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I N S T I T U T F Ü R D E M O S K O P I E A L L E N S B A C H
Luxembourg Business Compass
15th Survey Wave
June 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1
FINDINGS
Optimism about the economic outlook continues to grow among Luxembourg
business leaders...................................................................................................3
Business leaders have renewed confidence in Luxembourg's competitive-
ness, while the lack of qualified staff continues to be problematic ....................5
The lack of qualified staff is an important barrier to growth, whereas
legislative and regulatory pressures have declined...........................................13
Luxembourg companies expect a strong increase in investments and the
number of employees, yet are more cautious when it comes to turnover
and profitability.................................................................................................16
A majority of companies are planning to expand their budgets for
information technology, introducing new products and services, and
recruiting new staff ...........................................................................................19
The impact of the upcoming corporate tax reform is viewed skeptically
by many Luxembourg entrepreneurs ................................................................23
More flexible working hours are important—
but the planned reform of the PAN law is viewed critically.............................31
APPENDIX
Survey data
- 1 -
INTRODUCTION
In April 2009, top decision-makers at the largest companies in Luxembourg, as
defined by the number of employees, were interviewed for the first time within the
framework of the Luxembourg Business Compass. Using this instrument, the aim
was to establish an economic indicator—for the first time ever—that could be
employed to ascertain Luxembourg business leaders' expectations regarding the
future economic trend in Luxembourg at regular intervals. The survey focuses
particularly on how business leaders expect the Luxembourg economy will develop
in the next 12 months, along with their expectations and plans for their own
companies' future development. These core questions are supplemented by varying
questions pertaining to business or politics.
In June 2016, the survey for the Luxembourg Business Compass was conducted for
the fifteenth time. As with the prior survey waves, the INSTITUT FÜR
DEMOSKOPIE ALLENSBACH was commissioned by KPMG S.A.R.L. to design
the survey methodologically, develop the questionnaire in cooperation with the
client, confidentially process the anonymous data collected and compile a report on
the findings. After being notified about the survey in writing or by telephone, a total
of 61 top decision-makers were interviewed using an online questionnaire in English
in the time from May 26 – June 10, 2016. As in all of the previous survey waves, it
was also possible to draw a top-notch sample for the present survey: in 16 percent of
the cases, the interview was completed by the company owner him- or herself, while
about three quarters of the respondents either belong to the executive board or top
management of their companies (74 percent), and the remaining 8 percent hold other
executive positions.
∗
The companies were selected based on the STATEC directory, "Les principaux
employeurs au Luxembourg d’après l'effectif classés par branche d’activité
économique de la NACE Rév.2, Situation au 1er janvier 2015 (édition juin 2015)."
∗
Two percent of respondents did not indicate their position at their companies.
- 2 -
In drawing the sample, companies were selected from the different business sectors
in line with these sectors' share of the gross domestic product in Luxembourg.
Within the different economic sectors, the largest companies—as determined by the
number of employees—were included in the investigation.
The present report summarizes the most important findings of the study and presents
them in graphic form. The report is supplemented by a basic volume of tables
showing the responses to all questions in tabular form.
Allensbach on Lake Constance, INSTITUT FÜR DEMOSKOPIE ALLENSBACH
June 24, 2016
- 3 -
FINDINGS
Optimism about the economic outlook continues to grow among Luxembourg
business leaders
In the view of Luxembourg business leaders, the Luxembourg economy is
continuing on its upward path, as evidenced by their expectations for the economic
development over the next 12 months, which are again clearly positive. On an 11-
step scale ranging from '-5' ("economy will contract very strongly") to '+5'
("economy will grow very strongly"), respondents currently choose an average value
of +1.6, indicating that they anticipate perceptible economic growth over the course
of the year. Their expectations have thus improved for the seventh time in a row
(Figure 1).
Figure 1
© IfD-Allensbach
Short-Term Expectations for the Luxembourg Economy:
Optimism Continues to Grow
'Grow very
strongly'
'Stagnate'
'Contract
very strongly'
On a scale of +5 to -5, average step chosen by respondents to indicate
how they expect the Luxembourg economy will develop in view of the
next 12 months
-1.4
+0.2
April
2009
Oct./
Nov.
2009
April
2010
Oct.
2010
Oct.
2011
Oct.
2012
April
2013
Oct.
2013
April
2014
Oct.
2014
April
2011
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
±
+
+
+
+
+
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
+0.5
+1.3 +1.5
+0.4
April
2012
+0.1
-0.6
-0.3
+0.4
+0.8 +0.9 +1.1 +1.3
April
2015
Oct.
2015
+1.6
June
2016
- 4 -
Business leaders' expectations for the next 12 months are very homogeneous, with
almost three quarters choosing steps +1 or +2 on the scale (73 percent), along with
17 percent who expect even stronger economic growth. In contrast, only 6 percent
anticipate economic stagnation, while a mere 4 percent expect the economy will
contract slightly (Figure 2).
Figure 2
© IfD-Allensbach
Index of Expectations for the Luxembourg Economy in View
of the Next 12 Months
'Grow very strongly'
'Stagnate'
'Contract very strongly'
On a scale of +5 to -5, step chosen by respondents to indicate how they expect the Luxembourg
economy will develop –
x = less than 0.5 percent
±0
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
37
36
15
2 %
6
22
x
x
x
x
- 5 -
Business leaders have renewed confidence in Luxembourg's competitiveness, while
the lack of qualified staff continues to be problematic
When it comes to Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location,
Luxembourg business leaders give clearly more positive assessments than they did in
the fall of last year. Almost two thirds of top decision-makers now assess the
country's competitiveness as good (59 percent) or very good (3 percent). Combined,
that is the highest share ever measured for this question within the framework of the
Luxembourg Business Compass (Figure 3).
Figure 3
© IfD-Allensbach
Entrepreneurs Have Renewed Confidence in Luxembourg's
Competitiveness as a Business Location
Question:
Very good
Good
Average
Rather poor
Very poor
"How do you assess the competitiveness of Luxembourg as a business location?"
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
x = less than 0.5 percent
Luxembourg's competitiveness as a
business location
3
50
35
12
8
50
37
5
%
x x
4
29
43
24
x
Oct.
2010
Oct.
2011
April
2011
3
37
44
12
April
2012
April
2013
April
2014
Oct.
2013
Oct.
2014
1
x x x
x
33
46
19
2
Oct.
2012
x
1
35
38
24
2
x
x
38
52
10
x
x
2
28
53
16
1
x
3
4
46
38
10
11
No response
x
x
3
55
35
7
April
2015
x
40
43
2
7
Oct.
2015
8
x
x
3
59
35
3
June
2016
- 6 -
When it comes to a number of individual factors that contribute to Luxembourg's
competitiveness as a business location, the share of business leaders who perceive
negative trends continues to outweigh those who perceive a positive development.
Nevertheless, none of the 14 location factors included in the survey are perceived as
having developed negatively by a majority of respondents. Luxembourg decision-
makers are most critical with respect to the development of the regulatory
environment: here, 46 percent of the business leaders interviewed say that the
situation has gotten worse over the past two years. A positive trend is perceived on
balance in connection with the innovative power of the Luxembourg economy,
promotion of Luxembourg as a business location and access to political decision-
makers (Figure 4)
Figure 4
© IfD-Allensbach
When It Comes to Many Location Factors, Entrepreneurs
Generally Do Not Perceive a Negative Trend in Luxembourg
x = less than 0.5 percent
Question:
Promotion of Luxembourg as a business location
Cost management by Luxembourg companies
Access to political decision-makers
Availability of a skilled, high quality workforce
The regulatory environment
The stable and coherent political environment
The transportation system, infrastructure
The tax environment
Availability of work permits
Government policies that adequately consider
business interests
The socially stable environment in Luxembourg
The administrative burdens placed on companies
The cost of labor, how competitive wages are
in Luxembourg
The Luxembourg economy's innovative power when
it comes to introducing new products and services
and developing new markets
"Thinking of Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location: which of these areas
have improved over the past two years, in which areas has the situation gotten worse,
and in which ones has the situation basically stayed the same?"
