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Forecast summary


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Forecast summary

  1. 1. TI News: An information service from Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI)October 27, 2011 U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT FORECASTS CONTINUED STRONG REBOUND IN INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES - 2011-2016The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) projects international travel to the UnitedStates will continue experiencing strong growth through 2016.Visitor volume is expected to increase 6 percent in 2011 and reach 63 million visitorswho stay one or more nights in the United States. This growth would build on the 9percent increase in arrivals in 2010, which resulted in a record 59.7 million visitors.According to the current forecast, the United States would see 5 percent annual growthrates in visitor volume over the 2012-2016 time frame. By 2016 this growth wouldproduce 81 million visitors, a 36 percent increase and an additional 22 million visitorscompared to 2010.All world regions are forecast to grow over the period, ranging from a low for Caribbean(+13%), to a high for Oceania (+85%), South America (+77%), and Asia (+57%). All butone of the top 40 visitor origin countries are forecast to grow from 2010 through 2016(Jamaica is the exception). Countries with the largest forecasted total growthpercentages are China (+274%), Brazil (+135%), Russian Federation (+131%), andArgentina (+70%).The North America world region will account for nearly half (44%) of the total visitorgrowth of 22 million visitors. Asia (+18%), Western Europe (+16%), and South America(+12%) account for the bulk of the remaining 56% of total growth in visitor volumeforecast in 2016 compared to 2010 actual volume.Four countries are expected to account for two-thirds of the projected growth (+62%)from 2010 through 2016, including Canada (31%), Mexico (13%), China (10%), andBrazil (7%). In fact, the expected growth from Canada would be larger than the totalvisitor volume for any other country in 2016 except Mexico.The forecast considers the affect, beginning in 2012, that could result from the nationalmarketing efforts by the new Corporation for Travel Promotion (CTP), established by theTravel Promotion Act of 2009 (TPA). The CTP’s goal is to promote the United States asa premier travel destination to international travelers. Impacts are expected to be
  2. 2. minimal in 2012 and increase as a proportion of normal expected growth through 2014and then decline through 2016.The U.S. travel forecast was prepared by staff in the Department of Commerce/Office ofTravel & Tourism Industries using economic / demographic / social factors, Commercehistorical visitation trends, input from the DOC Commercial Service staff abroad, andother sources. ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAIL AND LINKSForecast Highlights by RegionNorth America: The top two markets generating visitors to the United States – Canadaand Mexico – are forecast to increase in 2011 by 7 percent and 1 percent, respectively,and to grow by 34 and 22 percent, respectively, from 2010 to 2016. Canada’s annualgrowth would build on the 2010 record of 20 million visitors and Mexico’s growth wouldestablish new records beginning in 2013.Europe: Visitors from Europe are expected to increase by 7 percent in 2011, followedby additional slower growth over the next five years. By 2016 arrivals from Europe areprojected to be 32 percent higher than the 2010 total, largely because of anticipatedstrong TPA marketing impacts in the three end years of the forecast period. The othertop European markets are forecast to grow around 2 to 5 percent in 2011. The highestgrowth in Europe will come from Switzerland (+23%), Sweden (+21%), and France(+12%). In contrast, and following a 23 percent decline in 2009 and a 12 percentdecline in 2010, Ireland is forecasted to post an additional decline in 2011 (-3%) andremain essentially flat in visitation through 2016.Asia-Pacific: Asia is projected to generate a visitor increase of 4 percent in 2011. Aftersmaller increases initially, the region is projected to have larger increases over the nextfew years for a total 61 percent increase from 2010 to 2016. Japan, the largest Asianmarket and second-largest overseas market, is forecast to decrease by 3 percent in2011, then change to low growth through 2016. A very high growth rate is expected forChina (37%) in 2011. China is expected to increase a total of 274 percent through2016, by far the highest rate of any country. Oceania is expected to post 17 percentgrowth in 2011, the largest of any region, and grow a total of 85 percent in visitorsthrough 2016. Australia dominates the Oceania region and is projected to grow 18percent in 2011 and 94 percent between 2010 and 2016.South America: South America is projected to increase by 15 percent in 2011, thesecond largest growth rate of any region, and should remain a leader in arrivals growth
  3. 3. rates for the next several years. By 2016 South America will generate nearly 6 millionvisitors, a 77 percent increase compared to 2010. Brazil, the largest source market inthe region, is expected to build on the 2010 record-breaking performance, and increase25 percent in 2011 and produce 1.5 million visitors. By 2016 the United States couldhost a record 2.8 million Brazilian visitors, a 135% increase over 2010. Argentina isforecast to post an increase of 16 percent in 2011 and increase a total of 70 percent by2016. Colombia should have solid growth over the forecast period (+2% to +7%), andgrowth from Venezuela will be large in 2011 (+9%), then is expected to be small eachyear of the forecast through 2016.For more information on the OTTI Travel Forecast, including data tables for the worldregions, data tables for the top 40 visitor origin countries, and justification for eachcountry forecast, including positive and negative factors that might influence travel fromeach country to the United States, please visit: and tourism is the largest services export industry for the United States and hasproduced a trade surplus since 1989. For official information on international travel tothe United States, please visit: ###