The West Gulf River Forecast Center provides hydrologic forecasts for a diverse region covering parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana. They use precipitation estimates from multiple sensors, hydrologic models, and expert judgment to issue river forecasts. Their focus has expanded beyond routine forecasts to include impact-driven services like custom graphics and briefings to better inform emergency managers and the public. Future improvements include higher resolution modeling and expanded flood inundation mapping to provide more localized streamflow information.
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Beyond Routine Forecast Services, Gregory Waller
1. Beyond Routine Forecast Services โ
NWS West Gulf River Forecast
Centerโs Approach to Impact
Decision Support
Gregory Waller
Service Coordination Hydrologist
NWS โ West Gulf River Forecast Center
2. NWS Mission
To provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and
warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement
of the national economy.
NWS accomplishes this mission in close collaboration and cooperation
with State, Local, and Other Federal Agencies
3. NWS River Forecast Centers
โข 13 Offices (12 CONUS + 1 Alaska/Pacific)
โข Hydro-geologic boundaries
โ Some modeling of headwaters in Canada/Mexico
(no forecast services)
โข Daily Operations
โ Data collection and quality
control
โ Precipitation and
Hydrologic Forecasts
โข Project Activities
โ New technologies
โ New products
4. The WGRFC Area
Diverse Water Issues
402,000 mi2 total area
87,000 mi2 in MX (Rio Grande headwaters)
320 forecast points, 15 major river systems
Over 65,336 miles of rivers (U.S. only)Snowpack
Water supply
โข Hill Country Hydrology
โข Flash flood threats
โข Rapid river responses
โข Cycles of Flood/Drought
5. WGRFC Demographics
โข 3 - Top 10 Metro areas in the U.S. (DFW Metro, Houston
Metro, Austin/San Antonio Metro)
โข 7 of Top 100 Fastest Growing Counties in the nation*:
Hays, Fort Bend, Comal, Andrews, Montgomery,
Williamson, Kendall
โข 5 โ Top 20 largest cities in the U.S.
โข Approximately 12% of the Texasโ land area is susceptible
to flooding, which makes it the top state for total flood
prone area.
โข There are over 6M people who speak Spanish in Texas.
2M people: Spanish is their only language.
โข Texas projected to double in population over the next 50
years**
โข *U.S. Census Bureau change from 2010 to 2011
โข **State of Texas โ Office of the Demographer (2015)
7. Hydrologic Forecast Process
1. How much rain will reach the
river?
๏ง Rainfall to Runoff Model
2. How fast will water reach the river
gage?
๏ง Unit Hydrograph
3. What about water from upstream
locations?
๏ง Routing
4. Translating water volume into
water height
๏ง Rating Curves
8. The Meteorology
โข Past rainfall
โ Hourly
โ 4km grid
โข Future rainfall
โ 6 hourly
โ Blend of model and human
โ At West Gulf RFC, we routinely use 12 hours of
future rainfall in our hydrologic forecasts (can
extend on rare occasions)
9. What is MPE?
โข Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator
โ Inputs
โข Radar
โข Gauges
โข Satellite
โ Final multi-sensor precipitation product is better than
any single sensor.
โข Goals
โ Reduce spatial inaccuracies and bias errors in rainfall
datasets
โ Produce a quality precipitation dataset for ingest into
National Weather Service (NWS) hydrologic models
10. Precipitation Best Estimate
โข 4km x 4km spatial resolution
โข 1 hour temporal resolution
โข Human quality control of
data inputs
Gauge
Radar
Satellite
Best Estimate (Multi-
sensor Field)
Satellite
11. Precipitation Forecast/QPF
โข 4 km x 4 km spatial resolution
โข 6 hour temporal resolution
โข 72 hours (12 periods) processed
โ RFCs ingest 6-24 hours (1-4 periods)
operationally in hydrologic models
โ Additional periods ingested based on
confidence in forecast
Guidance forecast issued by
National Center
Forecaster at RFC makes
adjustments based on local
expertise
12. The Hydro Model
โข Community Hydrologic Prediction System
โข Hydrologic Model
โ Think โmore math, less physicsโ
โ Has capability of โplugging inโ other models
13. Hydrologic Forecast Process
โข A lot of estimatesโฆ
โ Estimate how much rain gets into the river
โข Rainfall to Runoff
โ Estimate timing (how fast) of runoff to the river gage
โข Unit Hydrograph
โ Estimate how fast any upstream water arrives at the
gage
โข Routing
โ Estimate water flow (we use) into water height (the
public uses)
โข Rating
โข We can modify any/all of the above
16. Precipitation estimates and
forecasts merged into
continuous dataset
Precipitation dataset ingested
into hydrologic model.
