Company N Stagnating Company W Declining $36,520 July 1, 2010 2010 $5,098 $4,682 $2,580 1.1x 2.0x
Company O Growing Company X Declining $117,250 April 4, 2006 2006 $880 $1,641 $438 0.5x 2.0x
Company P Growing Company Y Growing $30,490 March 2, 2006 2006 $1,658 $82 $22 20.2x 75.3x
Company Q New Company Z Stagnating $79,150 June 26, 2004 2004 $1,938 $610 $120 3.2x 16.2x
Company R Growing Company AA Growing $80,760 October 1, 2002 2002 $2,037 $720 $256 2.8x 8.0x
Average 3.9x 13.9x
Company A 3.5x 9.5x
Precedent Transaction Rationale
Company Overview
1
Team Overview
5
Transaction
Opportunities
4
Valuation
3
Industry Overview
2
33. Searching for Value
Industry Overview Industry Spending
Business Model
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
421
Business Model Element 1:
Business Model Element 2:
Business Model Element 3:
Overarching Competitive Advantage: (What makes this part of their business model significant?
What is the competitive landscape like? What are they key industry themes and trends?)
• (e.g. Provide an example)
Industry Theme 1:
Industry Theme 2:
Industry Value Chain
34. Searching for Value
Industry Overview Industry Spending
Business Model
Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
421
Business Model Element 1:
Business Model Element 2:
Business Model Element 3:
Overarching Competitive Advantage: (What makes this part of their business model significant?
What is the competitive landscape like? What are they key industry themes and trends?)
• (e.g. Provide an example)
Industry Theme 1:
Industry Theme 2:
Industry Value Chain
35. Searching for Value
Business Model Element 1:
Business Model Element 2:
Business Model Element 3:
Overarching Competitive Advantage: (What makes this part of their business model significant?
What is the competitive landscape like? What are they key industry themes and trends?)
• (e.g. Provide an example)
Industry Theme 1:
Business Model
Industry Theme 2:
Industry Value Chain
Industry Overview
1
Company Overview
2
Financial Analysis
3
Recommendation
4
Editor's Notes
“ 1,000 key Grand Hyatt-managed hotel, 2,000 condominium hotelunits totaling approximately 2,232,000 square feet, a 75,000 square footcasino, 275,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space, 150,000 squarefeet of meeting and ballroom space” - http://greatlasvegascondos.com/cosmopolitan_construction_financing.htm
2,200 condo-hotel units or 2,000 units?
“Approximately 2,700 keys comprised of luxury condo-hotel units and hotel rooms with over 1,700 condo-hotel units offered for sale” - http://www.hotel-online.com/News/PR2005_2nd/Apr05_HyattCosmopolitan.html
“- Initial developer Ian Eichner exhausts project funding / defaults on construction loans of $760 million and enters foreclosure” - http://www.examiner.com/article/cosmopolitan-the-rocky-past-and-uncertain-future-of-the-newest-vegas-resort
- Confirmed at 760 with Bloomberg article
€500m write-off in 2009 (annual report 2010) ~ $750m
“ 1,000 key Grand Hyatt-managed hotel, 2,000 condominium hotelunits totaling approximately 2,232,000 square feet, a 75,000 square footcasino, 275,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space, 150,000 squarefeet of meeting and ballroom space” - http://greatlasvegascondos.com/cosmopolitan_construction_financing.htm
2,200 condo-hotel units or 2,000 units?
“Approximately 2,700 keys comprised of luxury condo-hotel units and hotel rooms with over 1,700 condo-hotel units offered for sale” - http://www.hotel-online.com/News/PR2005_2nd/Apr05_HyattCosmopolitan.html
“- Initial developer Ian Eichner exhausts project funding / defaults on construction loans of $760 million and enters foreclosure” - http://www.examiner.com/article/cosmopolitan-the-rocky-past-and-uncertain-future-of-the-newest-vegas-resort
- Confirmed at 760 with Bloomberg article
€500m write-off in 2009 (annual report 2010) ~ $750m