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
46
39
38
36
34
29
29
29
26
17
13
x
x
2
2
2
x
x
x
3
3
x
2
x
x
%
25
Improved
Stayed the sameGotten worse
No
response
8
11
7
12
12
3
16
36
x
41
46
36
49
60
57
69
66
59
59
77
71
57
97
57
2
2
5
5
3
2
- 7 -
Moreover, the development of a number of location factors is now assessed less
negatively than in prior survey waves. This is especially true with respect to the
development of the regulatory environment, the tax environment, the administrative
burdens placed on companies, along with labor costs (Figures 5 to 8).
Figure 5
The Development of the Regulatory Environment Is Viewed
Less Negatively Than in Prior Years ...
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
October 2011
April 2012
October 2012
April 2013
October 2013
April 2014
October 2014
April 2015
October 2015
June 2016
ImprovedGotten worse
Over the past two years
the situation has –
%
8
3
9
47
56
4
The regulatory
environment
Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response"
59
55
64
13
46 8
52
60
62
55
9
8
7
4
- 8 -
Figure 6
... Along with the Development of the Tax Environment ...
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
October 2011
April 2012
October 2012
April 2013
October 2013
April 2014
October 2014
April 2015
October 2015
June 2016
ImprovedGotten worse
Over the past two years the situation has –
%
3
27 7
32
49
62
x
x
2
2The tax
environment
Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent
42
60
1
2
57
69
2
11
57
38
- 9 -
Figure 7
... Administrative Burdens ...
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
April 2013
October 2013
April 2014
October 2014
April 2015
October 2015
June 2016
ImprovedGotten worse
Over the past two years the situation has –
%
The administrative
burdens placed on
companies
Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent
352
55
55
44
x
2
47
41
1
34
3
3
7
- 10 -
Figure 8
© IfD-Allensbach
The cost of labor,
how competitive
wages are in
Luxembourg
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent
October 2011
April 2012
October 2012
April 2013
October 2013
April 2014
October 2014
April 2015
October 2015
June 2016
ImprovedGotten worse
Over the past two years the situation has –
%
... and the Development of Labor Costs
x
75 x
74
80
74
1
x
2
x70
67
x
3
66
48
2
2
49
29
- 11 -
More than a third of Luxembourg business leaders rate the availability of a skilled,
high quality work force as worse than it was two years ago.1
This is reflected in the
widespread difficulties Luxembourg companies have in finding qualified staff: only
13 percent of the business leaders interviewed report that finding qualified staff is
currently easy or even very easy. In contrast, about half say that finding qualified
staff is "somewhat difficult," while a third even say it is "very difficult" (Figure 9).
Figure 9
1
Cf. Figure 4
© IfD-Allensbach
Finding Qualified Staff: Currently Very Difficult for
One Third of Luxembourg Companies
Question: "How easy or difficult is it for your company to find qualified staff at the moment?"
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
At the moment, finding qualified staff is –
very easy
somewhat easy 13 %
55
29
3
somewhat difficult
very difficult
Company has not
tried to find any new
staff recently
x
15
52
29
3
1
19
51
29
x x
1
October
2011
October
2014
April
2014
x = less than 0.5 percent
14
58
25
2
1
April
2015
October
2015
8
64
26
2
June
2016
2
11
52
33
2
- 12 -
About two thirds of major Luxembourg companies primarily find qualified staff in
other EU countries. The share of companies that mainly find qualified staff in
Luxembourg is currently 28 percent, which is a clear increase in comparison with the
shares obtained in previous years (Figure 10).
Figure 10
© IfD-Allensbach
Qualified Staff Is Generally Found in Other
EU Countries
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question:
Qualified staff is mainly found –
"When you are currently looking for qualified staff, where do you mainly find these new
staff members?"
in the EU
in non-EU
countries
No response/don't know/
company has not tried to find
any new staff recently
in Luxembourg 10
80
2
8
23
73
x4
%
x = less than 0.5 percent
April
2014
October
2014
April
2015
October
2015
21
78
x
1
19
77
2
2
June
2016
28
70
2
x
- 13 -
The lack of qualified staff is an important barrier to growth, whereas legislative and
regulatory pressures have declined
In the view of Luxembourg business leaders, the lack of qualified staff is currently
one of the most important barriers to growth at their companies. The only factor that
is cited more frequently is competition from foreign markets (Figure 11). The
importance of the lack of qualified staff as a barrier to growth thus remains at the
high level that was already ascertained in the prior survey wave conducted in
October 2015.
Figure 11
© IfD-Allensbach
Most Important Barriers to Growth
Question: "
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Thinking again of the next 6 months: Which of the following represent the most
important barriers to growth at your Luxembourg company?"
44
41
36
23
16
15
13
12
10
5
5
5
2
8
Lack of demand
Competition from foreign markets
Legislative and regulatory pressures
Pressure for salary increases
Late payments from customers
Lack of qualified staff
Behavior of labor unions
Limited access to new capital, capital constraints
Bank charges and interest rates
Limited access to new loans from banks
Lack of qualified management
Staff turnover
Oil/energy prices
Other
%
- 14 -
Similarly, the lack of qualified management is viewed as problematic by a growing
share of Luxembourg companies. In April 2009, only 7 percent of business leaders
cited this factor as a barrier to growth at their companies, a share which has in the
meantime grown to 16 percent (Figure 12).
Figure 12
The Lack of Qualified Management Is Becoming
More Problematic
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Most important barriers to growth
Lack of qualified management
April 2009
April 2010
October 2014
April 2015
October 2015
June 2016
7
12
9
11
13
16
%
- 15 -
In contrast, the legislative und regulatory pressures imposed by the state appear to be
less problematic for companies now than was the case in prior years (Figure 13). The
development of the regulatory environment as a location factor is also currently
assessed less negatively than it was in the past.2
The share of companies that view bank charges and interest rates as an important
barrier to growth is currently 12 percent, which is higher than the shares ascertained
in previous years (October 2015: 4 percent). This point is cited almost exclusively by
companies in the financial industry.
Figure 13
2
Cf. Figure 5
Legislative and Regulatory Pressures Have Declined Again
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Most important barriers to growth
Legislative and regulatory pressures
April 2009
April 2010
October 2014
April 2015
October 2015
June 2016
35
43
47
44
55
36
%
- 16 -
Luxembourg companies expect a strong increase in investments and the number of
employees, yet are more cautious when it comes to turnover and profitability
Despite their increasingly optimistic outlook regarding the general economic trend,
Luxembourg decision-makers are clearly more cautious than they were last year
when it comes to the development of turnover and profitability at their own
companies. Neverthless, business leaders continue to expect a positive development
in these areas on average. Over the next 6 months, turnover is expected to grow by
an average of 2.8 percent, while profitability is expected to increase by 1.2 percent.
Compared to the expectations ascertained in Fall 2015, this is a decline of about 2 or,
respectively, 3 percentage points (Figure 14).
Figure 14
Expectations for Entrepreneurs' Own Companies: More
Cautious Expectations Regarding Turnover and Profitability
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Business volume/
turnover
Profitability
Average changes
anticipated,
in percent
"How do you expect the following areas or indicators will develop at your Luxembourg
company over the next 6 months?"
Question:
April
2009
Oct./
Nov.
2009
April
2010
Oct.
2010
Oct.
2011
Oct.
2012
April
2013
Oct.
2013
April
2014
Oct.
2014
April
2011
April
2012
April
2015
Oct.
2015
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-4.3
-6.5
-0.4
-0.7
%
+2.2
+0.9
+5.2
+3.8
+5.5
+4.5
+2.4
+0.1
+2.0
+1.5
+1.1
+1.0
-1.1
-0.8
+2.1
+2.9
+0.4
+2.4
+2.8
+0.9
+4.5
+1.9
+4.4
+4.9+
+
+
+
+
+
±
June
2016
+1.2
+2.8
- 17 -
In contrast to the somewhat more cautious expectations in the areas of turnover and
profitability, both investments and the number of employees are expected to show
the strongest growth since April 2011: over the next 6 months, Luxembourg
decision-makers are planning to increase their investment volume by an average of
5.3 percent, while the number of employees is expected to grow 2.3 percent on
average (Figure 15). The magnitude of the planned increase in the number of
employees is likely to further exacerbate the widely reported lack of qualified staff.
Figure 15
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
April
2009
Oct./
Nov.
2009
April
2010
Oct.
2010
Oct.
