The rise and fall of nations.pdf

The Rise and Fall
of Nations
CHAPTER 1,2,3
By Group 01
Nguyen Thuy Duong, Nguyen Trung Hieu, Bach Thanh Tra, Nguyen Tran
Ngoc Son, Nguyen Duy Hung, Bui Thi Thu Hien, Ngo Minh Phuong

Intro-
duction
The book begins with ever-changing
situations of global economies during
modern crises.
In such an uncertain world, the author
suggests ten rules for spotting a country's
rise, decline, or stagnation, applicable to
both emerging and developed nations.
The rules are revealed and explained in
each chapter of the book
01

The ten rules are based on
2 principles
Past trends and predictions often
fail to hold true in an ever-
changing global landscape like
today.
Impermanence
Long-term forecasting is inefficient;
shorter predictions of five to ten
years is encouraged.
Future prediction
02

U.S Population Growth Rate (Source: marcotrend)
Chapter 1:
People Matter
Surprisingly
important factor in
growth:
Workforce and
Demographic
03

Population Growth Rate of some countries, colored by regions
(Source: gapminder)
04

2 percent
working-
population
pace
Women prioritize education and
pursuing a career, delaying childbirth
Delayed impact of aggressive birth
control policies
Lower Fertility Rate:
Advances in
healthcare &
science
Higher Life
Expectancy:
Lower Population Growth Rate
Increase birthrate
Bring more people into
the active workforce
05

Increasing
Birthrate
Baby Bonuses
Abandoning Previous
Attempts to Slow Down
Population Growth
Singapore (1987)
Australia (2005)
Chile (2013)
→Ineffective
Canada (1988)
France (2005)
Chinese one-child policy (2015)
→ unpredictable due to cultural lags &
sexual biases
06

Bringing
more
people into
the active
workforce
Freeing Forced Retirees
- Current retirement plans are no
longer sustainable → Needs
lower dependency rate
- However, work culture can't be
changed overnight
Encouraging Women
- Eliminate barriers and
promote equal opportunities for
women can lead to overall GDP
increases
Attracting Migrants
Varying migration policies
between countries
Homogenous populations (i.e.
Japan) face issues when
population declines
Retaining Talents
Roles of Robots
Attract talent from other
countries while limit talent drain
out of the country
Rise of robotics is likely to be
gradual enough to complement
the human workforce, rather
than completely destroying it.
07

01 03
02
A crisis prompts reform
Growth and Complacency
CHAPTER 2: The circle of lives
Is the nation ready to back a reformer?
The cyclical nature of political leadership
The natural circle of political life
A new crisis
08

Is the nation ready
to back a reformer?
Popular mood + the urgency of a
crisis play a critical role in driving
the circle of life
The impact of politics on an
economy depends on the nation's
readiness to back a reformer.
The position on the circle of life determines whether a nation is more likely to change
for the better or worse.
Successful reformers: usually fresh leaders with a mass base of support
Stale leaders contribute to a turn for the worse
Democratic leaders have a higher probability of implementing sustained reforms
→take credit for economic growth and become complacent
09

Fresh
leaders 01
Facing a crisis of national
status and a fear of losing
ground to global rivals.
02
Campaigning on promises to
address these concerns and
implementing certain reforms
10
Crises create opportunities for fresh leaders
e.g. Stagflation in the 1970s and the Asian
financial crisis in the late 1990s created a
sense of urgency and a willingness for
change among the public.
Common characteristics of reformers
Despite controversies, the reforms brought dynamism to
stagnating economies: economic growth, rising per capita
incomes, reduced debts and falling inflation...
Positive impact of reforms
Contribute to "the rise of the rest"
Change in mindset due to crises
Crises result from major shocks or a long-term loss of economic
stature →reforms not solely driven by external pressure but also
by the urgency and demands for change from their own people.

Stale leaders
Leaders run out of ideas or
lose popularity
Leaders who cling to power
beyond their term limits
Reasons for staleness
Protests tend to target aging and
complacent regimes that fail to
keep up with economic challenges
The stock markets sense the
decay of reform as regimes age,
turning against seated leaders
11
A pattern emerges among
post-crisis transitions: Reform
most likely under bold new
leaders, but less likely as time
passes and leaders focus on
securing their legacy or
rewarding personal
connections
High-impact reform is most
likely in a leader's first term, less
likely in the second term, and
unlikely beyond the second term

CONCLUSION
Leaders who retire after a
successful run tend to secure
a respected place in history.
However, many leaders seek to
extend their tenure by
removing term limits or
switching offices, which often
leads to controversy.
Stale leaders
12

13
Technocrats
Technocrats lack political skills and struggle to sell
reforms to the public.
Possess the knowledge and expertise for
economic reform and growth.
Technocrats can be more successful when advising
autocratic leaders in authoritarian states.
Technocrats can cause harm when they disregard
local sentiment and impose reforms that may sound
smart in theory but are unpopular in practice.
Argentina: technocratic reforms led to economic decline.
Some nations, like Japan and Italy, still resist major reforms due
to their relative wealth and lack of external pressure.
China's manipulation of economic data raises concerns about
the credibility of its technocratic governance.
01
02
03

14
Autocrats v/s Democrats
Autocrats
Democracies
Can achieve rapid economic growth by forceful projects
Lack checks and balances
Have a higher likelihood of long-term stagnation and economic volatility
Often become predatory defenders of the status quo, hindering
economic development and property rights
- Pros:
- Cons:
Offer regular elections →fresh leadership and responsiveness to
popular demands for change
Term limits prevent stale leadership and corruption →stable growth.
Democracies' stabilizing effect shows better long-term growth prospects
and higher per capita income compared to autocracies.
Strong growth spells have been evenly distributed between the two, though authoritarian
regimes are more prone to extreme swings between high and low growth.

