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BW9
Test & QA
6/7/2017 2:45:00 PM
BW9 Drive Product Improvements with
Telemetry
Presented by:
Ken Johnston
Microsoft
Brought to you by:
350 Corporate Way, Suite 400, Orange Park, FL 32073
888-­‐268-­‐8770 ·∙ 904-­‐278-­‐0524 - info@techwell.com - https://www.techwell.com/
Ken Johnston
Microsoft
Ken Johnston is a principal data science manager on the Microsoft core data
science team where he and his team focus their research on Windows post sales
monetization and device usage in the commercial and education segments. Since
joining Microsoft in 1998 Ken's roles have included GPM for Bing data quality and
measurements; group manager for Bing shopping and data operations; test lead
and test manager on MSN, hosted exchange, subscription and billing platform,
and office products. He previously served as the Microsoft director of test
excellence. Ken is a frequent presenter, a regular blogger, coauthor of How We
Test Software at Microsoft, and contributor to Experiences of Test Automation:
Case Studies of Software Test Automation. Contact Ken on Twitter @rkjohnston.
6/14/2017
1
Drive Product Improvements
with Telemetry
Th D S i B hi d Th
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
The Data Science Behind The
Windows 10 Bistro
3 Great Loves
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
2
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
3
Las Vegas has Great Restaurants
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
You 
sho ldshould 
open a 
Restaurant
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Restaurant
6/14/2017
4
Open a Restaurant Together
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6 Keys to Success
Safe & Private Location Listen to our past
Customers
Taste Test the New
Menu
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Big Grand Opening Listen to Feedback Grow the Business
6/14/2017
5
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Privacy=Personal Security
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
6
Privacy is in the Users Hands
Windows as a Service
Most people just use services and
trus them to maintain privacy
Windows is evolving to be aWindows is evolving to be a
service.
Official Position:
1. Windows 10 collects
information so the product will
work better for you.
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
http://www.winbeta.org/news/how-check-
and-adjust-your-privacy-settings-windows-10
f y
2. You are in control with the
ability to determine what
information is collected.
A Look Inside the Kitchen
•Opt Out features
Random Sampling Rates•Random Sampling Rates
•Data Scrubbing at
Ingestion
•PII Purging
N T t d M k ti
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
•No Targeted Marketing
6/14/2017
7
Three Levels of Telemetry
Using the Data
Level 1 is heartbeat.
• Is the Device Alive
Level 1: PC Census Data (Very Limited Data Points)
Auto-populated by the platform
DeviceID, DateTime, OS SKU, Make & Model of PC, etc
• How many win 10 PCs do we have
in the world.
Level 2 is system configuration and usage
• Trend in Hardware
• Driver Stability
• App Popularity for App compat
validation
Level 2: Software & Hardware (Dozens of Data
Points)
Network connection Type, Disk Configuration, Activity start/stop,
system Carsh, etc.
Level 3: App Level (Hundreds of Data Points)
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Level 3 is App Level
• Are the apps actually used
• What features of the apps are
popular
• App Hangs, Crashes, and
Abandonment traced to OS features
Level 3: App Level (Hundreds of Data Points)
Used for component specific data
Feature Specific Error Codes, etc.
Sometimes structured for eventing, sometimes free-form for
tracing
App Crash or Hang
High Level Data Platform Diagram
Alterting
DB
Common
encrypts
ntationpoints
Map Reduce Job Manager
Super Fast Data
AlertingCrash
Data
Big Data
Aggregat
e
Streams Quality
Business
Insights
nPowerBIDashboard
owsCommonTelemetryClient-
ybeforesendingitup,instrumen
scannedforPIIviolations
Big Data Cloud
(Cosmos)
Secured to
Data Scientists
Map Reduce Job Manager
(USQL)
Level2&3Usage
Data
A&Big
ata
TelemetryWebFrontEnd
AlgosdroppingPII
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Apps
Insights
Analyze
(SQL)
App Team
Power BI
Dashboard
s
Report,
Visualize &
Collaborate
Instrument
Windo
telemetry
Crash Data has PII
risk so locked down
Store, Transform & CorrelateCollect
Debug&
LogsDa
6/14/2017
8
Kitchen Safety First
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
9
Must Listen to all your Customers
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Three Sources of Text Data
• Social media carried a
strong signal different than
Social (Twitter + 
strong signal different than
SIUF or UIF
• SIUF and UIF were our
engaged users. Very
different population
Forums)
SIUF (System Initiated 
User Feedback)
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
different population
UIF (User Initiated 
Feedback)
6/14/2017
10
Developed the Windows Insider Program
[Jan 21 2015]Since we
launched the Windows Insider
Program in September [2014],
we’ve been joined by 1.7
million Windows Insiders,
who have delivered over
800,000 pieces of feedback.
