overview of risk perception with emphasis on COVID-19

1. Risk Perception of COVID-19
Prepared by
Tengku Hanidza Tengku Ismail, PhD
Public Opinion on Coronavirus:
Understanding COVID-19 from the
perspective of people and society

2. Perception: Different ways we interpret things
that we see and feel
Two
faces
vase
I am
right!
21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 2

3. It’s like Thanos snapping his
fingers. People we know are
disappearing”
(A Wuhan young resident talking
out people who died in Wuhan due
to COVID-19,
only to be known after
lifting of lockdown on April 8)
Thanos is a Marvel character
that has the ability to swipe out
lives with the snap of his fingers
21/4/2020
risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza
3

4. The Importance of Risk Perception
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5. • In the early phases of a possible epidemic, compliance to
precautionary behaviours among the populations at risk is often
the only means of prevention of a further spread of the disease
• Effective management of new epidemic infectious disease risks in
the phase that no treatment or vaccination is yet possible is
largely dependent on precautionary behavior of the population.
• Implementation of precautionary behavior is largely dependent
on effective risk communication, i.e. communication that induces
realistic risk perceptions, correct knowledge and skills to promote
and enable precautionary practices. Scientific knowledge about
these topics in the area of infectious disease control is scarce.
• For people to voluntarily engage in precautionary actions, they
first of all need to be aware of the risk.
This is the situation
right now we are
dealing with COVID-
19
Since COVID-19 is
novel, we learn new
things each day as the
world ride the COVID-
19 pandemic
Treatment is by trial
and error
COVID-19 vaccine is
not possible till 2021
In earlier stage of
outbreak and even
after WHO declare
COVID_19 as
pandemic, people do
not take is seriously21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 5

6. • Unwarranted high-risk perceptions may lead
to unnecessary mass scares, and are often
combined with stigmatization of specific risk
groups.
• Risk communication messages that are not
comprehended by the public at risk, or
communication of conflicting risk messages
will result in lack of precautionary actions.
• Communications that are perceived as coming
from a non-trustworthy source may have the
same results.
Since COVID-19
outbreak,, they was
increase in verbal abuse
against ‘Chinese looking’
people
Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah
(Malaysia), Dr. Anthony Fauci
(USA), and Ashley Bloomfield (NZ)
has been named “top doctors” by
China Global TV Network for their
competency in handling the Covid-
19 pandemic. They are “calm,
clear and trustworthy” sources of
information to their countrymen.
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7. IS IT IMPORTANT TO KNOW
PUBLIC OPINION? Examining
the TRUST and FEAR factors
during COVID-19 crisis
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9. What do we mean by trust in government during
COVID-19 crisis?
• Trust in government represents confidence of citizens in the actions of
a “government to do what is right and perceived fair.” It is a subjective
matter, reflected in the “eyes of the beholder” that matters especially to
the extent that it shapes behaviour.
• Trust in government could improve compliance with rules and
regulations and reduce the cost of enforcement.
• Trust is based on perception, measured by perception surveys.
(Source: TRUST IN GOVERNMENT, POLICY EFFECTIVENESS AND THE GOVERNANCE AGENDA, OECD, 2013)
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10. “Calm, Clear and Trustworthy”
The faces of their country's response to Covid-19: How the
public perceive them.
A“trusted face” by Malaysians
Low-key image and
unassuming air
“We are lucky to have him”
Rely on facts and figures to
make decisions and inform
the public
“Bulkwark against confusion“
“warrior, an "inspiration", and
a "true hero of the country".
People are “worried” whenever
they don’t see him during White
House briefings
Voices of reason and sources of
calm and reassurance in often
conflicting messages
“America’s coronavirus crush”
“national treasure”
Get him voted as People
Magazine’s Sexiest Man Alive
2020.
Low key ways
“Mild-mannered health care
hero"
“Diligent” and “clear” responses
when speaking to the press
Petitioning to be named “New
Zealander of the Year”.
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12. Scientific studies on COVID-19 public perceptions surveys
• Measuring world wide COVID-19: Attitude and Beliefs (Covid-19
survey.com
• Understanding COVID-19 risk perception (Europe J Inf Dis Surv Epi
Prev Control)
• Tracking UK Public perception (Ipsos.com)
• Statistica.com
• Pew Research Center (USA)
• RTI International (USA)
• Malaysia (Min. of Health, Department of Statistics)
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13. Figures only show countries with at least 200 respondents
each.
Data collected between March 20th and March 30th 2020.
All averages are weighted by country-population age and
gender (weighting in terms of income and education to be
added soon)
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14. What happens when citizens don’t trust their government?
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15. How factually truthful do you
think your country's government
has been about the coronavirus
outbreak?
CHN
ITA
UK
SG
USA
IND
MY
SPN
Political trust
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16. How much do you trust your country’s
government to take care of its citizens?
UK
ITA
CHN
USA
MY
SG
IND
SPN
Political trust
21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 16