The richest person in every continent (How Much, 2017)
CHAPTER 3:
GOOD BILLIONAIRES,
BAD BILLIONAIRES
15

Does inequality
threaten growth?
+ Was one of the most unequal societies in Latin America
+ Supporters propose: higher spending to help the poor,
higher corporate taxes for free university education.
Consequences:
+ Corporate investors dramatically cut back investments in
Chile
+ GDP growth slowed to less than 3 percent from an
average of near 6 percent.
President Michelle Bachelet of Chile Africa, Pakistan, Philippines
Fought inequality with specific policies:
+ IN AFRICA: redistributing property from the old white elite to
the black majority.
+ IN PAKISTAN: placing caps on private land ownership,
nationalizing industries in finance, energy and manufacturing.
+ IN PHILIPPINES: handing out land to tenant farmers,
increasing welfare spending.
ALL LEAD TO ECONOMIC SETBACKS AND VARIOUS PROBLEMS
16

Higher
corporate
taxes
Ban
foreign
investors
Ramp up
the size of
government
Wasteful
subsidies
Seize
private
businesses
What
happened?
“Self-destructive populism”
The efforts to redistribute wealth against
inequality will propel governmental policies
that intimidate corporate investment, thus
encumbering economic growth
Intimidate investors
A country needs to pursue 2 goals:
redistributing the pie while growing it at the
same time
17
Demagogues rise to power

Does Inequality always
threaten growth?
If a billionaire is bad: getting richer by
lobbying, inherited wealth,...
18
Only when: the population turns
suspicious of bad wealth creation.
Resentment from public, and new efforts to
redistribute wealth.
The importance of tracking bad billionaires

Indication of Economy #1:
Scale of billionaire wealth
10%
19
average billionaire
wealth/GDP worldwide
Danger to the economy
15% 10%
Healthy economy
Examples: Russian (16%),
Malaysia (15%), Taiwan
(16%), Sweden (21%)
Examples: Poland, South
Korea, and Australia (5-
6%), Japan (2%)

Rent-seeking industries
Commodity industries that involve
digging natural resources.
Construction, real estate, gambling,
mining, steel, aluminum and other
metals, oil, gas, ...
Try to win over regulators and politicians.
Industries that make good contributions
to economic growth or make popular
consumer products (phones, cars)
Technology, manufacturing, telecoms and
retail, pharmaceuticals, ecommerce, and
entertainment,
Good industries
MOST LIKELY to generate national
backlashes against wealth creation
MOST likely to generate national
backlashes against wealth creation
The Good VS Bad Billionaires
20
The balance of power between good has shifted 3 times within 15 years:
India, China, Brazil - the revival of good billionaires: India from 31% - 53%
Rusia, Mexico, Turkey - the entrenchment of bad billionaires
Because: vast swings in commodity prices during certain economic events

Bad billionaires often arise through family empires, particularly in the
emerging world, where weaker institutions make it easier for old families to
cultivate corrupt political ties
21
Share of Inherited wealth
Various range of shares of inherited billionaires worldwide:
Over 65% in Sweden,
Germany, and France.
Over 30% in the US and
Britain 14 percent in Japa
Developed countries:
80% in South Korea.
Over 50% in India, Indonesia,
and Turkey
1% in China and 0% in Russia
Emerging countries:

What to note?
1
THEY ARE NOT
HARD DATA
Not in the same line as objective data like credit or
investment growth or current account numbers.
A loose filter, anecdotally telling evidence for whether nations
are generating wealth from.
2
INTEGRITY OF BILLIONAIRES
IS THE MOST IMPORTANT
INDICATOR
Even with unusually large shares of wealth, billionaires can still
make a positive contribution to growth if their wealth is
concentrated in productive companies.
Often, in emerging nations, a low share of bad billionaires can
still make up for weak scores on the other metrics.
23

How does
inequality
kill growth?
Argument 1: Marginal
propensity to consume
As incomes rise, the rich spend a smaller share of their additional income—and
save more of it.
= growth in total consumer spending slows, economy slows
Argument 2: Historical
data - Spotting change
“Inequality may impede growth at least in part because it calls forth efforts to
redistribute that themselves undercut growth
E.g. The Greek debt crisis
risky financial speculation
conspicuous consumption.
ship money offshore.
BOOM PERIOD: More wealth
concentration to the rich for:
CRISIS PERIOD:
Creditors and citizens unwwilling to
bear out the brunt for a government
crippled by the irrresponsible rich.
25
Consequences: Magnify the impact of the financial crises that arise in the
closing stages of strong growth spells.

