1. In 3 out of 5 markets index
values remain above 100 –
positive sentiments about
travelling to Europe dominate!
Russians travel expectations
remain gloomy, a rebound is
not expected in 2016 as Russian
economic struggles continue.
Japanese travel sentiment
stagnates, but 3 in 4
intending to travel to Europe
are repeat visitors.
Travel sentiment to Europe strong in emerging markets
Evolution of travel sentiment to Europe. Index (>100=expansion, <100=decline)
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
January-April 15 May-August 15 September-December 15 January-April 16
China
Brazil
U.S.A
Japan
Russia
The Long-Haul Travel Sentiment Survey & Index captures people’s intention to travel abroad, their motivations
and barriers to travel, as well as key characteristics of their trip. It monitors travel sentiment in five key
extra-European markets: Brazil, China, Japan, the Russian Federation and the USA. The survey is not meant
to quantify prospect demand levels.
More information: www.etc-corporate.org
The findings are brought to you by the European Travel Commission
etc-corporate.org, European Tourism Association etoa.org and Eurail
Group G.I.E. eurailgroup.org, realised by TCI Research
tci-research.com. © European Travel Commission. All rights reserved.
CREATED BY
JBH.CO.UK
Changes in long-haul travel sentiment 2016/2015. Index (>100=expansion, <100=decline)
DESTINATION
EUROPE
Optimistic outlook for long-haul travel from key markets
Long-haul travel markets are a significant source of growth for
European tourism. In 2015, China and the United States were at
the forefront, having contributed positively to Europe’s +5% in
international tourist arrivals. However, what are the expectations
for Europe’s key long-haul markets in the near future?
Measuring travel sentiment sheds light on potential
travellers’ dreams.
For Europe, the future looks promising in the majority of key
markets under scrutiny. Among the highest volume long-haul
markets, Chinese and American respondents are keener to travel to
European destinations than a year ago. But competition is at their
heels. 2016 will show if Europe can reap the positive effects of its
established image and joint marketing efforts in key markets.
Americans continue to benefit
from favourable exchange rates
boosting their intentions to travel
to a European destination.
2 IN 5 US RESPONDENTS
plan to visit Europe in 2016.
68% OF CHINESE
RESPONDENTS have a
European destination
in mind.
Long-Haul Travel Barometer
Edition 1/2016
Brazil
TravelSentimentIndex
China Russia United States Japan
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Long-haul
destinations
Europe Long-haul
destinations
Europe Long-haul
destinations
Europe Long-haul
destinations
Europe Long-haul
destinations
Europe
Where to?
Respondents on a mid-range income (US$ 38.000 to US$ 74.999 a
year) appear to have benefited the most from favourable exchange
rates (Dollar-Euro), motivating them more significantly to select Europe
as their future travel destination. In January 2016, 1 in 3 is seduced
by Europe.
Chinese remain positive despite concerns over a slowing economy.
The sentiment prevails among high income earners (more than
20.000 yuan a month) followed by those in the medium range (9.000 to
20.000 yuan a month). Travel sentiment is highest among respondents
from key metropoles - Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou.
Naturally available disposable income plays a significant role in having the opportunity to invest in long-haul
travel. Throughout the past months, the volatile economic environment has had a significant impact on the
evolution of respondents’ intention to travel in very diverse ways.
1 in 2 Brazilians with a mid-range income
intend to travel to Europe in the first few
months of 2016.
A deepening recession continues to supress travel
sentiment among Russian respondents, predominantly
among low and medium income earners.
1 in 3 affluent Japanese respondents intend
to travel to Europe – a similar level of
interest as last year.
Middleandhighincomegroupsmostinterestedina
triptoEurope
Jan-Apr 15
13%
24%
53%
72%
32%
65%
77%
27%
67%
83%
27%
66%
81%
23%
44%
35%
52%
34%
23%
43%
39%
14%
32%
49%
May-Aug 15 Sep-Dec 15 Jan-Apr 16 Jan-Apr 15 May-Aug 15 Sep-Dec 15 Jan-Apr 16
24%
36%
54%
24%
49%
64%
Sep-Dec 15 Jan-Apr 16
16%
29%
19%
33%
Sep-Dec 15 Jan-Apr 16
10%
29%
37%
8%
25%
36%
Sep-Dec 15 Jan-Apr 16
Brazil
UnitedStates
LOWINCOME
MEDIUMINCOME
HIGHINCOME
RuSSIA JAPAN
CHINA
Do the Paris Attacks have an impact on your travel plans to take a trip to Europe in the next
12 months? (% of respondents)
For the majority of survey respondents the Paris Attacks did not have an impact on their intention to travel to
Europe in the course of 2016. As seen above, travel sentiment to Europe remains positive indicating that
respondents would rather change their destination and activities than cancelling a trip to Europe altogether.
The(perceived)impactoftheParisAttackson
travelsentiment
indicate that the Paris events
on 13 November 2015 are not
effecting their intention to
travel to European destinations
in 2016.
2 IN 3 BRAZILIAN AND
RUSSIAN RESPONDENTS
The results suggest that they
are more likely to consider
Europe’s competitors in 2016
than a year ago.
JAPAN IS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION.
YES
23.9%
NO
68.8%
DON’T KNOW
7.3%
Brazil
RuSSIA
JAPAN
U.S.
DON’T KNOW
10.7%
YES
38.8%
NO
50.5%CHINA
DON’T KNOW
20.3%
YES
63.9%
NO
15.8%
DON’T KNOW
9.6%
YES
35.8%
NO
54.6%
DON’T KNOW
11.3%
YES
26.3%
NO
62.3%
12% 16% 8%4%
0%
0%
5%
3%
26%8%
Concerns over security surge in the wake of negative events in key long-haul markets – but data suggests it
abates quickly. While safety moved to the spotlight, the most prevalent reason not to travel to Europe remains
affordability – stated by 1 in 3 respondents not intending to travel to Europe.
Reassuringtravellersaboutsafetyisstillessential
% of respondents who do not intend to travel to Europe saying that safety is a reason NOT to travel to Europe in 2016
Fears rose after the Charlie Hebdo Shooting (7 January 2015) as well as the Paris Attacks (13 November
2015) but were not perceived as a barrier to a European trip after the calm peak travel season
(May-August). While the events did not deter potential travellers from considering Europe, destinations are
nevertheless called to adequately counter such concerns in their communication strategies.
CHARLIE HEBDO
paris attacks
% of respondents who intend to travel to Europe