Prof. Guruprasad, Director - Research at Universal Business School guided students pursuing their MBA from Swiss School of Management (SSM1), Italy and University of Economics (UEMBA2), Bulgaria at Universal Business School, Karjat, Mumbai on predicting the Indian Lok Sabha General Elections 2019.

2. Sr No. Presenters States
1 Bhanu Pratap Solanki Rajasthan, Gujrat, Tamil Nadu
2 Sukhdeep Singh Punjab, Haryana, HP, UK, J&K
3 Prashant Sharma Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal
4 Garima Basal Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur,
Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya
5 Nitya Mishra Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha
6 Akshay Anand Chavan Maharashtra, , Telangana, Andhra Pradesh
7 Nishant Thombre Goa, Karnataka, Kerala
8 Puneet Jain All union territories

3. Over 820
million
voters
Over 15
million
new voters
1 million
polling
booths
8000
candidates
7 phases
39 days
Over 2000
parties
World’s Largest Democratic Election Exercise- Some Facts

4. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
phase1 11/04 phase2 18/04 phase3 23/04 phase4 29/04 phase5 06/05 phase6 12/05 phase7 19/05
91
97
115
71
51
59 59
20
13 14
9 7 7 8
Election schedule
electable seats states

5. General elections are going to be held in India in April to May 2019 to constitute the seventeenth Lok Sabha. 2019 Lok
Sabha poll dates announcement: As it happened
Here’s the phase-wise schedule, the number of seats in each phase and their State-wise break-up:
Phase 1, April 11 91 seats, 20 States
A.P. (all 25), Arunachal Pradesh (2), Assam (5), Bihar (4), Chhattisgarh (1) J&K (2), Maharashtra (7), Manipur (1),
Meghalaya (2), Mizoram (1), Nagaland (1), Odisha (4), Sikkim (1), Telengana (17), Tripura (1), U.P. (8), Uttarakhand (5),
W.B. (2), Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1), Lakshadweep (1)
Phase 2, April 18 97 seats, 13 States
Assam (5), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (3), J&K (2), Karnataka (14) Maharashtra (10), Manipur (1), Odisha (5), T.N. (all 39),
Tripura (1), U.P. (8), West Bengal (3), Puducherry (1)
Phase 3, April 23 115 seats, 14 States
Assam (4), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (7), Gujarat (all 26), Goa (all 2), J&K (1), Karnataka (14), Kerala (all 20), Maharashtra
(14), Odisha (6), U.P. (10), West Bengal (5), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1), Daman and Diu (1)
Phase 4, April 29 71 seats, 9 States
Bihar (5), J&K (1), Jharkhand (3), M.P. (6), Maharashtra (17), Odisha (6), Rajasthan (13), U.P. (13), West Bengal (8)
Phase 5, May 6 51 seats, 7 States
Bihar (5), Jharkhand (4), J&K (2), M.P. (7), Rajasthan (12), U.P. (14), West Bengal (7)
Phase 6, May 12 59 seats, 7 States
Bihar (8), Haryana (10), Jharkhand (4), M.P. (8), U.P. (14), West Bengal (8), NCR (all 7)
Phase 7, May 19 59 seats, 8 States
Bihar (8), Jharkhand (3), M.P. (8), Punjab (all 13), West Bengal (9), Chandigarh (1), U.P. (13), Himachal Pradesh (all 4)
Date of counting: May 23
Source: Election Commission of India

6. 503
428
67 93
464
36
432
0
282
1 9
44
6 4
22946182
171657549
4327298 17986773
106938242
8635554 11325635
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
180000000
200000000
National National National National National National State
Bahujan Samaj Party Bharatiya Janata Party Communist Party of India Communist Party of India
(Marxist)
Indian National Congress Nationalist Congress
Party
Aam Aadmi Party
BSP BJP CPI CPM INC NCP AAP
Party wise performance in 2014
NO OF CONTESTANTS Seats Won Votes by Party
Source: Election Commission of India

7. Key Issues
Key
Issues
Alleged undermining of
Democratic institutions
and processes
Shri Ram temple
Agrarian distress
Citizenship amendment bill
Unemployment
Corruption