Bad Billionaires and the
Meddling State
HIGH LEVELS OF
CORRUPTION BRINGS
HIGHER INEQUALITY
1
2
26
INEQUALITY IS
STRONGLY LINKED TO
“BLACK ECONOMY”
Jobs in the black economy are often poorly paid, with no benefits, on deadend career paths.
Bad billionaires are the kings of this shady realm.
Definition: Where owners conduct their business in cash and off the books, to evade taxes.
Over 35% GDP: Brazil, the Philippines, Russia, Thailand, and Peru
Breed inequality and social resentment, since:
In India: Tax dodging at the top creates a strong disincentive for citizens to pay up =
perpetuate tax evasion

THE RISE AND
FALL OF NATIONS
FORCES OF CHANGE IN THE POST CRISIS WORLD
WORLD HISTORY
GROUP 2
CHAPTER 4 - CHAPTER 7

Group Members
Bùi Hoài Trang
ID: 2013140021
Nguyễn Ngọc Lan Nhi
ID: 2011140213
Nguyễn Minh Anh
ID: 2012140006
Đinh Quốc Huy
ID: 2013140009
Nguyễn Huy Phúc
ID: 2015140203
Nguyễn Nam Vương
ID: 2013140023

TABLE OF
CONTENT
CHAPTER 4
CHAPTER 5
CHAPTER 6
CHAPTER 7
PERILS OF THE STATE
FACTORIES FIRST
THE PRICE OF ONIONS
THE GEOGRAPHIC SWEET SPOT

A Shift in
Perception
Some emerging nations did not share the
enthusiasm.
In India, bureaucratic problems associated with state
capitalism were seen as hindrances.
Evidence after the global financial crisis in
2008
Losses in emerging markets, Decrease in market value and
Declining profitability of State companies
Distributing job and subsidizing
Providing easy credit through state banks
Making appointments based on political connections
rather than competence
Response and management of state
companies
Initial enthusiasm for state capitalism
Raises doubts and skepticism!
Whether this perspective is more
effective when compared to free-
market economies?
Back to Agenda

Brazil Argentina Poland Saudi Arabia Russia Turkey South Korea Taiwan
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Government
Spending
and its Impact
Responsible and balanced government
spending is crucial for sustainable economic
growth
Imbalance/excessive spending harms the
economy
Government spending patterns of various emerging nations
The role of global market pressure in
forcing governments to make necessary
spending cuts when it becomes
unsustainable

Protect and maintain popularity in times
crisis
Make-work projects, creating jobs, or artificially lowering
prices.
Accumulated debts incurred
Borrowing from the future, leading to increased deficits and
debt burdens.
Wasteful and lead to declining
productivity
More debt is needed to generate the same level of economic
growth.
Shift from private to public investment
Excessive spending delays necessary investments for future
growth.
Consenquences Excessive
Spending
France
Greece
Excessive government
spending contributed
to its debt crisis
Heavy taxes force
businesses leaving
the country

Success of Asian economies was a combination of
state support in the early stages and subsequent
reduction in state interference.
Misreading the
Lessons of China
China's economic
rise began when
the state started
to reduce
interference in the
economy.
Output of private
companies in China
surpassed that of
state companies
Private industry
became more
dynamic.

The Political Abuse
of State Banks
Role of state banks: State banks play a significant role in the
banking sector of many emerging nations, controlling a substantial
portion of banking assets.
Inefficiency Leading to negative outcomes in the
credit system and overall economic
growth.
Political interference Exhibit underemployed staff and
unnecessary bureaucracy
Not accurately
anticipate market
conditions
Misallocations of resources and
negative outcomes.
Misguided use of
state-owned
companies
Reduced investment, worsening
shortages, and wasteful
consumption.
Job creation and
government
employment
Some politicians view state-owned
companies as job-creating entities,
resulting in inflated government
employment.

China's State Tobacco Company
Employs half a million people
Accounts for 43 percent of cigarette sales worldwide
The nation’s state tobacco company alone:
The company is allowed to sponsor elementary schools,
where its banners proclaim, “Tobacco helps you become
talented.”
“Tobacco helps you
become talented”
A banner of the company proclaimed

02 03 04 05 06
Limited formal
authority and
inadequate
spending.
Too-Small
Government
01
Lack of
essential
conditions,
creating a sense
of fragility.
Risk of civil
war and
prolonged
economic
decline.
The black
economy,
fueled by tax
evasion
Weak tax
collection
hampers
investment,
efficient capital
allocation.
Pressure to
raise revenue
result in
ineffectiveness
and adverse
outcomes

Consequences
global warming
inflation
encourage smuggling
widen income and wealth inequality in
poor countries
Negative trend vs positive trend
THERE IS NO
FREE GAS
“The most self-defeating aspect of
the government's involvement in
the economy is energy subsidies”

Way to judge how well the state is
managing the private sector
observe good vs bad privatization
competitive global companies flourish
under the rule of sensible laws laws
All in all, the approach — refusing either to
privatize or to protect state monopolies—is
the worst possible combination for the
government’s finances.
The Fifty Shades of
Meddling in Private
Companies