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Insider are over 4 million now
Insiders Feedback
Tool
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Feedback on 
Feedback
6/14/2017
11
SysSieve Architecture
KNOWLEDGE BUILDING PHASE
Repeated 
Knowledge Ontology1 2 3
TROUBLE TICKET
REPOSITORY
Phrase 
Extraction
Knowledge 
Discovery
Ontology 
Modeling
Goal: Find frequently
occurring phrases
power supply unit is faulty <power supply unit is faulty>
Goal: Find phrases
important in the
“networking” domain
• ENTITY: power supply unit
Goal: Semantic
interpretation of the
domain-specific phrases
1 2 3
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
… power supply unit is faulty…
… access router inoperative…
… run config script …
… is to inform you that there …
<power supply unit is faulty>
<access router inoperative>
<run config script>
• ENTITY: power supply unit
-> STATE: faulty
• ENTITY: access router ->
CONDITION: inoperative
• ENTITY: config script ->
ACTION: run
MS Research ‐ http://research.microsoft.com/en‐us/um/people/navendu/syssieve/
Step – II: Knowledge Discovery
• Goal: Find phrases important in the current 
domain to do problem inference
Phrase Important?
• Challenges:
– Filter meaningful phrases from noisy ones
– Expert‐labeling is time‐consuming 
• Approach (19M phrases  5 6K phrases)
power disruption on 
access router
key corruption due to 
expired certificate
bad memory on server
prior communication
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston22
• Approach: (19M phrases  5.6K phrases)
1. Apply a pipeline of linguistic filters
2. Rank phrases by importance using 
information theoretic measures
prior communication
best regards
informing you that
6/14/2017
12
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Taste Test = Flighting
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
13
What does Device OS Flighting mean?
Deploying the latest code, scripts and diagnostics to
a range of audiences. From internal self-hosters to
2. Staged Deployment. Verify the
quality of a new component or change
by sending to a specific sample
di ( i l l
g
external “test pilots”.
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
audience (or progressively larger
audiences).
Who do you want to flight to?
Everyone
Selfhost is here
OSG
Microsoft
External
Test Pilots
y
Engineer
Team
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
14
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Reservation System
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
15
The Funnel Patch Ready for Win 10
Update GDR
Reservation Notification
Targeted Devices with High Likelihood of success
>1 billion Eligible Windows 7‐8.1 Devices *
• Exceeded Target of 60 million 
i
User 
Initiated
Upgrade Starts
Bandwidth
Background Download
reservations
• Flooded Internet on Day 1
• > 80,000,000 upgrades within 
weeks of launch
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Initiated
110M
Upgrade Success
• Watch the Funnel every day
• Enterprise Upgrade Blockers
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
16
Net Promotor SATs
Word Cloud Example
The upgrade went quickly and smoothly, the UI is clean and intuitive, 
Edge and Continuum are a joy to use, and Cortana and the stock apps 
Easy upgrade
are a great! It's a great experience.
Very impressed. Smooth, clean interface. The Nervous Nellies clinging 
to Win7 should finally be able to put on big boy pants :)
Fast and clean
The UI is clean and simple to use And it's fast
It installed flawlessly, works out of the box, moves fast and it is a great 
experience overall. Great job!
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Great desktop OS again: start menu is back, apps don't fill screen, 
virtual desktops. Even better touch‐device OS than Windows 8.1: date, 
time, notifications, wifi always visible on start screen. Notifications are 
great! Transition between tablet and desktop mode is great!
