The 2007-2008 global financial crisis resulted from the collapse of the US housing bubble and loose lending practices, especially subprime mortgages. Housing prices rose sharply in the early 2000s due to low interest rates and high demand. When borrowers began defaulting in large numbers in 2006-2007 due to adjustable rate mortgages, banks and financial institutions that were invested in mortgage-backed securities suffered huge losses. This led to a liquidity crisis and credit crunch. The crisis had severe economic impacts, including stock market declines, high unemployment, and recession in the US and Europe.
2. The 2007–2012 financial crisis, also known as the Global
Financial Crisis and 2008 financial crisis.
It resulted in the threat of total collapse from large financial
institutions, the bailout of banks by national governments, and
downturns in stock markets around the world.
In many areas, the housing market also suffered, resulting
in evictions, foreclosures and prolonged unemployment.
The crisis played a significant role in the failure of key
businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in trillions
of US dollars, and a downturn in economic activity leading to
the 2008–2012 global recession and thus contributing to
the European sovereign-debt crisis.
11/12/2022 2
3. The immediate cause or trigger of the crisis was the bursting of
the United States housing bubble which peaked in approximately
2005–2006.
The key causes leading to crisis can be listed as :
Housing price increase during 2000-2005, followed by a levelling off and
price decline
The bailout of banks by national government
Increase in the default and foreclosure rates beginning in the second half of
2006
Collapse of major investment banks by 2008
Avoided investigations of GSEs
2008 collapse of stock prices
11/12/2022 3
4. The US Federal Reserve – to
get economy out of recession
(IT bubble burst-2000) -- cut
interest rates,
Large Increase in money
supply & Liquidity with banks
----(cheap credit availability )
Increased housing & real
estate prices (low interest
rates, excess liquidity --
lending for houses quite
attractive)
Banks provided Sub-prime &
Ninja loans…..!!!!.
…….housing prices rising &
rising…………
During Housing & credit
booms… oversupply is there–
- [no. of CDO (MBS) investors
throughout the world greatly
increased…..]
As housing prices declined,
sub-prime households
started defaulting in making
their installments
Banks as well as CDO
investors suffered heavy
losses.. .. Leading to ‘Liquidity
Crunch’…
Financial investment
institutions went bankrupt &
lacked liquidity…. Leading to
‘Credit Crunch’
Consumption demand and
investment adversely
affected……..
Hence, The Slowdown in ECONOMIC
GROWTH….!!!!
.
11/12/2022 4
5. SUB PRIME LENDING :
Intense competition between mortgage lenders for
revenue and market shares, and the limited supply of
creditworthy borrowers, caused mortgage lenders (i.e. pvt.
securitizers) to relax underwriting standards and proliferate
risky mortgages to less creditworthy borrowers.
Subprime mortgages remained below 10% of all mortgage
originations until 2004, when they spiked to nearly 20%
and remained there through the 2005–2006 peak of
the United States housing bubble.
11/12/2022 5
6. .
Source: US Census Bureau, Harvard University, State of Nation’s Housing Report ,2008
11/12/2022 6
7. Between 1997 and 2006, the price of the typical American
house increased by 124%.
During the two decades ending in 2001, the national median
home price ranged from 2.9 to 3.1 times median household
income.
This ratio rose to 4.0 in 2004, and 4.6 in 2006.This housing
bubble resulted in many homeowners refinancing their
homes at lower interest rates, or financing consumer
spending by taking out second mortgages secured by the
price appreciation.
11/12/2022 7
9. EASY CREDIT CONDITIONS:
Lower interest rates encouraged borrowing. From 2000 to 2003,
the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target from 6.5%
to 1.0%.
This was done to soften the effects of the collapse of the dot-com
bubble and the September 2001 terrorist attacks, as well as to
combat a perceived risk of deflation.
Additional downward pressure on interest rates was created by
the high and rising U.S. current account deficit, which peaked along
with the housing bubble in 2006.
11/12/2022 9
10. Weak and fraudulent underwriting practices
Predatory lending
Increased debt burden or over-leveraging
Financial innovation and complexity
Incorrect pricing of risk
Boom and collapse of the shadow banking system
11/12/2022 10
11. Financial institutions:
The first notable event signaling a possible financial crisis, occurred
in the United Kingdom on August 7, 2007 when BNP Paribas, citing
"a complete evaporation of liquidity", blocked withdrawals from
three hedge funds.