Anyone who has experience on the ground in emerging
nations will tell you, however, that when the state is
investing wisely and moving toward creating predictable
and stable rules, good things are more likely to happen.
A Sensible
Role for the
State
What to watch?
government spending as a share
of GDP (to spot the real outliers,
and check on whether the
spending is going to productive
investment or giveaways.)
whether the government is using
state companies and banks as
tools to artificially pump up
growth and contain inflation, and
whether it is choking or
encouraging private businesses.
Add Company Name

CHAPTER 5
The Geographic
Sweet Spot

Is the nation
making the
most of its
location?
DUBAI CASE STUDY
Dubai has leveraged its geographic location to become a thriving
commercial hub, embracing industries such as shipping, travel,
information technology, and financial services. The city's diverse
population benefits from enforced tolerance and religious freedom,
attracting significant international flows of money.
A desert location can thrive economically through a combination of geographic
advantage, open policies, and proactive efforts to connect with the world and
neighboring regions.

Geopolitical factors, such as the failure of international
negotiations to cut import tariffs and address other trade
barriers, have also contributed to the slowdown.
The shift in China's economy, which has reduced its
imports and started producing more of the parts it needs
domestically.
Countries have implemented protectionist measures and
formed regional alliances.
Ties to
the World

Advantages such as port cities on major Atlantic trade routes and
monarchies that respected property rights.
= Western European nations (Britain and the Netherlands)
surpassed Asian and Latin American rivals in the 16th century.
Physical goods dominate global trade flows ($18 trillion annually)
compared to services and capital ($4 trillion each).
Southeast Asia, led by Vietnam and Cambodia, and Eastern
Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) have emerged
as manufacturing hubs thanks to their strategic locations.
Vietnam's export growth has been extraordinary, with its global
share soaring fivefold to reach 1% since 2000.
Vietnam's engagement in trade agreements such as the Trans-
Pacific Partnership is anticipated to fuel its GDP growth by more
than 10% in the next decade.
Is it Partly
the Luck of
Location?
We can see the historical growth
patterns and the importance of
geography in economic development

East Asia ASEAN South Asia East African Mexico
Ties to the Neighbors
European Union
Started with 6
members
- now 28
members
Trade between
East Asian nations
drove sustained
growth rates
of over 6%.
Significant
regional trade
growth.
Exports
increased by
20% each year,
especially to
China.
Holds potential
for new trade
ties to drive
growth with
5% of trade
within the
region
The East African
Community has
grown exports
while African and
South American
trade
organizations
have struggled.
Mexico's
achievements
in NAFTA and
the Pacific
Alliance show
the value of
regional
relationships
and broad
trade treaties.

History after
World War II
Japan and China used low-cost labor to
create a Pacific trade route to Europe and
the US
Asia was regaining its economic center of
gravity - McKinsey Company.
Nations can reshape global trade routes
to their advantage with the right policies
and political will.
Geography Is Not Destiny
China has created major man-made ports and trade routes.

South-South trade Doubled to 25% of global exports.
Labor cost Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh have
attracted manufacturing firms. (due to
lower labor costs, existing trade routes,
and open policies)
Emerging nations' export production costs
average 5% labor.
East-West route China's $60 billion East-West route
connecting South America's coasts reshapes
isolated regions' geographic destinies.
The New Silk Road plan Includes domestic silk roads and rail links
between provinces and nearby nations.
Extra information:
Colombia
Their $55 billion infrastructure development
plan will connect inland cities and beaches to
global commerce routes.
China's global impact is shown via
the New Silk Road and domestic silk roads.
Geography Is
Not Destiny

Second Cities
Thailand faces the challenge of
imbalanced population distribution
Leaders must bring their poorest areas into global commerce
to maximize geographical advantages.
Bangkok
Chiang Mai
The second-largest city
of Thailand
1 million people
(1/10 of Bangkok)
Capital city of Thailand
10 million people
This lopsided ratio is unusual for countries with a population of 20
million to 100 million or more.
In 15 major emerging countries of similar population size, the
largest city typically outnumbers the second city by three to one
(3:1).

19 cities in China have
transformed from small
towns to metropolises
with populations
exceeding 1m.
= Achieving a more balanced population distribution can foster economic growth and promote overall development.
13 US cities have
seen population
growth, including
Las Vegas
500,000 - 2.5m
Bangkok's 15%
population
contributes 40%
of Thailand's
GDP.
Paris has a
population 7x
larger than Lyon,
and accounts for
30 percent of the
economy.
India has limited
development of second-tier
cities, with only two towns
having populations over 1m.
Second Cities

The
Service Cities
The rise of cities along trade routes is now
accompanied by the emergence of cities at
the center of service industries.
The internet was intended to spread service
jobs globally, but banking, insurance, and
law are consolidating in approximately 15
global cities, led by New York and London.

