A presentation by Michael Kahn at the biennale 2015 Taylor & Francis Editorial Indaba in Cape Town on 24 March.

1. Michael Kahn
CREST and DST/NRF CoE in Scientometrics & Science Policy
Stellenbosch University
mjkahn@sun.ac.za

2. Thechanging socio-economic landscape
Pre 1994
Extractive institutions: zero growth; high inequality; high
absolute poverty
Apartheid Balkanization
Inward focused economy
Post 1994
Nominally inclusive institutions; low growth; high inequality;
reduced absolute poverty
Rapid urbanization
Open economy – growth of TNCs; BRICS

3. Research&Innovation system
Universities
Public
labs/government
Private
sector
CIVIL
SOCIETY

4. Framework conditions & ‘Inputs’
‘People’ – actors, institutions and intermediaries
Finance – state, private, ‘own,’ offshore
Capital assets – infrastructure (comms; libraries; labs; utilities)
Macro-economic fundamentals
Regulatory system inc. IPR, standards, ethics
Incentive systems

5. Thechanging contract between science
andsociety
Pre 1994
Early - science in modernizing ‘South Africanism’ (Dubow)
Later – ‘own’ science and science for the war machine (Kahn)
Incentives: Rating system; Journal subsidy
Post 1994
RDP days – ‘Science for a democratic South Africa’ guided by
the Republic of Science
GEAR days – instrumentalist science; ‘big technology’ plus
‘own science;’ AIDS denialism
Later - ‘own’ science and BIG SCIENCE
Incentives: Rating system; Journal subsidy; Competitive
funding; Research Chairs; CoEs

6. Scenario 1:Innovation Hub
• South Africa’s comparatively developed infrastructure creates
opportunities for strategic regional development. South Africa
has a comparatively developed capacity for scientific and
technological innovation.
• This capacity creates opportunities for strategic regional
investment to build on the S&T skills base and knowledge
yielding a comparative advantage and a competitive edge
regionally and globally.
• The innovation hub explores the building of collective regional
strategic investment and indigenous technology capacity. It
considers the emergence of excellence in scientific research and
discourse, new human resources development and application of
policy instruments geared towards solving the socio-economic
problems of the region.
•

7. Scenario 2:FrozenRevolution
• This scenario highlights the effect of the non-implementation of
government policy on socio-economic upliftment, that is the
masses become dissatisfied and key players operate in a
fragmented and individually focused manner.
• The Frozen Revolution scenario depicts a situation where the
government is trying to address social and economic upliftment
through endless policy formulation processes. Policy paralysis,
manifested in general non-delivery, and some populist projects,
ultimately leads to stagnation, and a widening gap between the
élite and the masses.
• For Science and Technology this means “hobby horse” projects
and vote-catching projects with a continued reduction in
resources leading to the demise of the S&T system.

8. Scenario 3:Global Home
• Government embraces global liberalisation and facilitates private
sector empowerment to respond to market forces, in line with
global trends and opportunities.
• The scenario recognises that government engages with and
adopts global rules and regulations. This leads to (i) significant
initial economic growth, (ii) some improvement in social
development and (iii) some dissolution of national identity and
self-determination.
• S&T developments are focused on international trends with
pockets of excellence, an inability to build on indigenous
knowledge and a failure to address local social development
needs.

9. Scenario 4:OurWayistheWay
• This depicts South Africa’s perceived ability to challenge the
conventional route to globalisation by rallying developing
country support for the creation of a significant South-South
economic bloc.
• This approach results in isolation by the developed world. ‘Our
way is the way’ highlights South Africa’s challenge to
globalisation.
• The industrialised world responds by isolation of South Africa.
• In terms of S&T the outcome is the strengthening of the local
skills base, a focus on development and promotion of self-
sufficiency. Government invests in technology innovation but
gives less emphasis to a pure science base. Efforts are made to
gather scientific information by all means.

10. Thenature ofinnovation activities
Pre 1994
War production amid technology drought
Anglo-American dominates JSE
CSIR main assignee of US patents
GERD: GDP 1.04%
Post 1994
JSE Top 100 derive ±40% revenue globally
Major owner of JSE securities is foreign (34%)
Patenting is rising, but still low …
Massive leap in registration of trademarks abroad
Permanent research staff numbers static
GERD: GDP 0.76%

11. ResearchOutput :1984 -2014
Source: Web of Science (2015)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Count
Count

12. Whatfactorsexplainthisrise?
Increase in Journal Subsidy
Increase in researcher productivity (# ‘constant’)
Increase in direct incentives to researchers
Increase in Research Chairs
Increase in international co-publication (especially HIV)
Increase in health sciences and social science outputs (HIV)
Increased scope of the Rating System
Increased number of indexed SA publication titles
Increase in perverse behaviour
WHAT HAS BEEN THE DIRECT ROLE OF POLICY IN THIS???????

13. CommentsonDHETproposals
Uniform subsidy payment for journals
Continues to discourage collaboration, especially beyond HE
walls and internationally
Books are to be over-rewarded
Perverse behaviours will be reinforced
Salami slicing will continue
Viva mediocrity
Time to look at research group evaluation?