Forecasters adjust model
parameters in real time
River forecast issued to
public
Rainfall
Analysis
Hydrologic
Modeling
Forecast
West Gulf River Forecast Center
17. River Forecast Center
Website Features
HEADER: Shows worst current
forecasted flood occurring in the
area โ Tabs cycle through
rainfall and a quick briefing
written daily by hydrologist and
meteorologist
THE MAP: Squares represent
points which forecasts are
available for, triangles are
reservoirs
HYDROGRAPH: Click on any
site to see 3 days of observed
levels and 5 days of forecasted
levels (if a forecast is available)
18. Hydrograph Basics
LOCATION: Of the gage the
forecast is made, AT means the
gage is in the limits of the
town/city, NEAR or NR means
that town/city has the closest
post office
STAGE VS FLOW:
Hydrologists, models, reservoirs
work in flow. Emergency
managers, media, general
public work in
stageโฆsometimes
What is flow or a cubic foot per
second?
A basketball is roughly
a cubic foot, so
20,000cfs is 20,000
basketballs of water
passing the gage
every second.
The USGS measures the flow
and the stage at every gage
and provides a rating curve
linking the two units.
OBSERVED: Last 3 days of
observations from USGS with
the latest observation noted
FORECAST: 5 Day forecast for
site that is updated every 6
hours
19. ACTION
Impact: Water is over the banks and into the flood plain, but not a
threat to structures or roadways. Some action may be required
such as moving farm equipment or increasing awareness
MINOR
Impact: Typically water is impacting areas inside of flood plain which
can vary by location. Some low water crossings covered by water,
agricultural flooding, water approaching public areas (parks, sidewalks
etc.). Areas frequently flooded can expect to be impacted
MODERATE
Impact: Water now reaching areas only impacted by significant rain
events. Structures can be inundated, several roads covered with
water, water may cut off certain areas, widespread agricultural flooding
MAJOR
Impact: Water is near the highest its ever been representing rare
flooding and significant widespread impacts. Most roads will be
covered by water in the area cutting off if not completely flooding
subdivisions, rivers can be several miles wide in areas. Homes and
structures underwater, bridges inundated and in danger of being hit by
debris. Impacts may be greater than ever experienced.
BELOW CRITERIA
Impact: Water is within the banks of the river with no impacts to
the surrounding area. Flow speeds may still be high during rainfall
or releases which could impact recreational activities
20. SoโฆHow Does an Event Unfold
(hopefully)
โข We see a heavy rain event on the horizonโฆ
21. The Event
โข We coordinateโฆ
โ Confidence
โ Amounts
โ Graphics
22. The Event
โข Forecast on a forecast
โข Coordinate some moreโฆ
Past Rainfall
Future Rainfall
23. What Changed in 2015โฆ
โข WGRFC Management overhaul
โ New paradigm ๏ Relevant, Reliable, Responsive
โข IDSS โ Impact Decision Support Services
โ Be the โwaterโ expert
โ Supplemental graphics
โข Donโt lose sight on required duties
24. WGRFC and IDSS โ 2015-2016
โขSpecial images
โขEvent specific
โขCan be used for FB posts or tweets
โขNot GIS based
โขWould like to have GIS skills/shift
โขWork creep ๏ Graphicasts
โขGraphicasts added to existing workload
โข No additional bodies
โขDisplayed on web but can also be
โspecial imageโ
25. WGRFC and IDSS - 2015
Why create these special images?
"Out of everything that was briefed on
the call that is the most valuable piece of
informationโ TX State SOC Manager
These special images were
identified as a โBest
Practiceโ and will now be
shared among our NWS
offices.
27. The Future
โข The National Water Center
โข University of Alabama
โข Bring federal water partners togetherโฆ
28. The Change in Texas
102,000 NHDPlus reach catchments for Texas
Average area 7.1 km2
Average reach length 3 km
The Futureโฆ
NHDPlus reach catchment
Uniquely labeled across nation
โข 15 Forecast Groups
โ 320 Forecast Locations
โ Almost 600 Modeled Watersheds
Nowโฆ
29.
30. Another Tool in the Toolbox
โข Will be able to provide streamflow information at
โintermediateโ points
โข Higher resolution grids
โข Expansion of flood inundation
โข Requires verification and validation
โข Operational this year (2016)
โข http://water.noaa.gov/map
โข Expect full capability with 5 to 10 years