Busan (South Korea), Manila (Philippines), and Dubai (UAE),
have become centres for various industries, making them
desirable places to live and work.
Attract companies and talent in specific
service niches.
Polish second cities like Krakow and Wroclaw are becoming global
service and manufacturing hubs.
Morocco and Rwanda are export successes in Africa.
The Rise of Lesser Cities
Poland, China, Mexico, and Colombia are leveraging their
advantageous positions to foster trade and attract investments.
Geographic location still plays a significant role in
economic growth
The
Service Cities
However, location alone is not enough.
Countries must implement favorable policies to
transform their cities into commercially attractive magnets.

The importance of investment for economic growth.
Manufacturing is highlighted as a vital sector for emerging
economies, driving job creation and innovation
The creation of private enclaves in developing countries
by wealthy individuals to distance themselves from
societal issues
Excessive investment is cautioned against, with more of
the investment starting to flow toward unproductive
targets can lead to major slowdown after
Is investment
rising or
falling as a
share of the
economy?

Manufacturing drives economic growth through
infrastructure investments and export revenues.
The Virtuous Cycle
of Manufacturing
Began from a low
base and focused on
investing in
productive assets
like factories, roads,
and bridges for
several decades.
Invested a lot in
factories but didn't get
much results after it
collapsed. State-
directed investments
in specific industries
have proved
uncompetitive
globally.
Investment as a
share of the
economy was high,
but it did not go into
manufacturing.

With globalization and advancements in
technology, services can contribute
significantly to economic output and job
creation.
Most new service jobs in emerging
countries are still in traditional sectors,
like roadside repairs and small-scale
barbershops.
Emphasizing the difficulties in moving
from agriculture to services due to skill
requirements and a lack of employment
prospects for the urban middle class.
The Service
Escalator

The increasing number of potential manufacturing
powers has made it harder for established export
manufacturers to retain customers.
The global manufacturing sector has been shrinking,
and rich countries are implementing measures to prevent
unfair competition
Advanced technology is replacing human labor with
smart robots, making it difficult for emerging nations to
replicate the success of Asian miracle economies.
Developed nations, led by the United States, are ahead in
advanced manufacturing techniques and are
experiencing a revival in manufacturing
Germany, in particular, has been successful in expanding
its manufacturing exports by implementing labor cost
restraints and making strategic investments in other
countries.
It’s Tough to
Get on the
Escalator

The significance of manufacturing in
insulating economies from various threats and
driving economic growth
Thailand's manufacturing sector accounted
for a significant portion of its GDP, enable it to
increase its share of global exports and
maintain a low unemployment rate.
Recent political reforms and focus on
preventing political opponents from returning
to power have raised concerns about the future
of Thailand's manufacturing machine.
The Stabilizing
Effect of Factories

Emerging countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and
Israel have experienced technological booms, leading
to globally competitive companies.
Benefits include increased productivity, improved
living standards, and fostering innovation.
While these booms can lead to collapses, they also
leave behind valuable infrastructure and technologies
that contribute to long-term economic growth.
The Rare Tech
Booms

The manner of investment and
financing during a speculative
binge determines the severity of
the subsequent crisis.
High debt levels can paralyze
the credit system and result in
prolonged economic
slowdowns.
The collapse of the real estate bubble in 2008
serves as a powerful reminder of the
consequences.
Real estate
speculation, driven
by surging prices,
can lead to poor
investment
activities.
The Bad Binges: Real Estate

Heavy investment in commodity industries, such as oil, can
have negative implications for economic development
The curse of oil or Dutch disease often emerges, as elites
prioritize securing profits rather than investing in infrastructure
and diversifying industries.
This reliance on commodities undermines local industries and
makes countries vulnerable to price fluctuations.
In contrast, investment in manufacturing and diversification
leads to stable and sustainable growth.
The Curse of
Commodities

This pattern has led to real estate bubbles
in various countries, and China's
experience highlights the risks of credit
and investment bubbles going hand in
hand.
Shifts from productive investments like
factories and technologies to bad ones like
real estate and stocks mark the beginning
of a problematic phase.
As economic growth reaches its late
stages, the quality of investments tends to
decline.
When Good
Binges Go Bad

Insufficient investment can lead to stagnation,
inadequate infrastructure, and weak economic
growth.
Countries with low investment levels struggle to
maintain vital public infrastructure, leading to
problems like traffic congestion and inflation.
Adequate investment allocation towards
manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure is
crucial for sustained growth.
The Opposite of
a Binge Is the
Blahs

Nations with strong long run growth always reinvest a large share of
national income
Is inflation high or low?
Chapter 7
high inflation accompanies high growth, exemplified by China and Korea
but is it true?
India’s high inflation: rising prices of common foodstuffs

The Cancer That Kills Growth
Chapter 7
Low inflation
Large share of GDP invested in strong supply network
Every economy with strong long-term growth → common features

Victory in the War on Inflation
Chapter 7
Consumer price index peaked 15% in 1974
Since 1991 average 2%
Triple digits inflation in Brazil, Russia, Turkey
Since 2002 inflation in developing countries ~ 6%
Majority of countries won against inflation
Emerging world victory against inflation: transformative

High food price → democratization
and more liberal regimes
High food price → crippling
consequences for ruling powers
Beating inflation brings political
and economic stability
Vi
ctory in the
War on
Inflation