The significance of this event was not immediately recognized but
soon led to a panic as investors and savers attempted to liquidate
assets deposited in highly-leveraged financial institutions.
The financial institution crisis hit its peak in September and October
2008.
11/12/2022 11
12. Several major institutions either failed, were acquired
under duress, or were subject to government takeover.
These included Lehman Brothers , Merrill Lynch ,
Fannie Mae , Freddie Mac , Washington Mutual,
Wachovia , Citigroup and American International Group
. (AIG).
11/12/2022 12
13. Mounting subprime losses; paniced financial markets and
sucked out liquidity from the market led to the demise of the
top five investment banks / financial intermediaries of
“The Wall Street” .
11/12/2022 13
14. US STOCK MARKET :
The US stock market peaked in October 2007, when
the Dow Jones Industrial Average index exceeded 14,000
points.
- It then entered a pronounced decline, which
accelerated markedly in October 2008.
- By March 2009, the Dow Jones average had reached a
trough of around 6,600. It has since recovered much of
the decline, exceeding 12,000 during most of 2011, and
occasionally reaching 13,000 in 2012.
11/12/2022 14
15. rev200902
The Economic Crisis of 2008: Cause
and Aftermath
Sli
de
15
of
31
As of mid-December of 2008, stock returns were
down by 37 percent since the beginning of the year.
This is nearly twice the magnitude of any year since
1950.
This collapse eroded the wealth and endangered the
retirement savings of many Americans.
S and P 500 Total Return
Source: www.standardpoors.com
1
9
5
0
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
7
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
16. THE SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM :
Economist Paul Krugman and U.S.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner explain the credit crisis
via the implosion of the shadow banking system
“ Without the ability to obtain investor
funds in exchange for most types of mortgage-backed
securities or asset-backed commercial paper, investment
banks and other entities in the shadow banking system could
not provide funds to mortgage firms and other corporations.”
This meant that nearly one-third of the U.S. lending
mechanism was frozen and continued to be frozen into June
2009.
11/12/2022 16
17. Wealth effects :
Between June 2007 and November 2008, Americans lost an
estimated average of more than a quarter of their collective
net worth.
By early November 2008, a broad U.S. stock index the S&P
500, was down 45% from its 2007 high.
Housing prices had dropped 20% from their 2006 peak, with
futures markets signaling a 30–35% potential drop.
11/12/2022 17
18. Total retirement assets, Americans' second-largest
household asset, dropped by 22%, from $10.3 trillion
in 2006 to $8 trillion in mid-2008.
During the same period, savings and investment
assets (apart from retirement savings) lost $1.2 trillion
and pension assets lost $1.3 trillion.
Taken together, these losses total a staggering
$8.3 trillion
11/12/2022 18
19. FIIs had invested on a massive scale in the
equity shares of several indian companies;
thus, due to this the share prices rose to new
heights…
Year Sensex Points
2004 6000 mark
2005 8000 mark
2006 10000 mark
2007 13000 mark
2008 21000 mark
11/12/2022 19
20. Around this time , US & European markets crashed..!!
The share prices started falling sharply…& problems of liquidity & credit
crunch assumed grave proportions.
FIIs to meet the liquidity requirements of their parent companies started
selling shares of indian companies in order to pull out capital from
India…..and the results were…..
Upto Nov 2008, FIIs sold more than $13 billion worth of indian shares…
thus, depreciating rupee against dollars..!
Year Sensex
Jan. 2008 21000 points
Sept. 2008 11000 points
Oct. 2008 10000 points
Nov. 2008 9000 points
11/12/2022 20
21. Avoid these policies:
◦ Monetary contraction
◦ Trade restrictions
◦ Tax increases
◦ Constant changes in policy; this merely creates uncertainty and delays
private sector recovery.
11/12/2022 21
22. It will take time for the mal investments to be
corrected and for households to improve their
personal financial situation.
Danger: Frequent policy changes will retard
recovery.
11/12/2022 22
23. 1. The keys to sound policy are :
well-defined property rights,
monetary and price stability,
open markets,
low taxes,
control of government spending,
neutral treatment of both people and enterprises.
2. It should be announced and followed that:
i. The mistakes of the 1930s will not be repeated, including the
uncertainty generated by the frequent policy changes that
characterized the New Deal.
ii.In the future, government spending will be controlled and the
deficit be reduced.
11/12/2022 23