2011
Oct.
2012
April
2013
Oct.
2013
April
2014
Oct.
2014
April
2011
April
2012
April
2015
Oct.
2015
+
+
+
+
+
+
±
Expectations for Entrepreneurs' Own Companies:
Strong Rise in Investments and the Number of Employees
Number of
employees
Investments
Average changes
anticipated,
in percent
"How do you expect the following areas or indicators will develop at your Luxembourg
company over the next 6 months?"
-2.6
-3.3
-2.3
+0.1
%
-0.5
+1.3
+5.0
+1.5
+2.7
+5.7
+0.8
+2.3
+0.2
-0.7
+1.3
+0.7
Question:
+2.6
+0.1
+2.9 +2.8
-0.3
+0.2
+2.5
+0.5
+4.8
+3.8
+1.8
+1.6
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
June
2016
+5.3
+2.3
- 18 -
A more differentiated analysis shows that roughly one out of four major companies
anticipate a decrease in profitability over the next 6 months, while a decline in
turnover is expected by about one out of five major companies. In contrast, hardly
any major Luxembourg companies are planning to reduce their investment volume
(Figure 16).
Figure 16
Some Luxembourg Entrepreneurs Expect Decreases in
Turnover and Profitability
© IfD-Allensbach
x = less than 0.5 percent
Question:
Increase:
No change
+20% or more
+10% to less than +20%
+5% to less than +10%
less than +5%
"How do you expect the following areas or indicators will develop at your Luxembourg
company over the next 6 months?"
Profitability Business volume/
turnover
Investments Number of
employees
52
21 15 26 28
2
8
16
26
Decrease:
less than -5%
-5% to less than -10%
-10% to less than -20%
-20% or more
27
On average
No response
+1.2
100
10
7
8
2
%
65
3
5
23
34
20
+2.8
100
13
3
2
2
%
67
7
11
24
25
5
+5.3
100
2
3
x
x
%
59
x
7
11
41
13
x x 2 x
+2.3
100
10
2
1
x
%
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
- 19 -
A majority of companies are planning to expand their budgets for information
technology, introducing new products and services, and recruiting new staff
The largest Luxembourg companies are generally planning to increase rather than
reduce their budgets for all areas of operations over the next six months. A
particularly large share of companies anticipate increases in connection with
information technology (77 percent), as well as for introducing new products or
services (70 percent) and recruiting new staff (56 percent). In contrast, the most
moderate budgetary increases are expected in connection with expanding facilities
and—remarkably—salaries and wages (Figure 17).
Figure 17
Planned Investments: Areas Where Luxembourg
Companies Will Increase or Decrease Expenditures
© IfD-Allensbach
Question: "
Introduction of new products or
services
Marketing and sales
Information technology
Training
Promotion
Research and development
Geographic expansion
Business acquisitions
Expanding facilities
E-commerce
Recruiting new staff
Advertising
Salaries (excluding legally binding
indexation)
In which of the following areas will your Luxembourg company increase or, respectively,
reduce its expenditures in the next 6 months?"
Increase No change Decrease
No response
x
x
1
2
x
x
x
x
x
2
x
2
x
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
x = less than 0.5 percent
77
70
56
49
47
44
41
31
31
23
23
16
16
% 21
30
38
49
51
54
57
69
66
72
70
79
72
x
5
2
7
3
12
2
x
3
x
2
2
3
- 20 -
In comparison with the planned increases measured last year, the share of companies
that now intend to increase their IT budgets is also remarkably high—higher than in
all previous survey waves. Moreover, entrepreneurs also intend to invest more
strongly in e-commerce than in prior years (Figure 18). The substantial increase in
investments expected by Luxembourg companies over the next six months3
will
probably be concentrated especially in these areas—and perhaps also for introducing
new products or services.
Figure 18
3
Cf. Figure 15
Changes in Companies' Planned Expenditures: A Growing
Share Plans to Increase Investments in IT and E-Commerce
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
June 2016
IncreaseDecrease
Information technology
E-commerce
38
2
1
55
42
47
7
2
44
31
2
18
10
4
39
65
48
16
5
x = less than 0.5 percent
5
26
27
41
4
x
%
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
June 2016
77
9
3
8
2
x
25
- 21 -
Likewise, the share of companies that are planning to increase their budgets for
recruiting new staff continues to grow substantially (Figure 19). In view of the
widely reported lack of qualified staff, this is hardly surprising.4
Figure 19
4
Cf. Figures 9, 11 and 12
Changes in Companies' Planned Expenditures:
Budgets for Recruiting New Staff Continue to Grow
© IfD-Allensbach
IncreaseDecrease
June 2016 5
%April 2013
October 2013
April 2014
October 2014
Recruiting new staff
24
27
14
23
27
37
4413
18 40
56
April 2015
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
11 42October 2015
- 22 -
In contrast, the share of companies that are planning to increase their budgets for
expanding facilities and geographic expansion has dropped in comparison with prior
years (Figure 20).
Figure 20
Changes in Companies' Planned Expenditures: Companies
Are Less Inclined to Increase Their Budgets for Expansion
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
June 2016
IncreaseDecrease
Expanding facilities
Geographic expansion
18
12
27
18
23
18
4
18
34
18
9
9
%
April 2009
April 2010
April 2011
April 2012
April 2013
April 2014
April 2015
June 2016
16
24
13
8
3
12
2
23
25
24
39
27
25
30
7
3
11
3
28
3
- 23 -
The impact of the upcoming corporate tax reform is viewed skeptically by many
Luxembourg entrepreneurs
Reforming the corporate tax laws is one of the Luxembourg government's major
economic projects. Details of the planned reform were announced in late February of
this year. The tax reform comprises a number of different measures, including
cutting the corporate income tax (CIT) rate, increasing the minimum net wealth tax
for holding and finance companies, along with limiting the use of loss carryforwards.
The announced reduction of the CIT rate from 21 percent to 19 percent next year,
and then to 18 percent in 2018, is criticized by about half of the entrepreneurs
interviewed as being too small. In comparison, 41 percent say that the reduction is
appropriate, while 7 percent even feel that the reduction is too large or, respectively,
that the CIT rate should not be reduced at all (Figure 21).
Figure 21
Opinions Are Divided on the Size of the Upcoming
Tax Cut for Companies ...
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "On February 29, the government announced the details of the upcoming tax reform
for companies. This includes the proposal to reduce the corporate income tax (CIT)
rate from 21% to 19% in 2017 and to 18% in 2018, resulting in a combined income
tax rate (CIT+MBT), for example in Luxembourg City, of 27.08% in 2017 and 26.01%
in 2018.
How do you assess the proposed reduction of the CIT rate?"
51 % 41
5
1
The reduction is
appropriate
The reduction of the CIT
rate ought to be larger
2
The reduction is
too large
The CIT rate should not be
reduced at all
No response
- 24 -
Just under half of top decision-makers expect that reducing the corporate tax rate
will have a positive or even very positive impact on Luxembourg's competitiveness
as a business location. Only a small minority anticipates a negative impact. About
half of Luxembourg business leaders believe that this measure will have neither a
positive nor negative impact on the country's competitiveness (Figure 22).
Figure 22
... and Its Impact on Luxembourg's Competitiveness
as a Business Location
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "What impact will the proposed reduction of the CIT rate have on Luxembourg's
competitiveness as a business location?"
x = less than 0.5 percent
44 %
49
x 2
Positive impact
Very positive impact
3
Neither positive nor
negative impact
Negative impact
No response
Very negative impact
2
- 25 -
Opinions are even more divided when business leaders are asked how they expect
the country's competitiveness would by affected if the reduction of the CIT rate was
accompanied by an increase in the taxable base, so that the measure would be
budgetarily neutral for the state. A relative majority of 36 percent says this would
have neither a positive nor negative impact on the country's competitiveness, while
31 percent anticipate negative effects and 26 percent expect positive effects (Figure
23).
Figure 23
Top Decision-Makers Are Skeptical about the Impact of the
Tax Cut Combined with an Increase in the Taxable Base
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "Suppose that the proposed reduction of the CIT rate was accompanied by an increase
in the taxable base, so that the measure would be budgetarily neutral for the state on
the whole: What impact do you think this measure would have on Luxembourg's
competitiveness as a business location?"
