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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Welcome 3 A_Jenkins

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IUKWC Workshop November 2016: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security -
Welcome and Introduction - Alan Jenkins

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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Welcome 3 A_Jenkins

  1. 1. Research Needs and Opportunities for India – UK Water Science Alan Jenkins
  2. 2. BECAUSE: WATER IS FUNDAMENTAL TO HUMANITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT ©iStockPhoto
  3. 3. WATER RESOURCES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL DEMANDS THAT AN INCREASING POPULATION WILL PLACE ON THIS FINITE RESOURCE. WATER AVAILABILITY FOR FOOD, HEALTH AND SANITATION AND INDUSTRY IS FURTHER CONSTRAINED BY POLLUTION. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON EXTREMES (FLOODS AND DROUGHTS). ©iStockPhoto Water security
  4. 4. UK Hydrometric Monitoring
  5. 5. Rainfall data
  6. 6. Water Resource Status – UK River Flows November 2011 December 2015
  7. 7. How to characterise drought? SPI: Standardized Precipitation Index SPEI: Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index SSI: Standardized Streamflow Index SGI: Standardized Groundwater Index Svensson et al. Water Resources Research, forthcoming Standardized Indicators allow us to compare between places and seasons
  8. 8. Understanding drought processes Correlation between winter streamflow and Sea-surface temperatures Understanding drought processes to improve monitoring, modelling and prediction Barker et al. 2016, Hydrol. Earth. Sys. Sci Understanding drought propagation from Precipitation to streamflow Svensson et al. 2016, In prep.
  9. 9. Estimation of the T-year flood in UK CEHFloodEstimation Handbook Design a bridge Size a culvert Plan and assess flood defences https://fehweb.ceh.ac.uk/ WHY? HOW?
  10. 10. Return period of Dec 2015 to Jan 2016 floods Station name Flow (m3/s) Return period Eden at Sheepmount 1700 340 Lune at Caton 1740 150 Tyne at Bywell 1730 140 1700 m3/s Return period  340 years
  11. 11. New climate change guidance Adapting to Climate Change: Advice for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Authorities Environment Agency (updated March 2016) Climate change estimate for peak river flow in Northumbria 2020s 2050s 2080s Lower 5% 5% 10% Central 10% 15% 20% Higher central 15% 20% 25% Upper 20% 30% 50% High++ 20% 35% 65%
  12. 12. Water resources assessment - GWAVA Monthly/daily water discharge Monthly/daily pollutant levels 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Climate Water demand estimation •Abstractions & return flows •Artificial water transfers •Human population •Livestock •Bore-wells •Irrigation & cropping Rainfall runoff model •Elevation & river network •Lakes, reservoirs, wetlands •Vegetation, soil type •Climate Pollutants in surface water •Agriculture •Sewage effluent loading •River bed morphology Water resources availability
  13. 13. GWAVA: outputs Changes in water stress for different Hadley Centre climate models HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS 2020s 2050s > 0.25 < -0.25 HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS 2020s 2050s > 0.25 < -0.25 HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS Increased stress Decreased stress No change 2020s 2050s
  14. 14. LINKING TO ECOLOGY
  15. 15. Hydrological Outlook
  16. 16. Issued on 09.11.2016 using data to the end of October 2016 November2016 Period: From November 2016 Shaded areas show principal aquifers SUMMARY Following an exceptionally dry October across the majority of the UK, the outlook for November is for river flows to be below normal to normal across the UK, with below normal flows more likely in the south and east. Below normal to normal flows are likely to persist across the south and east of the UK over the next three to six months. Groundwater levels are expected to be within the normal range, except in areas of the southern Chalk which are likely to be below normal to normal over the next three months. River flows in the southern and eastern parts of the UK are more likely to be below normal than normal over the next one to three months, whilst over the next three to six months flows are likely to be normal to below normal River flows in the northern and western parts of the UK are likely to be below normal to normal throughout November Groundwater levels in parts of the southern Chalk are likely to be below normal to normal over the next three months UK Hydrological Outlook
  17. 17. Extended flood outlook
  18. 18. COSMOS-UK: our network Currently 31 sites, but plans and funding to expand to 55 sites throughout the UK
  19. 19. Real time soil moisture data
  20. 20. COSMOS India Installation Planned COSMOS operating Design and development of a cosmic ray soil moisture measuring system
  21. 21. Royal Society - Current Hot Topics? Drive to develop the scientific basis on which to base actions to guarantee future water security. • New science to understand the changing earth system (scale??) • New modelling tools to capture the interconnected forcers and threats and their societal implications • Extrapolation of models to data sparse areas • New monitoring systems to warn of critical environmental changes
  22. 22. RS - Pressing Research Needs • More physics-based approaches, incorporating land management, covering the whole flow duration curve and incorporating water quality. • Non-stationarity • Data assimilation techniques for hydrological models
  23. 23. The role of hydro-climate services? • Adapting to change and managing risk – developing the governance mechanisms, management strategies and policy tools needed to reduce the risk of water threats, design adaptive strategies and take advantage of economic opportunities. • Ensuring water futures – people, agriculture and industry globally could face water scarcity by 2050 - Jobs and trade in food and goods rely on access to an adequate supply of water and water-related services

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