17. Do you think the reaction of your
country’s government to the current
coronavirus outbreak is appropriate,
too extreme, or not sufficient?
CHN
ITA
SG
MY
SPN
UK
IND
USA
Political trust
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18. Political trust
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19. The MCO effectiveness depends on the extent
to which people see them as fair and legitimate
enough to outweigh the benefits of non-
compliance.
A decline in trust can lead to lower rates of
compliance with rules and regulations.
How much citizens and businesses are trusted
by government is reflected in how government
functions and how public services are organized
as well as their efficiency and effectiveness –
e.g. the use of self-regulation and self-
monitoring
Political trust
21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 19

20. Do you think the reaction of
your country’s public is
appropriate, too extreme, or
not sufficient?
SPN
ITA
CHN
SG
UK
USA
IND
MY
Social trust
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21. The FEAR
factor
will it affect
change in
behavior?
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22. FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor
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23. FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor
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24. FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor
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25. Take note of the disparity between age and gender groups
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FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor

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FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor

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FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor

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FEAR/SCARE/THREAT factor

29. Are we willing to change our behaviour to
fight COVID-19 infection?
The surveys say…….
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34. How effective are social distancing
measures (e.g., through a general curfew)
to slow down the spread of the coronavirus?
USA
CHN
ITA
IND
SPN
MY UK
SG
21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 34

35. How do we communicate health crisis information on
COVID-19? Are we informed citizen?
The perception of risk among affected populations often differs from that of
experts and authorities. Effective risk communication and community
engagement can help bridge that gap by determining what people know,
how they feel, and what they do in response to disease outbreaks, as well
as what they ought to know and do to bring the outbreak under control.
Effective risk communication and community engagement helps transform
and deliver complex scientific knowledge so that it is understood by,
accessible to, and trusted by populations and communities.
People have the right to be informed about and understand the health
risks that they and their loved ones face (WHO, Mar 19).
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36. Six guiding principles for crisis communication (CDC):
(1) Be first: provide information as soon as possible or, if not possible,
explain how you are working to get it and when.
(2) Be right: tell people what you know when you know it, tell them
what you don't know, and tell them if you will know later.
(3) Be credible: tell the truth.
(4) Express empathy: acknowledge what people are feeling.
(5) Promote action: give people relevant things to do.
(6) Show respect: involve stakeholders in decision making processes
and try to meet media deadlines.
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37. The roles of media/press and social media on COVID-19 information dissemination
21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 37
The power of social media – with its astounding reach and
lack of filters – is surging.

38. 21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 38
Messages that convey a moral
imperative for people to act and
messages that evoke strong
emotional reactions are more likely
to be and
Social media messaging by
authorities may not be beneficial
for knowledge, can reduce
perceptions of credibility and may
increase focus on panic and
uncertainty
A strong tendency for news outlets
to focus on information and
explanation, with little coverage of
expressions of empathy.
The roles of media/press and social media on COVID-19 information dissemination

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Social media has proved
effective not effective for
official communication
during outbreaks?
Offers potential for rapid
information dissemination.
Information more likely to
experience fear and anger?

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• Each person’s chance of contracting the virus
depends not only on their own behavior, but also
on the behavior of their fellow citizens. The
behavior is about “we” and “us” rather than “I” or
“you”.
• Ongoing scientific debate about whether ‘fear
appeals’ generate long-term behavior change.
• Evidence shows that ‘empathy appeals’ can have
positive impacts on behavior change
• Downplaying risk may undermine efforts to
change behavior, but overstating it could increase
economic and social costs

43. 21/4/2020 risk perception COVID-19/Tengku Hanidza 43
The behaviors of the public are important for
outbreak management, particularly during the
early phase when no treatment or vaccination
is available and non pharmaceutical
interventions are the only options. The
efficacy of non pharmaceutical interventions
depends on persons’ degree of engagement
and compliance in precautionary behaviors,
such as face-mask wearing, hand hygiene,
and self-isolation. Willingness to engage in
precautionary behaviors voluntarily depends
on risk perception toward the current health
threat. In fact, risk perception is a main theme
in common health behavior theories

44. How society respond to COVID-19 crisis: The CLD
(Causal Loop Diagram) Model
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An integrated approach to preventing and responding to COVID-19

45. The approach LOOKS
COMPLICATED
but
it is EASIER to
UNDERSTAND because
we are DOING IT right
now in battling COVID-19
Lets break it down ….
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