Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility

1. Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility
Implications for BART
April 4, 2016

2. Today’s Conversation
• What is the state of the
technology?
• How might our world change?
• What are the potential
implications for BART?

3. Today’s Conversation
• What is the state of the
technology?
• How might our world change?
• What are the potential
implications for BART?

4. Example
NHTSA Levels of Automation
Description
Level
Function-specific – Just one safety critical
function automated
1 Lane keeping automatically centers the vehicle
within the lane markings.

5. Example
NHTSA Levels of Automation
Description
Level
Function-specific – Just one safety critical
function automated
Combined function – Two safety critical
functions automated and coordinated
2
1 Lane keeping automatically centers the vehicle
within the lane markings.
Lane keeping and adaptive cruise control
maintain a vehicle’s speed and centering on the
roadway.

6. Example
NHTSA Levels of Automation
Description
Level
3
Function-specific – Just one safety critical
function automated
Combined function – Two safety critical
functions automated and coordinated
Limited self-driving – Full automation in some
situations
2
1 Lane keeping automatically centers the vehicle
within the lane markings.
Lane keeping and adaptive cruise control
maintain a vehicle’s speed and centering on the
roadway.
Autonomous driving is enabled on the highway,
but a human is present and able to take over
driving with sufficient transition

7. Example
NHTSA Levels of Automation
Description
Level
3
Function-specific – Just one safety critical
function automated
Combined function – Two safety critical
functions automated and coordinated
Limited self-driving – Full automation in some
situations
Full self-driving – Full automation in all road
conditions, human occupant optional
2
1
4
Lane keeping automatically centers the vehicle
within the lane markings.
Lane keeping and adaptive cruise control
maintain a vehicle’s speed and centering on the
roadway.
Autonomous driving is enabled on the highway,
but a human is present and able to take over
driving with sufficient transition
A self-driving taxi picks up workers for the
morning commute and delivers packages during
the day.

8. 2015
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1945
1940 2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
2005
1995
1985
1975
1965
1955

9. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
Early AI
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

10. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
1960s-70s:
Emerging Computer
Age
Early AI
1956: Coining of
the term “Artificial
Intelligence”
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

11. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
1998: Caltrans
Automated
Highway System
1960s-70s:
Emerging Computer
Age
Early AI
1956: Coining of
the term “Artificial
Intelligence”
1986: Founding of
UC Berkeley PATH
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

12. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
1998: Caltrans
Automated
Highway System
2004: First
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2005: Second
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2007: Urban
DARPA Grand
Challenge
1960s-70s:
Emerging Computer
Age
Early AI DARPA
1956: Coining of
the term “Artificial
Intelligence”
1986: Founding of
UC Berkeley PATH
2000:
Congressional
mandate
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

13. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
2012: Google
shares Steve
Mahan video
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
1998: Caltrans
Automated
Highway System
2004: First
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2005: Second
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2007: Urban
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2010: Google
announces Self-
Driving Car Project
1960s-70s:
Emerging Computer
Age
Early AI DARPA Google
1956: Coining of
the term “Artificial
Intelligence”
1986: Founding of
UC Berkeley PATH
2000:
Congressional
mandate
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

14. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
2012: Google
shares Steve
Mahan video
2013: Toyota
autonomous
concept car
2015: Nissan and
NASA autonomous
car partnership
2015: Uber
announces
self-driving
car program
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
1998: Caltrans
Automated
Highway System
2004: First
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2005: Second
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2007: Urban
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2010: Google
announces Self-
Driving Car Project
2014: Google
Self-Driving
Car prototype
2014: Tesla
predicts it will
sell first self-
driving car
1960s-70s:
Emerging Computer
Age
2015:
Mercedes-Benz
autonomous
concept car
2015: Delphi
car first to
cross the US
2015: Tesla
autopilot Level
2-3 software
update
Early AI Tech/Auto Company Race
DARPA Google
1956: Coining of
the term “Artificial
Intelligence”
1986: Founding of
UC Berkeley PATH
2000:
Congressional
mandate
2016: GM AV
Investments
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

15. 1980 2015
2010
2000
1960
2012: Google
shares Steve
Mahan video
2013: Toyota
autonomous
concept car
2015: Nissan and
NASA autonomous
car partnership
2015: Uber
announces
self-driving
car program
1939: Futurama
Exhibit
1998: Caltrans
Automated
Highway System
2004: First
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2005: Second
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2007: Urban
DARPA Grand
Challenge
2010: Google
announces Self-
Driving Car Project
2014: Google
Self-Driving
Car prototype
2014: Tesla
predicts it will
sell first self-
driving car
1960s-70s:
Emerging Computer
Age
2016: $4
billion US
DOT
autonomous
car
investment
2015:
Mercedes-Benz
autonomous
concept car
2015: Delphi
car first to
cross the US
2015: Tesla
autopilot Level
2-3 software
update
2016: NHTSA
consider
Google SDC
driver
Early AI Regulation
Tech/Auto Company Race
DARPA Google
1956: Coining of
the term “Artificial
Intelligence”
1986: Founding of
UC Berkeley PATH
2000:
Congressional
mandate
2016: GM AV
Investments
Proliferation of Automated Vehicle Technology
1940

16. Behind autonomous vehicle
R&D, we now have…
• Tens of thousands of
researchers and engineers
• Unprecedented computational
power
• Billions of dollars
• Market demand

17. By what year will autonomous vehicles be available for
consumers?
Today 2020 2025 2030 (+)

18. Where is transit?
Rail Automation Bus Automated Assist
Personal Rapid Transit
BART to OAK
Copenhagen Metro
WEPods (The Netherlands)
LUTZ Pathfinder (UK) Mobileye Shield Plus
EmX Precision Docking

19. Today’s Conversation
• What is the state of the
technology?
• How might our world change?
• What are the potential
implications for BART?