21 %
36
7
3
Positive impact
Very positive impact
28
Neither positive nor
negative impact
Negative impact
Don't know,
no response
Very negative impact
5
- 26 -
Luxembourg business leaders are also not in agreement when it comes to their
assessments of how the country's competitiveness will be affected by another
measure included in the package of tax reforms, i.e. increasing the minimum net
wealth tax for holding and finance companies ("SOPAFRIs"). In this case, a relative
majority of 44 percent of the entrepreneurs interviewed do not expect the measure to
have any effect, while 37 percent think it will have a negative impact and 8 percent
even anticipate a positive impact (Figure 24).
Figure 24
Increasing the Minimum NWT for SOPAFRIs: Only a Minority
Expects a Negative Impact on Luxembourg's Competitiveness
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "The tax reform includes a proposed increase in the minimum Net Wealth Tax (NWT),
which was introduced at the start of this year, from 3,210 to 4,815 euros for holding and
finance companies ('SOPAFRIs') as of January 2017.
What impact will the proposed increase in the minimum Net Wealth Tax have on
Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?"
44 %
30
11
x
Positive impact
Very positive
impact
7
Neither positive nor
negative impact
Negative impact
Don't know,
no response
Very negative impact
8
x = less than 0.5 percent
- 27 -
Business leaders' assessments are similar when it comes to the planned limitation of
the use of loss carryforwards. Until now, companies could carry their losses forward
and offset these against any subsequent profits indefinitely, up to the full amount of
the profits achieved. Under the new plan, losses incurred as of next year may only be
carried forward and offset against any profits for a maximum period of ten years. In
addition, it will only be possible to offset a maximum of 80 percent of taxable profits
by prior losses.
Just under half of major Luxembourg companies expect that these changes will have
no impact on the country's competitiveness, as compared to 41 percent who expect a
negative or even very negative impact. 10 percent of the entrepreneurs interviewed
believe the measure will have a positive impact (Figure 25).
Figure 25
The Majority Also Does Not Expect that Limiting the Use of
Loss Carryforwards Will Have a Negative Impact on the
Country's Competitiveness
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "Luxembourg tax law currently provides that under certain circumstances resident
companies may carry their losses forward indefinitely and off-set those against any
future profit (up to 100% each year). Subsequent to the tax reform, losses realised as of
the fiscal year 2017 should be carried forward for a maximum period of ten years.
Furthermore, it would not be possible anymore to reduce the taxable basis of a company
to zero by deducting losses carried forward; a maximum of 80% of the profit may be
off-set by past losses:
What impact will the proposed limitations on the use of loss carryforwards, in terms of both
time and the maximum share of taxable income, have on Luxembourg's competitiveness
as a business location?"
46 %
36
3
Positive impact
Very positive
impact
5
Neither positive nor
negative impact
Negative impact
No response
Very negative impact
10
x
x = less than 0.5 percent
- 28 -
About one quarter of decision-makers expect that limiting the use of loss
carryforwards will be harmful to their own companies, whereas about half believe it
will not be very harmful and an additional quarter do not believe it will be harmful at
all. None of the entrepreneurs interviewed assume that this change will have a very
harmful impact on their own companies (Figure 26).
Figure 26
Limiting the Use of Loss Carryforwards Would Be Harmful
for About One out of Four Major Companies
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "And what impact will the proposed limitations on the use of loss carryforwards, in terms
of both time and the maximum share of taxable income, have on your company?
Do you think this measure will be ..."
23 %
48
3
Harmful
Very harmful
26
Not very
harmful
Not harmful
at all
No response
x
x = less than 0.5 percent
- 29 -
On the whole, about half of Luxembourg business leaders do not expect that the
proposed package of changes relating to the corporate tax will have any major
impact on the country's competitiveness as a business location. An additional 23
percent expect a positive impact on the whole, while 18 percent anticipate a negative
impact. No respondents expect the measures to have either a very positive or very
negative impact (Figure 27).
When it comes to their own companies, more than two thirds of Luxembourg
decision-makers say the reform will have no impact on balance, as compared to only
15 percent who expect a positive impact and 12 percent who expect a negative
impact. Here too, no respondents anticipate a very positive or very negative impact
(Figure 28).
Figure 27
Entrepreneurs Generally Do Not Expect that the Tax Reforms
Will Have Any Impact on Luxembourg's Competitiveness
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "Overall, what impact will the proposed package of changes—that is, reducing the
corporate income tax, increasing the minimum net wealth tax, along with limiting the
use of loss carryforwards—have on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?"
23 %
527
18
No response
x
Positive impact
Very positive
impact
Neither positive nor
negative impact
Negative impact
Very negative
impact
x
x = less than 0.5 percent
- 30 -
Figure 28
Only a Minority of Decision-Makers Expect that the Tax
Reforms Will Have Any Impact on Their Own Companies
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "What impact will the proposed package of changes—that is, reducing the corporate
income tax, increasing the minimum net wealth tax, along with limiting the use of loss
carryforwards—have on your company?"
15 %
70
3
12
No response
x
Positive impact
Very positive
impact
Neither positive nor
negative impact
Negative impact
Very negative
impact
x
x = less than 0.5 percent
- 31 -
More flexible working hours are important—but the planned reform of the PAN law
is viewed critically
For almost three quarters of major Luxembourg companies, having greater flexibility
regarding their employees' working hours would be important or even very
important (Figure 29).
Nevertheless, a majority rejects the government's proposed reform of the PAN law,
which would allow companies to extend the period of reference, that is, the time in
which employees' working time accounts must be balanced out, from one to four
months (Figure 30).
Figure 29
© IfD-Allensbach
x = less than 0.5 percent
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
39
33 %
3
For Almost Three Quarters of Major Companies, Having Greater
Flexibility Regarding Working Hours Would Be (Very) Important
Question: "How important would it be for your company to have greater flexibility regarding
working hours?"
Very important
Not important at all
Important
Not very important
No response
25
x
- 32 -
Figure 30
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
38 %
The Majority Rejects the PAN Law
Question: "The government's proposed reform of the law for more flexibility regarding working
hours (Pan Law) would allow companies to expand the period of reference from 1 to 4
months. If companies decide to do so, their employees will receive an additional 3.5
vacation days in return.
On the whole, do you think this provision is good or is it not good?"
Good
Not good 57
Not shown: "No response"
- 33 -
Business leaders are especially critical of the plan to compensate employees by
giving them 3.5 additional vacation days. The great majority of those who are
opposed to the plan would not give employees any compensation at all, or they
would prefer that employees be given either some other means of compensation or
one additional vacation day at most (Figure 31).
Figure 31
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Many Business Leaders Are Against Giving Additional
Vacation Days as Compensation
Question: "The government's proposed reform of the law for more flexibility regarding working hours
(Pan Law) would allow companies to expand the period of reference from 1 to 4 months.
If companies decide to do so, their employees will receive an additional 3.5 vacation
days in return.
What do you think would have been an appropriate way to compensate the companies'
employees in return for more flexibility?"
Good
Not good
Not shown: "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent
On the whole, the proposed
reform of the Pan Law is –
No compensation
1 additional
vacation day
2 days
3 days
3.5 days as proposed
Other means of compensation
38 %
57
29
An appropriate way to compensate
employees would have been –
13
10
5 xx
- 34 -
Moreover, even though about three quarters of major Luxembourg companies say
that having greater flexibility regarding their employees' working hours is very
important or important5
, only 11 percent currently state that their companies are
likely or highly likely to implement this new provision (Figure 32).
Figure 32
5
Cf. Figure 29
Only a Small Share of Business Leaders Currently Think
that Their Companies Are Likely to Implement the New
Provision
© IfD-Allensbach
Base: Total respondents
Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
Question: "Do you plan to implement this new provision at your company?"
10 % 36
3
20
No response
2
Likely
Highly likely
Unlikely
Highly unlikely
Don't know yet
29
- 35 -
A P P E N D I X
Survey data
Overall respons-
ibility for methods:
Planning and draw-
ing the sample:
Group of persons
interviewed
(universe):
Sampling method:
Number of
respondents:
Type of interviews:
Fieldwork dates:
IfD Archives
Survey No.:
Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach
KPMG Luxemburg
Top decision-makers at the largest companies in Luxembourg, as defined by the
number of employees
Top-down approach stratified according to business sectors
The sample was drawn based on the directory(*) of the Luxembourg statistics bureau
(Statec), which lists companies with 90 employees or more in Luxembourg.