The market effect of globalization
Price doesn’t rise as easily now because business can always
import / outsource cheaper goods from abroad
How Victory Was Won, and
Sustained

What we had done right
How Victory
Was Won,
and
Sustained
Gov spending responsibility
and accountability
Leaders invest wisely into
supply networks, and
embezzle less
Central bank independence
→ stop easy money populist
policy, set inflation target
Add Company Name

How Turkey Won the War, for
a While
Leaders who don’t understand basic economics
States that meddle too much and invest too
little
Turkey is the example of

Inflation was baked into the Turkish
political system
How Turkey
Won the
War, for a
While
1.Parliament dominated by fragile,
shifting coalitions of parties
Populist spending promises
Huge defense budget brings
about a comforting sense of
security
2. Commonly used tactics
3.Insufficient budget → State
forced central bank to print money
Add Company Name

Low growth, high inflation,
supply shortage
Political instability: one new
government every 9 months
Consequences
a While

2002-2011 2011
a While
Emergency loan from IMF → must
comply to IMF’s demands
Erdogan
achieved great
results
Erdogan became
complacent, sign
of trouble
appeared

India Belatedly
Joins the Fight
PM Singh’s
first term: a
rosy outlook
PM Singh’s
second term: a
thorny future Luckily India
managed to
quelled the
inflation calamity

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Those swings disappeared after
1933
Sharp and frequent swing between
periods of rising and falling prices
Since then, inflation trend was
mostly unbroken until 2010s
Good and
Bad
Deflation

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Deflation has a very bad
reputation (see: Japan)
Not all deflation cycles originate
from demand
Not all deflation periods are bad
Difficult to identify good and bad
deflation
Good and
Bad
Deflation

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Housing or stock market crash will depress the economy
because when those asset prices fall sharply, real wealth is
lost
→ Market crashes can trigger
periods of bad deflation
Consumer
Prices Aren’t
the Whole
Story

Consumer Prices Aren’t the Whole
Story
Many long runs of economic growth
ended in a house price bust
be on alert
housing prices grow faster than the
economy

FED’s argument: No rise in CPI means no
risk of inflation
Stocks, bonds and houses valuation are at
all time high
Many now fear Japan style depression
→ FED keeps rate near zero, everyone
follows suit → easy money policies for a
long time
Consumer
Prices Aren’t
the Whole
Story

Consumer Prices Aren’t the Whole
Story
Deflation is not necessarily bad, so do
not overreact lest we cause high
inflation
Inflation is bad
Good public investment is crucial to
a growing economy Inflation is not mere CPI
Government plays an important role
Key takeaway

“Watching the price of stocks and
houses is as important as tracking
the price of onions“
Consumer
Prices Aren’t
the Whole
Story

THE RISE AND FALL
OF NATIONS:
PRESENTED BY GROUP 7
Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World
-Ruchir Sharma-
CHAPTER 08 – CHAPER 11

TABLE OF CONTENTS
-08-
CHEAP IS GOOD
-09-
THE KISS OF DEBT
-10-
THE HYPE WATCH
-11-
THE GOOD, THE AVERAGE,
AND THE UGLY
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Previous

CHEAP IS GOOD
How the sensitivity to “cheap is good” affected an economy?
-Chapter 8-
Next
Previous

WHY CHEAP IS JUST A FEELING
■ The process of measuring the value of currencies is much
more nebulous than it appears
■ Most common measure: The Real Effective Exchange rate
(REER)
■ Getting a feel for the value of currencies is an unavoidably
subjective exercise.
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Previous

DOES DEGLOBALIZATION CHANGE THE RULE?
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Previous
Though we live in a highly
interconnected world, growth in global
trade flows has slowed quite abruptly
With global trade stagnating, it may be
getting tougher for any country to
keep its current account in balance by
earning export income and easier to
fall into crisis.

THE RETURN OF THRIFT
AN EMERGING “SAVINGS GLUT”
THE REVIVAL OF NATIONAL
SAVINGS IN CURRENT ACCOUNT
STABILITY
2 of the most important of glut contribution:
slower growth in the emerging world and the
related slump in commodity prices
If nations are consuming more than they
produce, running up a current account deficit,
they are effectively cutting into savings
Many countries are relying less on strangers
overseas to finance their spending habits

FOLLOW
THE LOCAL
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THE FIRST TO KNOW
TELLTALE SIGN WHEN LOCAL
MONEY EXITING IN BIG AMOUNT
The local will be the first one to move
Locals begin draining their bank accounts at home,
moving cash to other countries and employing other
exit channels

WHEN MONEY FLOWS, FLASH A GREEN LIGHT

Sign of a turnaround
- Is when the current account
rebounds from deficit into
surplus.
- The crisis is passing, and the
economy can dust itself off and
start growing again.
Avoid artificially stable
financial environment
- Only suitable for short term
purposes, easy to be in crisis
- Case: Asia 1999
Next
Previous
WHEN MONEY FLOWS, FLASH A GREEN LIGHT

YOU CAN’T DEVALUE YOUR
WAY TO PROSPERITY
None managed to gain any lasting advantage!
“The less developed an economy
is, the more sensitive it is to
“cheap is good”.