Start menu
The UI is clean and simple to use. And it s fast.
Net Promotor DSATs
Word Cloud Example
“You made too many changes. I can't find anything. I 
am so frustrated and angry that I accepted your 
offer. I wish I could go back to the way I had it.”
“I find that it can be too confusing to those who just 
want simple when it comes to their electronics.”
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
“Have not had enough time with the product yet to 
form an opinion.”
6/14/2017
17
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Free Samples as a part of CAC
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
18
ARPU vs. ARPD
Average Revenue Per User
• Revenue Per Month (RPM)
Average Revenue Per Device
• Revenue Per Month (RPM)( )
• Active Users (AU)
• User Churn Rate in Months (Uchurn)
• Customer Acquisition Costs
RPM/AU=ARPU
ARPU*Uchurn=Lifetime Value
( )
• Active Devices (AD )
• User Churn Rate in Months (Uchurn)
• Customer Acquisition Costs
RPM/AD=ARPD
ARPD*Uchurn=Lifetime Value
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
ARPU Uchurn=Lifetime Value
LTV – CAC = Gross Profit per User
ARPD Uchurn=Lifetime Value
LTV – CAC = Gross Profit per User
Bing Revenue is >50% Anonymous
Same Store Sales
Without Total $$sWithout Total $$s
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
19
Boosted Trees Classification
• The matched data is ~40% of‐ ‐ ‐
‐ ‐ ‐
the total devices
• 45% of our matched data
have revenues > 0
• We trained a binary classifier
on the matched and predicted
on the unmatched
40%
+ + +
55%
‐ ‐ ‐
‐ ‐ ‐
‐ ‐ ‐
‐ ‐ ‐
~40
~60
%
+ + +
+ + +
+ + +
‐ ‐ ‐
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
on the unmatched.
• Cross Validation results: 73%
precision and 74% positive
recall.
60%
45%
+ + +
+ + +
+ + +
%
Big Data Cooking
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6/14/2017
20
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
6 Keys to Success
Safe & Private Location Listen to our past
Customers
Taste Test the New
Menu
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
Big Grand Opening Listen to Feedback Grow the Business
6/14/2017
21
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
NEWS: Microsoft has more Data Scientists…
#WindowsBistro @RKJohnston

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Drive Product Improvements with Telemetry

  • 1. BW9 Test & QA 6/7/2017 2:45:00 PM BW9 Drive Product Improvements with Telemetry Presented by: Ken Johnston Microsoft Brought to you by: 350 Corporate Way, Suite 400, Orange Park, FL 32073 888-­‐268-­‐8770 ·∙ 904-­‐278-­‐0524 - info@techwell.com - https://www.techwell.com/
  • 2. Ken Johnston Microsoft Ken Johnston is a principal data science manager on the Microsoft core data science team where he and his team focus their research on Windows post sales monetization and device usage in the commercial and education segments. Since joining Microsoft in 1998 Ken's roles have included GPM for Bing data quality and measurements; group manager for Bing shopping and data operations; test lead and test manager on MSN, hosted exchange, subscription and billing platform, and office products. He previously served as the Microsoft director of test excellence. Ken is a frequent presenter, a regular blogger, coauthor of How We Test Software at Microsoft, and contributor to Experiences of Test Automation: Case Studies of Software Test Automation. Contact Ken on Twitter @rkjohnston.