For each business sector, the number of companies included in the survey was
roughly commensurate with the sector's share of the gross domestic product (GDP)
of Luxembourg, whereby the companies were selected in descending order
according to the number of employees.
In the companies selected to participate, every effort was made to persuade a
representative of the upper management (owner, CEO, CFO, COO, etc.) to
complete the online survey.
61
Online survey completed after prior notification in writing or by telephone
May 26 – June 10, 2016
7246
(*) Les principaux employeurs au Luxembourg d’après l'effectif
classés par branche d’activité économique de la NACE Rév.2
Situation au 1er janvier 2015 (édition juin 2015)
SURVEY DATA

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Luxembourg Business Compass_2016

  • 1. I N S T I T U T F Ü R D E M O S K O P I E A L L E N S B A C H Luxembourg Business Compass 15th Survey Wave June 2016
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 FINDINGS Optimism about the economic outlook continues to grow among Luxembourg business leaders...................................................................................................3 Business leaders have renewed confidence in Luxembourg's competitive- ness, while the lack of qualified staff continues to be problematic ....................5 The lack of qualified staff is an important barrier to growth, whereas legislative and regulatory pressures have declined...........................................13 Luxembourg companies expect a strong increase in investments and the number of employees, yet are more cautious when it comes to turnover and profitability.................................................................................................16 A majority of companies are planning to expand their budgets for information technology, introducing new products and services, and recruiting new staff ...........................................................................................19 The impact of the upcoming corporate tax reform is viewed skeptically by many Luxembourg entrepreneurs ................................................................23 More flexible working hours are important— but the planned reform of the PAN law is viewed critically.............................31 APPENDIX Survey data
  • 3. - 1 - INTRODUCTION In April 2009, top decision-makers at the largest companies in Luxembourg, as defined by the number of employees, were interviewed for the first time within the framework of the Luxembourg Business Compass. Using this instrument, the aim was to establish an economic indicator—for the first time ever—that could be employed to ascertain Luxembourg business leaders' expectations regarding the future economic trend in Luxembourg at regular intervals. The survey focuses particularly on how business leaders expect the Luxembourg economy will develop in the next 12 months, along with their expectations and plans for their own companies' future development. These core questions are supplemented by varying questions pertaining to business or politics. In June 2016, the survey for the Luxembourg Business Compass was conducted for the fifteenth time. As with the prior survey waves, the INSTITUT FÜR DEMOSKOPIE ALLENSBACH was commissioned by KPMG S.A.R.L. to design the survey methodologically, develop the questionnaire in cooperation with the client, confidentially process the anonymous data collected and compile a report on the findings. After being notified about the survey in writing or by telephone, a total of 61 top decision-makers were interviewed using an online questionnaire in English in the time from May 26 – June 10, 2016. As in all of the previous survey waves, it was also possible to draw a top-notch sample for the present survey: in 16 percent of the cases, the interview was completed by the company owner him- or herself, while about three quarters of the respondents either belong to the executive board or top management of their companies (74 percent), and the remaining 8 percent hold other executive positions. ∗ The companies were selected based on the STATEC directory, "Les principaux employeurs au Luxembourg d’après l'effectif classés par branche d’activité économique de la NACE Rév.2, Situation au 1er janvier 2015 (édition juin 2015)." ∗ Two percent of respondents did not indicate their position at their companies.
  • 4. - 2 - In drawing the sample, companies were selected from the different business sectors in line with these sectors' share of the gross domestic product in Luxembourg. Within the different economic sectors, the largest companies—as determined by the number of employees—were included in the investigation. The present report summarizes the most important findings of the study and presents them in graphic form. The report is supplemented by a basic volume of tables showing the responses to all questions in tabular form. Allensbach on Lake Constance, INSTITUT FÜR DEMOSKOPIE ALLENSBACH June 24, 2016
  • 5. - 3 - FINDINGS Optimism about the economic outlook continues to grow among Luxembourg business leaders In the view of Luxembourg business leaders, the Luxembourg economy is continuing on its upward path, as evidenced by their expectations for the economic development over the next 12 months, which are again clearly positive. On an 11- step scale ranging from '-5' ("economy will contract very strongly") to '+5' ("economy will grow very strongly"), respondents currently choose an average value of +1.6, indicating that they anticipate perceptible economic growth over the course of the year. Their expectations have thus improved for the seventh time in a row (Figure 1). Figure 1 © IfD-Allensbach Short-Term Expectations for the Luxembourg Economy: Optimism Continues to Grow 'Grow very strongly' 'Stagnate' 'Contract very strongly' On a scale of +5 to -5, average step chosen by respondents to indicate how they expect the Luxembourg economy will develop in view of the next 12 months -1.4 +0.2 April 2009 Oct./ Nov. 2009 April 2010 Oct. 2010 Oct. 2011 Oct. 2012 April 2013 Oct. 2013 April 2014 Oct. 2014 April 2011 Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG ± + + + + + -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 +0.5 +1.3 +1.5 +0.4 April 2012 +0.1 -0.6 -0.3 +0.4 +0.8 +0.9 +1.1 +1.3 April 2015 Oct. 2015 +1.6 June 2016
  • 6. - 4 - Business leaders' expectations for the next 12 months are very homogeneous, with almost three quarters choosing steps +1 or +2 on the scale (73 percent), along with 17 percent who expect even stronger economic growth. In contrast, only 6 percent anticipate economic stagnation, while a mere 4 percent expect the economy will contract slightly (Figure 2). Figure 2 © IfD-Allensbach Index of Expectations for the Luxembourg Economy in View of the Next 12 Months 'Grow very strongly' 'Stagnate' 'Contract very strongly' On a scale of +5 to -5, step chosen by respondents to indicate how they expect the Luxembourg economy will develop – x = less than 0.5 percent ±0 Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 37 36 15 2 % 6 22 x x x x
  • 7. - 5 - Business leaders have renewed confidence in Luxembourg's competitiveness, while the lack of qualified staff continues to be problematic When it comes to Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location, Luxembourg business leaders give clearly more positive assessments than they did in the fall of last year. Almost two thirds of top decision-makers now assess the country's competitiveness as good (59 percent) or very good (3 percent). Combined, that is the highest share ever measured for this question within the framework of the Luxembourg Business Compass (Figure 3). Figure 3 © IfD-Allensbach Entrepreneurs Have Renewed Confidence in Luxembourg's Competitiveness as a Business Location Question: Very good Good Average Rather poor Very poor "How do you assess the competitiveness of Luxembourg as a business location?" Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG x = less than 0.5 percent Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location 3 50 35 12 8 50 37 5 % x x 4 29 43 24 x Oct. 2010 Oct. 2011 April 2011 3 37 44 12 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 Oct. 2013 Oct. 2014 1 x x x x 33 46 19 2 Oct. 2012 x 1 35 38 24 2 x x 38 52 10 x x 2 28 53 16 1 x 3 4 46 38 10 11 No response x x 3 55 35 7 April 2015 x 40 43 2 7 Oct. 2015 8 x x 3 59 35 3 June 2016
  • 8. - 6 - When it comes to a number of individual factors that contribute to Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location, the share of business leaders who perceive negative trends continues to outweigh those who perceive a positive development. Nevertheless, none of the 14 location factors included in the survey are perceived as having developed negatively by a majority of respondents. Luxembourg decision- makers are most critical with respect to the development of the regulatory environment: here, 46 percent of the business leaders interviewed say that the situation has gotten worse over the past two years. A positive trend is perceived on balance in connection with the innovative power of the Luxembourg economy, promotion of Luxembourg as a business location and access to political decision- makers (Figure 4) Figure 4 © IfD-Allensbach When It Comes to Many Location Factors, Entrepreneurs Generally Do Not Perceive a Negative Trend in Luxembourg x = less than 0.5 percent Question: Promotion of Luxembourg as a business location Cost management by Luxembourg companies Access to political decision-makers Availability of a skilled, high quality workforce The regulatory environment The stable and coherent political environment The transportation system, infrastructure The tax environment Availability of work permits Government policies that adequately consider business interests The socially stable environment in Luxembourg The administrative burdens placed on companies The cost of labor, how competitive wages are in Luxembourg The Luxembourg economy's innovative power when it comes to introducing new products and services and developing new markets "Thinking of Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location: which of these areas have improved over the past two years, in which areas has the situation gotten worse, and in which ones has the situation basically stayed the same?" Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG 46 39 38 36 34 29 29 29 26 17 13 x x 2 2 2 x x x 3 3 x 2 x x % 25 Improved Stayed the sameGotten worse No response 8 11 7 12 12 3 16 36 x 41 46 36 49 60 57 69 66 59 59 77 71 57 97 57 2 2 5 5 3 2