8. After results state
assembly elections held
in 2018:
• BJP losses position in
3 key states after
2014 elections
• Total number of
states under BJP
comes down to17
from 20
• Others and left
parties will play a key
role in 2019 elections
in forming the
coalition government

14. Prediction Model

15. The
BJP
Test
Vikas
Political
Expansion
Demonet
ization
Ram
Mandir
Unemplo
yment

16. The Congress Test
Again NaMo vs RaGa face-off

17. The Regional Parties Test
• 'Regional pride’
• 'Gujarati Asmita’
• ‘Mahagathbandhan’
• 'Legend of Biju’

18. Possible
Scenarios
BJP gets more
than 230 seats
BJP gets 200-230
seats
BJP gets less than
200 and Congress
leads a coalition
government
BJP gets less than
200 and Congress
is unable to form a
coalition
government
A national youth
movement opens
the leadership
game completely

19. Possible Scenarios for NDA
Scenario 1
250+ seats
Air strikes on terror camps in
Pakistan to avenge the Pulwama
attack appear to have shifted the
narrative from unemployment and
farm distress and boosted Modi's
image as a strong leader. It could
push BJP's tally to within sniffing
distance of a majority, and along with
the support of allies, see him return
for a second term.

20. Possible Scenarios for NDA
Scenario 2
220-230 seats
Ahead of 2014, there was talk of a
"160 club" inside BJP and outside as
well which believed that Modi's
perceived lack of acceptability will
mean a compromise choice for PM.
This has now been replaced by a
"220 club" that similarly feels current
and potential allies would seek
Modi's replacement. But BJP may
well insist on Modi becoming the PM
or choose to sit in opposition.

21. Possible Scenarios for NDA
Scenario 3
140-160 seats
This will mean Congress and others
having made significant gains. A low
BJP number could set the stage for a
Congress-led government. It will
almost certainly mean BJP sits in the
opposition. It will still command
numbers likely to be more than
Congress. A large block of regional
parties and Congress will, however,
favor proponents of an anti-BJP
coalition.

22. Possible Scenarios for UPA
Scenario 1
210+ seats
This looks a far cry and will
need Congress to get the
better of BJP in big states like
Rajasthan, MP, Maharashtra,
Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and
Gujarat where the two parties
are face to face. This result will
mean Rahul Gandhi could lead
a non-NDA coalition.

23. Possible Scenarios for UPA
Scenario 2
180-210 seats
Congress will still be the
largest non-BJP party by far
and can still stake claim to
leading a coalition
government. This will be
resisted by big regional
players like TMC, RJD and BSP
but other parties like the Left,
RJD, NC and DMK will support
Rahul as PM.

24. Possible Scenarios for UPA
Scenario 3
120-170 seats
This is thin ice as far as the leadership stakes go. This number may well mean a decisive lead for BJP and that may put Congress out of
play. Even otherwise, a pre- or post-poll grouping of regional parties may insist on their own candidate though consensus on this is not
easy.

25. Date published Polling agency Others Lead
NDA UPA
Mar 2019 News Nation 273 133 137 136
Mar 2019 ABP News – C voter 264 141 138 123
Mar 2019 IndiaTV-CNX 285 126 132 159
Mar 2019 Zee 24 Taas 264 165 114 99
Feb 2019 VDP Associates 242 148 153 94
Jan 2019 Times Now-VMR 252 147 144 105
Jan 2019 ABP News -Cvoter 233 167 143 66
Jan 2019 India Today -Karvy 237 166 140 67
Jan 2019 VDP Associates 225 167 150 58
Dec 2018 India Today 257 146 140 111
Dec 2018 ABP News – C Voter 247 171 125 76
Dec 2018 India TV – CNX 281 124 138 157
Nov 2018 ABP News – C Voter 261 119 163 142
Oct 2018 ABP News 276 112 155 164
Aug 2018 India Today- Karvy 281 122 140 159
May 2018 ABP News-CSDS 274 164 105 110
Jan 2018 Republic-CVoter 335 89 119 246
Jan 2018 India Today 309 102 132 207
April–May 2014 General election results 336 60 113 276
Opinion polls

27. Thank You