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2. 2
2008
Financial
Crisis
Impact
Explained
in
Numbers
Option
Fannie mae & Freddie mac guarantee
90% of all mortgages.
$144.5 Bn moved from money
market to treasury bonds.
Treasury department spent $439.6 Bn
buying bank & car stocks .
Housing prices fell
31.8%.
30 Bn federal guarantee for deal
between JP Morgan Chase &
Bear Stearns.
$182 Bn federal bailout
for AIG.
Unemployment was still above 9%
in 2010.
Source: The Balance 2020
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3. 3
Major Financial Bubble Burst of all Times
Dow Jones
Industrial Average
Losses neared 90% by 1932
1929
Nikkei 225
20-year bear market,
losses hit 82%
1989
Precious Metals
Silver fell
25% in 5 Days
2011
US Housing Market
Homebuilding stocks
lost 90%in value
2005
Bitcoin
Loss of 25% in
just 1 day
2020
Crude Oil
Dropped 77% in
6 months
2008
Precious Metal
Silver fell 66% in
2 months
1980
NASADQ & the
Internet boom
Fell 30% 1 month after record high
2000
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4. 1 Goldman Sachs 2
2 Deutsche Bank 6
3 Morgan Stanley 4
4 Citi 2
5 JP Morgan 1
6 Credit Suisse 7
7 UBS 10
8 Merrill Lynch1 NA
9 Lehman Brothers2 NA
10 Barclays 7
4
Impact
of
the
Great
Recession
on
Investment
Banks
Note: 1Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch in September 2008; 2Lehman filed for bankruptcy and sold it’s investment banking business to
Barclays & Nomura
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Investment Bank
Rank in 2007 Rank in 2020
5. 5
2008
Financial
Crisis
Cost
Total
US$ 1,488B
APRA Tax Cuts
& Spending
US$ 831B
TARP
Bank Bailout
US$ 440B
Bear
Stearns Bailout
US$ 30B
Fannie &
Freddie Bailout
US$ 187B
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6. Key Figures of the Crisis
6
Then: US
Treasury Secretary
Now: Chairman of Paulson
institute, a think tank he set
up at the University of
Chicago in 2011
Hank Paulson
Then: Chairman,
Federal Reserve
Now: Senior advisor to
Citadel, a hedge fund
Ben Bernanke
Then: President, Federal Reserve
bank of New
York, and later,
treasury secretary
Now: President
Warburg Pincus
Timothy Geithner
Then: Chairman & CEO, JP
Morgan Chase & Co
Now: Same
Jamie Dimon
Then: Chairman & CEO,
Merrill Lynch
Now: Member of
Supervisory board,
Deutsche bank AG
John Thain
Then: Chairman & CEO,
Lehman Brothers Holdings
Now: Founder, Chairman & CEO
Matrix
Investment Management
Richard Fuld
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7. 7
Before
the
Beginning
In 2001, the U.S. economy underwent a minor, short-lived recession.
Although the U.S. economy nicely withstood terrorist attacks, the bust of the dot-com
bubble and accounting scandals, the fear of recession was the top concern for everyone.
To keep recession away, the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal funds rate 11 times - from 6.5% in May 2000 to
1.75% in December 2001 - creating enormous liquidity in the economy.
To make things merrier, in October 2004, SEC relaxed the net capital requirement for five investment banks - Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman
Brothers, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley - which freed them to leverage up to 30-times or even 40-times their initial investment.
This easy and excess money found its prey in restless bankers and borrowers with little or no income; also referred as Subprime borrowers
(Explained in Appendix).
These subprime borrowers wanted to realize their life's dream of
acquiring a home.
More home loans, more home buyers, more appreciation in
home prices.
It wasn't long before things started to move just as the cheap money
wanted them to.
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8. 8
What Happened then?
Even this wasn’t enough, what
was going to happen next
worsened the situation.
This environment of easy
credit and the upward spiral of
home prices made
investments in higher yielding
subprime mortgages look like
a new rush for gold.
The mortgage lenders wanted more
money to lend to homebuyers, so
they sold their existing loans to
banks and to Freddie mac and Fannie
may, which in turn sold these to
investment banks.
This environment of easy
credit and the upward spiral of
home prices made
investments in higher yielding
subprime mortgages look like
a new rush for gold.
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9. The investment banks combined these loans with hundreds of others
into what are known as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) (Explained
in Appendix) and sold these to investors worldwide as mortgage-backed
securities (MBS)
01
CDO issuance hit $634 billion in
2007
03
The returns depended on monthly payments on
the loans 02
Credit Rating agencies called these sound
investments, when they were not. No surprise there,
as the investment banks were their clients
04
9
How did it spread?
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10. How did those who Bought CDO Protect themselves?
10
This is where another infamous term from the
crisis comes in: credit default swaps.