  • 3. 6/14/2017 1 Drive Product Improvements with Telemetry Th D S i B hi d Th #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston The Data Science Behind The Windows 10 Bistro 3 Great Loves #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 5. 6/14/2017 3 Las Vegas has Great Restaurants #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston You  sho ldshould  open a  Restaurant #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Restaurant
  • 6. 6/14/2017 4 Open a Restaurant Together #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston 6 Keys to Success Safe & Private Location Listen to our past Customers Taste Test the New Menu #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Big Grand Opening Listen to Feedback Grow the Business
  • 8. 6/14/2017 6 Privacy is in the Users Hands Windows as a Service Most people just use services and trus them to maintain privacy Windows is evolving to be aWindows is evolving to be a service. Official Position: 1. Windows 10 collects information so the product will work better for you. #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston http://www.winbeta.org/news/how-check- and-adjust-your-privacy-settings-windows-10 f y 2. You are in control with the ability to determine what information is collected. A Look Inside the Kitchen •Opt Out features Random Sampling Rates•Random Sampling Rates •Data Scrubbing at Ingestion •PII Purging N T t d M k ti #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston •No Targeted Marketing
  • 9. 6/14/2017 7 Three Levels of Telemetry Using the Data Level 1 is heartbeat. • Is the Device Alive Level 1: PC Census Data (Very Limited Data Points) Auto-populated by the platform DeviceID, DateTime, OS SKU, Make & Model of PC, etc • How many win 10 PCs do we have in the world. Level 2 is system configuration and usage • Trend in Hardware • Driver Stability • App Popularity for App compat validation Level 2: Software & Hardware (Dozens of Data Points) Network connection Type, Disk Configuration, Activity start/stop, system Carsh, etc. Level 3: App Level (Hundreds of Data Points) #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Level 3 is App Level • Are the apps actually used • What features of the apps are popular • App Hangs, Crashes, and Abandonment traced to OS features Level 3: App Level (Hundreds of Data Points) Used for component specific data Feature Specific Error Codes, etc. Sometimes structured for eventing, sometimes free-form for tracing App Crash or Hang High Level Data Platform Diagram Alterting DB Common encrypts ntationpoints Map Reduce Job Manager Super Fast Data AlertingCrash Data Big Data Aggregat e Streams Quality Business Insights nPowerBIDashboard owsCommonTelemetryClient- ybeforesendingitup,instrumen scannedforPIIviolations Big Data Cloud (Cosmos) Secured to Data Scientists Map Reduce Job Manager (USQL) Level2&3Usage Data A&Big ata TelemetryWebFrontEnd AlgosdroppingPII #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Apps Insights Analyze (SQL) App Team Power BI Dashboard s Report, Visualize & Collaborate Instrument Windo telemetry Crash Data has PII risk so locked down Store, Transform & CorrelateCollect Debug& LogsDa
  • 10. 6/14/2017 8 Kitchen Safety First #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 11. 6/14/2017 9 Must Listen to all your Customers #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Three Sources of Text Data • Social media carried a strong signal different than Social (Twitter +  strong signal different than SIUF or UIF • SIUF and UIF were our engaged users. Very different population Forums) SIUF (System Initiated  User Feedback) #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston different population UIF (User Initiated  Feedback)
  • 12. 6/14/2017 10 Developed the Windows Insider Program [Jan 21 2015]Since we launched the Windows Insider Program in September [2014], we’ve been joined by 1.7 million Windows Insiders, who have delivered over 800,000 pieces of feedback. #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Insider are over 4 million now Insiders Feedback Tool #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Feedback on  Feedback
  • 13. 6/14/2017 11 SysSieve Architecture KNOWLEDGE BUILDING PHASE Repeated  Knowledge Ontology1 2 3 TROUBLE TICKET REPOSITORY Phrase  Extraction Knowledge  Discovery Ontology  Modeling Goal: Find frequently occurring phrases power supply unit is faulty <power supply unit is faulty> Goal: Find phrases important in the “networking” domain • ENTITY: power supply unit Goal: Semantic interpretation of the domain-specific phrases 1 2 3 #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston … power supply unit is faulty… … access router inoperative… … run config script … … is to inform you that there … <power supply unit is faulty> <access router inoperative> <run config script> • ENTITY: power supply unit -> STATE: faulty • ENTITY: access router -> CONDITION: inoperative • ENTITY: config script -> ACTION: run MS Research ‐ http://research.microsoft.com/en‐us/um/people/navendu/syssieve/ Step – II: Knowledge Discovery • Goal: Find phrases important in the current  domain to do problem inference Phrase Important? • Challenges: – Filter meaningful phrases from noisy ones – Expert‐labeling is time‐consuming  • Approach (19M phrases  5 6K phrases) power disruption on  access router key corruption due to  expired certificate bad memory on server prior communication #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston22 • Approach: (19M phrases  5.6K phrases) 1. Apply a pipeline of linguistic filters 2. Rank phrases by importance using  information theoretic measures prior communication best regards informing you that