  • 9. - 7 - Moreover, the development of a number of location factors is now assessed less negatively than in prior survey waves. This is especially true with respect to the development of the regulatory environment, the tax environment, the administrative burdens placed on companies, along with labor costs (Figures 5 to 8). Figure 5 The Development of the Regulatory Environment Is Viewed Less Negatively Than in Prior Years ... © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 April 2014 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 June 2016 ImprovedGotten worse Over the past two years the situation has – % 8 3 9 47 56 4 The regulatory environment Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" 59 55 64 13 46 8 52 60 62 55 9 8 7 4
  • 10. - 8 - Figure 6 ... Along with the Development of the Tax Environment ... © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 April 2014 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 June 2016 ImprovedGotten worse Over the past two years the situation has – % 3 27 7 32 49 62 x x 2 2The tax environment Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent 42 60 1 2 57 69 2 11 57 38
  • 11. - 9 - Figure 7 ... Administrative Burdens ... © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG April 2013 October 2013 April 2014 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 June 2016 ImprovedGotten worse Over the past two years the situation has – % The administrative burdens placed on companies Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent 352 55 55 44 x 2 47 41 1 34 3 3 7
  • 12. - 10 - Figure 8 © IfD-Allensbach The cost of labor, how competitive wages are in Luxembourg Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Not shown: "Stayed the same" and "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 April 2014 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 June 2016 ImprovedGotten worse Over the past two years the situation has – % ... and the Development of Labor Costs x 75 x 74 80 74 1 x 2 x70 67 x 3 66 48 2 2 49 29
  • 13. - 11 - More than a third of Luxembourg business leaders rate the availability of a skilled, high quality work force as worse than it was two years ago.1 This is reflected in the widespread difficulties Luxembourg companies have in finding qualified staff: only 13 percent of the business leaders interviewed report that finding qualified staff is currently easy or even very easy. In contrast, about half say that finding qualified staff is "somewhat difficult," while a third even say it is "very difficult" (Figure 9). Figure 9 1 Cf. Figure 4 © IfD-Allensbach Finding Qualified Staff: Currently Very Difficult for One Third of Luxembourg Companies Question: "How easy or difficult is it for your company to find qualified staff at the moment?" Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG At the moment, finding qualified staff is – very easy somewhat easy 13 % 55 29 3 somewhat difficult very difficult Company has not tried to find any new staff recently x 15 52 29 3 1 19 51 29 x x 1 October 2011 October 2014 April 2014 x = less than 0.5 percent 14 58 25 2 1 April 2015 October 2015 8 64 26 2 June 2016 2 11 52 33 2
  • 14. - 12 - About two thirds of major Luxembourg companies primarily find qualified staff in other EU countries. The share of companies that mainly find qualified staff in Luxembourg is currently 28 percent, which is a clear increase in comparison with the shares obtained in previous years (Figure 10). Figure 10 © IfD-Allensbach Qualified Staff Is Generally Found in Other EU Countries Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: Qualified staff is mainly found – "When you are currently looking for qualified staff, where do you mainly find these new staff members?" in the EU in non-EU countries No response/don't know/ company has not tried to find any new staff recently in Luxembourg 10 80 2 8 23 73 x4 % x = less than 0.5 percent April 2014 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 21 78 x 1 19 77 2 2 June 2016 28 70 2 x
  • 15. - 13 - The lack of qualified staff is an important barrier to growth, whereas legislative and regulatory pressures have declined In the view of Luxembourg business leaders, the lack of qualified staff is currently one of the most important barriers to growth at their companies. The only factor that is cited more frequently is competition from foreign markets (Figure 11). The importance of the lack of qualified staff as a barrier to growth thus remains at the high level that was already ascertained in the prior survey wave conducted in October 2015. Figure 11 © IfD-Allensbach Most Important Barriers to Growth Question: " Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Thinking again of the next 6 months: Which of the following represent the most important barriers to growth at your Luxembourg company?" 44 41 36 23 16 15 13 12 10 5 5 5 2 8 Lack of demand Competition from foreign markets Legislative and regulatory pressures Pressure for salary increases Late payments from customers Lack of qualified staff Behavior of labor unions Limited access to new capital, capital constraints Bank charges and interest rates Limited access to new loans from banks Lack of qualified management Staff turnover Oil/energy prices Other %
  • 16. - 14 - Similarly, the lack of qualified management is viewed as problematic by a growing share of Luxembourg companies. In April 2009, only 7 percent of business leaders cited this factor as a barrier to growth at their companies, a share which has in the meantime grown to 16 percent (Figure 12). Figure 12 The Lack of Qualified Management Is Becoming More Problematic © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Most important barriers to growth Lack of qualified management April 2009 April 2010 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 June 2016 7 12 9 11 13 16 %
  • 17. - 15 - In contrast, the legislative und regulatory pressures imposed by the state appear to be less problematic for companies now than was the case in prior years (Figure 13). The development of the regulatory environment as a location factor is also currently assessed less negatively than it was in the past.2 The share of companies that view bank charges and interest rates as an important barrier to growth is currently 12 percent, which is higher than the shares ascertained in previous years (October 2015: 4 percent). This point is cited almost exclusively by companies in the financial industry. Figure 13 2 Cf. Figure 5 Legislative and Regulatory Pressures Have Declined Again © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Most important barriers to growth Legislative and regulatory pressures April 2009 April 2010 October 2014 April 2015 October 2015 June 2016 35 43 47 44 55 36 %
  • 18. - 16 - Luxembourg companies expect a strong increase in investments and the number of employees, yet are more cautious when it comes to turnover and profitability Despite their increasingly optimistic outlook regarding the general economic trend, Luxembourg decision-makers are clearly more cautious than they were last year when it comes to the development of turnover and profitability at their own companies. Neverthless, business leaders continue to expect a positive development in these areas on average. Over the next 6 months, turnover is expected to grow by an average of 2.8 percent, while profitability is expected to increase by 1.2 percent. Compared to the expectations ascertained in Fall 2015, this is a decline of about 2 or, respectively, 3 percentage points (Figure 14). Figure 14 Expectations for Entrepreneurs' Own Companies: More Cautious Expectations Regarding Turnover and Profitability © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Business volume/ turnover Profitability Average changes anticipated, in percent "How do you expect the following areas or indicators will develop at your Luxembourg company over the next 6 months?" Question: April 2009 Oct./ Nov. 2009 April 2010 Oct. 2010 Oct. 2011 Oct. 2012 April 2013 Oct. 2013 April 2014 Oct. 2014 April 2011 April 2012 April 2015 Oct. 2015 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -4.3 -6.5 -0.4 -0.7 % +2.2 +0.9 +5.2 +3.8 +5.5 +4.5 +2.4 +0.1 +2.0 +1.5 +1.1 +1.0 -1.1 -0.8 +2.1 +2.9 +0.4 +2.4 +2.8 +0.9 +4.5 +1.9 +4.4 +4.9+ + + + + + ± June 2016 +1.2 +2.8
  • 19. - 17 - In contrast to the somewhat more cautious expectations in the areas of turnover and profitability, both investments and the number of employees are expected to show the strongest growth since April 2011: over the next 6 months, Luxembourg decision-makers are planning to increase their investment volume by an average of 5.3 percent, while the number of employees is expected to grow 2.3 percent on average (Figure 15). The magnitude of the planned increase in the number of employees is likely to further exacerbate the widely reported lack of qualified staff. Figure 15 © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG April 2009 Oct./ Nov. 2009 April 2010 Oct. 2010 Oct. 2011 Oct. 2012 April 2013 Oct. 2013 April 2014 Oct. 2014 April 2011 April 2012 April 2015 Oct. 2015 + + + + + + ± Expectations for Entrepreneurs' Own Companies: Strong Rise in Investments and the Number of Employees Number of employees Investments Average changes anticipated, in percent "How do you expect the following areas or indicators will develop at your Luxembourg company over the next 6 months?" -2.6 -3.3 -2.3 +0.1 % -0.5 +1.3 +5.0 +1.5 +2.7 +5.7 +0.8 +2.3 +0.2 -0.7 +1.3 +0.7 Question: +2.6 +0.1 +2.9 +2.8 -0.3 +0.2 +2.5 +0.5 +4.8 +3.8 +1.8 +1.6 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 June 2016 +5.3 +2.3