Insurance companies used these
instruments to cover investors’ losses if
homebuyers defaulted on loans.
No one expected the party to
wind down and so there were
no worries.
They thought an insurance
product called credit default
swaps protected them.
A traditional insurance company known as the
American international group (AIG) sold these
swaps. When the derivatives lost value, AIG didn't
have enough cash flow to honor all the swaps.
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11. Beginning of the End
11
Housing prices started falling in 2006 and homebuyers
began defaulting on their loans, which meant insurance
companies couldn’t honour all their credit default swaps.
Within a few weeks in September 2008,
Lehman Brothers, one of the world’s biggest
financial institutions, went bankrupt.
£90bn was wiped off the value of Britain’s
biggest companies in a single day.
The Federal Reserve began pumping liquidity into the banking
system via the Term Auction Facility.
But that wasn't enough.
As a result, interbank borrowing costs, LIBOR, rose.
This mistrust within the banking community was the
primary cause of the 2008 financial crisis
Banks panicked when they realized they would have to
absorb the losses. They stopped lending to each other.
They didn't want other banks giving them worthless
mortgages as collateral.
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12. 12
Subprime
Effect
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UK
France
Belgium
USA
China
Australia
Netherlands
Germany
13. 13
Major Bailout Packages
Bear stearns approached JP morgan chase to bail
it out. The fed had to sweeten the deal with a $30
billion guarantee. By 2012, the fed had received
full payment for its loan.
The Fed loaned $85 billion to AIG as a bailout. Later,
the Fed and Treasury restructured the bailout and total
cost ballooned to $182 billion. But by 2012, the
government made a $22.7 billion profit
Treasury Secretary took over mortgage companies
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac costing $187 billion at
the time. Since then, Treasury has made enough in
profits to pay off the cost.
TARP (Troubled Asset Relief
Fund) disbursed $442.6 Bn to
banks for bailout.
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14. Penalties paid by banks between 2009 & 2016 is $321 Bn
63%
European
Banks
37%
Recipients of Penalties
Sales
6%
Consumers
56% North
American Regulators
38% European
Regulators
14
Banks
have
Paid
Billions
of
Dollars
in
Fine
North
American Banks
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15. After a Decade – Current Scenario
15
While the world economy has recovered from the crisis and the Dow jones industrial average has risen nearly
four times since its 12-year low in march 2009, big worries remain:
S&P, Fitch and Moody’s are still dominant players, earning more than $9 out of every $10 in the credit-rating industry
Top 10 commercial banks still account for more than half of the assets held by 100 largest commercial banks, similar to a decade ago
Some complex derivative instruments vilified during the crisis are back in demand. For instance, synthetic CDOs, which invest in CDSs, were
expected to quadruple to $100 bn in 2017 from 2015
US President Donald Trump wants to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, a key law passed in
2010 to tighten financial regulation in the aftermath of the crisis
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16. 16
Fed Tapering
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01
Tapering is the gradual
reversal of a quantitative
easing policy implemented by
a central bank to stimulate
economic growth
Tapering came to the picture
in 2013 when, then Fed
chairman,
Ben Bernanke commented
that the Federal
Reserve would .
04
Tapering refers to the
reduction,
not the elimination, of Fed
asset purchases.
02
Tapering prematurely can
lead to a recession while
delaying it could lead to an
unwelcome rise in inflation.
03
17. 17
Quantitative Easing
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A central bank can implement
quantitative easing by
purchasing government bonds
from commercial banks and
other private institutions, which
should lower short-term
interest rates and increase the
capital available to institutions
to promote increased lending
and liquidity.
Quantitative easing
increases the money
supply by flooding financial
institutions with capital in
an effort to promote
increased lending and
liquidity.
Quantitative easing is an
unconventional monetary
policy in which a central
bank purchases government
securities or other securities
from the market in order to
lower interest rates and
increase the money supply.
Quantitative easing is
considered when short-term
interest rates are at or
approaching zero, and does
not involve the printing of
new banknotes.
19. 01. Clustered Column-Line
02. Bar Chart
03. Our Vision Mission Goal
04. Venn Diagram
05. Timeline Process
06. Comparison
07. Idea Generation
08. SWOT Analysis
09. Thanks for Watching!
19
Additional Slides
20. Clustered Column-Line
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Financial Year
Product 02
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Product 03
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21. Bar Chart
21
20
28
40
60
45
42
62
85
65
50
85
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Unit Count
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22. 22
Our Vision Mission Goal
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Our Mission
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Our Vision
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Our Goal
23. Venn Diagram
23
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03
01
02
24. Timeline Process
24
2017
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2019
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2016
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2018
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2020
25. Facebook
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30%
Users
Instagram Users
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70%
Comparison
25
26. Idea Generation
26
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27. SWOT Analysis
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