The Kiss
of Debt
The dangers of high levels of debt and how it
can negatively impact economies
-Chapter 9-
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Previous

The size of the debt
The pace of increasing the debt
• Borrowers and lenders get caught up in a credit mania
🡪 Boom in borrowing by the private sector
• The precursor of the crises: domestic private credit grows faster than the economy for a
significant length of time
• reflect the overoptimistic mood and increasingly bad lending and
borrowing decisions
The indicators of the coming crises
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Previous

The sign for the begin of the cycle
The sign for end of the cycle
• Threshold: private credit hit the 40% point of the GPD - point of no return
🡪 financial crisis, sharp slowdown in economy within the next five years
🡪 A country in which private credit has been growing much faster than the economy for five
years should be placed on watch for a sharp slowdown in the economic growth rate and
possibly for a financial crisis as well, because lending is running out of control.
• If private credit grows significantly slower than GDP for five years
running, it can create the conditions for an economy to recover strongly.
The indicator of the coming crises
Next
Previous

The Private sectors leads, the States follows
Private
sector:
the origin
of debt
mania
Next
Previous
innovation boosts econ growth
productivity growth slows down
business continue to borrow because they believe in the
growth of demand
banks make mistakes, subprime lender unqualified
borrower crowds the market
CB increase price of money to slow down excesses, debt of
bankrupt owner turn into government’s book
Increase
Government’s
debt

Video: The debt explosion in China
Source: visualcapitalist.com

The hype watch
How praise and ignorance of media affected an economy?
-Chapter 10-
Next
Previous

—Cambridge Dictionary
Hype is a situation in which
something is advertised and
discussed in newspapers, on
television, etc. a lot in order to
attract everyone's interest
Next
Previous

The most-loved nations by the media
The most-hated nations by the media
will rarely have the best economic
prospects in the next five to ten years.
when it passed its crisis, joined the rank of
next successful emerging countries.
2 rules
Next
Previous

Emerging economies
The fact proved that
Asian nations started to take off
negative signs with Latin America’s
economy in 2 decades later
Pay lots of attention to
Latin America with abundant natural
resources and little to Asia (with rare
resources)
When they did notice
put attention on 2 nations with natural
resources blamed other countries in Asia.
Next
Previous

Group hype
would rise, ending
the econ
dominance of US
(this nearly
became the fact)
Myth of mass
“convergence”
helped trigger a
boom after 2002
despite the fact
that long growth is
improbable in any 1
country.
Combination
of forces
Between 2005 -
2010, 107 countries
belonging to
emerging world rose
with equal average
income as US’s
Hype started
to skyrocket
due to global capital
flows and trade ebbed,
and commodity prices
started to weaken,
higher growth rate of
pop. in 2010
Growth started
to slow
Next
Previous

The Case for
Constant Vigilance
• Many economies faced with the situation of
slowing to a more normal pace of growth.
• Slowdowns can be severe enough to drag newly
rich countries back to the middle-income ranks.
• More nations on average fall back to a lower
income level than advance to a higher one
• But in any five-year economic cycle, the story
can change completely due to new tech and
new leaders.
Next
Previous

Example: Russia
(for Commodity economy)
accounts for only 10% of Russian GDP
but half of exports and a third of
government revenue
Oil
President Putin was celebrated on
magazine covers as “the most powerful
man in the world”
Before oil prices plunged
Russia was already falling behind
the West in average income.
After the end of a trend
Next
Previous

“By the time a story reaches the cover of Time or
Newsweek, it’s
DEAD!”
Next
Previous
• Time cover was downbeat - econ growth picked
up over the next five years in 55% of the cases.
• Time’s cover spin was upbeat - the economy
slowed down over the next five years in 66% of
the cases.

Reasons
Market researchers, academics
major institutions
Tendency to hype the prospect of a
hot economy (journalists followed
their list and wrote articles)
1
Media – “global
opinion makers”
attracting more foreign capital than the
country can handle national leaders
are too complacent to keep reform
Next
Previous
2

Chapter 1-10:
A quick
summary
Next
Previous

They are factors that have contributed to the rise
and fall of different nations over time
What’s the relation?
Next
Previous

Economic growth - the paramount factor determining nation’s
fates
Sustained economic growth is challenging, but it is NOT
IMPOSSIBLE
Countries that are able to achieve sustained growth
= potential to become global economic powers.
Sustained growth requires:
- Conducive environment: strong political institutions, a robust
educational system, a sound financial sector, and a competitive
business environment
- Demographic factors: a large and young workforce
CHAPTER 1: PEOPLE MATTER
Next
Previous

CHAPTER 2: THE CIRCLE OF LIFE
To much debt
|
High interest
expenses
+
Stifling investment
Debt
Aging population
+
Low birth rates
+
Restrictive
immigration policies
Labor force
Poor management,
+
Weak institutions
+
Lack of competition
and innovation
Productivity
Reduces social
mobility
+
Lead to political
instability
Inequality
Next
Previous
04 headwinds constrain sustainable economic growth

CHAPTER 3: GOOD BILLIONAIRES,
BAD BILLIONAIRES
Next
Previous
of sustainable
economic growth
Building institutions
+
Human development
+
Competition
+
Innovation
essential for growth
Political stability
+
Infrastructure development
+
Promotion of international trade
-FACTORS-
-FACTORS-

CHAPTER 4: PERILS OF THE STATE
Promoting transparency
Balancing regulation and
market freedom
Ensuring accountability for
successful economic
outcomes
**
* ***
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Previous
Negative impact of weak, corrupt, or ineffective state institutions on a nation's
economy
= The importance of wise state investment and stable rules, striking a
sensible balance for private enterprises to flourish.