  • 20. - 18 - A more differentiated analysis shows that roughly one out of four major companies anticipate a decrease in profitability over the next 6 months, while a decline in turnover is expected by about one out of five major companies. In contrast, hardly any major Luxembourg companies are planning to reduce their investment volume (Figure 16). Figure 16 Some Luxembourg Entrepreneurs Expect Decreases in Turnover and Profitability © IfD-Allensbach x = less than 0.5 percent Question: Increase: No change +20% or more +10% to less than +20% +5% to less than +10% less than +5% "How do you expect the following areas or indicators will develop at your Luxembourg company over the next 6 months?" Profitability Business volume/ turnover Investments Number of employees 52 21 15 26 28 2 8 16 26 Decrease: less than -5% -5% to less than -10% -10% to less than -20% -20% or more 27 On average No response +1.2 100 10 7 8 2 % 65 3 5 23 34 20 +2.8 100 13 3 2 2 % 67 7 11 24 25 5 +5.3 100 2 3 x x % 59 x 7 11 41 13 x x 2 x +2.3 100 10 2 1 x % Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG
  • 21. - 19 - A majority of companies are planning to expand their budgets for information technology, introducing new products and services, and recruiting new staff The largest Luxembourg companies are generally planning to increase rather than reduce their budgets for all areas of operations over the next six months. A particularly large share of companies anticipate increases in connection with information technology (77 percent), as well as for introducing new products or services (70 percent) and recruiting new staff (56 percent). In contrast, the most moderate budgetary increases are expected in connection with expanding facilities and—remarkably—salaries and wages (Figure 17). Figure 17 Planned Investments: Areas Where Luxembourg Companies Will Increase or Decrease Expenditures © IfD-Allensbach Question: " Introduction of new products or services Marketing and sales Information technology Training Promotion Research and development Geographic expansion Business acquisitions Expanding facilities E-commerce Recruiting new staff Advertising Salaries (excluding legally binding indexation) In which of the following areas will your Luxembourg company increase or, respectively, reduce its expenditures in the next 6 months?" Increase No change Decrease No response x x 1 2 x x x x x 2 x 2 x Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG x = less than 0.5 percent 77 70 56 49 47 44 41 31 31 23 23 16 16 % 21 30 38 49 51 54 57 69 66 72 70 79 72 x 5 2 7 3 12 2 x 3 x 2 2 3
  • 22. - 20 - In comparison with the planned increases measured last year, the share of companies that now intend to increase their IT budgets is also remarkably high—higher than in all previous survey waves. Moreover, entrepreneurs also intend to invest more strongly in e-commerce than in prior years (Figure 18). The substantial increase in investments expected by Luxembourg companies over the next six months3 will probably be concentrated especially in these areas—and perhaps also for introducing new products or services. Figure 18 3 Cf. Figure 15 Changes in Companies' Planned Expenditures: A Growing Share Plans to Increase Investments in IT and E-Commerce © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 June 2016 IncreaseDecrease Information technology E-commerce 38 2 1 55 42 47 7 2 44 31 2 18 10 4 39 65 48 16 5 x = less than 0.5 percent 5 26 27 41 4 x % April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 June 2016 77 9 3 8 2 x 25
  • 23. - 21 - Likewise, the share of companies that are planning to increase their budgets for recruiting new staff continues to grow substantially (Figure 19). In view of the widely reported lack of qualified staff, this is hardly surprising.4 Figure 19 4 Cf. Figures 9, 11 and 12 Changes in Companies' Planned Expenditures: Budgets for Recruiting New Staff Continue to Grow © IfD-Allensbach IncreaseDecrease June 2016 5 %April 2013 October 2013 April 2014 October 2014 Recruiting new staff 24 27 14 23 27 37 4413 18 40 56 April 2015 Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG 11 42October 2015
  • 24. - 22 - In contrast, the share of companies that are planning to increase their budgets for expanding facilities and geographic expansion has dropped in comparison with prior years (Figure 20). Figure 20 Changes in Companies' Planned Expenditures: Companies Are Less Inclined to Increase Their Budgets for Expansion © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 June 2016 IncreaseDecrease Expanding facilities Geographic expansion 18 12 27 18 23 18 4 18 34 18 9 9 % April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015 June 2016 16 24 13 8 3 12 2 23 25 24 39 27 25 30 7 3 11 3 28 3
  • 25. - 23 - The impact of the upcoming corporate tax reform is viewed skeptically by many Luxembourg entrepreneurs Reforming the corporate tax laws is one of the Luxembourg government's major economic projects. Details of the planned reform were announced in late February of this year. The tax reform comprises a number of different measures, including cutting the corporate income tax (CIT) rate, increasing the minimum net wealth tax for holding and finance companies, along with limiting the use of loss carryforwards. The announced reduction of the CIT rate from 21 percent to 19 percent next year, and then to 18 percent in 2018, is criticized by about half of the entrepreneurs interviewed as being too small. In comparison, 41 percent say that the reduction is appropriate, while 7 percent even feel that the reduction is too large or, respectively, that the CIT rate should not be reduced at all (Figure 21). Figure 21 Opinions Are Divided on the Size of the Upcoming Tax Cut for Companies ... © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "On February 29, the government announced the details of the upcoming tax reform for companies. This includes the proposal to reduce the corporate income tax (CIT) rate from 21% to 19% in 2017 and to 18% in 2018, resulting in a combined income tax rate (CIT+MBT), for example in Luxembourg City, of 27.08% in 2017 and 26.01% in 2018. How do you assess the proposed reduction of the CIT rate?" 51 % 41 5 1 The reduction is appropriate The reduction of the CIT rate ought to be larger 2 The reduction is too large The CIT rate should not be reduced at all No response
  • 26. - 24 - Just under half of top decision-makers expect that reducing the corporate tax rate will have a positive or even very positive impact on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location. Only a small minority anticipates a negative impact. About half of Luxembourg business leaders believe that this measure will have neither a positive nor negative impact on the country's competitiveness (Figure 22). Figure 22 ... and Its Impact on Luxembourg's Competitiveness as a Business Location © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "What impact will the proposed reduction of the CIT rate have on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?" x = less than 0.5 percent 44 % 49 x 2 Positive impact Very positive impact 3 Neither positive nor negative impact Negative impact No response Very negative impact 2
  • 27. - 25 - Opinions are even more divided when business leaders are asked how they expect the country's competitiveness would by affected if the reduction of the CIT rate was accompanied by an increase in the taxable base, so that the measure would be budgetarily neutral for the state. A relative majority of 36 percent says this would have neither a positive nor negative impact on the country's competitiveness, while 31 percent anticipate negative effects and 26 percent expect positive effects (Figure 23). Figure 23 Top Decision-Makers Are Skeptical about the Impact of the Tax Cut Combined with an Increase in the Taxable Base © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "Suppose that the proposed reduction of the CIT rate was accompanied by an increase in the taxable base, so that the measure would be budgetarily neutral for the state on the whole: What impact do you think this measure would have on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?" 21 % 36 7 3 Positive impact Very positive impact 28 Neither positive nor negative impact Negative impact Don't know, no response Very negative impact 5
  • 28. - 26 - Luxembourg business leaders are also not in agreement when it comes to their assessments of how the country's competitiveness will be affected by another measure included in the package of tax reforms, i.e. increasing the minimum net wealth tax for holding and finance companies ("SOPAFRIs"). In this case, a relative majority of 44 percent of the entrepreneurs interviewed do not expect the measure to have any effect, while 37 percent think it will have a negative impact and 8 percent even anticipate a positive impact (Figure 24). Figure 24 Increasing the Minimum NWT for SOPAFRIs: Only a Minority Expects a Negative Impact on Luxembourg's Competitiveness © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "The tax reform includes a proposed increase in the minimum Net Wealth Tax (NWT), which was introduced at the start of this year, from 3,210 to 4,815 euros for holding and finance companies ('SOPAFRIs') as of January 2017. What impact will the proposed increase in the minimum Net Wealth Tax have on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?" 44 % 30 11 x Positive impact Very positive impact 7 Neither positive nor negative impact Negative impact Don't know, no response Very negative impact 8 x = less than 0.5 percent