  • 14. 6/14/2017 12 #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Taste Test = Flighting #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 15. 6/14/2017 13 What does Device OS Flighting mean? Deploying the latest code, scripts and diagnostics to a range of audiences. From internal self-hosters to 2. Staged Deployment. Verify the quality of a new component or change by sending to a specific sample di ( i l l g external “test pilots”. #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston audience (or progressively larger audiences). Who do you want to flight to? Everyone Selfhost is here OSG Microsoft External Test Pilots y Engineer Team #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 17. 6/14/2017 15 The Funnel Patch Ready for Win 10 Update GDR Reservation Notification Targeted Devices with High Likelihood of success >1 billion Eligible Windows 7‐8.1 Devices * • Exceeded Target of 60 million  i User  Initiated Upgrade Starts Bandwidth Background Download reservations • Flooded Internet on Day 1 • > 80,000,000 upgrades within  weeks of launch #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Initiated 110M Upgrade Success • Watch the Funnel every day • Enterprise Upgrade Blockers #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 18. 6/14/2017 16 Net Promotor SATs Word Cloud Example The upgrade went quickly and smoothly, the UI is clean and intuitive,  Edge and Continuum are a joy to use, and Cortana and the stock apps  Easy upgrade are a great! It's a great experience. Very impressed. Smooth, clean interface. The Nervous Nellies clinging  to Win7 should finally be able to put on big boy pants :) Fast and clean The UI is clean and simple to use And it's fast It installed flawlessly, works out of the box, moves fast and it is a great  experience overall. Great job! #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Great desktop OS again: start menu is back, apps don't fill screen,  virtual desktops. Even better touch‐device OS than Windows 8.1: date,  time, notifications, wifi always visible on start screen. Notifications are  great! Transition between tablet and desktop mode is great! Start menu The UI is clean and simple to use. And it s fast. Net Promotor DSATs Word Cloud Example “You made too many changes. I can't find anything. I  am so frustrated and angry that I accepted your  offer. I wish I could go back to the way I had it.” “I find that it can be too confusing to those who just  want simple when it comes to their electronics.” #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston “Have not had enough time with the product yet to  form an opinion.”
  • 19. 6/14/2017 17 #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Free Samples as a part of CAC #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 20. 6/14/2017 18 ARPU vs. ARPD Average Revenue Per User • Revenue Per Month (RPM) Average Revenue Per Device • Revenue Per Month (RPM)( ) • Active Users (AU) • User Churn Rate in Months (Uchurn) • Customer Acquisition Costs RPM/AU=ARPU ARPU*Uchurn=Lifetime Value ( ) • Active Devices (AD ) • User Churn Rate in Months (Uchurn) • Customer Acquisition Costs RPM/AD=ARPD ARPD*Uchurn=Lifetime Value #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston ARPU Uchurn=Lifetime Value LTV – CAC = Gross Profit per User ARPD Uchurn=Lifetime Value LTV – CAC = Gross Profit per User Bing Revenue is >50% Anonymous Same Store Sales Without Total $$sWithout Total $$s #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 21. 6/14/2017 19 Boosted Trees Classification • The matched data is ~40% of‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ the total devices • 45% of our matched data have revenues > 0 • We trained a binary classifier on the matched and predicted on the unmatched 40% + + + 55% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ~40 ~60 % + + + + + + + + + ‐ ‐ ‐ #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston on the unmatched. • Cross Validation results: 73% precision and 74% positive recall. 60% 45% + + + + + + + + + % Big Data Cooking #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston
  • 22. 6/14/2017 20 #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston 6 Keys to Success Safe & Private Location Listen to our past Customers Taste Test the New Menu #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston Big Grand Opening Listen to Feedback Grow the Business
  • 23. 6/14/2017 21 #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston NEWS: Microsoft has more Data Scientists… #WindowsBistro @RKJohnston