CHAPTER 5: THE GEOGRAPHIC SWEET SPOT
Political instability
+
Corruption
+
Populist policies
Hinder growth Boost growth
Next
Previous
Role of politics and government policies in shaping
economic growth prospects
Sound economic policies
+
Market liberalization
+
Targeted investment

CHAPTER 6: FACTORIES FIRST
Role of investment in economic development and highlights the significance of
manufacturing for emerging economies
Competitive business environment
+ Promoting innovation
+ Removing regulatory barriers
= Enhance growth prospects
Nation’s choice 2
Incremental improvements or
process innovation.
Nation’s choice 1
Prioritizing technological
progress
Next
Previous
How different nations approach innovation?

Open complexities of inflation and
deflation in the context of economic
growth
Negative consequences of inflation
|
How it erodes purchasing power and
creates instability
+
Cautions against overreacting to
deflation
CHAPTER 7: THE PRICES OF ONION
Next
Previous

Chapter 8-9-10
Chapter 10: The hype watch
Love from the media can destroy the economy
its indifference is good for econ growth
Chapter 8: Cheap is good
The less developed an economy is, the
more sensitive it is to “cheap is good”
Chapter 9: The Kiss of Debt
If private credit has been growing much faster than
the economy for five years, the country would
possibly suffer from debt crisis
Next
Previous

The ten chapters are interconnected through the author's exploration
of the multifaceted factors that affect economic growth and highlights
the importance of considering non-economic factors when assessing a
country's prospects for sustained growth
Next
Previous

The Good, the
Average and
the Ugly
-Chapter 11-
Next
Previous

Let’s relax with some “very
small” questions:
According to Ruchir Sharma, which economic growth level is
the US?
A. The Good
B. The Ugly
C. The Average
Next
Previous

Next
Previous
United States highlight criteria
CRITERIA IMPACT
Good Billionaires,
Bad Billionaires
Most are “good billionaires”—not family scions but
self-made entrepreneurs
Positive
People Matter
US remains a magnet for economic migrants than
most other developed countries
Positive
The Kiss of Debt
Total debt in the US has remained flat over the last
five years
Positive
Factories First
Billions of dollars that have been pouring into tech-
driven U.S. businesses
Positive
Hype Watch
The hype for the FANG four may signal a coming
peak rather than a new strength for the United States
Negative
Overall The good

Next
Previou
s
Others America: Mexico highlight criteria
CRITERIA IMPACT
Price of Onions
Rapidly rising prices for basics like onions doom
economic prospects
Negative
Factories First Factories First Positive
Price of Onions
Rare case of an economy reducing its ties to
petroleum
Positive
Hype Watch President being criticized but policies bear fruits Positive
People Matter
The working-age population has been growing at a
rate of 1.2%
Negative
Overall Prospects certainly look better than most countries The Good

small” questions:
According to Ruchir Sharma, which economic
growth level is Brazil?
A. The Good
B. The Ugly
C. The Average
Next
Previous

Next
Previous
Others America: Brazil highlight criteria
CRITERIA IMPACT
Geographic sweet
spot
At least starting to rethink policies that shut it off from
the world
Still negaitve
Factories First Far from building new manufacturing plants Negative
Cheap is good Rich Brazilians are staying put Positive
Hype Watch Hated by the media Positive
Kiss of Debt
Economy is contracting sharply and facing its worst
downturn facing deficit
Negative
Overall Gripped by stagflation The Ugly

small” questions:
According to Ruchir Sharma, which economic growth level is
India?
A. The Good
B. The Ugly
C. The Average
Next
Previous

Next
Previous
South Asia: India highlight criteria
CRITERIA IMPACT
Geographic sweet
spot
Long been hampered by the extremely low level of
trade within the region
Negative
Kiss of Debt
A state banking system that controls 75% of all loans,
more than double the emerging world average
Negative
Factories First “Make in India” to boost manufacturing Positive
Price of Onions
A classic case of an inflation-prone country Failing
oil prices
Negative
Hype Watch
Major media are not talking up the “South Asian
Tigers.”
Positive
Overall
Growing at a rate between 5 and 6 percent, much less
than the government claims but still a good outcome
for a low-income country
The Average

Next
Previous
Southeast Asia: Philippines highlight criteria
CRITERIA IMPACT
Hype Watch
International media have largely ignored this bright
spot but leaders hang on power too long
Meidum
People Matter Fast-growing working-age population Positive
Cycle of Life In the good stage of the cycles Positive
Perils of the State
No subsidies for electricity or gas and has ownership
stake in major banks
Positive
Overall
Former laggard is now a global frontrunner, and this
run still has legs
The Good

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