  • 29. - 27 - Business leaders' assessments are similar when it comes to the planned limitation of the use of loss carryforwards. Until now, companies could carry their losses forward and offset these against any subsequent profits indefinitely, up to the full amount of the profits achieved. Under the new plan, losses incurred as of next year may only be carried forward and offset against any profits for a maximum period of ten years. In addition, it will only be possible to offset a maximum of 80 percent of taxable profits by prior losses. Just under half of major Luxembourg companies expect that these changes will have no impact on the country's competitiveness, as compared to 41 percent who expect a negative or even very negative impact. 10 percent of the entrepreneurs interviewed believe the measure will have a positive impact (Figure 25). Figure 25 The Majority Also Does Not Expect that Limiting the Use of Loss Carryforwards Will Have a Negative Impact on the Country's Competitiveness © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "Luxembourg tax law currently provides that under certain circumstances resident companies may carry their losses forward indefinitely and off-set those against any future profit (up to 100% each year). Subsequent to the tax reform, losses realised as of the fiscal year 2017 should be carried forward for a maximum period of ten years. Furthermore, it would not be possible anymore to reduce the taxable basis of a company to zero by deducting losses carried forward; a maximum of 80% of the profit may be off-set by past losses: What impact will the proposed limitations on the use of loss carryforwards, in terms of both time and the maximum share of taxable income, have on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?" 46 % 36 3 Positive impact Very positive impact 5 Neither positive nor negative impact Negative impact No response Very negative impact 10 x x = less than 0.5 percent
  • 30. - 28 - About one quarter of decision-makers expect that limiting the use of loss carryforwards will be harmful to their own companies, whereas about half believe it will not be very harmful and an additional quarter do not believe it will be harmful at all. None of the entrepreneurs interviewed assume that this change will have a very harmful impact on their own companies (Figure 26). Figure 26 Limiting the Use of Loss Carryforwards Would Be Harmful for About One out of Four Major Companies © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "And what impact will the proposed limitations on the use of loss carryforwards, in terms of both time and the maximum share of taxable income, have on your company? Do you think this measure will be ..." 23 % 48 3 Harmful Very harmful 26 Not very harmful Not harmful at all No response x x = less than 0.5 percent
  • 31. - 29 - On the whole, about half of Luxembourg business leaders do not expect that the proposed package of changes relating to the corporate tax will have any major impact on the country's competitiveness as a business location. An additional 23 percent expect a positive impact on the whole, while 18 percent anticipate a negative impact. No respondents expect the measures to have either a very positive or very negative impact (Figure 27). When it comes to their own companies, more than two thirds of Luxembourg decision-makers say the reform will have no impact on balance, as compared to only 15 percent who expect a positive impact and 12 percent who expect a negative impact. Here too, no respondents anticipate a very positive or very negative impact (Figure 28). Figure 27 Entrepreneurs Generally Do Not Expect that the Tax Reforms Will Have Any Impact on Luxembourg's Competitiveness © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "Overall, what impact will the proposed package of changes—that is, reducing the corporate income tax, increasing the minimum net wealth tax, along with limiting the use of loss carryforwards—have on Luxembourg's competitiveness as a business location?" 23 % 527 18 No response x Positive impact Very positive impact Neither positive nor negative impact Negative impact Very negative impact x x = less than 0.5 percent
  • 32. - 30 - Figure 28 Only a Minority of Decision-Makers Expect that the Tax Reforms Will Have Any Impact on Their Own Companies © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "What impact will the proposed package of changes—that is, reducing the corporate income tax, increasing the minimum net wealth tax, along with limiting the use of loss carryforwards—have on your company?" 15 % 70 3 12 No response x Positive impact Very positive impact Neither positive nor negative impact Negative impact Very negative impact x x = less than 0.5 percent
  • 33. - 31 - More flexible working hours are important—but the planned reform of the PAN law is viewed critically For almost three quarters of major Luxembourg companies, having greater flexibility regarding their employees' working hours would be important or even very important (Figure 29). Nevertheless, a majority rejects the government's proposed reform of the PAN law, which would allow companies to extend the period of reference, that is, the time in which employees' working time accounts must be balanced out, from one to four months (Figure 30). Figure 29 © IfD-Allensbach x = less than 0.5 percent Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG 39 33 % 3 For Almost Three Quarters of Major Companies, Having Greater Flexibility Regarding Working Hours Would Be (Very) Important Question: "How important would it be for your company to have greater flexibility regarding working hours?" Very important Not important at all Important Not very important No response 25 x
  • 34. - 32 - Figure 30 © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG 38 % The Majority Rejects the PAN Law Question: "The government's proposed reform of the law for more flexibility regarding working hours (Pan Law) would allow companies to expand the period of reference from 1 to 4 months. If companies decide to do so, their employees will receive an additional 3.5 vacation days in return. On the whole, do you think this provision is good or is it not good?" Good Not good 57 Not shown: "No response"
  • 35. - 33 - Business leaders are especially critical of the plan to compensate employees by giving them 3.5 additional vacation days. The great majority of those who are opposed to the plan would not give employees any compensation at all, or they would prefer that employees be given either some other means of compensation or one additional vacation day at most (Figure 31). Figure 31 © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Many Business Leaders Are Against Giving Additional Vacation Days as Compensation Question: "The government's proposed reform of the law for more flexibility regarding working hours (Pan Law) would allow companies to expand the period of reference from 1 to 4 months. If companies decide to do so, their employees will receive an additional 3.5 vacation days in return. What do you think would have been an appropriate way to compensate the companies' employees in return for more flexibility?" Good Not good Not shown: "No response" x = less than 0.5 percent On the whole, the proposed reform of the Pan Law is – No compensation 1 additional vacation day 2 days 3 days 3.5 days as proposed Other means of compensation 38 % 57 29 An appropriate way to compensate employees would have been – 13 10 5 xx
  • 36. - 34 - Moreover, even though about three quarters of major Luxembourg companies say that having greater flexibility regarding their employees' working hours is very important or important5 , only 11 percent currently state that their companies are likely or highly likely to implement this new provision (Figure 32). Figure 32 5 Cf. Figure 29 Only a Small Share of Business Leaders Currently Think that Their Companies Are Likely to Implement the New Provision © IfD-Allensbach Base: Total respondents Source: Luxembourg Business Compass by KPMG Question: "Do you plan to implement this new provision at your company?" 10 % 36 3 20 No response 2 Likely Highly likely Unlikely Highly unlikely Don't know yet 29
  • 37. - 35 - A P P E N D I X Survey data
  • 38. Overall respons- ibility for methods: Planning and draw- ing the sample: Group of persons interviewed (universe): Sampling method: Number of respondents: Type of interviews: Fieldwork dates: IfD Archives Survey No.: Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach KPMG Luxemburg Top decision-makers at the largest companies in Luxembourg, as defined by the number of employees Top-down approach stratified according to business sectors The sample was drawn based on the directory(*) of the Luxembourg statistics bureau (Statec), which lists companies with 90 employees or more in Luxembourg. For each business sector, the number of companies included in the survey was roughly commensurate with the sector's share of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Luxembourg, whereby the companies were selected in descending order according to the number of employees. In the companies selected to participate, every effort was made to persuade a representative of the upper management (owner, CEO, CFO, COO, etc.) to complete the online survey. 61 Online survey completed after prior notification in writing or by telephone May 26 – June 10, 2016 7246 (*) Les principaux employeurs au Luxembourg d’après l'effectif classés par branche d’activité économique de la NACE Rév.2 Situation au 1er janvier 2015 (édition juin 2015) SURVEY DATA