Bci NeBe conf 2017 thought provoking - results of bci siemens survey on megatrends and climate change v2 - l van shaik - j de wit - m crooymans sd

1. Results of the BCI Siemens Report on
Long Term Planning & Climate Change
Louise van Schaik
Johan de Wit
Michael Crooymans

2. Collaboration
• Siemens produced a bi-annual BCM survey in
NL
• Collaboration with BCI was a good match
• More than just a BCM survey – look to the
future – what do we need to deal with?
– Focus on long term planning / Climate change

3. Thanks
• Siemens
• BCI Research Staff
• The experts
• The respondents

4. GEOPOLITICAL BUSINESS RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
dr. Louise van Schaik, Presentation BCI Conference, 12
Sept, Vianen, the Netherlands

5. CLIMATE CHANGE RECOGNISED AS
BUSINESS CONTINUITY RISK
• Climate impacts & policies well recognised as
direct business risk & opportunity: supply
chain, costs of resources
• New: Geopolitical risks or opportunities from
severe climate impacts or a transition not
managed well

6. GEOPOLITICS: THE WORLD IS CHANGING!

7. RECOGNITION
The world is on the move
as a result of shifting
geopolitical and
economic power
relations
Ministry of Defence, In the interest of the
Netherlands
The world has become less
transparent and less
predictable as new
geopolitical and economic
powers have emerged and
the international balance
of power has shifted
Dutch International Security StrategyWEF risks 2017:
1. Environmental
2. Socio-Economic
3. Technological
4. Cooperation
McKinsey 2016:
“Geopolitical risks on
the rise”

8. CLINGENDAEL STRATEGIC MONITOR

9. GEOPOLITICAL RISKS RELATED TO
CLIMATE
• Threat multiplier: climate related to instability
in Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Arab Spring, Mali
(often via food & water scarcity)
• Migration (mainly regional)
• Low laying islands ceasing to exist (and the
military bases on their territory!)
• Arctic region: oil and sea lanes, contested
territory
• Pressure on fossil exporters? – Russia;
Venezuela; Iran vs. Saudi Arabia
• Trump withdrawal Paris Agreement jeopardises
global transition to low carbon economy?

10. RISKS UNCERTAINTY
• Transition will have losers.. & winners
– New business opportunities
• Exact impact on sectors, employment and
regions unknown (beware for the
unknowns of a transition!)
• Extra pressure on food, water, energy:
– Climate impacts put pressure on hydropower
capacity..
– Competition between food and fuel

11. IDENTIFYING GEOPOLITICAL CLIMATE
RISKS
• Which conflict prone territories are most at
risk in terms of climate vulnerability?
• Is the transition really taking off sufficiently
to alter energy interdependencies?
• How resilient are territories and are they
able to cope/ shift in time?
• For which territories might the departure
away from fossil be a blessing (resource
curse..; renewables potential)?

12. PRIVATE SECTOR CONTRIBUTION
• Private sector creates jobs, builds
infrastructure, insures risks in countries
stabilised
• Cooperate on risk analysis; supply chain/
operational and market risks & early
warning mechanisms of govs
• Call for diplomatic action UN, EU, NL GOV;
bolster conflict prevention tools, resilience of
countries at risk & peace building

13. CONTACT DETAILS
Dr. Louise van Schaik
Head Clingendael Sustainability Research
Tel: +31 (0)70 – 374 6691
Mob: +31 (0)6 1696 2822
lschaik@clingendael.nl
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
See also: https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/

14. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
How do organizations approach climate
change as part of long-term planning?
Presentation Siemens/BCI survey 2017, Johan de Wit, Siemens Nederland

15. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Society’s dependence on digital systems
“Crucial societal processes come to a stop if supporting
ICT –systems break down and analog alternatives are not
available.”
Reference:
Cybersecuritybeeld Nederland
2015, Nationaal Cyber Security
Centrum, 2015

16. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Siemens Corporate Structure
Power
and Gas
Wind
Power and
Renewable
Energy
Mngt.
Building
Techn.
Mobility Digital
Factory
Process
Industries
and Drives
Power Generation
Healthcare

17. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Siemens Building Technologies
Fire safety
Security
Comfort
Energy efficiency
 Fire, smoke and gas detection
 Evacuation
 Extinguishing
 Danger management
 Access control
 Video surveillance
 Intrusion detection
 Scanning & detection
 Building management / automation
 Heating, ventilation, air conditioning
 Lighting and shading
 Energy Saving Performance Contracting
 Energy management
 Energy consulting
For energy-efficient and safe buildings
and infrastructures

18. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Siemens Building Technologies & Business Continuity
Reference: Aandacht voor Business
Continuity, Siemens 2017

19. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Megatrends – Challenges that are transforming our world
Digitalization
By 2020, the digital universe will
reach 44 zettabytes – a tenfold
increase from 2013.1
Urbanization
By 2050, 70 percent of the world's
population will live in cities
(today it’s 54 percent).3
Demographic change
The earth’s population will increase
from 7.3 billion2 people today to
9.7 billion2 in 2050. Average life
expectancy will then be 83 years.2
Globalization
The volume of world trade nearly
doubled between 2005 and 2014.5
Climate change
According to scientists, in the
summer of 2016, the Earth's
atmosphere had the highest CO2
concentration in 800,000 years.4
Sources:
1. IDC, The Digital Universe of Opportunities: Rich Data and the Increasing Value of the Internet of Things,
April 2014
2. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015).
World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables.
Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.241
3. United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects. The 2014 Revision, New York, published 2015
4. SCRIPPS INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY, “The Keeling Curve”, July 30th, 2016
5. UNCTAD Statistics, Values and shares of merchandise exports and imports from 1948 to 2014,
November 10, 2015

20. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Personal introduction
Johan de Wit MSSM
Solution Manager
Enterprise Security
Siemens Nederland N.V.
Building Technologies Division
Prinses Beatrixlaan 800, Den Haag
Postbus 16068
2500 BB Den Haag, Nederland
Mobiel: +31 6 55 76 60 29
johan.de.wit@siemens.com
Building 31
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
The Netherlands
Johan de Wit
PhD Candidate / Researcher
Safety and Security Science Group
j.j.dewit@tudelft.nl
M +31 (0)6 55 76 60 29
Faculty of Technology, Policy
and Management
Main responsibilities as Solution manager:
• (international) Sales Support, from consultancy to implementation
• (international) Portfolio management Siemens BT
• Siemens representation in comities, norm/standard organizations,
congresses, media etc.

21. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
The BCI – Siemens Report
My organization sees the value of
horizon scanning
75%
I see the need for clear, explicit processes that
enable us to perform longer term planning
73%
We engage with our suppliers and their
supply chains in longer term planning
55%
Longer term planning (> 5 years):

22. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
The BCI – Siemens Report
Our top management is forward-looking and is
committed to longer term planning
48%
How far ahead does your organization plan in
terms of risks and its business impacts?
7%
We have budget, resources and time to
engage in longer term planning
36%
Longer term planning (> 5 years):
Only 1%
Strongly agrees!

23. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
The BCI – Siemens Report
Our organization is concerned about
climate change and its impacts.
65%
My organization thinks that climate change is
an important issue now
58%
My organization has done enough to consider
and anticipate the effects of climate change
21%
Climate change and impacts:
Only 2%
Strongly agrees!

24. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Physical
risks
Reference: Task Force on
Climate reated Financial
Disclosures 2016
What is your role in the future?

25. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Physical
risks
Strategic
risks
Strategic
opportunities
Reference: Task Force on
Climate reated Financial
Disclosures 2016

26. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
What will be the position of your organization?
Reference (based on):
From risk to resillience:
learning to deal with
disruptions 2015

27. Unrestricted © Siemens AG 2017
Thank you for your attention!
John Doe
Job title
Group / Region / Department
XY
Street 123
12345 City
Phone: +49 123 45 67 89
Fax: +49 123 45 67 89
Mobile: +49 123 45 67 89 0
E-mail:
john.doe@siemens.com
Johan de Wit
Solution Manager
Enterprise Security
Siemens Building Technologies
Phone: +31 (70) 333 12 36
Mobile: +31 (6) 55 76 60 29
E-mail:
johan.de.wit@siemens.com
www.siemens.nl/bcmonderzoek

28. How does this impact Business
Continuity Professionals?
Michael Crooymans
Snr BCM Consultant - Sogeti
Board Member - BCI Nl/Be Chapter

29. BCM and Climate Change?

30. What does this have to with BCM?
• Climate Change isn’t threatening my
organisation now
• What are the threats to my organisation
• Are my recovery facilities also threatened by
the same events?
• Can I use my recovery facilities?
• How is my supply chain threatened?

31. Short term – long term?

32. Unexpected?

33. Possible Impacts

34. Engaging with Supply Chain

35. Collaboration?

36. THANK YOU
• Climate change is affecting us
• BCM needs to be involved in long term decisions
– Michael Crooymans
– Michael.crooymans@sogeti.com
– +31 (0)6 2220 6960

37. This presentation was delivered at a
BCI event
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events please visit our website