20. • More driving
• More sprawl
• Less equitable transportation
• More traffic congestion
• Hacked vehicles
• Public revenue drops
• Lost jobs
• More driving
• More sprawl
• Less equitable transportation
• More traffic congestion
• Hacked vehicles
• Public revenue drops
• Lost jobs
• Safer travel
• Smart infill
• Less parking
• Reclaimed road capacity
• Reduced traffic congestion
• More efficient transportation
• Greater mobility
Range of Implications with Autonomous Vehicles
Utopia
Dystopia

21. Potential Implications
• Tens of thousands of lives could be
saved and hundreds of thousands of
injury collisions avoided
• New ownership models could
dramatically decrease the number of
cars needed to achieve the same level
of mobility
• On-demand transportation could bring
affordable mobility to the disabled,
the elderly, and other less mobile
populations
Personal Transportation
?

22. Potential Implications
• Parking lots: redeveloped for other
uses
• Road space: reallocated for
pedestrians, bicyclists, and open space
• Garages and driveways: redesigned
for more residential, retail, and office
square footage
Built Environment

23. Potential Implications
• Safer transit systems
• Potential for point-to-point service
• Reduced operating costs
• Reimagining low capacity transit in
low density contexts
• Significant funding shifts
• Continued blurring of public and
private transportation services
Public Transportation

24. Today’s Conversation
• What is the state of the
technology?
• How might our world change?
• What are the potential
implications for BART?

25. Three major implications
for BART
1. Future mobility trends will present a
watershed moment for transportation
finance.
2. Autonomous vehicles will both
complement and compete with BART.
3. BART station area parking could be
redesigned.

26. Three major implications
for BART
1. Future mobility trends will present a
watershed moment for transportation
finance.
2. Autonomous vehicles will both
complement and compete with BART.
3. BART station area parking could be
redesigned.

27. Transportation Finance
1. The dwindling gas tax is already
threatening transportation finance.
2. While it seems implausible with
today’s full BART parking lots,
income from parking could diminish
as parking becomes unnecessary.

28. Transportation Finance
If personal vehicles are no longer owned
but shared…
• Every trip could incur a small fee
• Less sustainable modes/vehicles could
incur a larger fee
• Need for improved revenue sharing
mechanisms
• Insurance will become less expensive
• Labor could be refocused to customer
service over vehicle control and
operation

29. Three major implications
for BART
1. Future mobility trends will present a
watershed moment for transportation
finance.
2. Autonomous vehicles will both
complement and compete with BART.
3. BART station area parking could be
redesigned.

30. Complement, Compete
Autonomous vehicles could complement BART:
• Speed: BART will continue to beat congestion
• Parking: No longer be a relevant problem
• Shuttles: On-demand shuttles could become
significantly more efficient
• Affordability: Just as taxis are rarely used for
daily commuting today, so pay-per-use
autonomous vehicles will remain less practical
than rail commuting.
But for off peak directions and time periods,
autonomous vehicles could compete with BART

31. Three major implications
for BART
1. Future mobility trends will present a
watershed moment for transportation
finance.
2. Autonomous vehicles will both
complement and compete with BART.
3. BART station area parking could be
redesigned.

32. How could BART station areas adapt to self-driving cars?
BART system-wide parking
spaces: 46,636
Tabulating the footprint of
parking lots and garages, BART
parking spans 300 acres.
Comparison: Financial District
= 297 acres
What happens to all this land if
autonomous vehicles make
parking near obsolete?

33. BART Parking Worth
If self-driving cars eventually made parking obsolete,
how much money could BART earn selling parking land?
x
$6 billion
Square feet of BART parking per city
Average price per square foot per city
(In today’s dollars)

34. Case Study: North
Berkeley Station
• 800 parking spaces
• Ohlone Greenway
disconnected
• Unfriendly pedestrian
access for neighborhoods
• Ample curb space
surrounding station

35. Case Study: North
Berkeley Station
How much curb space would
you need to serve 800
vehicles per hour (or the
number of vehicles currently
accommodated with
parking)?

36. Case Study: North
Berkeley Station
Maximum curb space
Each space is the length of a
modern sedan and the
average dwell time is 2
minutes.
32 stalls, 790 feet of curb
would be needed to serve 800
vehicles per hour.

37. Case Study: North
Berkeley Station
Minimum curb space
Each space is the length of a
modern smart car and the
average dwell time is 30
seconds.
8 stalls, 160 feet of curb
would be needed to serve
800 vehicles per hour.

38. Case Study: North
Berkeley Station
• Parking could be redeveloped
• Ohlone Greenway could be
reconnected
• Some parking could even remain
Parking reimagined
Greenway reconnected
Passenger loading

39. The Future of Mobility
Active
On-demand
Autonomous

40. The Future of BART
• What you’re doing now is
complementary.
• Density will still matter.
• Rail will flourish as connecting
trips will become easier.
Nimble, informed agencies will be
the strongest.
Collaborations and new kinds of
partnerships will becoming
indispensable.

41. Thank you! Questions?